Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2014/2015

[neige57]

just take a look at the lastest gfs runs!!!some beautifully looking cold charts 10 days from now!!!

 

It is even a sudden change in the latter GFS definitely a connection with the fall of solar activity since 2192 sunspot is gone. We know that a quiet sun influences the effects of QBO- the stratosphere during a weak El Nino. There is strong reason to be optimistic this winter even if the snow fell over western Russia which is far from catastrophic the contrary

 

http://www.solarham.net/xray.htm

Edited October 31, 2014 by neige57

[bluearmy]

Saw it ed and even wrote about at the end of my earlier post but decided, having looked back at the day 10 charts from ten days ago that it would be gone by tomorrow so deleted it before i posted.

 

the models still keeping the vortex split through week 2 - could be a self purpatuating pattern via feedback loops ??

[joggs]

Thanks for the replys and keep up the good work,cheers.

[Skin]

Looks like all the AAM and Mountain Torque data had a seizure. 

 

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/aam.90day.total.shtml  

 

Mountain Torque:

 

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/reanalysis/aam_total/gltaum.90day.png

[bluearmy]

Up top gfs week 2 forecast warming beginning to look interesting to say the least. it appears to be quite sustained and appears to down well fairly effectively. let's see if those much warmer temps begin to make it towards T300. So far they haven't.

ECM retains it's week 2 trop breaking wave 2 into the lower strat although again, we want to see that getting closer in timeframe. All in all, the strat vortex , remains under some pressure in its attempts to organise. Tomorrow's, Berlin update will see the graphical charts in use for the first time. That should be a reminder how early in the season we are.

If you were going to take any inference from the start to the 'campaign' , it would be the general trend for the vortex to remain on the Asian side with ridging evident on the American.

[phil nw.]

Looking at the GFS 06z Stratosphere charts shows the lower level warm anomalies forecasted over the next 10 days on the Conus/Pacific side.These at t240hrs.

 

 

which underline the strength of the 500hPa heights,especially over that side,which appear to be a regular feature so far this Autumn.

Early signs of tropospheric upwelling  of warmer air but not enough to disturb the vortex to any great extent yet.

However as others have suggested promising indications so far-maybe a chance of a Canadian warming?

Edited November 1, 2014 by phil nw.

[sebastiaan1973]

This is a chart of the average november 70 mb of the 15 negative AO winters. Relatively warm in eastern Siberia. Thanks to American Weather.

[neige57]

In any case, the polar vortex is seen to be disturbed medium term, continuing October

 

 

 

What huge difference compared to the same period in 2013

 

 

[chionomaniac]

Doors are open:

 

http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/ts.php?plot=all&alert=1&lng=eng

[neige57]

wow, ECMWF pulls no punches this morning with a weak polar vortex completely

 

 

 

Further increase in wave 1 am in the medium term, a good sign

 

Edited November 2, 2014 by neige57

[chionomaniac]

Saw it ed and even wrote about at the end of my earlier post but decided, having looked back at the day 10 charts from ten days ago that it would be gone by tomorrow so deleted it before i posted.

 

the models still keeping the vortex split through week 2 - could be a self purpatuating pattern via feedback loops ??

The main thing today is the tropospheric led wave 2 activity still present in the lower strat around day 10. This is not strong enough to fully split the vortex, but it gives us the tropospheric -AO indicated by the negative mean zonal winds as indicated below. That is one very unhappy lower vortex.

 

 

 

Keeps the interest alive at the start of the season.

[bluearmy]

The main thing today is the tropospheric led wave 2 activity still present in the lower strat around day 10. This is not strong enough to fully split the vortex, but it gives us the tropospheric -AO indicated by the negative mean zonal winds as indicated below. That is one very unhappy lower vortex.

 

 

ecmwfzm_u_f240.gif

 

Keeps the interest alive at the start of the season.

shouldn't we be very cautious re post day 7 charts which are a consequence of trop activity? or are we seeing consequences of things that have occurred within a reliable timeframe?

[neige57]

shouldn't we be very cautious re post day 7 charts which are a consequence of trop activity? or are we seeing consequences of things that have occurred within a reliable timeframe?

 

I think it would be reliable even if we must always be careful. But the parameters as the strong negative QBO, El Nino and low current low solar activity (solar flux below 120) are in favor of a regular hot stratosphere

[chionomaniac]

shouldn't we be very cautious re post day 7 charts which are a consequence of trop activity? or are we seeing consequences of things that have occurred within a reliable timeframe?

Yes we should - my discussion always contains a lot of self caution, but the evidence is strong that we will see that disrupted trop vortex -  I would term the November outlook as a modified high SAI November outlook. Note that the forecast anomaly charts have 3 of the requirements: - Atlantic trough towards the UK, Aleutian trough and Scandi/Russian positive anomaly.

[bluearmy]

Neige - my point being that upper strat charts are far more reliable post day 6 than trop ones. If we are looking at lower strat charts which are a direct consequence of possibly unreliable trop operational runs, then shouldn't we discount them until they come within day 7? If , however, what we are seeing are consequences of trop activity generated before day 7, then that concern becomes less relevant.

