Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2014/2015

[Catacol]

I notice the solar flux index is moderate at 167 units, Ed indicated in his opening post that readings of 110units or less can increase the likliehood of warmings.

 

Whatever happens in the Stratosphere this Winter, I don't think we'll get much help from the Sun.

 

http://www.wm7d.net/hamradio/solar/index.shtml

 

Yep - the current uptick in solar flux is a concern for me. Archives show that the "good" winters from 2009 onwards were matched to very low solar flux of uner 100. Last winter, at the heart of the horror period, it was up over 200. We are in the region of 160 now - it looked in August as though it was declining - but now it is rising once again. I am unclear just how great an impact solar flux has on the stratosphere and at what levels.... but I'm pretty certain in general terms it is not good!

 

Hoping to see it fall in December....

Edited November 19, 2014 by Catacol_Highlander

[bluearmy]

One in a hurry. 

 

Caught my eye too Andrew. Been waiting to see of the activity higher up would begin to drift down to 10hpa after a relaxation in the T300 timescale. Need to see this repeating and counting down.

Also note the GEFS at the backend now showing much more trop amplification and HLB than recently.

[neige57]

Yep - the current uptick in solar flux is a concern for me. Archives show that the "good" winters from 2009 onwards were matched to very low solar flux of uner 100. Last winter, at the heart of the horror period, it was up over 200. We are in the region of 160 now - it looked in August as though it was declining - but now it is rising once again. I am unclear just how great an impact solar flux has on the stratosphere and at what levels.... but I'm pretty certain in general terms it is not good!

 

Hoping to see it fall in December....

 

In this case, you explain to me why the winters were cold during the winter of 1968/1969 (flux averaged 160) or the winters of 1957/1958 (QBO +) or 1958/1959 (QBO-) with a solar flux around 190 on average. I think most people within this forum have nothing including the role of solar activity. No it is not the solar flux to look out but KP index (currently down as often in this solar cycle 24) because this index is directly related to solar flares. Then the AP index, the most important

 

 

 

Solar flux 167 is currently linked to the only task that remains on the sun, the largest disk and facedown including. In fact, the sun is quiet

 

[mountain shadow]

Fair doos Neige, but I was only going by the opening thread which indicates a greater chance of a strat warming with a measurement below 110.

[Snowy L]

A study has shown a decent correlaion with flux, polar geopotential heights and the QBO. No such link has been found with the AP index. So that's probably why solar flux is discussed more.

[Hocus Pocus]

A study has shown a decent correlaion with flux, polar geopotential heights and the QBO. No such link has been found with the AP index. So that's probably why solar flux is discussed more.

We only have limited data on this I would imagine though?

[neige57]

A study has shown a decent correlaion with flux, polar geopotential heights and the QBO. No such link has been found with the AP index. So that's probably why solar flux is discussed more.

study or not study, it does not work every time. There has been intense warming in the stratosphere for many winters at high solar flux. The solar flux alone can not have a direct impact on the stratosphere, it's just not possible. We must look at all the solar parameters (solar flux index KP, AP, SSN etc) so there is a real impact. There is also the El Nino phenomenon that comes into play. Winters El Nino / QBO- were very often sudden stratospheric warmings despite a very high solar activity

[Catacol]

In this case, you explain to me why the winters were cold during the winter of 1968/1969 (flux averaged 160) or the winters of 1957/1958 (QBO +) or 1958/1959 (QBO-) with a solar flux around 190 on average. I think most people within this forum have nothing including the role of solar activity. No it is not the solar flux to look out but KP index (currently down as often in this solar cycle 24) because this index is directly related to solar flares. Then the AP index, the most important

 

 

OK - I'll freely admit to being out of my depth here.... but my pigeon understanding of this is that solar flux has an impact on ozone production and on radiative heating within the stratosphere. As far as I know (and I'd be glad to be enlightened) the KP or AP index are measurements of the Earth's geomagnetic field. I cant find - at a quick look - any papers linking geomagnetic activity to the state of the stratosphere.

 

I wouldnt dream of starting a major argument on this point - and of course I am not suggesting that solar flux on its own is a definite indicator of stratospheric changes - there are a whole host of other factors that over the last couple of years I have started to try and get my head around.... but as I understand it solar flux IS one factor that can affect the stratosphere, and it is better that flux values be low rather than high. At present solar flux is on the high side compared across the post 2008 period.

