Winter 2014-15 thread

[hillbilly]

Lots of people are hoping for a big winter to rival the greats of 2009/10,1985/86,1981/82,1978/79,1962/63..etc but if you look at them closely it always amazes me how completely different they all were.After trawling the met office I noticed that the extended winter of 1916/1917 had 10 more air frosts than that of 1962/63 and 36 more than 2009/10...what an extended winter that must have been! Anyone got any info on that winter?

[johnholmes]

Apparently the North was just very cold and dry for large periods in 1963, apart from Eastern coastal areas, it was the South - West that took a constant battering with massive drifts, unusual for the SW to take the brunt of a cold spell for a sustained period, something usually gives, either the fronts push up and give pennine Northern areas a pounding or an Easterly sets in and keeps SW dry, for fronts to keep having a go and dumping snow but not breaking through is very unusual.

 

Not totally true as drifts over 7-10 foot high were a feature in many inland areas, certainly in my home area around Chesterfield, off and on from early January into March.

I can't put my finger on it just now but there are a couple of web sites with lots of details about the 47 and 62-63 winters, one complete with charts. Give Google a try?

Edited December 2, 2014 by johnholmes

[feb1991blizzard]

Not totally true as drifts over 7-10 foot high were a feature in many inland areas, certainly in my home area around Chesterfield, off and on from early January into March.

I can't put my finger on it just now but there are a couple of web sites with lots of details about the 47 and 62-63 winters, one complete with charts. Give Google a try?

 

I have read those, Gavin Partridge did a video I think, im sure its Trevor Harley's website, my memory must be poor but Im sure the South West got the brunt when I looked back at the archive charts on meteociel, I know my location got battered  in 1947 because there is a picture in a local pub of about 6 foot of snow and that's only on the flat low ground, the hill tops probably got 20ft drifts!!

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

Did someone say snow??

 

 

[Harve]

There's about 2cm of snow on the ground here and I'm only 300km from the Kent coast, so despite the poor-ish prospects, winter maybe isn't as far away from the UK as it might seem!

[Knoxgar]

first snowfall of the season right now! starts to accumulating already!

[TonyH]

Although I wasn't born, the 1962/63 winter did not consist of constant blizzards though. I am sure during that winter there were long spells of just dry, sunny, very cold weather. Now I personally would prefer that over a prolonged spell of wet, mild, windy weather.

Yes for most regions it was usually dry and frosty with occasional slight snowfalls. Also as a high pressure dominated Winter close to or over the UK uppers were not often extreme, usually 0 to -10c, with prolonged inversion causing the actual surface cold.

[Rich_Clements]

There's about 2cm of snow on the ground here and I'm only 300km from the Kent coast, so despite the poor-ish prospects, winter maybe isn't as far away from the UK as it might seem!

Indeed a friend of mine in Germany has just said they are getting wet snow, they got a green winter last year also

[Summer Sun]

Quite stormy at times next week especially in the north, and quite a bit of snow in the north eventually next week, all in the latest week ahead forecast from the beeb

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/30303588

 

Edited December 2, 2014 by Summer Sun

[egret]

There's about 2cm of snow on the ground here and I'm only 300km from the Kent coast, so despite the poor-ish prospects, winter maybe isn't as far away from the UK as it might seem!

good to hear from you Harve  - nice to hear from our continental friends - especially when they bring news of snow!!

[damianslaw]

I think the above will raise a few eyebrows for those in the north - not often the BBC stick there neck out with a bullish statement - i.e. eventually lots of snow in the north, it suggests to me they foresee a meridional flow setting up with cold polar maritime air digging down behind frontal activity , such a set up would certainly deliver snow to low levels in the north thanks to rapid evaporative cooling..

[egret]

first snowfall of the season right now! starts to accumulating already!

good to hear from you also Knoxgar, how far were you from the S Germany snowfall earlier this autumn?

[LomondSnowstorm]

I think the above will raise a few eyebrows for those in the north - not often the BBC stick there neck out with a bullish statement - i.e. eventually lots of snow in the north, it suggests to me they foresee a meridional flow setting up with cold polar maritime air digging down behind frontal activity , such a set up would certainly deliver snow to low levels in the north thanks to rapid evaporative cooling..

Something like a January 1984 setup. It certainly looks possible from the output if the deep low doesn't track too far south - ironically we would've had more of these cold zonal setups last winter if blocking had been a bit less prevalent to the northeast and the jet was tracking further north.

GFS normal and the GFS(P) both have similar setups to this and I suspect the UKMO would look similar if it went out a bit further. ECM ENS also suggests this is a plausible outcome:

 

January 1984 for comparison (although naturally the PV was significantly stronger than it is now):

[Knoxgar]

good to hear from you also Knoxgar, how far were you from the S Germany snowfall earlier this autumn?

 

Hi egret,

 

well this is the first time this season with snowfall in my area!

