Model Output Discussion; into 2015

[nick sussex]

As everyones seen today if they've been following the thread I have been in emergency straw clutching mode as we were faced with some pretty miserable looking( from a cold perspective) medium term outputs this morning!

 

So in keeping with my current headspace we move onto to level 2 straw clutching mode:

 

 

You'll see the ECM developing a shortwave circled red this is in response to the ridge to the ne, given its at T144hrs theres still room for changes.

 

This shortwave needs to eject se further west with those low heights held further to the nw, this might allow the ridge to back a bit more further sw.

 

We're still dealing with a rampant PV so the odds are still stacked against us but just something to look out for in future outputs.

 

Even if the ridge eventually gets pushed away this could still impact the angle of the Atlantic attack by taking the jet more se rather than east.

Edited December 31, 2014 by nick sussex

[Cloud 10]

As everyones seen today if they've been following the thread I have been in emergency straw clutching mode as we were faced with some pretty miserable looking( from a cold perspective) medium term outputs this morning!

 

So in keeping with my current headspace we move onto to level 2 straw clutching mode:

 

ECH1-144.gif

 

You'll see the ECM developing a shortwave circled red this is in response to the ridge to the ne, given its at T144hrs theres still room for changes.

 

This shortwave needs to eject se further west with those low heights held further to the nw, this might allow the ridge to back a bit more further sw.

 

We're still dealing with a rampant PV so the odds are still stacked against us but just something to look out for in future outputs, .

 

A slight improvement on yesterday's 168 hrs output,and if nothing else a potent cold pool heading for Eastern Europe which could come in handy down the line.

 

yesterday..  today..

 

[Captain Shortwave]

A slight improvement on yesterday's 168 hrs output,and if nothing else a potent cold pool heading for Eastern Europe which could come in handy down the line.

 

yesterday..ECH1-168.gif  today..ECH1-144.gif

 

ECM0-144.gif

We have a cold pool over Eastern Europe which seemed large enough to allow heights to build over the top from Boxing day. So I remain dubious that we could do it this time. Still it's nice to have a little hope for something better.

Before then the weekend low could give some snowfall over the higher routes in northern England and maybe wet snow to low levels if the system takes a favourable course. Beyond that a drier spell before low pressure bears down on us from the west and whatever fun and games that could bring.

[Geordiesnow]

I must be the only one who is slightly encouraged by recent developments of heights coming from the Arctic that is on our side of the pole! Admittedly I havant been viewing the models too much but from what I seen, any height rises has been mainly over the pole and over on the Pacific side of the Arctic with very little to shout about in the Svalbard region but now things seem to be changing. Yes, the PV still looks very strong but don't underestimate those height rises because they can be more stubborn than they appear. 

 

The chances of cold from the East are still quite low but I am a little bit more encouraged with what I am seeing here, now if we can back things a bit more westwards then things could get more interesting for sure. 

 

Even if you don't get it right stright away, aslong the height rises and the potential deep cold pool is still there, there is still time for things to fall into place and any cold shot from the East will still be cold enough. I much rather see this than some poorly alinged Russian high pumping up milder air into Scandi and Russia and into Svalbard where it looks like any meaningful cold is miles off. 

[Frosty.]

Saturday looks a pretty cold and wintry day in central and northern areas, 522 dam in north. With all the talk of mild weather, this is nice to see.

Edited December 31, 2014 by Frosty.

[Mucka]

Saturday looks a pretty cold and wintry day in central and northern areas, 522 dam in north. With all the talk of mild weather, this is nice to see.

 

It is but I think those on low ground in the Midlands hoping for a repeat of the recent rain/snow event will be disappointed.

Places further North with some elevation may see snow, Sheffield looks like a prime spot again.

Last time, here in south Manchester, we got a fairly brief period of heavy wet snow before it turned back to sleet but I expect all rain this time unless we manage to drag colder uppers in and further South than currently modelled.

Edited December 31, 2014 by Mucka

[Frosty.]

Further into FI the Ecm 12z op run shows further short bursts of cold air sweeping across the UK, especially the north. So a real mixed bag of weather, some short lived frosty ridges, spells of milder, wet and windy weather and bursts of cold and showery weather with snow, especially on hills in the north.

Happy New Year to everyone associated with Netweather..I hope the heart of winter 2014 / 15 will see a marked pattern change to wintry weather..all the coldies should drink to that. :-)

Edited December 31, 2014 by Frosty.

[marksp]

It is but I think those on low ground in the Midlands hoping for a repeat of the recent rain/snow event will be disappointed.

Places further North with some elevation may see snow, Sheffield looks like a prime spot again.

Last time, here in south Manchester, we got a fairly brief period of heavy wet snow before it turned back to sleet but I expect all rain this time unless we manage to drag colder uppers in and further South than currently modelled.

