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Model Output Discussion - The final stretch to Christmas


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Posted
  • Location: Currently Southminster, Essex (but original home town Northampton)
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow/Blizzards in Winter, Cool Summers. (I'm allergic to heat)!
  • Location: Currently Southminster, Essex (but original home town Northampton)

I doubt the whiteout conditions to be honest , might be sleety at best for MBY

 

Both 'white out conditions' and 'blowtorch' comments were made tongue in cheek...

Edited by SE Blizzards
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Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl

I don't think there is any point looking beyond about 96 hours at the moment, as that deepening low is being modelled significantly differently on every single run of every model at the moment.

excellent. that means no-one can claim with any confidence, that winter is written off. game on....

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Posted
  • Location: Exeter, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: Exeter, Devon

A lesson I have taken from tonight's runs in terms of getting cold, and I am sure others have observed this, is that the ideal position to get any significant cold from a Northerly towards the end of next would be for the low to dig south to the west of the British Isles and to dig south far enough that it isn't immediately pushed away. Regardless of long term cold prospects, our best hopes of getting cold in the first place are from there in my opinion. The GFS(P) did so this evening on the 18z and I will be looking for that feature in future runs

Edited by Joe Levy
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Posted
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire

GFS P going for Rain to Snow event for much of the country as cold air digs down from the North with the low.. Interesting to see, but no model support currently.

post-15543-0-64821900-1419203551_thumb.j post-15543-0-43824400-1419203567_thumb.j post-15543-0-30929900-1419203587_thumb.j

post-15543-0-32676500-1419203614_thumb.j post-15543-0-15343100-1419203631_thumb.j

Uppers-

post-15543-0-66219400-1419203650_thumb.j post-15543-0-41087600-1419203665_thumb.j post-15543-0-59840900-1419203684_thumb.j

post-15543-0-72994300-1419203693_thumb.j post-15543-0-64351400-1419203701_thumb.j

The GFS P keeps throwing out the Rain to Snow potential. Mostly rain but possibly back edge snow, unlikely to be significant if seems, but for those who haven't seen snow, keeps us interested for now!

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Posted
  • Location: Currently Southminster, Essex (but original home town Northampton)
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow/Blizzards in Winter, Cool Summers. (I'm allergic to heat)!
  • Location: Currently Southminster, Essex (but original home town Northampton)

I see, apologies , some might not see that as you posted relevant charts

 

Sorry SE

 

No probs Banbury  :)

 

 

Naughty of me really, as some newbies may of taken the 'white-out/blowtorch comments seriously, so apologies for that.

 

I was just highlighting/emphasising just how differently the models see things at present. It really is crazy that models can disagree at such lengths at just Days 5/6!

Edited by SE Blizzards
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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle
  • Location: Carlisle

I'm superised there is no talk of the weather front that's going to bring some nasty weather to southern Scotland and Northern England over the next day or so.

Currently very gusty and pouring down, flooding could be possible

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

Shannon entropy at its finest first two ensemble members.

 

gensnh-1-1-192.png?18gensnh-2-1-204.png?12

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Posted
  • Location: Huntly, Aberdeenshire 123m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: SNAW
  • Location: Huntly, Aberdeenshire 123m ASL

Shannon entropy at its finest first two ensemble members.

 

gensnh-1-1-192.png?18gensnh-2-1-204.png?12

Bank perb1 please. and bin perb2.....

Edited by bigsnow
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Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex

Some better charts knocking around the GFS tonight.

 

I like this one, which is the 192 hour chart. Some 'real' height rises to our north around Iceland. From here the jet could go under the block. The problem with the original idea of mid atlantic ridge was that it wasn't actually blocking anything. In essence it was like dumping a massive rock in a stream, where the water goes around. In this case the low pressure systems were simply being pushed across Greenland and if that happens its hello zonal a couple of days later.

 

Yes, it goes pear shaped after 192 but probably just because it goes 'low res' at that point. Some further hints in the GEFS rolling out now as well. If we get heights to our north that's a game changer. If not, its game over.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=192&mode=0

 

Edit: GFSP also just about hints at the jet going south but goes bang rapidly at 240 when it also goes 'low res'.

Edited by Jason M
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Posted
  • Location: Currently Southminster, Essex (but original home town Northampton)
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow/Blizzards in Winter, Cool Summers. (I'm allergic to heat)!
  • Location: Currently Southminster, Essex (but original home town Northampton)

Shannon entropy at its finest first two ensemble members.

 

gensnh-1-1-192.png?18gensnh-2-1-204.png?12

 

There is even a couple of  members trying for an Easterly at the same sort of time frame.

 

I thought i was confused watching the drama unfold yesterday, but that's nothing compared to how confused i am now.

 

Does anyone have the foggiest on how this is all going to pan out, because i don't have a clue!?

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

The one thing that is showing for me today as I alluded earlier is the timing of the storm, for me its coming but timing is the issue.  Already some model output has slowed it down. 

