Spring 2015

[Milhouse]

Daffs in select locations are coming into flower here. Quite surprised to see it actually, although others are much less behind in their growth.

 

And...... its only 10 days till meteorological Spring

[Gael_Force]

From what I've noticed, the Jamstec IOD model often has a cold bias for Western Europe. As we get nearer the time it tends to moderate the cold. It did exactly that for it's autumn and winter forecasts.

 

Generally not the best long-range model, in my opinion.

 

Personally, I'd go with the majority as you said. I think another warm spring is on the way.

I don't see a majority view for a warm spring.

 

UK Met    Eurosip 

Beijing     CFS 

 

That looks pretty inconclusive to me!

[hillbilly]

Yes the period Jan 85 - Sep 86 was distinctly chilly. October 85 and Dec 85 only months appreciably above average, most were average or well below. Jan 85, May 85, Nov 85, Feb 86, Mar 86, Apr 86, Aug 86 and Sep 86 were significantly below average. I think northern blocking was in residency most of the time. Spring 85 and 86 were very poor temp wise followed by 2 very chilly summers. Gosh if we saw a couplet like that again many would be saying its the return of the ice age..

Yes a cold period

1985,January..0.8 deg

         February 2.1 deg

         November 4.1 deg,coldest for a century and counting

1986,February -1.1deg,coldest of any month since 1963 and counting

         April 5.8 deg,coldest for 90 years and counting

         August ,coldest in 60 years and counting

        September ,3rd coldest of the century

[Costa Del Fal]

The good times are almost here once again! First UV index of 2 here on Saturday! The reawakening is continuing to gather pace.

Edited February 19, 2015 by Costa Del Fal

[Milhouse]

The good times are almost here once again! First UV index of 2 here on Saturday! The reawakening is continuing to gather pace.

 

Yes its almost time to get back on my bike again to and from work. I recall being able to set out at half 6 in the morning last year in just a tshirt. Cant wait to feel that lovely warm soft air again and strong summer sunshine.

 

But its Spring first and theres tentative signs that the first pleasant springlike spell may not be too far away.

[Summer Sun]

The hints that have appeared in the longer range met office text forecasts for a drier start to March made it onto the week ahead forecast last night albeit with extreme caution as you'd expect at this range

 

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/31558933

Edited February 21, 2015 by Summer Sun

[Snowyowl9]

1986 was extreme, we didn't reach above 12.0C until 25th April, above 15C until 1st May and 20C until 13th June.

 

Only 20 days in the entire year reached above 20C and only 10 of those were above 21C. This came after 1985 which had only 23 days above 20C aswell.

 

Its like we're in a different climate these days.

1986 was the second coldest year on record,I`m glad to of been around to appreciate that time.

[Richard2901]

1986 was a cold year but we've had colder here in recent years. 2010 had the lowest mean maximum temperature since 1979 and the 12-months ending March 2013 had a colder mean maximum than any calendar year since 1965.

 

It reached 14C at Dyce in both March and April 1986 whereas we had to wait until May for that to be reached in 2001. The monthly maximums of 13.1C in April 2001 and 13.2C in April 2012 were the lowest for April since records began at Dyce in 1941, the previous lowest having been 13.9C in 1951.

 

20 days reached 20C here in 1986 but compared to some recent years that is a respectable total. 2011, which has got to rate as the worst year for warmth around here since at least 1974, only managed 12 days reaching 20C and, apart from the first few days of June, it failed to reach 21C all summer. By contrast 1986 saw 28.0C reached on 14th July which is hotter than anything since 2006.

 

Overall 1986 was a very sunny year, particularly between May and October, with October the sunniest on record and there was a decent variety of weather. I'd far rather have the weather of 1986 than the pigswill we've been served up over the past decade that's for sure.

 

[Summer of 95]

2001 was a late one, there wasnt any snow after March but it took until May to reach 15C. Then only another two days to reach 20C, like spring never happened. April was a horrid month, like a drier April 2012 without the snow early in the month.

[damianslaw]

Signs of spring - spring growth, buds on trees and daffodils ready to put on a show, but all rather average. I wish I had noted when the daffodils first showed there flowers last year, I think they were out by the 1 March but can't remember. Last year saw an exceptionally early start to Spring in complete contrast to 2013 which was exceptionally late, everything a month behind, it took until mid April for proper spring growth to burst into gear, last year at the same time, I was cutting the grass.

 

We've had a number of mixed Springs in last 10 years with extremes, most notably the cold March of 2013, the exceptionally wet April of 2012, the glorious warmth of March 2012, the early summer heat of April 2007 and 2011, the snowy cold of March 2006 and Easter 2008 and the slow spring of 2010.

[picog]

Things around here seem to be about average to me - they are where you'd expect them to be for the time of year.

[hillbilly]

Signs of spring - spring growth, buds on trees and daffodils ready to put on a show, but all rather average. I wish I had noted when the daffodils first showed there flowers last year, I think they were out by the 1 March but can't remember. Last year saw an exceptionally early start to Spring in complete contrast to 2013 which was exceptionally late, everything a month behind, it took until mid April for proper spring growth to burst into gear, last year at the same time, I was cutting the grass.