Edited November 19, 2014 by Catacol_Highlander

[Nouska]

OK - I'll freely admit to being out of my depth here.... but my pigeon understanding of this is that solar flux has an impact on ozone production and on radiative heating within the stratosphere. As far as I know (and I'd be glad to be enlightened) the KP or AP index are measurements of the Earth's geomagnetic field. I cant find - at a quick look - any papers linking geomagnetic activity to the state of the stratosphere.

 

I wouldnt dream of starting a major argument on this point - and of course I am not suggesting that solar flux on its own is a definite indicator of stratospheric changes - there are a whole host of other factors that over the last couple of years I have started to try and get my head around.... but as I understand it solar flux IS one factor that can affect the stratosphere, and it is better that flux values be low rather than high. At present solar flux is on the high side compared across the post 2008 period.

 

Ongoing research on this subject.

 

 

By studying the effects of magnetic field changes on the climate over the past four centuries, this project contributes to a better quantification of natural sources of atmospheric variability. This is needed to attribute observed climate trends correctly and assess man-made effects on climate more precisely. Both are essential for developing mitigation strategies and for making accurate predictions of future climate. The project also offers a first insight into the effects of magnetic field changes that we can expect in the future. Especially a magnetic field reversal would almost certainly have dramatic consequences for the upper atmosphere and geospace environment, and the technological systems this environment hosts. However, the effects on climate are very hard to predict, as we currently do not know in what ways and to what extent the Earth's magnetic field can affect climate. The proposed project will be a first step in improving our understanding of the link between the Earth's magnetic field and climate.

 

http://gtr.rcuk.ac.uk/project/CBAD3031-B011-4FFF-B839-3095EC5366FB

 

This is also a good read, from a multi-discipline level, of how solar effects can impact different aspects of the climate.

 

http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2013/08jan_sunclimate/

Edited November 19, 2014 by Nouska

[feb1991blizzard]

The troposphere looks very "resistful" for now, also pulling low and some mid strat to its own gameplan. The upper strat and the waves better step up to the game.

 

Yes, to my very untrained eye, I do not see anything strong enough to propagate the Tropopause  and cause any major high latitude blocking for another month at least.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

OK - I'll freely admit to being out of my depth here.... but my pigeon understanding of this is that solar flux has an impact on ozone production and on radiative heating within the stratosphere. As far as I know (and I'd be glad to be enlightened) the KP or AP index are measurements of the Earth's geomagnetic field. I cant find - at a quick look - any papers linking geomagnetic activity to the state of the stratosphere.

 

I wouldnt dream of starting a major argument on this point - and of course I am not suggesting that solar flux on its own is a definite indicator of stratospheric changes - there are a whole host of other factors that over the last couple of years I have started to try and get my head around.... but as I understand it solar flux IS one factor that can affect the stratosphere, and it is better that flux values be low rather than high. At present solar flux is on the high side compared across the post 2008 period.

I think RJS will be able to assist on this

 

BFTP

[lorenzo]

WSI crank out another big strat chart from ECM 12z - way in FI this the 50mb Ens Mean, bear in mind ECM had one of these kicking around at last week also which faded. Now it's back..

 

 

That's a hot spot at 25C, something in that mean is ramping things up.

 

Interesting to see what this Aleutain ridging does in coming runs, this from mid range.

 

Need to keep an eye on what the flux does toward end of Nov, a couple of lively arrows all the way to 50hPa in the last few days.

 

This is where things are starting to get interesting.

 

[KyleHenry]

Yes, to my very untrained eye, I do not see anything strong enough to propagate the Tropopause  and cause any major high latitude blocking for another month at least.

We're in a waiting phase, a very intriguing one at that.

The models are picking up wave 2 and 3 signatures both in the reliable and in FI. Yes experience tells us if it's intermittent the date of the wave can be delayed or fail to materialise.

The signs are there for a possibly very strong wave 2 placement over Europe in the Upper Stratosphere, In the mean time wave 1 continues on and showing in the Troposphere.

http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/winterdiagnostics/index.html

Can't show charts on phone.

Here lies the intrigue with wave 2, and more so the effects of a possible wave 3 being a SSW and where exactly it finds an opening to propagate upwards.

Patience needed but in approximately 12 days time we will know better where we stand.

Henry

[feb1991blizzard]

We're in a waiting phase, a very intriguing one at that.

