Model Output Discussion; into 2015

[pdiddy]

I'm happy with what the models are currently showing. I'd like the entire rest of the Winter to be snow and frost-free.

Not sure you will escape a frost with 850s averaging sub zero in Edinburgh once the milder interlude occurs...

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=&ext=1&y=&run=18&lat=55.95854251&lon=-3.220&runpara=0

[Dunstable Snow]

Well back on Saturday after the 12z I expressed some optimism regarding what the ECM was showing in its later stages given the other much touted background signals. Sad to say that this optimism has dissipated rather rapidly for now ! Certainly not giving up on the rest of January let alone winter but I am struggling to stomach the MOD output at the present time ( I have tried laughing at it but it just doesn't work for me I'm afraid !). Its a shame because when the models get into a run like this the life and excitement within this forum drains away very quickly. The lack of postings from many of the big hitters is a clear evidence of this but hats off to those who continue to post despite finding the whole situation rather frustrating. 

 

Time for me to take a break from viewing the ops and ensembles. I will keep an eye on the strat output and the METO 16-30 day and tentatively come back to the ops if things look like taking a turn for the better.

 

Happy new year to one and all.

[Ali1977]

Too much negativity , there will be a big flip in the 12z's, the signs of strat warming and wave 2 activity have to start showing some northern blocking very soon. Not sure blocking will help these shores but be interesting to view.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Posted by BLAST FROM THE PAST on 20 December 2014 - 11:15  in Forecasting Model Discussion

....will it all flip again?  My money is on transient.  However, I spoke of the colder attack would probably need more than one bite at the cherry and I think we'll get this cold northerly blast after Xmas towards NY but a short event rather than prolonged.

Well the way my LRF has gone with December being miles milder and miles flatter than expected....I'm a tad concerned that my average [to touch mild] January may become a blow torch!! :w00t:

 

Part of a pre-Christmas post.  I was hopeful of a possible cold pattern change arriving when models hinted at blocking to NE and Ed's and Tony's LRF reasoning.  However, this PV has been very resilient and I think my thoughts of Jan are looking more likely than not as its IMO going to take  SSW to knock this PV out of the ring.  I am concerned that we may have to put up with a lengthy very mild period rather than just mild, but seeing the Atlantic cold pool to our WSW it may make it Iess mild but a flow from W to S quadrant likely to dominate.  I have suggested a SSW for early to mid Jan period [mid Jan fav] and for Feb as the coldest month.  Although things can change quickly this winter is defying some very good early signals....and I know we aren't even in January yet but there are no 'tangible' signs of any real change to come neartime?   Hold on to your hats, it may get bumpy for coldies for a while 

Just want to add this chart in, 

 

 

Some areas and altitude may get lucky.  Its probably not mild all the way, just no blocked deep cold likely....bit like December really....hasn't been a bad month

 

So a busy working time ahead for me over New Year so HNY everyone and let's see what 2015 brings....still 2/3rds of winter to go.  Last night here I had a reading of -6c.....and its still cold so its been a very wintry period so IMO not bad at all. 

 

regards

 

BFTP

Edited December 30, 2014 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Timmytour]

If asked to create the most hideous winter chart I could imagine, I might simply copy and paste this chart :-)

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=240&mode=0&runpara=1

That is so bad that it's actually pretty funny :-)

I suppose the best thing about this is that it simply doesn't get worse than that one, so quite literally the only way is up!

But it's not a million miles away from this one for the 17th Jan 1947....

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/slp/1947/Rslp19470117.gif

When there's nowt but hope, then push that hope for all it's worth!!!

[JOPRO]

Some poor runs this morning, am desperately looking for the NAVGEM (RIP) for a straw to clutch! Oh well on to the afternoon and evening runs it is then.

[nick sussex]

Normally at this point we go into " emergency straw clutching mode" which entails either pulling out a wintry looking GEFS member or linking to one of the less than reliable models!

 

Sadly theres none to be found there! In terms of the ECM ensembles, after sending out the search party we managed to find a few rogue members which avoided the PV carnage:

 

At day 12 it looks like 2 avoided the bloodbath, this increases to around 5 from day 14!

 

http://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagseverwachting/?r=midden&type=eps_pluim

 

In light of recent events my Cold Synoptics Warning System has been pulled until further notice! I'm still debating what to replace it with!