 

We've had a number of mixed Springs in last 10 years with extremes, most notably the cold March of 2013, the exceptionally wet April of 2012, the glorious warmth of March 2012, the early summer heat of April 2007 and 2011, the snowy cold of March 2006 and Easter 2008 and the slow spring of 2010.

First daffodils out here on 8th march although there are so many varieties you have to log the same ones each year as there can be over a month between early and late ones.crocuses came out on 19th feb and snowdrops out early feb.Looks similar this year.I did once find a website that listed them for each year but I can no longer find it,1979 was the latest followed by 1986!!

[Summer Sun]

Hints of spring later next week in the south on the latest week ahead beeb forecast with pressure rising from the south not definite but its trending that way

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/31610930

Edited February 24, 2015 by Summer Sun

[Milhouse]

Hints of spring later next week in the south on the latest week ahead beeb forecast with pressure rising from the south not definite but its trending that way

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/31610930

 

Encouraging signs but clearly it might not pan out that way. But given some bright/sunny spells and a light westerly or southwesterly it WILL start to feel springlike.

[Snowyowl9]

No sign of spring next week.

Cold zonality for 3 days on the trot and potent strong cold currently showing from the atlantic first half of next week,another cold part at the end of this week,impressive if all this comes off.

Edited February 24, 2015 by Snowyowl9

[Thundery wintry showers]

I'd certainly settle for cold zonality with two or three days of sunshine and wintry showers, followed by a warm dry sunny spell, for the first third of March.  Neither of these are guaranteed because of the possibility of frontal disturbances turning up at short notice and/or the high pressure being revised further south nearer the time, but at present many model outputs are suggesting that it's a significant possibility.

Edited February 24, 2015 by Thundery wintry showers

[Costa Del Fal]

Just 3 days 23 hours till Meteorological Spring. And no matter what anyone says, the trend is warmer on the whole now. Looks like 10c+ will be becoming quite common in the milder sectors from now on now.

12c expected here today.

[Summer Sun]

The beeb are still going for a drier sunnier spell next week very pleasant by day but cold overnight

 

 

For anyone wondering what the 40% is

 

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/31633740

[Snowyowl9]

GFS going now for a cold spell next week,you couldn`t make it up.

[Daniel*]

Just 3 days 23 hours till Meteorological Spring. And no matter what anyone says, the trend is warmer on the whole now. Looks like 10c+ will be becoming quite common in the milder sectors from now on now.

12c expected here today.

I do love a bit of reverse psychology

[March Blizzard]

The beeb are still going for a drier sunnier spell next week very pleasant by day but cold overnight

 

 

For anyone wondering what the 40% is

 

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/31633740

"March sunshine" in...March! Well it sure as hell ain't gunna be July sunshine, is it?!

[davehsug]

I see people who haven't been around for weeks are back in the mod thread tonight. They've been wrong all winter & still get millions of likes 'cos they predict what the coldies want. Roll on a nice warm spring!

[March Blizzard]

I see people who haven't been around for weeks are back in the mod thread tonight. They've been wrong all winter & still get millions of likes 'cos they predict what the coldies want. Roll on a nice warm spring!

Or they are just commenting on what the models are showing, which is a potential cold/cooler spell in March?

I say bring it on, plenty of time for non-wintry weather in, y'know, the warmer months of the year ie not March.

I must point out that the warmth of March 2012 was even rarer than the cold of March 2013, the former was the 4th warmest on record while the latter was "only" the joint 12th coldest. Really don't get why people are seemingly so expectant of almost summer-like warmth in March when it's so unlikely to happen.

While 2013 has probably skewed the perception of "coldies", 2012 has almost certainly done the same with the "mildies".

[cheeky_monkey]

Or they are just commenting on what the models are showing, which is a potential cold/cooler spell in March?

I say bring it on, plenty of time for non-wintry weather in, y'know, the warmer months of the year ie not March.

I must point out that the warmth of March 2012 was even rarer than the cold of March 2013, the former was the 4th warmest on record while the latter was "only" the joint 12th coldest. Really don't get why people are seemingly so expectant of almost summer-like warmth in March when it's so unlikely to happen.

While 2013 has probably skewed the perception of "coldies", 2012 has almost certainly done the same with the "mildies".

I would say it is the other way round...how many warm March has there been in the last 30 years against cold ones?..i would say at least double..plus the fact the reason Match 2013 is only number 12 is the vast majority of those colder Marches fell more than a 100 years ago and not in the recent past.

[March Blizzard]

I would say it is the other way round...how many warm March has there been in the last 30 years against cold ones?..i would say at least double..plus the fact the reason Match 2013 is only number 12 is the vast majority of those colder Marches fell more than a 100 years ago and not in the recent past.

You may be right, but the facts don't lie. Climatically, your more likely to see a wintry spell in March than 20C. That was the point I was trying to make.