The models are picking up wave 2 and 3 signatures both in the reliable and in FI. Yes experience tells us if it's intermittent the date of the wave can be delayed or fail to materialise.

The signs are there for a possibly very strong wave 2 placement over Europe in the Upper Stratosphere, In the mean time wave 1 continues on and showing in the Troposphere.

http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/winterdiagnostics/index.html

Can't show charts on phone.

Here lies the intrigue with wave 2, and more so the effects of a possible wave 3 being a SSW and where exactly it finds an opening to propagate upwards.

Patience needed but in approximately 12 days time we will know better where we stand.

Henry

 

Yes, I don't disagree, I am advising people not to get carried away thinking potent cold awaits early December or to get too downhearted for the rest of the winter if we don't get favourable trop charts in the next 2 weeks, patience needed but nothing like the patience we needed last year IMO. I would still prefer a split SSW with a stonking big ridge in between the 2 vortices, it remains to be seen whether in time this will occur.

[Recretos]

Not sure how to describe this, other than "chaos" or "mayhem". As fun and positive as it is, it is kinda starting to be a very slight thing of concern for me. Why? Im glad you asked.

The whole stratosphere looks so badly "disorganized", if you also look at waves and fluxes, that its almost unreal. Its now kinda looking closer to the para GFS.

The upper strat is really weak, and the whole column is out of sync. I would almost wish for the vortex to get a small part of its act together and step up to the game, because what this forecast has is pretty much a mess. The upper strat completely in its own world getting its face smashed in, the mid strat kinda holding as it should, acting like a "surf zone" between upper and lower strat, while the lower strat is getting dominated by the forcing of the trop patterns.

My point is, that in such a state, you perhaps wouldnt have much luck with an SSW, since the downwelling could not be completed when there is nothing to grab onto in the column. Not to mention trop counter forcing. In such a state, all that remains is watching scandi. wave 2 breaking and smashing into low/mid strat.

But hey, these are only forecasts and my speculation. Tho we should perhaps get ready for some scandi wave2 later on as we go on into December, as I was saying in my "mysterious" posts.

Regards.

[Duane S.]

That 10 day u wind chart posted above by Recretos stood out of me as well when going the the latest ECM plots. Strangest profile I think I can remember, other than the omnipresent QBO signature, it is just a total mess. Sort of ties in with some the recent trop charts in that the phrase 'there for the taking' comes to mind...

Again the wave1 activity forecasts are pretty incredible for the time of year and with decent warmings further up to boot, It is still better to keep that upper Strat bombarded even if downward propagation is not really happening. You would have to assume that with a strong easterly QBO, surely that will only be a matter of time before we see some action around the 10mb-30mb area?

Reinforcements may be arriving though as following on from yesterday, EP flux forecast looking quite promising.

So at the moment a little bit frustrating, yes, but at the same time absolutely fascinating!

[Tyfelin]

 

Now for those of you that cant see those "positive points" right away on the graphics above, I have made three new graphics just for you. It is the difference between this year and last year, centred on 27.11 as far as ECM forecasts go and in a relatively good range of skill. It is the difference on this date between this year and last year. Data from this year is based on the Para GFS forecast (it is perhaps a bit different than ECM, but it gives a good general idea nonetheless), and data for last year is based on reanalysis from ECMWF ERA-Interim (accessible from the data portal me and Matt were talking about). It shows nicely just how weaker the mid-upper strat vortex really is, and as far as temperature goes, it has a pretty non-hospitable environment. It looks really cool (no pun intended), at least to me, and its a good indicator how different things are up there. It is interesting to note how the QBO phase also has its own temperature profile.

 

 

Wind-wise, the QBO difference is visible right away, since the phase is different to last year (we are in a QBO-, so that is why the negative difference relative to last year, and the positive above it). The polar jet is quite weaker at this point, because of the wave onslaught. 

 

 

And the geopotential height difference, which also tells its own story of the vortex strength and the wave onslaught. I used the MERRA dataset for this one, because the ECMWF ERA gpm data is not coded in a compatible format with GFS, tho wind and temperature are. With this graphic you kinda get the fell what those wave graphics from FU-Berlin might mean.

Here is also interesting to note how the QBO also has its own geopotential height profile.

 

 

Not to mention that the ECM forecast has an even weaker vortex (slightly) and a warmer wave as the GFS. 

 

I really love playing around with data. Hope you like it. 

 

Regards.