 

it looks as if Peak District could be in firing line again, that's if current track stops same. Plenty of elevation

[Mair Snaw]

it looks as if Peak District could be in firing line again, that's if current track stops same. Plenty of elevation

Im sure I could go for a 2nd round of what we had boxing day.....bring it on I say...

[nick sussex]

My final post of 2014!

 

The ECM spreads show a large divergence on days 9 and 10, and allied with the operational run being a mild outlier at that stage it looks like a cluster of solutions keep the Azores high displaced further to the west.

 

The short De Bilt ensembles:

 

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/Data/PLUIM_06260_NWT.png

 

Happy New Year to all, see you in 2015 .

[lorenzo]

Last few days / week have proved grim viewing for folks and have read and taken into account all the feedback on the thread, thought it best to do an update on Winter Forecast so far located here. 

 

 

[Man With Beard]

ECM T144 has been discussed well already, but T168 interests me too. The heights over Scandinavia and Russia appear as if they might want to connect. T192 puts a stop to that, but if a link up did happen, it could promote a push from Siberia towards North-Eastern Europe and might even be a game changer for the winter.

Obviously this idea has no model support at all right now, and the focus of forecasters is rightly on how wet/windy it might get in the next ten days. But most winters in my experience have an incidence where northern heights are slightly underplayed in the mid-term, so hopefully this will be another of those instances? Take last January for example - an innocuous area of heights nearly took the house down. It started like this; on 5th January, GFS forecast for 10th January (T120):

A little area of heights off Greenland - but this was forecast to disappear by 12th January (T168):

But the area of heights stuck around a little longer and eventually became this (see Scandi High):

A reminder of how, in the worst winter for cold/snow I can remember (for 25 years at least anyway), we got incredibly close at one point to a snowfest, and all out of very humble beginnings. 

 

So I suppose what I would be looking for in the morning is the Scandi High to be slightly stronger (1035-1040mb), a sense of a split in the flow to the west of this Scandi High (if enough energy can go south, it may prop up a Scandi High) and heights over Russia to start to cut off a portion of the PV over the Moscow area. Not asking for too much, am I

 

Well it's that or it's a stormy early January!! The smart money right now, of course, is on the latter.

[Frosty.]

 

it looks like a cluster of solutions keep the Azores high displaced further to the west.

 

It will be a happy New year if that occurs, come on ecm, don't let us down..lol

[phil nw.]

There is enough uncertainty in the shorter term modelling to hope that the first half of January will be far from zonal.

Certainly operational runs have continued to hint at some ridging towards Scandinavia which if it verified could result in a far different outlook in week 2.

At this stage,based on the later 12z frames,it still looks temporary and the Atlantic should win through but if modelling moves another step towards this through the next 24hrs then we could be looking at a holding ridge with the jet splitting sending some energy into Europe.

Things then would become very interesting.

 

At least today's runs have perhaps raised the spirits a little for cold seekers so let's hope for something positive tomorrow.

 

Talking of spirits i would like to raise a glass to everyone and wish you all a very Happy New Year.    

 

[Polar Maritime]

Yes Happy New Year Phil, The Team, And all NetWeather Forum Members, Where would we be without us all to make up this fantastic community !    

Edited December 31, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[john mac]

Happy new year to everyone on the forum. Here's to a healthy prosperous and snowy 2015!!!

[john mac]

Just checked something out! The weather in Northern Finland is very mild at -1c at the moment, however by day 5 temperatures will not get above -18c. This could coincide with the possible ridging into Scandinavia.

[Continental Climate]

Happy new year  hopefully a nice snowy end to winter as well!!!

[Frosty.]

2nd day in a row the 00z runs have been awful for coldies but then improved by the 12z. I hope 2015 brings an end to Atlantic dominance and enables blocking to develop favourably, two cr*p winters in a row won't go down too well on here, let's hope for a big change soon !!

[bluearmy]

better split jet profile at day 7 on the 18z gfsp. incoming trough negatively tilted for the time being. maybe we should leave it there because its bound to go downhill .....

 

happy new year to all

[itsnowjoke]

Happy New year peeps

[TEITS]

Always have hope when a chart like below occurs.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rpgfs2161.gif

[legritter]

I would like to raise a glass to all our posters ,waiting for good weather synoptics can be very frustrating ,that big nasty atlantic to our left seems to laugh at us very frequently and our pain in our side mr azores needs to take a holiday .but i feel we are still in with a good chance with plenty of winter left .so Happy new year to all ,and a happy new year to our new model       .

[Woollymummy]

Happy New Year, how addictive will the weather watching be in 2015, I wonder? Thankyou for all your informative predictions and ramblings, my family think it is all a silly waste of time but they were suitably impressed that the 26th/27th storm showed up in the end. At times it seems best to go back to what I used to do (looking out of the window ) but learning to understand the models is great fun.

[blizzard81]

A very happy and peaceful new year to all. Lets hope the brand new year brings some much deserved proper winter charts.