Edited December 30, 2014 by nick sussex

[Jason M]

I clicked on that link determined to find something to cling to, some redeeming feature. "It can't be that bad" I thought. But you're right, it's a disgusting chart if you are looking for cold.

I still think later in Jan may bring something far better though, we just have to ride out this boring Atlantic period in the meantime.....

Maybe for the 12z runs we could have a competition to see who can pick out the worst winter chart of the evening. The key criteria would be that if such a chart were to come to pass it would effectively take at least 15 days to get to a position where we could see a major cold spell. I'm guessing Steve Murr is still ducking in and out in the background so maybe Steve or Nick Sussex to judge the winner?

Might just raise the spirits a bit this evening with a bit of fun (and offer a distraction from the recent nit picking). Also, as a bit of reverse psychology it's surely genius :-)

although from the 06z run, I challenge anyone to beat my earlier offering! Remember it's not the warmest chart, it's the one that offers the least hope going forward (as actually some warm charts can be fantastic for future prospects). We're looking for the chart that causes even Frosty to put out the white flag of surrender :-)

[craigore]

Its December?? January is 4 weeks long and people forget that quite a few have had snow,which nobody saw coming through December.Chill people.

You may of had snow , the vast majority of us didn't , hence my post, im not writing off winter just portraying the long term { heart of winter  ) not going according to seasonal prediction.. how ever way youd like to dress it up..

 

I remain hopeful like so many..

[nick sussex]

It's currently the 30th December, many of us have already seen falling and laying snow. For those of us in the North, we've had laying snow since boxing day. In the UK in December, that is actually a pretty good result. The models show the next 16 days to be zonal with temperatures around average, but in reality from day 10 onwards the charts will change everyday. So at most, we can have confidence in what the next 7 days will be like. There have been numerous occasions where the outlook has drastically changed in just a couple of days. As people have already said, when the outlook is showing cold, anything after day 4 is uncertain, yet when the models are showing zonal conditions the models are apparently completely accurate throughout it's run. In a weeks time, we will probably be looking at completely different charts, just like we were a week ago today.

The problem is Barry that model reliability goes up in zonal conditions. It's frustrating because at that point you don't want the models to be reliable!

 

The only remotely interesting chart at day ten is the ECM which is hardly even that great from a cold perspective but miles better than anything else on show. Whether that survives to tonight we'll have to wait and see.

 

In terms of laying snow I accept the last few days has been okay for some parts of the UK and already beats last winters dismal attempts however theres an awful lot of people who are still waiting for their first snow flake since March 2013.

 

Models of course can change so lets hope that's sooner rather than later, its best IMO to just write off the next ten days, start from a position of its likely to be rather underwhelming and if something pops up great.

 

If not then we have to hope that the forecasted second strat warming is enough to change things. The PV seems to have built up a forcefield, hopefully that will finally at least dislodge it from its current winter residence!

Edited December 30, 2014 by nick sussex

[Blizzardof82]

Don't despair coldies 1947 didn't get going until late mid January, all eyes down for the 12z's and chins up and happy new year to all :smiliz19:

[craigore]

The problem is Barry that model reliability goes up in zonal conditions. It's frustrating because at that point you don't want the models to be reliable!

 

The only remotely interesting chart at day ten is the ECM which is hardly even that great from a cold perspective but miles better than anything else on show. Whether that survives to tonight we'll have to wait and see.

 

In terms of laying snow I accept the last few days has been okay for some parts of the UK and already beats last winters dismal attempts however theres an awful lot of people who are still waiting for their first snow flake since March 2013.

 

Models of course can change so lets hope that's sooner rather than later, its best IMO to just write off the next ten days, start from a position of its likely to be rather underwhelming and if something pops up great.

 

If not then we have to hope that the forecasted second strat warming is enough to change things. The PV seems to have built up a forcefield, hopefully that will finally at least dislodge it from its current winter residence!

couldn't of said it better myself and like you remain optimistic ..

[karyo]

Maybe for the 12z runs we could have a competition to see who can pick out the worst winter chart of the evening. The key criteria would be that if such a chart were to come to pass it would effectively take at least 15 days to get to a position where we could see a major cold spell. I'm guessing Steve Murr is still ducking in and out in the background so maybe Steve or Nick Sussex to judge the winner?

