Spring 2015

[hillbilly]

Its certainly not the favourite but we are not a million miles away from a belting North Easterly setting up potent enough to give a proper pasting in low lying Inland areas you know.

Think Dec 90, April 81, March 13 or to a lesser extent April 2012, Cyclonic East or North Easterly im thinking. 

Ah April 1981,surely the most out of place snow event in living memory!!

[Summer Sun]

A chilly start to next week but then we get changes and that gives us 3 scenarios from the beeb

 

1) Another high sits over the UK giving us some fine settled weather

 

2) The high slips south with low pressure to the north giving west or south westerly winds with some rain

 

3) The high builds west and low pressure moves east setting up a northerly

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/31840315

[I remember Atlantic 252]

A chilly start to next week but then we get changes and that gives us 3 scenarios from the beeb

 

1) Another high sits over the UK giving us some fine settled weather

 

2) The high slips south with low pressure to the north giving west or south westerly winds with some rain

 

3) The high builds west and low pressure moves east setting up a northerly

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/31840315

 

gotta be no2 sadly, my bet's on number 2

 

And still wondering why my profile pic, of weather chart 1 Dec 2010 was deleted/removed?

Edited March 11, 2015 by Ilovethesnow

[damianslaw]

Daffodils on the edge of flowering here, but alas we need some warm sunshine, and the outlook offers little prospect, a cloudy cool/cold spell ahead, they will remain closed for some time yet I imagine..

[Mokidugway]

gotta be no2 sadly, my bet's on number 2

 

And still wondering why my profile pic, of weather chart 1 Dec 2010 was deleted/removed?

rather odd ???.

[h2005__uk__]

rather odd ???.

Probably a random computer error with no human influence!

[feb1991blizzard]

I will have a variation of a theme please, the one I talked about earlier, a full on spring blizzard with a raw biting North Easterly wind.

 

[March Blizzard]

I will have a variation of a theme please, the one I talked about earlier, a full on spring blizzard with a raw biting North Easterly wind.

I knew this would happen. We go through the first half of March with mild and benign synoptics and then the second half of the month starts showing conditions that would have been far better to see in the first half! Even March 2013 sort of did that, though the cold had already got going by now.

Note to the weather gods: swap the order around next time! (Or better yet just drop the mild entirely!)

Edited March 12, 2015 by March Blizzard

[Summer Sun]

A chilly start to next week but then we get changes and that gives us 3 scenarios from the beeb

 

1) Another high sits over the UK giving us some fine settled weather

 

2) The high slips south with low pressure to the north giving west or south westerly winds with some rain

 

3) The high builds west and low pressure moves east setting up a northerly

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/31840315

 

Scenario 1 gaining some momentum this morning from UKMO and ECM just GFS lagging behind

 

[Snowyowl9]

A cold easterly looking more likely,followed by cold NEly/N-ly spring is on hold.

HP is possible over us too,but a N-ly to follow as the high retrogrades west.

[Captain Shortwave]

A cold easterly looking more likely,followed by cold NEly/N-ly spring is on hold.

HP is possible over us too,but a N-ly to follow as the high retrogrades west.

hmm only the weekend and Monday look chilly at the moment, the ECM/NCEP temperature prediction has temperatures back in double figures from the 18th so 3 cooler days before the winds swing back to a milder direction.

Given the GFS is out of kilter with the other models then I wouldn't be surprised to see an increasing consensus on the Azores high building through the country by the middle of next week. Beyond that, well the ECM suggests a northerly at day 10, but it was showing that at day 10 yesterday, and day 10 three days ago.

 

As for the now, down here in the south east the sunshine hours are really racking up with 5 of the last 6 days being cloud free for most of the day. Temperatures reaching the low teens on most days and even the mid to high teens on occasion. That said the nights have been chilly with a couple of ground frosts. I will miss these conditions when the winds swing easterly bring in a lot of low cloud and drizzle.

[feb1991blizzard]

I knew this would happen. We go through the first half of March with mild and benign synoptics and then the second half of the month starts showing conditions that would have been far better to see in the first half! Even March 2013 sort of did that, though the cold had already got going by now.

Note to the weather gods: swap the order around next time! (Or better yet just drop the mild entirely!)

 

This run is crap unfortunately, mind you its very messy with Shortwaves everywhere so I would bin it personally.

