Model Output Discussion - Stormy Period Inbound...

[SMU]

Updated 18z to 108 is aligning the low pressure coming out of the states more NW SE like the euros so it should be better than the 12z,

 

meanwhile the embedded trough I mentioned earlier heads down the western flank of the UK & through Ireland giving snow.... one to watch out for-

Possibly swinging SE in its final tracks across the south

 

Very persistent in the models this one-

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015011318/gfsnh-0-108.png?18

S

Edited January 13, 2015 by Steve Murr

[winterof79]

GFS 18z looking better oop north of us regarding heights compared to 12z

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015011318/gfsnh-0-108.png?18  kinks r us

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015011312/gfsnh-0-114.png?12

 

Welcome back to our party

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015011318/gfsnh-0-120.png?18

Edited January 13, 2015 by winterof79

[Long haul to mild]

It could but it would depend on just where the upper features settled as to it, the big IF that idea is correct, whether the surface flow was NE or more E'ly.

Thanks John, even if it does not come to fruition, it certainly makes a change from hearing about seeming endless zonality as we have been for a while!

[Ali1977]

GFS not looking anywhere near as good as the P/ECM or UKMO at 144, although still cold uppers.

Edited January 13, 2015 by Ali1977

[shaky]

Better than the 12z especially early on!! Think its going to be a slow crawl back to the other models from gfs!!

[winterof79]

Slack flow at 150z low 850s always good for surprise snowfalls

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015011318/gfsnh-0-150.png?18

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015011318/gfsnh-1-150.png?18

Happened a few Februarys ago.Little streamers form in these slack flows.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Better than the 12z especially early on!! Think its going to be a slow crawl back to the other models from gfs!!

 

Azores high spoils party, over by wednesday, hope other models don't pick up on this

[winterof79]

Azores high spoils party, over by wednesday, hope other models don't pick up on this

You could be correct apart from the fact it has not begun yet.GFS 12Z improves on 12z with its evolution.

[NorthernRab]

Azores high spoils party, over by wednesday, hope other models don't pick up on this

I wouldn't be worrying too much about charts 8 days away when there's so much uncertainty at day 5!

[Eugene]

Azores high spoils party, over by wednesday, hope other models don't pick up on this

 

 

Yeah with GFS 18Z runs like that i'm glad it's getting binned from tomorrow night

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Gfs gives a goodbye to cold, At T+240  Ecm refuses to let the cold go.......

ECM has it right.....or more right......westerly return is way too soon

However, major lasting block to NE is not the idea......PV to move our way so trough over Scandi for me to develop ready for feb......

 

BFTP

Edited January 13, 2015 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[blizzard81]

People tend to believe what they want to believe. All I know is that is two gfs op runs on the bounce that downgrade the cold snap in very similar fashion. It would be foolish to discount it. We have after all been here many times before.

[SE Blizzards]

Coldies react after watching the final departing GFS Op pub run turn into a borefest.

 

 

Seriously though, i don't think we should get too disheartened just yet. As long as the UKMO and ECM stay on board then i think we have a fighting chance of this cold spell coming off.

 

All eyes now on the GFS(P) 18Z, (if it ever comes out), and also the 18Z ENS.

Edited January 13, 2015 by SE Blizzards

[fergieweather]

ECM has it right.....or more right......westerly return is way too soon

 

BFTP

About a 3-5 day phase based on EC-EPS before mobility resumes. But nought reliable either way: too much volatility of current output, with fine balance between the likes of snowy 12z EC DET into 6-10d versus some clusters rather more akin to 12Z GFS. No one solution is convincing enough to be taken as ultimate outcome. There's sufficient f'casting problems even by Sunday to trouble us.

[Jason M]

GEM 12z ensembles look good at out at 180. GFS (old) and GEFS look a bit isolated to be honest. I'd be more concerned if the new GFS was a zonalfest.

[nick sussex]

Latest fax charts, theres a lot going on,  they look close to the UKMO raw output:

 

T96hrs:

 

 

T120hrs:

 

 

There are quite a few snow opportunities in both but detail this far out is difficult, looks like a busy time at the UKMO, I expect holiday leave might be cancelled !lol

Edited January 13, 2015 by nick sussex

[blizzard81]

GEM 12z ensembles look good at out at 180. GFS (old) and GEFS look a bit isolated to be honest. I'd be more concerned if the new GFS was a zonalfest.

JMA looks similar to gfs with the icelandic low going east scuppering things somewhat.

[Djdazzle]

One of these days, the model which shows a cold spell developing will be correct, surely!

Would be ironic if the GFS parallel, which is about to take over, showed a quick end to the cold snap!

[Long haul to mild]

GFS often tries to break down cold spells from the West too early and may well be doing so again. So we shouldn't get too hung up on charts 8 days away when there's so much uncertainty in the nearer timeframes, as Ian F points out.

[Hotspur62]

About a 3-5 day phase based on EC-EPS before mobility resumes. But nought reliable either way: too much volatility of current output, with fine balance between the likes of snowy 12z EC DET into 6-10d versus some clusters rather more akin to 12Z GFS. No one solution is convincing enough to be taken as ultimate outcome. There's sufficient f'casting problems even by Sunday to trouble us.

Still all to play for then. As Nick Miller stated on news 24 about 30mins ago the models are struggling to cope with this weekends developments and things are finely balanced with either a cold pattern developing or continued cool/cold zonality.My hunch is that the old GFS is a tad too progressive with the Atlantic moving in again early next week and I favour 60/40 in favour of cold pattern winning out next week.Just my take on things looking at overall situation and past experiences of these type of set ups.Fascinating Model watching either way. Goodnight all and good luck to many of you waking upto a covering of snow in the morning

[Long haul to mild]

Latest fax charts, theres a lot going on,  they look close to the UKMO raw output:

 

T96hrs:

 

fax96s.gif

 

T120hrs:

 

fax120s.gif

From a snow-starved IMBY point of view I like the look of that occlusion just off the East coast on Sunday Nick!

[Timmytour]

GFS often tries to break down cold spells from the West too early and may well be doing so again. So we shouldn't get too hung up on charts 8 days away when there's so much uncertainty in the nearer timeframes, as Ian F points out.

I'd normally take some comfort from this...but in this instance I'm not sure there's enough resistance in the east to prevent the break through from the west along the lines that GFS is suggesting. Crossed fingers I'm wrong

[nick sussex]

From a snow-starved IMBY point of view I like the look of that occlusion just off the East coast on Sunday Nick!

Well I expect those fax charts to change in terms of fine detail over the next few days but an occlusion heading se looks like a good bet.

[SE Blizzards]

GFS (p) starting to finally trickle out.

 

Boom or bust?

 

I'm going to be positive and say Boom!

Edited January 13, 2015 by SE Blizzards

[snowangel32]

Hi everyone even cold zonal is nothing to be sniffed at some real heavy snow in parts of the midlands proves it. And looks like wich ever model gets it right its all routes lead to cold and snow for the next 8 days at least after that theres no point stressing.