Might just raise the spirits a bit this evening with a bit of fun (and offer a distraction from the recent nit picking). Also, as a bit of reverse psychology it's surely genius :-)

although from the 06z run, I challenge anyone to beat my earlier offering! Remember it's not the warmest chart, it's the one that offers the least hope going forward (as actually some warm charts can be fantastic for future prospects). We're looking for the chart that causes even Frosty to put out the white flag of surrender :-)

Maybe we can start with the latest CFS NAO forecast : http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/macritch/naoindex.png

 

I know this is quite volatile and can easily change but it has been persistently showing a + NAO January which now stretches into February. Also, interesting to see how little in the way of -NAO we've had since November!

[bluearmy]

Always a terrible sign for coldies when '47 and '63 appear in the MOD.

Nick - I think the GEFS in general show a decent trop polar profile response in two weeks. Given they don't go to the top of the strat a response to the warming strat with a more fragmented trop vortex seems the least we will see for week 3.

[winterof79]

Sorry to dissapoint some people....but winter got under way last Friday teatime.Its been cold every day since.Honest,i have been outside to see for myself.

http://www.climate4you.com/images/RecentSnowCoverEuropeAsia.gif

 

Unfortunately when it snows not eveyone experiences it,very much the same as when it rains.That will never change.

Edited December 30, 2014 by winterof79

[nick sussex]

couldn't of said it better myself and like you remain optimistic ..

Thanks

 

As we saw before Christmas model reliability normally goes down when any sort of colder synoptics are suggested, the NWP loves zonal conditions because they can improve their monthly verification stats!

 

To use an analogy for football lovers out there, sometimes you get that striker who only ever manages to score when your team is already 1 or 2 nil ahead. When push comes to shove they would fluff that goal chance!

 

Not sure how many Arsenal supporters are out there but Carlos Vela was often referred to as Plus 1 on some forums, only ever added to the goal tally but was woeful if presented with a chance at 0-0!

 

Much can be said of NWP, generally zonal patterns are just much easier to forecast, colder that bit more complex where they shoot wide in front of goal!

[Duane S.]

Maybe for the 12z runs we could have a competition to see who can pick out the worst winter chart of the evening. The key criteria would be that if such a chart were to come to pass it would effectively take at least 15 days to get to a position where we could see a major cold spell. I'm guessing Steve Murr is still ducking in and out in the background so maybe Steve or Nick Sussex to judge the winner?

Might just raise the spirits a bit this evening with a bit of fun (and offer a distraction from the recent nit picking). Also, as a bit of reverse psychology it's surely genius :-)

although from the 06z run, I challenge anyone to beat my earlier offering! Remember it's not the warmest chart, it's the one that offers the least hope going forward (as actually some warm charts can be fantastic for future prospects). We're looking for the chart that causes even Frosty to put out the white flag of surrender :-)

I know it was meant in a light hearted fashion but even so. Picking out one 500 / 850mb tropospheric chart, on its own, to rule out a major cold spell 2 weeks from it is flawed. Even more so when the chart used is over 10 days away!

Timmytours example above is a good one. A pretty dreary outlook if looking at this chart on just it's own...

Roll on a week and not only do we have this...

We also have getting underway one of the greatest winters of the 20th century for cold and snow in the UK.

[Nick F]

You know the outlook's not looking good when we are putting all our eggs in one basket and pinning our hopes on strat warming to change our fortunes - which comes with no guarantees.

Unfortunately there are no other 'drivers' other than the strat that look favourable atm to change the pattern to favour sustained cold and wintry weather for the UK.

The MJO is currently in an unfavourable position for blocking, it looks like moving through 5 and 6, though there are question marks over whether it will reach more favourable 7/8/1 later in January. Most model guidance takes MJO into the circle of death once it gets to 5- 6 / this happened earlier this month and there seems to be this habit this winter of the MJO dying before it gets to the Dateline, so it looks to do the same in January – so this driver looks to be dead in the water this winter for now.

ENSO continues to be rather weak, pointers are still towards a weak El Nino in 2015, but if anything, the northern hemispheric circulation is behaving more like a La Nina state, with the strong +NAO/AO and +PNA/-EPO pattern continuing for at least the next 10-15 days.