 

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

There is even a couple of  members trying for an Easterly at the same sort of time frame.

 

I thought i was confused watching the drama unfold yesterday, but that's nothing compared to how confused i am now.

 

Does anyone have the foggiest on how this is all going to pan out, because i don't have a clue!?

 

Personally, no.  :pardon:

 

It's both fun and frustrating at the same time.

I don't mind the rollercoaster so long as we get some joy at the end of it.

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni

Small post from me which took me a long time to type up with lots of editing (as I kept adding to it), so if youve missed it, here it is :) 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82079-model-output-discussion-the-final-stretch-to-christmas/page-3#entry3094175

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Posted
  • Location: Cambourne Cambridge 70M ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Blizzards,Hot Thundery nights.
  • Location: Cambourne Cambridge 70M ASL

Small post from me which took me a long time to type up with lots of editing (as I kept adding to it), so if youve missed it, here it is :)

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82079-model-output-discussion-the-final-stretch-to-christmas/page-3#entry3094175

Nice post .

By the way your Sig pic just about sums up the winter model watching.

I've just spent the last five mins in stitches, it's brilliant.

Edited by 80sWeather
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Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore

Erm, as goes model discussion, most of the recent posts are about as far removed it as you can get, so can we try to steer things back on topic now please.

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Posted
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos

No probs Banbury  :)

 

 

Naughty of me really, as some newbies may of taken the 'white-out/blowtorch comments seriously, so apologies for that.

 

I was just highlighting/emphasising just how differently the models see things at present. It really is crazy that models can disagree at such lengths at just Days 5/6!

Not really. Can you imagine how many iterations of calculations are gone through to get out to that timespan?

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Posted
  • Location: Currently Southminster, Essex (but original home town Northampton)
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow/Blizzards in Winter, Cool Summers. (I'm allergic to heat)!
  • Location: Currently Southminster, Essex (but original home town Northampton)

Not really. Can you imagine how many iterations of calculations are gone through to get out to that timespan?

 

Oh, don't get me wrong kq, i do expect 'some' differences at Days 5/6, there always is, but the scale of these differences at the moment is something we've not seen for quite some time.

Edited by SE Blizzards
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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

I've been keeping an eye on the London ECM ensembles the past two days. What usually happens has indeed happened again - when the op is consistent, the mean eventually moves towards it, not the other way round. . Mean values for next weekend were much colder yesterday, but now creeping up (though spreads are still huge for such a short range)

www.weathercast.co.uk/services/ensemble-forecast.html

Still a few runs to give GFS(P) a run for its money in terms of cold, and still plenty of runs going colder long term, though the impressive clustering has gone.

And yes, I haven't got a clue what will precisely happen between T120 and T180, and I doubt anyone on this forum would dare suggest they know with too much confidence! One of the 18z runs had 5 lows on it in a line from the Azores to the Faroes at around T120, what on earth was that all about?!?!

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Posted
  • Location: Milton Keynes
  • Location: Milton Keynes

Much as there is an overall improvement at 192 on the GFS (Op, P and Control) there is not much support in the ensemble.

OP

post-9179-0-10729400-1419207271_thumb.pn

 

P

post-9179-0-46730600-1419207360_thumb.pn

 

Control

post-9179-0-52440900-1419207382_thumb.pn

 

Ensemble mean

post-9179-0-77603400-1419207441_thumb.pn

 

and spread - op and control outliers

 

post-9179-0-55630700-1419207465_thumb.gi

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Posted
  • Location: Currently Southminster, Essex (but original home town Northampton)
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow/Blizzards in Winter, Cool Summers. (I'm allergic to heat)!
  • Location: Currently Southminster, Essex (but original home town Northampton)

Much as there is an overall improvement at 192 on the GFS (Op, P and Control) there is not much support in the ensemble.

OP

attachicon.gifgfs-0-192.png

 

P

attachicon.gifgfs-0-192 (1).png

 

Control

attachicon.gifgens-0-1-192.png

 

Ensemble mean

attachicon.gifgens-21-1-192.png

 

and spread - op and control outliers

 

attachicon.gifgraphe3_1000_288_104___.gif

 

Ah yeah, that maybe so, but we all seen what happened recently when the ECM op was going for the milder option and most of it's members we're going for the colder one. Some of the ECM members are now jumping ship and are starting to follow it to the milder camp.

 

Could it be that the GFS op/ GFS(p) have called this one right, then after a while the GFS Ens will end up following them!?

 

Remember, the main runs are run at a higher res than the Ens... (i think)

Edited by SE Blizzards
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Posted
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos

I remember numerous debates about so-called outliers. i.e. they weren't true outliers unless they were truly out on their own. No ensemble members were allowed to touch or crossover. Now and again, (rarely), true or "semi" -true outliers actually lead the way. In times when nothing else seems to be leading the way, I'd head outwards to the edges. Boundaries are completely blurred, anyway, so what's the harm?

 

It's left-field. I'm good with that and so is my eye.

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