The early season snowfall occured in an area called "upper bavaria" near the alps so it's quite a trip going there from my location (about 4 hours by car)

[johnholmes]

I have read those, Gavin Partridge did a video I think, im sure its Trevor Harley's website, my memory must be poor but Im sure the South West got the brunt when I looked back at the archive charts on meteociel, I know my location got battered  in 1947 because there is a picture in a local pub of about 6 foot of snow and that's only on the flat low ground, the hill tops probably got 20ft drifts!!

 

this is the link, some years ago I did a post showing the temperatures at the airfield where I worked SE of Nottingham along with some comments about my childhood memories of 1947. Available if anyone wants them via pm to stop clogging up this thread.

 

http://myweb.tiscali.co.uk/mtullett/1962-63/index.htm

Edited December 2, 2014 by johnholmes

[feb1991blizzard]

this is the link, some years ago I did a post showing the temperatures at the airfield where I worked SE of Nottingham along with some comments about my childhood memories of 1947. Available if anyone wants them via pm to stop clogging up this thread.

 

http://myweb.tiscali.co.uk/mtullett/1962-63/index.htm

 

Cheers, good to read reports as you cant always determine where showers fall just by looking at 500mb, surface and 850mb on meteociel, I think there are PPN charts on the wetterzentrale but I don't think they go back that far and certainly aren't of a great resolution.    Thanks.

[MidnightSnow]

[feb1991blizzard]

No GFS parallel tomorrow until the 8th December so we have to make do with the old exaggerated jet stream modeller for a while.

[Weather-history]

Well that didn't take long.

-3.3C and already recorded a lower minimum this meteorological winter than last one.

The Manchester Winter Index is off and running

Edited December 3, 2014 by Weather-history

[Weather-history]

The Manchester Winter Index is off and running

Hopefully more like this

And less like this like last year.

[Roger J Smith]

The cut-off high (surface and upper level) over far northern Russia and adjacent Arctic Ocean (1054 mb, 82N 95E) is very unusual. An inspection of same date maps in the wetterzentrale archives (1871 to 2013) shows only four cases where a high stronger than 1030 mb was located north of 70N in that general area. Four cases include 1916, 1928, 1946, and 1966. The 1946 case led to a similar looking strong high on 6-7 Dec which then sank southwest into Russia.

 

Although there were a few weak analogues this particular case is still 15-20 mb stronger and is thus outside the general range of normal atmospheric variability. A singularity. We have already seen another very unusual situation in eastern North America about ten days back with the massive snow squall regime. One wonders what other singularity features this winter may have in store.

 

Although the near term is locked into cold zonal patterns for Britain and Ireland, there could be a rather fast transition to northern blocking as models may not have a very firm handle on where this super-strong blocking high drifts. The 00z (and previous) model consensus was that it would just weaken in place and feed across the pole to build up a Greenland high, but it is conceivable that a stronger feature will remain in place and drift towards northern Scandinavia in ten to fifteen days. Once the deep low passes around the 9th-10th, the door might open for very cold air to surge south(west) towards you. A placid and rather mild looking circulation pattern developing over west-central North America would support this development by anchoring ridges at about 110W and 40W as well as 30-50E.

 

However, other evolutions are possible and the solution may be continued cold zonality or a weak return to milder for a while. It seems likely that with this massive blocking in place at very high latitudes, the winter is very unlikely to pass without a significant cold outbreak towards western Europe.

[jcw]

Not totally true as drifts over 7-10 foot high were a feature in many inland areas, certainly in my home area around Chesterfield, off and on from early January into March.

I can't put my finger on it just now but there are a couple of web sites with lots of details about the 47 and 62-63 winters, one complete with charts. Give Google a try?

Mike Tullet kept some great records before he passed away. Try http://myweb.tiscali.co.uk/mtullett/1962-63/

Joe

[Hocus Pocus]

Something like a January 1984 setup. It certainly looks possible from the output if the deep low doesn't track too far south - ironically we would've had more of these cold zonal setups last winter if blocking had been a bit less prevalent to the northeast and the jet was tracking further north.

GFS normal and the GFS(P) both have similar setups to this and I suspect the UKMO would look similar if it went out a bit further. ECM ENS also suggests this is a plausible outcome:

 

January 1984 for comparison (although naturally the PV was significantly stronger than it is now):

January 84 was a cracker around these parts with deep lying snow for over two weeks, it started with just a few wintry showers behind the first TM system that passed through and evolved into almost 12 days of continuous snowfall in the form of showers or longer periods of snow. 

 

Edited December 3, 2014 by Hocus Pocus

[Thunderbolt_]

Got down to -3.4C last night. That means winter 2014-15 is already more wintry than last winter was, and it's only December 3. Wow!

Edited December 3, 2014 by ScottRichards10

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Got down to -3.4C last night. That means winter 2014-15 is already more wintry than last winter was, and it's only December 3. Wow!

Just shows how pathetic last winter really was lol !