Model Output Discussion - 16th Jan 12z onwards - Smile While You Post!

[bluearmy]

Ouch but if that what it looks like then we should say what it is...thanks Ian looks like back to a west regime but accept looks like low heights NW and high heights sw...shame from my point view but hopefully might change

 

ian posted the ec 32 prediction for this week from 29/12 to illustrate no greeny high was forecast. infact that chart shows perfectly how a mean cannot pick up the nuances that will undoubtedly verify. you need the anomolys for that.

 

on that subject, the latest extended ec eps are not nearly as keen to lower the euro anoms. whilst lthey remain over europe to our south, they are not far south enough to mean we stay cold (more like chilly) and the lowest returns are to just our nw. looks to me like it could be quite a mobile last week of jan based on that run. some pretty deep lows likely to pass close to scotland.

 

is there a connection with the canadian vortex now being modelled to become much larger in week 2 than previously shown ?  

Edited January 16, 2015 by bluearmy

[warrenb]

Well the 18z looks different already, could be going west on this one.

[winterof79]

Anyone for snow?Next 3-6 days according to this data.

Edited January 16, 2015 by winterof79

[Paul]

There's a thread for discussing the layout of the model threads running, so please if you have suggestions or thoughts on it please head over to there rather than posting in here with them.

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82240-would-you-like-a-hunt-for-cold-model-thread/

[Mucka]

So much for Westward correction of sliders most were expecting including me, all the corrections are East unfortunately due to the low being ramped up.

 

 

That delays it disrupting and moving South further allowing the AH to ridge in forcing it more SE - if it can go wrong...

I hope for the trend to get reversed tomorrow.

Edited January 16, 2015 by Mucka

[johnholmes]

well the 8-14 NOAA anomaly has no sign whatever of any carrying on from the 6-10 from last evening. Indeed the 6-10 tonight has begun to decrease the ridging signal in the Atlantic. If I was a betting person I would bet that the current cold spell with deepish cold air from between N-NW depending on minor troughs( as Jo comments re the Fax charts), will tend to decline after about 7 days so that by day 14 we are probably, say 65% probability, going back to the general Polar Maritime W'ly, although nothing like as strong as recently.

links below

 

Again no 00z issue for ECMWF-GFS so using the 12z

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_12z/hgtcomp.html

and the NOAA output

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

Nor is the MJO (GFS) showing anything that might help keep the deep cold and show more blocking

low phase 7 falling into even lower as it moves into 1.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml#forecast

So a cold and fairly frosty 5-7 days, snow for some at times on lowland areas, and of course for higher ground. Once they dig the Scottish ski areas out that should be pretty good. Enjoy what you get and TRY and play nicely!

[warrenb]

18Z and it doesn't look as if it even going to slide, but just pile through.

[Paul]

You probably know what I'm going to say...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Model discussion please - posts above all need to be posted into the banter thread.

 

Edit - have moved them if you're wondering where they went.

[bluearmy]

the T96 FAX compared to yesterdays T120 (quick - compare before the new day 5 is out) shows how much has trended in the wrong direction for most on here.  our 'slider low' is hundreds of miles further north.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=96&carte=2000

Edited January 16, 2015 by bluearmy

[Mark Bayley]

The low struggling to separate as a band of rain/sleet and snow pushes across the UK. Looks good for those with elevation

[Geordiesnow]

18Z has moved away from the GFS12Z option which is no surprise and it does look similar to the ECM and UKMO, not as cold as those 2 models so any frontal snow will be more marginal. 

 

Got to say its ashame how this is turning out and it does look like it will be the hard frosts and foggy mornings that will be more of a feature than snowfall... Monday and Tuesday morning could be very cold indeed.

 

As for the longer term, there is a signal for the cold to break down although with some sort of height rises to our NE, you can't rule out an easterly but it seems an unlikely scenario at the moment.  

[Winter Cold]

Goodness me, this run is like chalk and cheese from the 12z. Its impossible to know whats going to happen. Its going to come down to nowcasting I think. The models are clueless. Every model today is different and even the same model (GFS) is chucking out something different each time. On this run, its all over by Wednesday evening!!

