Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2014/2015

[Tyfelin]

Hi guys. I'm struggling to interpret the Wave 1 and 2 charts as posted by Matt and Recretos. They're charting some function of the wave in space (geopotential surface x latitude), but it can't be simple amplitude, or you wouldn't need the third set of coordinates, represented by the colour. If this is written down someplace, just point me?

Tyfelin

[Crocodile23]

CW event has a chance to develop in one of two windows but Recretos' possible double MT event has me very unsure now.

 

 

What is CV, double MT and single MT means?

Sorry if this had been explained earlier in this topic.

[Northern Sky]

What is CV, double MT and single MT means?

Sorry if this had been explained earlier in this topic.

I think CW  = Canadian Warming and MT is Mountain Torque

[Recretos]

Hi guys. I'm struggling to interpret the Wave 1 and 2 charts as posted by Matt and Recretos. They're charting some function of the wave in space (geopotential surface x latitude), but it can't be simple amplitude, or you wouldn't need the third set of coordinates, represented by the colour. If this is written down someplace, just point me?

Tyfelin

 

I dont know for others, but I have made a few posts so far regarding the shear "theory" part. Gonna post links to posts if anyone else is interested about the waves.

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78161-stratosphere-temperature-watch-20132014/?p=2862051

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78161-stratosphere-temperature-watch-20132014/?p=2872515

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78161-stratosphere-temperature-watch-20132014/?p=2906328

 

Now I was toying around with wave plots too, and lets just say that even tho I cannot go into specific functions and coding, I did manage to plot simple wave amps, tho it is not the same function as we look at FU Berlin. I wont go in to methods, but lets just say that the first graphic present wave amp focused on 10mb wave 1. And the second plot shows the 10mb wave 1 relative to the zonal mean geopotential height, which is kinda more realistic and closer to the real deal. And some wave 2 experiments. Just some experimenting basically. 

 

  

 

I will try to experiment with this a bit more in the future. 

 

Regards

Edited November 12, 2014 by Recretos

[bluearmy]

post day 10 gfs strat output is relocating the vortex to the canadian side - greenland locale. wonder if this will actually verify. seems consistent.

 

the warming at 10hpa in fi is also lsoing some intensity at the end of week 2 and on the op is headed towards pacific whils the parallel retains more intensity and still over asia.

 

the intensity at the very top is maintained. i wonder if the ecm ens are still as bullish as a few days ago?

[MR EXTREMES]

be interesting to see ba as the ecm has already back tracked massively in the model outputs.

and the gfs has really held its own just recently.

[Recretos]

Not much to add. 

 

 

 

,

[bluearmy]

would be nice to think the parallel was more trustworthy high up than the op. those are pretty spunky charts

[Barry12]

Not much to add. 

 

 

 

,

 

Is that good or bad?

[KyleHenry]

Is that good or bad?

It's neither. It's a trace signal of possible wave activity from the GFS para for 16 days away.

So it should be taken cautiously but with significant interest in watching if it develops into reality. Caution required until it's within 7 day limit.

With all the possible factors in play these next 4 weeks is lining up to be a very special phase in the stratosphere.

Edited November 12, 2014 by KyleHenry

[DAVID SNOW]

Is that good or bad?

 

Who knows, its the GFS@384 hours. I   remember last 'winter'  and the good strat charts were always at 384 hours GFS or 240 hours ECM and they never got any closer.... I do hope this winter is very different.

[Snowy L]

What's everyone's thoughts on the likelyhood and timing of a possible major warming? With the ENSO heading towards an El Nino phase, the easterly QBO and the relatively low solar flux I would hazard a guess at a Christmas SSW.

[Tyfelin]

Hi Recretos,

Thanks for going to that trouble. Those earlier graphics paint a vivid picture of wave 1 and 2. There's lot to pore over there, infant.

I can quite easily visualise the wave(s) when represented by the height of a geopotential surface distributed in space. It was specifically the FU Berlin Mean Zonal Wind charts for Wave 1 and 2 that I was perplexed by. What does the shading indicate? What are the units highlighted?

Sorry guys. Probably a dumb question. First in a long and illustrious line of such, no doubt.

Tyfelin

[Duane S.]

A stark reminder of how bad things looked 11 months ago from one of the links posted above by Recretos

A W-QBO and a just a bit of a breeze blowing at the top levels!!! I think it got even stronger still at some point as well.

I'm not saying we won't see the zonal winds pipe up for periods as we head deeper into winter, we will of course, but I'm very hopeful we won't see the likes of >40ms winds at the 30mb level too many times because of the QBO phase.

[Banbury]

'If' a SSW does occur what are peoples opinion of timescale of any cold hitting the UK?? I have heard different timescales mentioned .

[MattH]

Just when you think the ECMWF ouput is as good as it gets, for now at least, it goes and gets even better and better!...How about a split (just) even up to 5hpa?...

Without question an impressive set of charts and the starting point for this split isn't on D10 it begins around D7/D8. Note the reduction in the flow (U60N) on the charts at all levels but equally note no -ve values yet.

Definitely need to contrast and compare (Andrew/Recretos?) the GFS at the same time frames to see whether this was nothing more than a bullish one run from the ECMWF, or whether there is some model agreement.

Certainly all about consistency now but to say something is 'brewing' for late Nov into early Dec is an understatement.

Cheers. Matt

Edited November 13, 2014 by MattHugo

[Recretos]

Matt has beaten me to it again. Nonetheless, ECM ramping it up even further. Sweet stuff. 

