Model Output Discussion 1200 hrs 15/11/14

[Froze were the Days]

Pardon, what cross model agreement in a weeks time , I personally don't see anything like this???  

 

Well not far away - UKMO @120z high pressure not far to the west of the UK (could be in cooler Pm air for a time).

[ANYWEATHER]

AS for my 3,000 post , may I say ,we should be looking towards the Northwest for cold weather ,rather than the Northeast for Deepcold in the ten day range . Goodnight!    

[knocker]

NOAA showing the extending influence of the Atlantic HP

 

[IDO]

Pardon, what cross model agreement in a weeks time , I personally don't see anything like this???    

 

 

The D7 mean charts for ECM, GEM and GEFS:

 

 

At that range a very good match. Then looking at the ECM mean normalized standard deviation for the same time frame and we see unusually high levels of confidence (green) over the UK area (that is maintained out to D10):

 

 

Compared to recent output from the models this looks very strong agreement going forward. Though as with most pattern changes it may evolve, possibly a less progressive Atlantic, allowing more amplification as the LP systems glance the UK or it could be flatter and therefore wetter for more of the UK. And of course all the models could be totally wrong.

[Blessed Weather]

Stunned silence greets the ECM 12z. The thing that worries me most about this run is that the PV over north east Canada looks just as monstrous at T240 as it does at T72. The other thing that worries me is the ridging of the arctic high over towards Canada at the end of the run. This will help feed the PV over north east Canada and thus push another surge of frigid air into the north east united states. This will in turn ramp up the atlantic - sound familiar? It's for these reasons that I hope this particular run is very wrong!!

 

WR sentence in bold - I've just posted a well argued blog from WSI Weatherwise in the North America thread that says another plunge of frigid air into NE America won't happen in the run up to mid-Dec. Maybe our resident 'upstream expert' Nick S. could comment as to whether he thinks this is good/bad/indifferent to us as Dec unfolds. (Sorry mods if not suitable to this thread).

 

Post #3479 in this thread https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/32704-north-american-weather-usa-canada/page-174

[johnholmes]

my notes from the evening check on the 3 anomaly charts I use every day

 

Noaa

6-10 and the +ve heights top left have created an actual circulation ridge, other than that and it all looks much as the last issue, although the ridge sw of uk looks more substantial but only small +ve’s in the atlantic. Flow is mainly w’ly from e of rockies round rounded Canada trough to w of uk where flow splits, most going to north into ridge(slight) Norway and ridge sw into Europe trough. There are changes, slow and fairly slight over the last 3 days.

No sign ot  me of deep cold from any direction but increasing signals for ridging in south/sw possibly extending more north with time

8-14 and both the far l top ridge along with some+ve heights and that off sw uk are there again, possibly touch more than last issue and following on from the usual less marked signals shown on the 6-10

Both ec and gfs are supportive of this latest couple of 6-10 outputs from noaa, so ridging in the s/sw possibly extending a bit further north and any major frontal activity looks to be only the far n/nw in the 6-15 day range?

WR sentence in bold - I've just posted a well argued blog from WSI Weatherwise in the North America thread that says another plunge of frigid air into NE America won't happen in the run up to mid-Dec. Maybe our resident 'upstream expert' Nick S. could comment as to whether he thinks this is good/bad/indifferent to us as Dec unfolds. (Sorry mods if not suitable to this thread).

 

Post #3479 in this thread https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/32704-north-american-weather-usa-canada/page-174

 

not NS but I would think that it is much more complex than what you seem to be suggesting BW?

[blizzard81]

A two way split in the 10 day ECM from next Weds. Sorry can't attach the file at the moment but

they can be seen on meteociel.

[bobbydog]

Hi Bobbydog, there are some very important differences on those Dec 62 charts. The one on the 8th is a different kettle of fish to today's scenario

as there is next to no PV over north east Canada and the one on the 21st, whilst at first glance looks terrible for cold prospects, there is a very important

difference in that the energy coming out of the States is much more favourable. The energy is digging south at a very favourable angle and much less likely to rush across the atlantic. Compare this with your chart for this December and you will see that the energy coming off the eastern seaboard of the US is at a much less favourable angle and primed to zip across the atlantic which would be akin to last winter.

The lesson here being you need to analyse all the crucial elements that go into making it possible for UK cold (and there are so many),

not just the general synoptics.

 

 

true, but there are many people on here better qualified than me who analyse the crucial elements correctly, yet the weather itself has different ideas and proves many an 'expert' wrong...

[winterof79]

A two way split in the 10 day ECM from next Weds. Sorry can't attach the file at the moment but

they can be seen on meteociel.

