Winter 2014-15 thread

[Carl46Wrexham]

Hopefully more like this

And less like this like last year.

 

This would be more accurate..........

[SE Blizzards]

Good old Gavin P ramping up Xmas and the New Year... lol

 

 

You just can't beat a good ramp!

Edited December 3, 2014 by SE Blizzards

[virtualsphere]

The cut-off high (surface and upper level) over far northern Russia and adjacent Arctic Ocean (1054 mb, 82N 95E) is very unusual. An inspection of same date maps in the wetterzentrale archives (1871 to 2013) shows only four cases where a high stronger than 1030 mb was located north of 70N in that general area. Four cases include 1916, 1928, 1946, and 1966. The 1946 case led to a similar looking strong high on 6-7 Dec which then sank southwest into Russia.

 

Interesting stuff - of those winters, we get CET figures of 1.9, 1.6. 0.9 for 1916/7, 3.4, 1.3, 0.4 for 1928/9, 3.1, 2.2, -1.9 for 1946/7 and (perhaps the odd one out) 5.5, 4.5, 5.4 for 1966/7.  The first three also all follow a descending pattern from moderate cold into severe cold as the season progresses.  Would this be part of the reason you revised your winter forecast CET downwards Roger?  

 

Of these, 1928 seems to be a good match for our part of the world at this point.

 

 

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Good old Gavin P ramping up Xmas and the New Year... lol

 

 

You just can't beat a good ramp!

Blimey that was one hell of a forecast though lol one can hope hey

[Mark Neal.]

Interesting fax chart for Sunday & Monday. 528 Dam clears the country and a unstable NW airflow with troughs showing. Interesting.

.

[Dorsetbred]

Blimey that was one hell of a forecast though lol one can hope hey

So is thirteen lucky for Gavin or not. as it states "Thirteenth Christmas Update"?

[Big Dave]

I think we would. In early Jan 2010 my mum's car battery gave up the ghost in -15C conditions. Got in to go somewhere and it was as flat as a pancake. Anyway, one of the neighbours across the road noticed and brought his jump leads over. When they didn't work he jumped in his car to pick up some better ones from his friend's place. We'd never spoken to him before but I was amazed how people can pull together under such conditions!

Early Jan 2010 was probably THE single most impressive wintry spell I've experienced. Just for the sheer severity of the cold.

 

I agree we would - it's down to individuals to make a difference!  In Feb 09, my wife was pregnant and due the week of heavy snow but I spent from 7pm - midnight clearing our road and pushing cars up the hill (admittedly to make sure we could get  to the hospital if we needed to!) but still, I could have done what many did and closed the curtains ignoring what was going on outside and relying on an ambulance to do something.  Then in 2010 we got stuck in the car on the A22 in Caterham around 6pm and I joined half a dozen other chaps pushing stranded cars and vans half a mile up hill (still in my - ultimately ruined - work suit and shoes).

 

Whilst on both occasions there was an element of selfishness to my actions, we all had a good laugh and the English spirit really came through.  Definitely memories that stick with me, humanity at it's best.  Helping each other to help yourself, for the good of everyone.  Hopefully everyone who needed to go home those nights. Those that were to elderly or unable to help, seemed to really appreciate it.  Others who couldn't push cars brought out the odd cup of tea or coffee (one gent even gave me a swig of Jack Daniels which certainly helped!) Everyone could have sat in  their cars but they didn't.    Being neighbourly starts with just one person.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

I agree we would - it's down to individuals to make a difference!  In Feb 09, my wife was pregnant and due the week of heavy snow but I spent from 7pm - midnight clearing our road and pushing cars up the hill (admittedly to make sure we could get  to the hospital if we needed to!) but still, I could have done what many did and closed the curtains ignoring what was going on outside and relying on an ambulance to do something.  Then in 2010 we got stuck in the car on the A22 in Caterham around 6pm and I joined half a dozen other chaps pushing stranded cars and vans half a mile up hill (still in my - ultimately ruined - work suit and shoes).

 

Whilst on both occasions there was an element of selfishness to my actions, we all had a good laugh and the English spirit really came through.  Definitely memories that stick with me, humanity at it's best.  Helping each other to help yourself, for the good of everyone.  Hopefully everyone who needed to go home those nights. Those that were to elderly or unable to help, seemed to really appreciate it.  Others who couldn't push cars brought out the odd cup of tea or coffee (one gent even gave me a swig of Jack Daniels which certainly helped!) Everyone could have sat in  their cars but they didn't.    Being neighbourly starts with just one person.

You know what that really bought a smile to my face , I love it when we all pull together and help out , everyone mucks in and turns a desperate situation into a good laugh .

Back on sat 18th December 2010 , I was living in my first house in the Cotswolds with my now brother in law , we was in chelt , because we knew we should stay on low ground as we really needed our cars the next day , but typical Leah(my now wife!) told me she had something up at the house she needed for the next day so me and Ryan (bro in law) went on the journey , conditions rapidly deteriated as we drove up into the Cotswolds on the A40 , but it was so beautiful to see obviously me been a complete snow lover ! We couldn't resist the chance to have a cheeky "one" in our local , which turned into 2 , with chicken and chips in a basket . . . Mmmmm !! We watched from the window for an hour in the warm pub with the open fires , the blizzard , with smow rapidly building , with a good 10 inches already down , we decided we should get moving , as we got back on the A40 people were jacknifing their lorries , cars were stuck in the deep snow , so we decided to stop and help an elderly guy , so we pushed him free, we then stayed there for an hour and a half trying to help everyone , once we got back into the car we realised we ourselves were stuck and began to try and push ourselves out of it but to no evail , so we abandoned our car and began the long walk into chelt , thankfully some random stranger pulled over in there 4x4 and picked us up and took us to chelt , we all had a good laugh and a good old drink that evening talking about our shininagans !! Makes good stories and will never forget that memorable day .