We have been in a –QBO since July, which a lot of research suggests can influence toward a weaker stratospheric polar vortex, though thus far we have still yet to see these effects! If anything, the QBO appears to be more useful in correlating the strength Pacific jet stream, a strong Pacific jet is evident this month so far, combined with a –EPO/+AO teleconnect to a SE ridge over N America and the cold vortex stuck over NE Canada and Greenland over the coming days = +ve AO and NAO and a mobile Atlantic conveyor of lows for northern Europe. So, QBO not really working in our favour either for now!

Remember the much touted highly anomalous SAI (Snow Advance Index) and SCE (Snow Cover Extent) – plus not forgetting the OPI (October Pattern Index) pointing a -AO this winter, well, the results from these seems rather muted too. Though, even the scientists behind these indices admit that the correlations are not bullet-proof.

So where does this leave us? There’s every possibility IMO that we could be stuck with the +AO/NAO for much of January and all that entails. Potential SSW certainly has grounds to develop and then work in our favour, but then it may not, so try not to be drawn by the hype. SSW or not, other drivers, like MJO and ENSO could come in to play more favourably to change the pattern for cold/snow. Certainly there are plenty of indicators to a much higher chance of a spell of sustained cold wintry weather than last winter, which is not difficult, but be prepared for perhaps a late show for a widespread cold and snowy spell(s) this winter, maybe late Jan and through Feb IMHO.

Edited December 30, 2014 by Nick F

[Jason M]

Also, with a zonal set up the actual weather on the ground doesn't get noticed so much. For instance if GFS plots rain for Friday and it just ends up cloudy, nobody cares. If it plots an easterly in London and the high pressure to our North ends up being just 200 miles south thereby killing all convection, everybody who watches these things cares a lot!

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 06z mean paints a very unsettled picture once the current anticyclonic spell ends in a day or so, it looks mild, wet and windy but with colder, clearer and showery incursions with snow on hills, especially northern UK and frosty nights during quieter interludes of which there will be some due to the pattern being for ridges to follow depressions continually. This winter is already a cut above the last one because of the current cold spell alone. The mean trends a little colder towards the end.

Edited December 30, 2014 by Frosty.

[Duane S.]

You know the outlook's not looking good when we are putting all our eggs in one basket and pinning our hopes on strat warming to change our fortunes - which comes with no guarantees.

 

Unfortunately there are  no other 'drivers' other than the strat that look favourable atm to change the pattern to favour sustained cold and wintry weather for the UK.

 

The MJO is currently in an unfavourable position for blocking, it looks like moving through 5 and 6, though there are question marks over whether it will reach more favourable 7/8/1 later in January. Most model guidance takes MJO into the circle of death once it gets to 5- 6 / this happened earlier this month and there seems to be this habit this winter of the MJO dying before it gets to the Dateline, so it looks to do the same in January – so this driver looks to be dead in the water this winter for now.

 

ENSO continues to be rather weak, pointers are still towards a weak El Nino in 2015, but if anything, the northern hemispheric circulation is behaving more like a La Nina state, with the strong +NAO/AO and +PDO/-EPO pattern continuing for at least the next 10-15 days.

 

We have been in a –QBO since July, which a lot of research suggests can influence toward a weaker stratospheric polar vortex, though thus far we have still yet to see these effects! If anything, the QBO appears to be more useful in correlating the strength Pacific jet stream, a strong Pacific jet is evident this month so far, combined with a –EPO/+AO teleconnect to a SE ridge over N America and the cold vortex stuck over NE Canada and Greenland over the coming days = +ve AO and NAO and a mobile Atlantic conveyor of lows for northern Europe. So, QBO not really working in our favour either for now!

 

Remember the much touted highly anomalous SAI (Snow Advance Index) and SCE (Snow Cover Extent) – plus not forgetting the OPI (October Pattern Index) pointing a -AO this winter, well, the results from these seems rather muted too. Though, even the scientists behind these indices admit that the correlations are not bullet-proof.

 

So where does this leave us? There’s every possibility IMO that we could be stuck with the +AO/NAO for much of January and all that entails. Potential SSW certainly has grounds to develop and then work in our favour, but then it may not, so try not to be drawn by the hype. SSW or not, other drivers, like MJO and ENSO could come in to play more favourably to change the pattern for cold/snow. Certainly there are plenty of indicators to a much higher chance of a spell of sustained cold wintry weather than last winter, which is not difficult, but be prepared for perhaps a late show for  a widespread cold and snowy spell(s) this winter, maybe late Jan and through Feb IMHO.