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/Data/pluim_06260_0_12_60.png

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png

[bluearmy]

Extended ECM ens dispense with the Siberian vortex chunk. Would be good to see some consistency in the extended ens before drawing any conclusions.

NAEFS doesn't do the same as the ECM ens and keeps the Siberian as the master with the Canadian pulling back towards the pole. week 2 on naefs shows a strong of depressions running nw/se along the ne flank of the Atlantic high. Mean Italian trough as a result.

Edited November 26, 2014 by bluearmy

[Blessed Weather]

^^^ Thank you John, I take your point. I was just wondering whether there were any ramifications from the 11-15 day pattern WSI were suggesting for N.A.

[Tamara]

Extended ECM ens dispense with the Siberian vortex chunk. Would be good to see some consistency in the extended ens before drawing any conclusions.

The dangers of extrapolating and reacting not just to operational suites from day to day but also whole ensemble suites that can also seem so convincing on an intra day basis if the wider picture is ignored. So yes agreed - consistency definitely the watchword

 

Apparent snap divergence away from the Cohen winter template could simply be a matter of timing much as alluded to in the earlier post. Afterall, it is only November and expected feedbacks have always been working on becoming of significant interest beyond the second half of December/onwards into the heart of winter anyway.

 

Its another good reminder why I only usually post a couple of times or so a week at the most

 

In that context, so far so good

 

NAEFS extended 12z.  My edit - to further underpin bluearmy's own edit and give some lead as to how the NWP may head in the coming days. This update is consistent with previous extended consolidated ensemble data. Its the vortex movement and lack of organisation that matters most in the early to mid part of December and not what is happening at the surface in the UK

 

Edited November 26, 2014 by Tamara תָּמָר

[ukpaul]

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/Data/pluim_06260_0_12_60.png

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png

 

After 12h a definite split for ECM with the op towards the warmest end (as I think many expected).

 

For those looking at mean charts beyond that range it really is worthless to put any store in them when it's a mean made up of very diverse outcomes.

 

Early stages of the GFS 18z, the op once again being less progressive with the Atlantic, as has so often been the case, but the parallel looking relatively steady. The stats are not showing ECM standards of 5 day verification yet but the parallel at least looks to have reduced that tendency to push the Atlantic through in the early stages of a run.

 

GFS 18z yesterday

 

 

 

GFS 18z today, the shift is gradual throughout the day's runs.

 

Edited November 26, 2014 by ukpaul

[legritter]

IFF the Models have nailed it right up till mid december and possibly beyond that means tomorrow morning we will see no change on our current 240 hr charts .So sorry folks NO modell watching  no discussions Time for the Met office down at exeter to go part time ,and of course the new SUPERCOMPUTER WILL NO LONGER BE NEEDED .Plenty of uncertainty in the long range charts at the moment so plenty to keep us in the Hunt for cold .We have a brilliant team of posters on NET Weather and although the majority of us including myself are Amateurs we are professional compared to some Media outlets [headline scaremongers ]and some internet sights ,long live NET weather, The Met office ,and long live the uncertainty of our Weather ,if this gets moved to Ramps ,i will understand ,  

[DAVID SNOW]

IFF the Models have nailed it right up till mid december and possibly beyond that means tomorrow morning we will see no change on our current 240 hr charts .So sorry folks NO modell watching  no discussions Time for the Met office down at exeter to go part time ,and of course the new SUPERCOMPUTER WILL NO LONGER BE NEEDED .Plenty of uncertainty in the long range charts at the moment so plenty to keep us in the Hunt for cold .We have a brilliant team of posters on NET Weather and although the majority of us including myself are Amateurs we are professional compared to some Media outlets [headline scaremongers ]and some internet sights ,long live NET weather, The Met office ,and long live the uncertainty of our Weather ,if this gets moved to Ramps ,i will understand ,  

 

 My post too leg, but I think their new super computer does not go online until next year

[492]

One of the most significant developments which looks likely to affect the UK in the next few days is the imminent transfer SE then E of the Atlantic low into the Med and the backing of the flow to bring colder air from further east. Once in place this feature could persist for a while as unexpectedly indicated by 18Z GFS. The cold is currently intensifying over Russia and is filtering into SE and eastern Europe. http://meteocentre.com/analyses/map.php?lang=en&map=eur_full&area=eur&size=large


  

[BlueHedgehog074]

My post too leg, but I think their new super computer does not go online until next year

According to this page from the Met Office (http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2014/new-hpc) "The first phase of the super computer will be operational in September 2015 and the system will reach full capacity in 2017"

Anyway, best to get back to the models now. Cheers guys.

[Nouska]

WSI have a blog more pertinent to our interests.