[Smiler1709]

We don't usually get the major snow being on the south coast, usually a easterly is when we get any significant weather in terms of snow and cold. December 2010 was awesome for our area, 10 inches of snow and freezing days. I must say I am worried about this up and coming winter, I really hope Steve forecast comes true, but I think were gonna be stuck between a winter like last year with only brief incursions of cold. I really want to take my little baby girl out in her first snowfall she was born last year but that winter is best left burried at the back of the mind.

[BornFromTheVoid]

The November AO data is out, and this Autumn (at -0.52) has had the most -ve AO since 2010, and the 3rd most -ve since 2000.

 

Conversely, the NAO this Autumn has been the most +ve since 2011 and the 3rd most positive since 2000.

 

Looking at the AO in more detail, previous autumns in the range of -0.3 to -0.7 and had an average winter AO of -0.8, indicating a strong tendency for weakly -ve AO Autumns to be followed by moderate to strongly -ve AO winters. Of the 15 autumns between -0.3 and -0.7, only 3 had +ve winter AOs, with 12 -ve AOs, of which 7 of those averaged under -1.0.

Edited December 4, 2014 by BornFromTheVoid

[gsteruk]

BBC are predicting light snow showers for G67 tomorrow.... My my

[Hocus Pocus]

The November AO data is out, and this Autumn (at -0.52) has had the most -ve AO since 2010, and the 3rd most -ve since 2000.

 

Conversely, the NAO this Autumn has been the most +ve since 2011 and the 3rd most positive since 2000.

 

Looking at the AO in more detail, previous autumns in the range of -0.3 to -0.7 and had an average winter AO of -0.8, indicating a strong tendency for weakly -ve AO Autumns to be followed by moderate to strongly -ve AO winters. Of the 15 autumns between -0.3 and -0.7, only 3 had +ve winter AOs, with 12 -ve AOs, of which 7 of those averaged under -1.0.

That's quite interesting  how disengaged the NAO and AO have been, kind of polar opposites for want of a better description.

[feb1991blizzard]

Remarkable consistency on the next 8 days from the GFS, I don't think I have ever seen 2 GFS consecutive runs so close for so long a timescale before.

[feb1991blizzard]

What is this about the EC32 being a stonker, can anyone confirm?

[Polar Maritime]

 Nearly 50cm of snow forecast in the next six days for the Nevis Range, With a storm thrown in for good measures...

 

[feb1991blizzard]

The people panicking saying its going to be above average in deep FI are right, it is going to be about 40c above average over the other side of the globe about 130000 feet up!!!

[sparky1972]

good afternoon all, things decidedly chilly here today, and just seen the 16 day forecast and we are due snow on the 13th Dec,   mmmmmmmm if only

[SE Blizzards]

Gavin P's Fourteenth Christmas/New Year update, and just like the 13th update it ends up a real cold one, with heavy snow and blizzards! 

 

     

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Gavin P's Fourteenth Christmas/New Year update, and just like the 13th update it ends up a real cold one, with heavy snow and blizzards! 

 

     

 

 

Don't believe it sorry, he seems like a Corbyn or a Madden, don't care how much he knows about weather! I only know the basics, and I am going for a wet/windy Xmas, mm wonder who will be closer

[SE Blizzards]

Don't believe it sorry, he seems like a Corbyn or a Madden, don't care how much he knows about weather! I only know the basics, and I am going for a wet/windy Xmas, mm wonder who will be closer

 

Ermmm... Gavin P is not 'forecasting' a bitterly cold xmas/new year, he is clearly just showing and commenting on what the CFS is showing!!!

[feb1991blizzard]

Ermmm... Gavin P is not 'forecasting' a bitterly cold xmas/new year, he is clearly just showing and commenting on what the CFS is showing!!!

 

 

quite right, he went for a mild first half of winter and cold to come later than most on here, and I doubt he would be having second thoughts on the strength of 2 cfs runs.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Don't believe it sorry, he seems like a Corbyn or a Madden, don't care how much he knows about weather! I only know the basics, and I am going for a wet/windy Xmas, mm wonder who will be closer

You obviously know nothing about him then cause you couldn't be more wrong . His a good hardworking amature weather enthusiast/forecaster , he merely is just pointing out what the CFS is pointing to and looking for trends . He states it's just for fun , he does very comprehensive and realistic videos based on what data he has available . Maybe you should do your research on him first before commenting ?

[Mark Neal.]

Ben Nevis looking good, should be a good week for elevation in Scotland, even some to lower levels for a time. . Not a bad first week to winter!

2 years ago on this date we had a localised band of heavy showers from the NW gave 2cm of snow.

Edited December 5, 2014 by Mark N

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

Oh dear, thats put the kibosh on this winter now  , even the BBC are reporting on the Daily Express headlines, whatever next!     

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-30356337

[Weather-history]

Already recorded the same number of frosts this meteorological winter as I did last winter and we are only in the first week and also with lower minima at that.

-3.0C