[cheeky_monkey]

I will have a variation of a theme please, the one I talked about earlier, a full on spring blizzard with a raw biting North Easterly wind.

 

Not sure how you would get a blizzard out of this?? very slack isobars pressure none to low either..best would be raw with a few flurries dotted around.

[feb1991blizzard]

Not sure how you would get a blizzard out of this?? very slack isobars pressure none to low either..best would be raw with a few flurries dotted around.

 

At some point during that run you would, remember surface heating now, we are talking steep lapse rates with frigid air above.

[Captain Shortwave]

At some point during that run you would, remember surface heating now, we are talking steep lapse rates with frigid air above.

If it verifies, I have no faith in the gfs output at five days away, let alone at 10/11 days out. This afternoons GEM builds the Azores high in at day 5/6 and keeps it there. I really cannot see anything significant occurring to be honest. Add to that any northerly keeps being pushed out to day 10 at the moment. Now we will likely see temperatures recover to around or even above average from the middle of next week as high pressure builds in from the Azores.

[feb1991blizzard]

If it verifies, I have no faith in the gfs output at five days away, let alone at 10/11 days out. This afternoons GEM builds the Azores high in at day 5/6 and keeps it there. I really cannot see anything significant occurring to be honest. Add to that any northerly keeps being pushed out to day 10 at the moment. Now we will likely see temperatures recover to around or even above average from the middle of next week as high pressure builds in from the Azores.

 

Agree we will need some luck.

[Snowyowl9]

12z run always seem to be the most progressive of runs currently in love with the atlantic.

[feb1991blizzard]

12z run always seem to be the most progressive of runs currently in love with the atlantic.

 

Yes, anyway right on cue - some stunning GEFS members.

[damianslaw]

If the projections shown in the models and ensembles verify then the northern hemispheric base state will be very conducive a colder period later in the month and into April, any azores high pressure build could very easily back west into mid atlantic and drawn northwards with us all looking to the north for our weather.. Next week could very possibly be a sea saw week for high pressure, first an easterly then a new high from azores and a milder period followed by a colder drift from the NW.

[Weather-history]

It has been an interesting March thus far. Lovely warm spring sunshine, frost at night, cloudy and rain at times, snow, soft hail, dramatic rain clearance to crystal clear skies, a misty, foggy evening.

[Summer Sun]

A chilly start to next week but then we get changes and that gives us 3 scenarios from the beeb

 

1) Another high sits over the UK giving us some fine settled weather

 

2) The high slips south with low pressure to the north giving west or south westerly winds with some rain

 

3) The high builds west and low pressure moves east setting up a northerly

 

 

Scenario 3 now seemingly ruled out by the beeb the high will be just enough west later next week giving some NE'ly winds before drifting over the UK as per scenario 1 giving some chilly frosty nights

 

Then the high may slip south with lows across the north of the UK setting up a north westerly so similar to scenario 2 just a difference in wind direction compared to 2 days ago

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/31881897

Edited March 13, 2015 by Summer Sun

[damianslaw]

Increasing signals we entering a colder than average spell of weather which could go on for some times with heights in an unfavourable position to advect any real warmth our way. All eyes will be drawn towards a position north of west I suspect as we move through the latter part of the month and enter April - cool and fairly unsettled sums it up after a cool drier period in the near term.

[Summer Sun]

Met office ens mean maps for March have updated covering the period of April to June

 

Mean level pressure is shown to be around normal for southern parts of the UK and slightly lower than normal over Scotland

 

Precipitation is show to be around or slightly below average

 

 

Temperatures look around average or slightly above, parts of eastern Europe look a good bit above normal

 

 

The latest CFS update shows a lot of high pressure around for the same 3 month period

 

Edited March 15, 2015 by Summer Sun

[feb1991blizzard]

Hello to spring 2015's version of Feb 1996, too late though, if only..........

 

[Weather-history]

It has been an interesting March thus far. Lovely warm spring sunshine, frost at night, cloudy and rain at times, snow, soft hail, dramatic rain clearance to crystal clear skies, a misty, foggy evening.

The last two or three days have been boring. Yesterday it brightened up late afternoon and it looked like a summer type sky with a lot of haze in the air and the sun shining through it.

This morning, it's freezing fog and frost.