I've pinned them to the fridge. If I just stare at them long enough...

Thanks for the extra help, Recretos. Very much appreciated.

Tyfelin

[MattH]

Burn, burn, burn the timg of fire!...

Sorry, couldn't resist that today. Highest temps so far up at 1hpa and echoing what others have said. It's sort of like waiting like waiting for a bus. You know it'll turn up eventirely it's just a matter of when! The vortex is sort of on the edge of taking a proper beating but, as per said bus, it could take a while to 'arrive'.

No change from me, as you may have guessed from my post the other day. More atlantic spell likely and few weeks to get through yet. Mid to late Dec a focal point...

Cheers. Matt.

[karyo]

I feel a bit concerned after reading the post from Recretos! 

Isn't this what happened in Feb 2009? We had a SSW that never propagated downwards and the norther blocking that we were expecting didn't arrive.

 

Karyo

[Mapantz]

I feel a bit concerned after reading the post from Recretos!

Isn't this what happened in Feb 2009? We had a SSW that never propagated downwards and the norther blocking that we were expecting didn't arrive.

Karyo

I cannot recall what happened exactly but I thought we reaped some benefits? Wasn't the warming in Jan? As I had my first lying snow for many many years in Feb 09 Edited November 20, 2014 by Mapantz

[karyo]

I cannot recall what happened exactly but I thought we reaped some benefits? Wasn't the warming in Jan? As I had my first lying snow for many many years in Feb 09

There was a very brief but potent easterly which was not a result of any major northern blocking. After that we had an early spring which started in the middle of February, when, had the SSW propagated downwards, we'd have northern blocking well into March.

[chionomaniac]

Burn, burn, burn the timg of fire!...

Sorry, couldn't resist that today. Highest temps so far up at 1hpa and echoing what others have said. It's sort of like waiting like waiting for a bus. You know it'll turn up eventirely it's just a matter of when! The vortex is sort of on the edge of taking a proper beating but, as per said bus, it could take a while to 'arrive'.

No change from me, as you may have guessed from my post the other day. More atlantic spell likely and few weeks to get through yet. Mid to late Dec a focal point...

Cheers. Matt.

Have you seen the latest ECM strat ensembles on twitter, Matt. Big warming advertised even as far as 50hPa. Look at WSI tweet.

[Interitus]

The state of the vortex is not that much of a mystery.

There is strong vortex edge vorticity lower down, here shown on the 600k isentrope - http://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/meteorology/figures/merra/pv/mpvwen_600_2014_merra.pdf

 

This acts as a vertical waveguide directing the planetary wave breaking (PWB) to higher levels which we are seeing in the ECM Berlin charts or in the nice GFSC GEOS vorticity animations here - http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/arctic/index.html

These show a large forecast wave breaking event in the levels at 10mb / 800k and above but not lower down. This can be considered pretty much the norm, lower wave breaking tends to occur more often in the early or late winter when the lower vortex is more disorganised, but it is reasonably strong now with low temperatures and average vorticity. PWB tends to occur either high or low but rarely together or over many levels

 

For the rest of the winter however, early low level PWB reduces the wave guide effect of the vortex edge, shielding the upper vortex which tends to be stronger than average in the second half of the winter. Early high level PWB leads to a weaker stratosphere vortex in later winter so what is forecast is what you want to see now (if you want it weaker!).

A good description of the climatology of wavebreaking can be read in this paper by Abatzoglou and Magnusdottir - Wave breaking along the stratospheric polar vortex as seen in ERA-40 data -

http://www.ess.uci.edu/researchgrp/gudrun/files/2007GL029509.pdf

(Beware the obvious error in the abstract, they published a correction - http://www.ess.uci.edu/researchgrp/gudrun/files/2007GL030608.pdf)

 

While something happening in early winter can't be ruled out the vortex at the moment to a is not very similar to a 2000/1 or 2009/10, but more like a 1984/5 or 2012/13 perhaps favouring an SSW early in the new year.

[neige57]

http://www.centrometeotoscana.it/forum/index.php?topic=9061.0

[feb1991blizzard]

There was a very brief but potent easterly which was not a result of any major northern blocking. After that we had an early spring which started in the middle of February, when, had the SSW propagated downwards, we'd have northern blocking well into March.

 

I disagree with that, it was a hefty high at decent latitude, it just didn't last long, I was gutted with that cold spell as it didn't deliver for me personally but a lot of the country got belted.