Can't argue with any of that! I think the MJO could come to our rescue though. Phase 5 is always problematic both in terms of poor forecasting and actuality as this is often where it drops into the dreaded COD, I think this is due to the topography of the Indonesia vicinity. But it works the other way sometimes with the MJO emerging into the Pacific in a much stronger amplitude than forecast going into 4/5.

[Jason M]

Hi Lancia

1947, 1963, 1987, 1991 all get quoted in here on a regular basis every winter but they were really just freak situations. It's sort of like planning your Christmas spending based on an assumption that you will win the lottery jackpot. For every one of those charts that led to such a situation, the archives will hold literally thousands that just went on to deliver nothing whatsoever. If it were down to me (which thankfully it's not!) they would be added to the swear filter :-), or at least have their own threads.

Still most of winter to go, so who knows what will happen. It may just be one of those years where it's essentially a mildish winter with one cold spell in late jan or feb. I can't believe that I will see two snowless winters in a row having last year seen my first completely snowless winter in my 43 years. Indeed 2014 will end up as a snowless calendar year here.

Lots of time yet, things can change quickly, it's a game of two halves, etc etc :-)

We can still have a bit of fun with what is currently looking a boring couple of weeks though.

Edited December 30, 2014 by Jason M

[Duane S.]

Hi Lancia

1947, 1963, 1987, 1991 all get quoted in here on a regular basis every winter but they were really just freak situations. It's sort of like planning your Christmas spending based on an assumption that you will win the lottery jackpot. For every one of those charts that led to such a situation, the archives will hold literally thousands that just went on to deliver nothing whatsoever. If it were down to me (which thankfully it's not!) they would be added to the swear filter :-), or at least have there own threads.

Still most of winter to go, so who knows what will happen. It may just be one of those years where it's essentially a mildish winter with one cold spell in late jan or feb. I can't believe that I will see two snowless winters in a row having last year seen my first completely snowless winter in my 43 years. Indeed 2014 will end up as a snowless calendar year here.

Lots of time yet, things can change quickly, it's a game of two halves, etc etc :-)

We can still have a bit of fun with what is currently looking a boring couple of weeks though.

Absolutely and it sort of reinforces my point in that every one of those famous winter cold spells stated, had they happened in the internet era, we would likely have had a fair idea they were coming from all the various background signals / drivers but not necessarily from preceding trop charts.

As you say though, early days still and I'm sure we'd all take a mild next 3 weeks in order to get a cold spell come the end of Jan.

As for snowless winters, much more common than not down here! :-)

[phil nw.]

It's been a nice little cold spell with quite widespread frosts and crisp sunny days for many of us since Christmas so for me the impending change will be disappointing as the high slips away se.

There is no need for me to post any charts to underline the outlook for the next 10-14 days as this has already been well illustrated and explained by many other members today.

I think we all know a prolonged spell of blocking in favour of UK cold is not currently on the agenda so it is more a case of looking for any buckling of the jet which turns the flow more north westerly behind a passing low to the north.

The best we have showing in the reliable appears between T72hrs and T96hrs on the 06z GFS which brings more snow to the north,mainly higher up as the cold front passes through.

Another colder shot again likely a few days later-day 7- after a milder interlude but in all honesty the overall pattern is very strongly +AO/+NAO(low pressure to the north,high pressure to the south) so really it is just a bog standard typical UK changeable westerly set up for now.

It really is a case of gritting our teeth while we wait for some further changes,even if it is only more ridging upstream of the jet to give us a chance of a transient Arctic spell.

[Long haul to mild]

Maybe we can start with the latest CFS NAO forecast : http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/macritch/naoindex.png

 

I know this is quite volatile and can easily change but it has been persistently showing a + NAO January which now stretches into February. Also, interesting to see how little in the way of -NAO we've had since November!

I think the CFS is an awful model that is consistently getting it wrong so I take heart from that forecast!

I still haven't forgiven it for the pathetic attempt at forecasting the early part of last winter, its rubbish predictions led to those awful newspaper stories of months of snow....