[phil nw.]

Another indication of a weaker than normal vortex is the lower mean zonal wind flows- around 10m/s less than normal.

Encouraging signs of the upwelling in the mean 500hPa charts too,those +ve heights showing well this morning.

[snowking]

Just posted about these over on the model output thread too, but thought I would drop them in here too for reference for any keen stratosphere readers.

If you ever wanted a clear example of Cohen's SAI theory in motion, this is it.

SK

[MattH]

ECMWF in particular as you highlight really has the synoptic features in all the right places to make the comparison. The pattern shows up well on this too with GFS agreement...

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_12z/hgtcomp.html

Clearly only forecast charts but still very promising and interesting signs to say the least so early in the season. If these patterns become reality it'll be fascinating to see if wave 1 or 2 activity suddenly increases. A close eye to be kept on the ECMWF strat charts from the Berlin webpage etc.

All early days but definitely some signs that strat vortex is struggling to influence conditions and the polar vortex (tropospheric) remains clearly disorganised as a good number of the 12z GM's highlight but particularly the ECMWF.

Onwards and upwards!...

[MattH]

I'll keep it brief and the let the images do the 'talking' but some very interesting model outputs this morning!...

 

http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/ecmwf50f216.gif

http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/ecmwf70f216.gif

 

http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/ecmwfzm_u_f240.gif

http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/ecmwfzm_ta2_f240.gif

http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/ecmwfzm_ha2_f240.gif

 

https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20141103/00/360/npst30.png

 

Somethings 'brewing'...

 

Matt.

[chionomaniac]

I'll keep it brief and the let the images do the 'talking' but some very interesting model outputs this morning!...

 

http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/ecmwf50f216.gif

http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/ecmwf70f216.gif

 

http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/ecmwfzm_u_f240.gif

http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/ecmwfzm_ta2_f240.gif

http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/ecmwfzm_ha2_f240.gif

 

https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20141103/00/360/npst30.png

 

Somethings 'brewing'...

 

Matt.

It's probably not going to give us anything immediately down the line, even if possible wave 2 activity ramps up, but nonetheless good to see. We would much rather see cross polar wave 2 activity from Atlantic to Pacific, rather than Russia to Canada, but this is unfavourable in the present tropospheric teleconnective state as the background Atlantic and Pacific sectors favours troughing.

[Recretos]

Since everybody is at ECMWF, I will go ahead with GEFS and GFS, which are kinda starting to be on the same page regarding that FI calamity in the upper strat.

 

It picks up nicely on the vigorous height/temperature wave1. Keep in mind this is not the regular GEFS, but the the one with the corrected bias, which I have noticed last year is a bit better for strat. than the regular one (which makes sense).

 

 

 

And from a different perspective to show the real wave. 

 

 

But the ensemble mean is of course a bit washed out, since it is a mean of many different calculations. So looking at the control run, it keeps the same spirit, but a bit amplified. 

 

 

 

As far as GFS goes,... It looks really cute in the last few runs to say the least. I don't have a lot of time these days for any bigger posts, so just a few graphics from a different perspective than you are usually used to.

 

 

 

 

 

 

As far as energetics go, the upper strat vortex is pretty much being "eaten" alive. Not looking too good for the poor guy, I must say.

 

  

 

 

Cant have a post about strat modelling without CMC and FNMOC. Both biased in its own way obviously, but keep the idea in place.

 

 

 

 

 

All in all, what to say... Lower wave 2, with a decent upper wave 1 later on... No wonder the vortex seems out of sync. Nothing bad about it tho.  

Its all just forecasts, and FI,...

 

But nonetheless, fun times ahead.

 

Regards.

[radiohead]

06Z GFS

 

[bluearmy]

Ed - is the current wave 2 warmth shown on ECM in the lower strat reflecting the Alaskan ridge?? I think only the initial chart you showed had any ridging in the Greenland area whereas n of Alaska has been consistent.

Looking at where the modelling is settling, an Alaskan ridge delivering cold to the mid States fits with weatherbell's winter thoughts.

Early on in the season but we do tend to see patterns establish and then repeat.

Of course, the current forecast warming high up may have consequences that change things a little.

[chionomaniac]

Ed - is the current wave 2 warmth shown on ECM in the lower strat reflecting the Alaskan ridge?? I think only the initial chart you showed had any ridging in the Greenland area whereas n of Alaska has been consistent.

Looking at where the modelling is settling, an Alaskan ridge delivering cold to the mid States fits with weatherbell's winter thoughts.

Early on in the season but we do tend to see patterns establish and then repeat.

Of course, the current forecast warming high up may have consequences that change things a little.

I would have thought being tropospheric based wave 2 that it would be a combination of both ridges Alaskan and Scand/Russian as shown below from yesterdays 12Z

 

 

It is because of the positioning of these ridges that I am not going out all guns blazing for cold later this month, though I am well aware that the positioning of any HLB's can drift slight and favourable undercuts can occur.

[feb1991blizzard]

Vortex looking a little stretched on the 18z GFS compared to the 12z.

 

12z.

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2014110312&var=HGT&lev=30mb&hour=384

 

 

18z.