Wales - Weather Chat

[keithlucky]

2 minutes ago, SnowStorm(Jamie) said:

Indeed, thats my current thoughts also. Here are some of my amateur thoughts currently. 

Netwx model (12Z data) shows incoming precipitation on Wednesday afternoon with rising temps, NE Wales see the lower temperatures.

EURO 4 (12Data) Showing Precipitation & Dew points:

Again as precipitation moves in Dew points also rising, likely due to the switch in flow from NW to a More West then South West:

I think its worth pointing out the GFS also does this but then colder air filters in from the NW again later Wednesday evening into Thursday which makes things tricky as there is potential for a rain to snow event but not everywhere of course. GFS 12z Wednesday night into Thursday:

However its still a long way out and not in full range of high resolution models yet so changes highly likely, but it does make for interesting model watching as always!

Cheers,

Jamie

 

 

Yes -7 uppers on Thursday could be interesting window watching!

[andymusic]

showers piling in from the north west into wales - reports please from up north if you please lol

 

as is usual in these set ups - north west - the beacons sucks the life out of these showers

 

edit:- just seen news 24 forecast bbc - looking good for hills in wales tomoz - lots of white blobby showers

Edited January 11, 2016 by andymusic

[RhysWales]

Hi all! Happy 2016! It's been a year or so since my last post in here, I think! Last bit of low level snow this way was a ten minute shower last January (I think.) Doubting that there'll be anything of note this week to either really, apart from some very cold rain! Have a feeling the valleys will get a couple of nice surprises though, and of course higher ground in north Wales! 

Still a long way to go though this winter though. I've been trying my best to keep track of the model thread, but it is more mood-swing inducing than my current medication... Either way, stay warm this week, and dry! 

[andymusic]

not long to wait now

 

 

battleground - too far away to call how it might pan out but cold air has a habit of being stubborn sometimes and this could all be snow

 

 

 

 

[Cwmbran Eira]

A cool and dry spell for here by the looks

 

[andymusic]

 

 

battleground getting stronger and longer

 

 

Edited January 12, 2016 by andymusic

[Snowyowl9]

Sleet and snow showers late morning here temps dropping from 4.3c earlier now 3.1c

[whiskers]

The question on everyone's lips.......are we having snow!!!  

[freeze for all]

I'd say high ground yes, low lying areas very doubtful but hope I'm wrong 

[EastAnglian]

1 hour ago, freeze for all said:

I'd say high ground yes, low lying areas very doubtful but hope I'm wrong 

I live in North West Wales and we have had a constant precession of showers of rain/sleet and some snow. I am at 210m so about 800 feet asl. I am hopeful for tomorrow PM and overnight but nothing is certain except that the Northerly flow is much modified and therefore not really as cold as we need for reliable lowland snow.

[Liam Ellis]

Where in North West Wales are you EastAnglian? I'm from Deiniolen, my family still lives there, but I'm in Cardiff now!

[EastAnglian]

26 minutes ago, Liam Ellis said:

Where in North West Wales are you EastAnglian? I'm from Deiniolen, my family still lives there, but I'm in Cardiff now!

Just outside Blaenau Ffestiniog, we moved from Sudbury in Suffolk in early November. I am hoping the weather since is not typical even the locals have been complaining about the wind and rain since then. Walking over the hills has been a bit soggy but we love the area and are glad to have made the move. 

[Liam Ellis]

1 minute ago, EastAnglian said:

Just outside Blaenau Ffestiniog, we moved from Sudbury in Suffolk in early November. I am hoping the weather since is not typical even the locals have been complaining about the wind and rain since then. Walking over the hills has been a bit soggy but we love the area and are glad to have made the move. 

Ahh, Blaenau Ffestiniog! Love going for a drive that way and then over the mountains towards Dolwyddelan. Beautiful part of the world. I hope you settle well and enjoy the weather up there. And of course, keep us updated - weather can be very severe around those mountains. Deiniolen, nr Llanberis has quite similar weather to Blaenau. Ohh I feel some 'hiraeth' now. On the other hand, a nice day in Cardiff quite chilly though with light winds.

[andymusic]

 

 

battleground looking good

 

 

 

how much snow did you say you wanted again?????????????????????

 

Edited January 12, 2016 by andymusic

[Snowyowl9]

Could see some snow on the very peaks of the berwyns today.

Uninspiring at the moment as temps went up this afternoon now 4c but with a band of potent showers coming in.

[bradymk]

That snow on Monday Andy i dont think will even make it to the UK. Could be a good snow event but think it will stay out west come Monday as GFS corrects westwards.

