Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2014/2015

[bluearmy]

Worth a mention....

Given the height that the ECM ens go up to and that this is an ens mean anomaly, I'd say this is a very important chart as we head through November. we know that the gfs ops are progging a warming of decent magnitude. The mean of 51 runs returning a positive anomaly of 26c means that those ops are well within reason. Given that nearly all of us won't have access to that output, this may be most significant chart that we see this month! (so yes matt, worth a look!)

EDIT: is the 12z gfs op run the first to split the mid/upper strat? Up to 5 mb by end of week 2.

ANSWER: no it isn't - infact the 06z had the split as high as 10mb. Notable IMO.

Also, the 12z gfs moves the parent upper start vortex from the Asian side to the Canadian.

Edited November 5, 2014 by bluearmy

[karyo]

Am i missing something here?

 

The blog is suggesting a weakening of the jetstream and more chance of blocking and colder weather as we head for December thanks to an Asian strat warming.

 

"Nevertheless, it hints that we may progressively see a trend to a weather pattern offering something colder as we move towards December."

It shows the cold in eastern europe with a mild Scandinavia and the UK generally dry with the systems passing to the north of Scotland! That would make last winter look exciting which at least had numerous storms.

[Gael_Force]

It shows the cold in eastern europe with a mild Scandinavia and the UK generally dry with the systems passing to the north of Scotland! That would make last winter look exciting which at least had numerous storms.

 

The Cloud 10 post is about Liam Duttons blog which mentions strat warming - NOT the Accuweather forecast in the next down posting.

[karyo]

The Cloud 10 post is about Liam Duttons blog which mentions strat warming - NOT the Accuweather forecast in the next down posting.

Thanks, I see what you mean. Somehow though when I click the link it opens in the grim Accu weather forecast.

[Don]

Thanks, I see what you mean. Somehow though when I click the link it opens in the grim Accu weather forecast.

I saw the Accuweather one too! Oh well makes sense now.

[Cloud 10]

I should have just linked straight to the blog ,but anyway, back to the strat now.

[feb1991blizzard]

Given the height that the ECM ens go up to and that this is an ens mean anomaly, I'd say this is a very important chart as we head through November. we know that the gfs ops are progging a warming of decent magnitude. The mean of 51 runs returning a positive anomaly of 26c means that those ops are well within reason. Given that nearly all of us won't have access to that output, this may be most significant chart that we see this month! (so yes matt, worth a look!)

EDIT: is the 12z gfs op run the first to split the mid/upper strat? Up to 5 mb by end of week 2.

ANSWER: no it isn't - infact the 06z had the split as high as 10mb. Notable IMO.

Also, the 12z gfs moves the parent upper start vortex from the Asian side to the Canadian.

 

 

 

I have to say the GFS looks (and has done last couple of days) better than the ECM wrt stretching the vortex at 10hpa around the 240 hour mark, I would rather the better charts be on the ECM although of course always baring in mind that the ECM is always yesterdays 12z.

[Duane S.]

Like BA, I'm amazed Matt's earlier post of the ECM ensemble temp anomaly is not receiving more attention. Yes it is D15 output but it appears to be firmly backing up the NCEP op outputs of late, it is a very decent warming at the 10mb level of the Strat and it is worth remembering it is the mean, even more impressive!

Something is definitely afoot, Canadian Warming a possibility?

[feb1991blizzard]

Increase in wave 1 activity forecast for 240 hours.

 

 

 

 

The warming shown on recent GFS runs hopefully starting to come to fruition on the ECM now, heres the 216 and 240 charts.

 

 

 

 

 

[chionomaniac]

Worth a mention....

Just got back after a little (football trip) abroad and this chart catches my eye Matt. That is a significant anomaly and definitely in the realms of Canadian warming. Whether or not we benefit from it tropospherically remains to be seen as CW's don't necessarily produce for us here.

[MattH]

Just got back after a little (football trip) abroad and this chart catches my eye Matt. That is a significant anomaly and definitely in the realms of Canadian warming. Whether or not we benefit from it tropospherically remains to be seen as CW's don't necessarily produce for us here.

 

Welcome back Ed...

 

Must admit I've not seen or reviewed enough examples of CW's to comment either way to be honest, but surely something along those lines, in terms of the event, is better than nothing. From what I know of the CW's, whilst seemingly rare, if do occur in a certain way can produce the goods, but I'll take your word on it for sure, with them not producing the goods here overall as again I've not viewed enough background info to comment really.

 

The ECMWF chart was indeed impressive, hence why I had to mention it here. Even though it was at the far end of the run to see such a strong anom on an ENS mean like that surely, when coupled with the GFS charts, does bring some better support to a sig warming towards mid to late November.

 

On to today and overal the situation continues to improve (bit-by-bit), few charts below that stood out to me this morning...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/gif_files/gfs_t05_nh_f216.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/gif_files/gfs_t05_nh_f240.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/gif_files/gfs_t01_nh_f240.gif

 

http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/ecmwf10f240.gif

http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/ecmwfzm_ha1_f240.gif

http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/ecmwfzm_u_f168.gif

 

http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/ts.php?plot=waves&alert=1&lng=eng

 

The continued signal for a top-down warming remains as strong as ever from the GFS and that hint of something more significantly warm on the 240hr chart from the ECMWF over Asia may well be giving some support to the GFS. The last chart clearly shows a rise in both wave 1 and 2 activity with time, but particularly wave 1. Wave 2 seems to just be loitering in the background, it's there but still not really doing anything significant.