 

http://www.wsi.com/blog/energy/europe-pattern-change-ahead-less-ridging-over-north-east-europe/

 

ECM week three and four T2M ensemble mean not an inspiring sight, though.

 

 

Regarding the one for the US mid term - it is weighted on MJO travel - the fast passage from the Indian Ocean may not take place as modelled. As is so often the case, it stops, fiddles around a bit, before moving in a more purposeful direction.

 

Edit to add:

 

The PGFS is still persisting with the signal for cold incursion round about the 8th - expect it will come and go as time counts down but my interest is in how far out it can get the pattern right.

Edited November 26, 2014 by Nouska

[knocker]

One of the most significant developments which looks likely to affect the UK in the next few days is the imminent transfer SE then E of the Atlantic low into the Med and the backing of the flow to bring colder air from further east. Once in place this feature could persist for a while as unexpectedly indicated by 18Z GFS. The cold is currently intensifying over Russia and is filtering into SE and eastern Europe. http://meteocentre.com/analyses/map.php?lang=en&map=eur_full&area=eur&size=large

  

 

The P has the low disconnecting after briefly effecting the UK with above average temps

Chart courtesy weatherbell

[SMU]

One of the most significant developments which looks likely to affect the UK in the next few days is the imminent transfer SE then E of the Atlantic low into the Med and the backing of the flow to bring colder air from further east. Once in place this feature could persist for a while as unexpectedly indicated by 18Z GFS. The cold is currently intensifying over Russia and is filtering into SE and eastern Europe. http://meteocentre.com/analyses/map.php?lang=en&map=eur_full&area=eur&size=large

  

 

One of the best posts of the evening-

 

All this talk of mild & atlantic driven weather today, even people writing of the whole of December on Nov 26 seemed to escaped most.

 

Also as Paul has posted the Zonal train is struggling tonight, as highlighted by the Amplification from yesterdays 18z to todays.

 

Anyway back to this 'mild' atlantic weather - its nowhere to be seen on the 18z, infact the cold gathers pace over the near continent.

 

These are the MAX temps at day 6 & 7 & 8

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs1444.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs1684.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs1894.gif

 

with on Average -3 to -4c uppers & a strong East wind in 0c dewpoints

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs1681.gif

Cold surface air

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs1689.gif

 

Interestingly the GEM which always seems to be the most initial amplified model ( which seems to be relevant as amplification is the word of the day) has

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014112612/gemfr-1-150.png?12

an envelope of -8c air into the SE at day 6/7

 

One to note & keep an eye on.....

 

S

[blizzard81]

The dangers of extrapolating and reacting not just to operational suites from day to day but also whole ensemble suites that can also seem so convincing on an intra day basis if the wider picture is ignored. So yes agreed - consistency definitely the watchword

 

Apparent snap divergence away from the Cohen winter template could simply be a matter of timing much as alluded to in the earlier post. Afterall, it is only November and expected feedbacks have always been working on becoming of significant interest beyond the second half of December/onwards into the heart of winter anyway.

 

Its another good reminder why I only usually post a couple of times or so a week at the most

 

In that context, so far so good

 

NAEFS extended 12z.  My edit - to further underpin bluearmy's own edit and give some lead as to how the NWP may head in the coming days. This update is consistent with previous extended consolidated ensemble data. Its the vortex movement and lack of organisation that matters most in the early to mid part of December and not what is happening at the surface in the UK

 

Post of the day if I may say so myself

[bobbydog]

GFS (p)

360hrs

Snow.

Message over...

[blizzard81]

true, but there are many people on here better qualified than me who analyse the crucial elements correctly, yet the weather itself has different ideas and proves many an 'expert' wrong...

 

If I take your reply in it's truest context, then what point is there analysing any of the output? In which case this forum would not exist!

You compared today's charts with a select couple of charts from Dec 62 to make the case that from a seemingly hopeless situation

cold wise, there is always hope of a more fruitful outcome. I merely pointed out a few crucial differences between those Dec 62

charts & the present ones.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

 

 

And its there again, let's keep watching this IMO as its the route to our 1st potential real cold blast.  I know its GFS AND the 18z but you get the idea.

Looking forward to the next few days modelling....well actually the next 3 months

 

 

BFTP

[bobbydog]

If I take your reply in it's truest context, then what point is there analysing any of the output? In which case this forum would not exist!

You compared today's charts with a select couple of charts from Dec 62 to make the case that from a seemingly hopeless situation

cold wise, there is always hope of a more fruitful outcome. I merely pointed out a few crucial differences between those Dec 62

charts & the present ones.

I fully understand your point, my point was that back then, we might not have seen that coming. That the logical evolution is not necessarily the actual outcome. Even the highly respected Met office are frequent victims of natures defiance of logic