Model Output Discussion - Stormy Period Inbound...

[Weather Boy]

Regarding the gfs. Isn't it know that the 06z doesn't have as much info and balloon data input. So perhaps those eye candy runs this morning were on thin ice so to speak. Now I've heard on here many times that the 12z is a more reliable output. So perhaps it is nearer the money. To me it looks abit like a northerly toppler showing this evening. This would bring us around 5 days of cold. So much better than we saw last year. As ever Easterleys are so difficult to achive in the uk. I have seen these disappear at t48. Anyway onto the ECM see what it thinks.

 

According to Fergie (I think it was: if it wasn't it was one of the professionals on here) all this stuff about less balloon data and "the pub run" etc is a complete myth and there is no GFS run that is better or worse than any other.

[Mucka]

GFS parallel at day 6

Cold again with heights to our north.

The outlook does look complex with low pressure close by. It really depends at the moment on the direction of the flow to determine whether we get rain or snow. 

 

You kept that the parallel was out quiet, you little tinker! 

Yes it keeps the faith! 

[winterof79]

12z Summary....All roads lead to cold.Some snowier than others but VERY cold.Somwhere and quite a few places are going to get pasted at this rate.Not able to post charts but I am sure they have been shown.Happy bunnies'?

[snowice]

ECM would be a total snow fest for large swathes of England barring the EXTREME SE of the UK.....

 

Also GFS p still singing the easterly

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfsp/runs/2015011312/gfsnh-0-156.png?12

That lp in the Irish sea on ecm will give us a lot of snow on eastcoast over here something for everyone on this run!

[John Snow]

Looks like the UK heading into the freezer in the next few days and staying in it for a considerable time, looks pretty cast in stone now that there will be a severe spell of weather

Both ECM and GFS (P) would result in snow cover not seen since Dec 2010

Party time

[Mucka]

ECM would be a total snow fest for large swathes of England barring the EXTREME SE of the UK.....

 

Also GFS p still singing the easterly

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfsp/runs/2015011312/gfsnh-0-156.png?12

 

 

Do you mean extreme SW Steve?

 

Edit.

I see Blu said the snowcover map misses out the SE so I guess not. Thought you might be referring to less cold uppers for the SW in mid term.

Edited January 13, 2015 by Mucka

[nick sussex]

The GFS P was worth the wait, its like opposing football teams you'll be cheering on either the ECM or GFS P depending on your location.

[SMU]

Final one for a while - sorry for monopolising!!!

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015011312/ECH1-216.GIF?13-0

 

216 sees another purge of heights moving NE! not SE so the cold will be there on the ECM out to day 10 again.

 

S

[Gustywind]

You kept that the parallel was out quiet, you little tinker! 

Yes it keeps the faith!

Bit of a Jan-13 look about that chart, around the same time of the month also. Weakish heights around Iceland but strong enough to slide lows across western side of UK, keeping the majority in cold air.

Saw 2 decent snowfalls in the space of 3 days in that setup.

[Smiler1709]

So the big question is..... Has the gfs 12z picked up a new trend or is it going in the bin to await more runs?

[nick sussex]

Looks like theres going to be a huge improvement for the ski resorts across Europe with either the ECM or GFS P. Indeed across much of central western mainland Europe it looks like the heaviest snow of the winter so far.

[Mucka]

In among all that excitement it may have got missed that Euro4 looks pretty good for parts of Southern England to see snow over next 24h.

Bristol looks like a snow magnet as usual.

 

[AWD]

Bristol looks like a snow magnet as usual

Are we talking about the same Bristol that I've lived in for the last 10 years???

[Mucka]

Are we talking about the same Bristol that I've lived in for the last 10 years???

 

Well I'm basing that off reports from Matty over the years over at Two. Had some heavy falls in recent years no?

Good luck anyway.

Edited January 13, 2015 by Mucka

[damianslaw]

I talked about Jetstream forecasts yesterday and today they continue to show a southerly tracking jet way out to the end of the month, heights strong to the NE. ECM showing what GFS was yesterday, heights building Iceland region forcing trough disruption early next week and thereafter a light easterly drift with heights building strongly to the NE, combined with a weakened jet any low pressure development will be forced under the high - slider territory, very Jan 2013 esque. GFS doing its usual playing around with the scenarios.