[keithlucky]

15 minutes ago, bradythemole said:

That snow on Monday Andy i dont think will even make it to the UK. Could be a good snow event but think it will stay out west come Monday as GFS corrects westwards.

Tends to do that but come Friday snow falling to lower levels.still a  good chance Friday Then Saturday Then a long shot stalling front as 1982 24hrs of snow https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=6&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwjgpJao7aTKAhXFdR4KHZZPCXgQFggsMAU&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ukweatherworld.co.uk%2Fforum%2Findex.php%3F%2Ftopic%2F96742-south-wales-snowstorm-1982%2F&usg=AFQjCNHLFtDmZkXk8jIwd5XSQ5LqHLGBwg

Edited January 12, 2016 by keithlucky

[PeteB]

Well, its just 1C here with constant and blustery heavy showers of rain, hail and just lately sleet. Roads are very bad and with a frost forecast its not going to get any better.

 

Pete

[Pamela Davies]

Just seen on facebook walesonline have said met office have issued us with a yellow warning for snow..had a look but I can't see no warning is it just me???

[gareth moo]

I won't pretend to know what I'm on about particularly as the pros are struggling with this set up. However, this is my take on things:

For the next couple of days it looks like most of us will be on the wrong side of marginal although elevation should be key.

Anyway, despite the big computers about to blow all their fuses and melt their hard drives with all of this transient input, the most reliable model of late (ECM) has just about completed a u- turn and locked down the cold for much longer into next week. More interestingly, It shows a cold flow off the continent at times and on a collision path with some PPN from our NW. It's a big 'if' but IF it materialises, Wales could be in a great position for a decent event come Sunday / Monday maybe? This output will of course change however, but this evening is a step in the right direction for a snowy outlook.

Andy battleground? Jackone streamer? Time will tell but if it still looks like this on Saturday we could be 'game on.'

What's your take on this one folks?

 

[Carl46Wrexham]

52 minutes ago, PeteB said:

Well, its just 1C here with constant and blustery heavy showers of rain, hail and just lately sleet. Roads are very bad and with a frost forecast its not going to get any better.

 

Pete

 

Surface water flooding is becoming a genuine issue in Wrexham now. Several hours of continuous rain.  Dont see the point of snow now. Everywhere is now wet/saturated or waterlogged.

http://www.wrexham.com/news/40mph-limit-on-part-of-wrexham-a483-bypass-due-to-flood-105874.html

Edited January 12, 2016 by Carl46Wrexham

[DeepSnow]

Temps still being forecast as around 5c with rain here Wednesday/Thursday so i think we will be on the wrong side of marginal here! Be interesting if we can cool down enough over the weekend if we manage to keep the cold though! 

Edited January 12, 2016 by DeepSnow

[keithlucky]

53 minutes ago, gareth moo said:

I won't pretend to know what I'm on about particularly as the pros are struggling with this set up. However, this is my take on things:

For the next couple of days it looks like most of us will be on the wrong side of marginal although elevation should be key.

Anyway, despite the big computers about to blow all their fuses and melt their hard drives with all of this transient input, the most reliable model of late (ECM) has just about completed a u- turn and locked down the cold for much longer into next week. More interestingly, It shows a cold flow off the continent at times and on a collision path with some PPN from our NW. It's a big 'if' but IF it materialises, Wales could be in a great position for a decent event come Sunday / Monday maybe? This output will of course change however, but this evening is a step in the right direction for a snowy outlook.

Andy battleground? Jackone streamer? Time will tell but if it still looks like this on Saturday we could be 'game on.'

What's your take on this one folks?

 

Read the my earlier post Gareth,as i said before models cope well with reading west to east movement of the gulf stream, but when we get east to west movement or north to south movement models  become conflicting and confused. .Atm the earliest breakdown is possibly Tuesday with general outbreaks sleet /snow Monday ,but that breakdown is be pushed back all the time fascinating weather watching.

Edited January 12, 2016 by keithlucky

[gareth moo]

5 minutes ago, keithlucky said:

 but when we get east to west movement it stutters and confused. .Atm the earliest breakdown is possibly Tuesday with general outbreaks sleet /snow Monday ,but that breakdown is be pushed back all the time fascinating weather watching.

Yes Keith, absolutely amazing chopping and changing with the synoptic output. I seem to remember some of our best winter events of recent years with the continual regress of the Atlantic pattern. Maybe a good sign that this is happening constantly at then moment?

[keithlucky]

Just now, gareth moo said:

Yes Keith, absolutely amazing chopping and changing with the synoptic output. I seem to remember some of our best winter events of recent years with the continual regress of the Atlantic pattern. Maybe a good sign that this is happening constantly at then moment?

Yes good point remember models are programmed by humans LOL.