 

Still a waiting game, when is it not, but the continued signs and signals will hopefully continue to develop and progress throughout the remainder of November. Without stating the obvious it's about getting these strong warming signals to as near as to T+0 as possible and hope that the signal doesn't wane. Imagine if that ECMWF anom chart was T+36, I think the 'meteorological champagne glasses' would be over-flowing! Given any other starting points I wouldn't be so upbeat, especially if we were in a +ve QBO phase, for example. But a lot is on our side and even at this stage seems to be having some impact on a vortex that is struggling to get out of 1st and 2nd gear and lets hope it gets no further. 

 

After last year let's hope this winters vortex is annihilated in as big as a way as is possible!

 

Regards, Matt.

[Interitus]

This paper give a good review of some of the features to look out for -

A unique stratospheric warming event in November 2000 - http://mls.jpl.nasa.gov/joe/ManneyEtAl_warming_GRL_2001.pdf

 

The long-range GFS charts support the ECM chart in that something's happening.

Edited November 6, 2014 by Interitus

[Recretos]

That ECM ENS anomaly chart is superb, because it really gives a lot of credit and support for the developing situation, regardless of it being in FI. As long as there is some model consensus, there is hope at least.

 

Not as advanced as ECM, but still the GEFS ensemble support agrees with its European rival.

 

 

Regards

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Just got back after a little (football trip) abroad and this chart catches my eye Matt. That is a significant anomaly and definitely in the realms of Canadian warming. Whether or not we benefit from it troposphericaly remains to be seen as CW's don't necessarily produce for us here.

I looked through the 2009 strat thread a few days back and you were talking a fair bit about the Canadian warming as the risk was there . Although if I'm right in saying the Canadian warnings don't have the same tropospheric response ? I was thinking as long as the warming can work its way down the strat then will it not significantly weaken the vortex over toward Greenland area ?

[bluearmy]

we cant do any historic ecm ens comparisons becasue this is the first time we will have seen a significant upper warming since the ecm ens were extended up to the very top of the strat.  given the models better vertical resolution at that level, i am more inclined to weigh its week 2 output ahead of GEFS.

[snowking]

This paper give a good review of some of the features to look out for -

A unique stratospheric warming event in November 2000 - http://mls.jpl.nasa.gov/joe/ManneyEtAl_warming_GRL_2001.pdf

 

The long-range GFS charts support the ECM chart in that something's happening.

Might just be me but I can't get that link to work for some reason, just get taken to a 404 page

Regards,

SK

[Interitus]

Might just be me but I can't get that link to work for some reason, just get taken to a 404 page

Regards,

SK

 

Strange, try this one instead - http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2001GL012973/pdf

[snowking]

Strange, try this one instead - http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2001GL012973/pdf

That's got it!

Many thanks

SK

[bluearmy]

One wonders what the metoffice strat model is showing. If we see no changes in the tone of the 30 dayer with some caveats for possible colder conditions latwr on, then we can assume that this upcoming event will not impact on nw Europe within the next four weeks. It is inconceivable that it isn't appearing on the model.

[SMU]

we cant do any historic ecm ens comparisons becasue this is the first time we will have seen a significant upper warming since the ecm ens were extended up to the very top of the strat.  given the models better vertical resolution at that level, i am more inclined to weigh its week 2 output ahead of GEFS.

 

Hi BA-

 

these warmings are expected. Its the final part of my forecast.

 

Look at all the Sub -1.5 OPI years.

Edited November 6, 2014 by Steve Murr

[lorenzo]

If I recall correctly the lead time for SSW at the Met Office is 14 days, I read a paper last week discussing the evolution and improvement of various lead times. This time frame was related to an email sent out by Adam Scaife during last winter re: January.

 

Interestingly, the Royal Met Soc have a meeting in plan for January on Strat-trop interactions, could be amazing timing given the pre-conditioning happening at present to our winter foe.

 

http://www.rmets.org/events/stratosphere-troposphere-coupling-earth-system-where-next

[Recretos]

 

 given the models better vertical resolution at that level, i am more inclined to weigh its week 2 output ahead of GEFS.

 

I agree. Any model with better vertical resolution and higher model top, is preferred. Tho GEFS is not really that bad, or it was not that bad last season, it has a bit of a problem since it is topped at 2mb. But we will see how it will handle this situation with more dynamics. So far it follows the main trends and also that of the ECMWF. I look at it nonetheless, since it is the best ensemble for strat, that is freely and easy available. If everything goes as planned, and it gets a resolution upgrade, it will be topped at 0.1mb and will have 64 vertical layers, which will be quite an upgrade strat-wise and it will be a totally viable stratospheric ensemble model.

[bluearmy]

I agree. Any model with better vertical resolution and higher model top, is preferred. Tho GEFS is not really that bad, or it was not that bad last season, it has a bit of a problem since it is topped at 2mb. But we will see how it will handle this situation with more dynamics. So far it follows the main trends and also that of the ECMWF. I look at it nonetheless, since it is the best ensemble for strat, that is freely and easy available. If everything goes as planned, and it gets a resolution upgrade, it will be topped at 0.1mb and will have 64 vertical layers, which will be quite an upgrade strat-wise and it will be a totally viable stratospheric ensemble model.

 

is that GEFS upgrade due to implement mid dec recretos ?

[Recretos]

For now it is, yes.

[radiohead]

Some of the changes in GSM V12.0 (currently running in parallel, due to be implemented Dec 19th) which could help with strat forecasts :

 

• Hermite interpolation in the vertical to reduce stratospheric temperature cold bias
• Divergence damping in the stratosphere to reduce noise
• Retuned orographic gravity-wave forcing and mountain block