 

UKMO also showing heights building over Iceland on Sunday.

 

Trend from the models continue to paint towards a more sustained colder period of weather.

 

Could we be seeing the effects of the warming over the Stratosphere - timescales would appear to say so.

[AWD]

Well I'm basing that off reports from Matty over the years over at Two. Had some heavy falls in recent years no?

Good luck anyway.

A couple but taking the UK as a whole, I definetly wouldn't think of Bristol when talking about "snow magnets".

Anyway, best get back in topic.

A lot of places, not just Bristol, would see some falls of notable snow sometime next week of the EC 12z Det verified.

[snowsummer]

As in still learning slowly Can anyone help me as to steves post about no snow in south east I think I can kind of see why. But what would have to change for us to get snow? Sorry to be imby but my part of essex (thurrock) always seems to miss out. Thanks in advance

Edited January 13, 2015 by snowsummer

[Nick L]

The latest Euro4 snow charts would certainly explain why the snow warnings from the Met Office have been extended eastwards.

 

The ECM doesn't go for it at all, however. But the ECM has been poor when it comes to modelling showers I've found.

 

Everyone is looking to the distant future for wintry stuff, it's on the doorstep for many!

[Eugene]

So the big question is..... Has the gfs 12z picked up a new trend or is it going in the bin to await more runs?

 

 

As GFS comes up with new trends daily, who knows, but my guess is it will change again by tomorrow.

[Nouska]

So the big question is..... Has the gfs 12z picked up a new trend or is it going in the bin to await more runs?

 

The fondness for 'binning' model runs is one of my pet hates - only on this occasion can it be literally used - very last 12Z for the dear old GFS. It has done good service, let's hope the new version will be an improvement on the road to greater model reliability and surrounds its birth in the joy of a nationwide cold spell.

[nick sussex]

As in still learning slowly Can anyone help me as to steves post about no snow in south east I think I can kind of see why. But what would have to change for us to get snow? Sorry to be imby but my part of essex (thurrock) always seems to miss out. Thanks in advance

It's really not worth worrying about at this stage because the detail will keep on changing. If you're worried about snow then the GFS P would certainly deliver to your area, the ECM is more complicated but even with its trend you'd have to be very unlucky to not see some snow.

[Meggy]

As in still learning slowly Can anyone help me as to steves post about no snow in south east I think I can kind of see why. But what would have to change for us to get snow? Sorry to be imby but my part of essex (thurrock) always seems to miss out. Thanks in advance

Hello, not sure about the answer to your question, but I agree we often miss out when it comes to snow. I'm in South Ockendon. Whereabouts are you?

[Winter Cold]

Im very happy with todays runs, the GFS12z is so far out of kilter with everything else tonight I think we can, thankfully, forget it.

 

Its lovely to have agreement with ECM and UKMO as Steve has shown. That is a massive tick in the cold camp. Its been mentioned a few times that when those two are in agreement they are rarely wrong.

 

Im still very much optimistic tonight. This chart from ECM next Tuesday is lovely, snow for many id have thought

 

[knocker]

Final one for a while - sorry for monopolising!!!

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015011312/ECH1-216.GIF?13-0

 

216 sees another purge of heights moving NE! not SE so the cold will be there on the ECM out to day 10 again.

 

S

 

Not sure I follow that. Not the cold bit but the purge. As far as I can see the low is moving slowly SE with build up of heights to NE.

 

Chart courtesy weatherbell

[ANYWEATHER]

As in still learning slowly Can anyone help me as to steves post about no snow in south east I think I can kind of see why. But what would have to change for us to get snow? Sorry to be imby but my part of essex (thurrock) always seems to miss out. Thanks in advance

Hi ,don't read too much into "any" post in the days ahead where or when people will get snow. The outlook from all models is a cold one, so snow cant be ruled out just about anywhere. If you ask a forecaster what is the most difficult weather to forecast in this country ,it will be Snow, followed by Thunderstorms! Snow can be difficult to predict even within a few hours ahead, so rest assured mother nature will do the rest!