 

[chionomaniac]

the T96 FAX compared to yesterdays T120 (quick - compare before the new day 5 is out) shows how much has trended in the wrong direction for most on here.  our 'slider low' is hundreds of miles further north.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=96&carte=2000

I think that it is a case that every model has 'overslid'. A lesson for the future perhaps should a similar situation arise.

[Snow Grain]

This is looking like a rain only affair apart from northern elevation. At least it'll be a fair outcome as we'll all have the same mush! Not sure tomorrow's charts will improve things.

[scotto]

At least the 18z gfs, looks like the ecm and there seems to be some agreement between the two.... Shame they seem to be totally different to last nights..

[IDO]

By T138 and the milder uppers move in. I didn't even expect that!

 

 

Every run and the cold gets downgraded. Poor performance from the models re blocking yet again. Can we ever take them seriously when cold is forecast?

[bluearmy]

Not good but accepted thanks Ba...strange the eps stamps showed a massive cold anomaly end of jan for yday 12z and today it's flipped big style...Canadian vortex the issue?

 

i dont like 'flipping' ens. something isnt right. could be a change in the morning or could be the way forward. finally the gfs smells the coffee with the disrupting troughs and less energy headed ne. seems the upgrade has the same issues as the old gfs.

[Harsh Climate]

Difference between gfs 18z and 12 z is staggering and at just 150 hours!

 

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I wouldn't worry too much just yet. 1. it could be a massive outliar we need to see the esembles before passing any judgement on 1 isolated run.  and 2, if the gfs can chop and change so drastically from run to run should it really be trusted?? ; ) 

[Long haul to mild]

I have to say I am shocked by the vastness of the turnaround in the output today. Yesterday the low was going to slide right through the UK and introduce an Easterly (of various potency) but today that has all gone and it looks very much like we get no slider at all and we will be in a Westerly flow instead!

It's a staggering backflip and goes to show how nothing at mid range can ever be taken as read.

Of course, the positive is that all could change again and it also shows that any predictions (cold or mild) beyond five days simply cannot be relied upon.

[winterof79]

I think that it is a case that every model has 'overslid'. A lesson for the future perhaps should a similar situation arise.

According to ECM and probably GFS in next few frames we won't be waiting long for next phantom slider.

Edit:Or maybe not on GFS.Sunday it is then for clarification.

Edited January 16, 2015 by winterof79

[Geordiesnow]

I think that it is a case that every model has 'overslid'. A lesson for the future perhaps should a similar situation arise.

 

Indeed some people were saying the slider was a certainty even at the medium range but sadly everything has changed and we gone from an easterly to a NW'ly in the space of 24 hours! 

 

As Crewecold said earlier the charts are now looking similar to what we had for most of the winter although there is some height rises to the NE which could come into play. 

[Mucka]

Difference between gfs 18z and 12 z is staggering and at just 150 hours!

 

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I wouldn't worry too much just yet. 1. it could be a massive outliar we need to see the esembles before passing any judgement on 1 isolated run.  and 2, if the gfs can chop and change so drastically from run to run should it really be trusted?? ; ) 

 

No but it is the trend throughout all the output throughout the day that makes it soul destroying for coldies, it has only gone one way unfortunately.

Someone flicked a switch somewhere.

[Captain Shortwave]

Sorry dropped the ball on this one. I stole the GFS pint 

Hopefully we will see change tomorrow. A change back to an easterly or a 15C south westerly. Who knows......

Edited January 16, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[cold snap]

Scandi block starting to dwindle into the outputs past 144

If this was more involved in the earlier part off the run .east winds would have legs .

Still don't think this is set in stone .

[Cheshire Freeze]

A flat pattern. We are where we were in December, with the high out the East blocking and eastward movement of lows

Yes we are where we were and I said that earlier. I'm not moaning or being emotional but from experience, January is as good as written off given the pattern that's evolving infront of our eyes.

We can hope that this evening the ECM is correct in terms of its projection of colder uppers. Tonight's GFS can best be described as a 'wintry mix'. Accumulating snow at low levels looks a no go on the 18z at least.