 

 

 

 

GFS Para following nicely, while the normal GFS isnt really THAT close to the ECM as the Para run is. I automatically plotted the 240h instead of 228h, but hey, its just 12h difference. The difference is that the 10mb split is not as strongly defined on Para GFS as it is on ECM. But normal GFS is even worse, by keeping the core at 10mb intact, or not splitted and something similar on 30/50mb. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Just plotted the 10/30mb height for the correct time, 228h from 00z Para GFS, and it really is quite on the par with ECM, and much closer than the normal GFS. It has the dominant cores on the same side as the ECM. This situation nicely shows how the new GFS really actually does look to be superior to its older brother, the old GFS, as far as the stratosphere is concerned. It is really close with ECM, and you could say we now have a model that could be at least a decent competition to ECM or at least something to search for model consensus. I gave more strength to the contour lines in these two plots, so the split can be seen a bit better. My graphics have a slightly different angle than the ECM, but not much. Some differences in the output with ECM are generally expected, because it is a different model, and a more fresh run (00z, while ECM is 12z from yesterday). All these PGFS graphics are from the 0.5° grid output. It appears to be weaker in the upper strat, as far as zonal wind goes. 

 

  

 

Well, even GEFS is closer to ECM than the old GFS. I'm really happy for the GEFS.

 

  

 

This time I will not post any FI graphics of the PGFS, for certain reasons. :) But on a side note, it is important to add that it looks like this first real offensive on the vortex will not last that long, or at least not long enough by current projections. 

Regards. 

Edited November 13, 2014 by Recretos

[Duane S.]

Not sure how to add to what Matt and Recretos have already put other than yesterday's ECM Strat output was very easy on the eye!

I get the distinct impression we are looking at a classic waxing and waning wave2 this early-mid winter, increasing in strength.

[Recretos]

And about the QBO topic from the other day, this is how you can easily spot the QBO phase, without the number crunching. Green is the current negative phase, dominating the mid strat (the main area of influence), which is quite strong, an it is obviously way too big to be defined to one level, and especially to 50mb. In the yellow is the "probable" next positive phase in development. 

That is why graphics are sometimes way more practical than raw numbers, since you get the feel of perspective, unless you are going for hardcore details, which in this case would be at 30mb, not 50mb.  

 

Edited November 13, 2014 by Recretos

[snowking]

Not sure how to add to what Matt and Recretos have already put other than yesterday's ECM Strat output was very easy on the eye!

I get the distinct impression we are looking at a classic waxing and waning wave2 this early-mid winter, increasing in strength.

Couldn't have put it any better myself

The only interesting difference is the GEFS is certainly keen to keep more of the vortex energy towards the Siberian sector - a theme I would like to see repeated.

It would be interesting to see some of those WSI ECM EPS charts again today over on Twitter to see if those are still holding firm, but given the output from 12z yesterday one would suspect so.

This is probably unlikely to be the main event but once again is shows what a very different situation we are in to this time last year. Up until now (in what has already been a very successful November stratospherically) we have seen obvious signs of an improved Brewer-Dobson circulation, helping to drive ozone up in to the northern hemisphere, then of course we started seeing the fairly consistent wave 1 activity, the only thing we have been looking to join the party is wave 2....not only has he arrived, but it looks like he's bought snacks and a keg with him too

SK

[chionomaniac]

You bloomin' earlybirds!! Great to see. Difference here between 2009/10 splits is that this appears to be the angle of wave 2 attack - It may still leave a segment of vortex that is Atlantic based - leaving the UK in SWesterlies!

[MattH]

Thanks for the charts and info as per usual Andrew. Having support from the GEFS in particular is impressive. I'll see if I can get an EC ENS vomparison for 240hr.

M

[lorenzo]

You guys get up earlier every day ! Hell, will add in the heat flux chart, don't think it's up yet.

 

Nice set of charts this morning and the third time in less than 20 days there has been an advertised split vortex, that's moving steadily from anomaly to trend. Agree SK time to twitter WSI to see what they have got..

 

[KyleHenry]

You bloomin' earlybirds!! Great to see. Difference here between 2009/10 splits is that this appears to be the angle of wave 2 attack - It may still leave a segment of vortex that is Atlantic based - leaving the UK in SWesterlies!

Chino can you give us all a heads up if you see signs of wave 2 opening a path for a CW event.

Thanks in advance

[Interitus]

You bloomin' earlybirds!! Great to see. Difference here between 2009/10 splits is that this appears to be the angle of wave 2 attack - It may still leave a segment of vortex that is Atlantic based - leaving the UK in SWesterlies!

 

There are some other big differences with 2009/10 regarding the structure of the vortex which may restrict comparison to an extent.

This year like last we have a compact core -http://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/meteorology/figures/merra/pv/mpvwean_850_2014_merra.pdf

the vorticity defining the vortex edge is on the high side - http://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/meteorology/figures/merra/pv/mpvwen_850_2014_merra.pdf

with record high maximum vorticity for this time - http://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/meteorology/figures/merra/pv/mpvmaxn_850_2014_merra.pdf

 

Early season 2009 had a record large vortex core - http://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/meteorology/figures/merra/pv/mpvwean_850_2009_merra.pdf

with weak edge vorticity - http://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/meteorology/figures/merra/pv/mpvwen_850_2009_merra.pdf

and lower than average maximum vorticity - http://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/meteorology/figures/merra/pv/mpvmaxn_850_2009_merra.pdf

 

So 2009/10 was weak and flabby early on, with an SSW in the second half of the winter only after the vortex had managed to strengthen to around normal during mid-winter. From a UK perspective it is perhaps worth noting that the coldest conditions were prior to the SSW.