Spring 2015

[Snowyowl9]

Looking at the outlook and by the way wasn`t this weeks forecast for warmer by now,anything but looking like temps average or below for quite awhile yet.

5.2c now

[Backtrack]

Big temperatures for June then methinks, wouldn't surprise me with this el nino that's started it's engine's. I think August is looking a bit dicey on the cfs currently, but that's a long way off and not a guarantee.

 

Your posts make VERY little sense to me at the best of times.

Of course the CFS outputs aren't guarantee. 1) all forecasts are predictions and never nailed on, 2) it's 3 months until June, 5 until August....

[Milhouse]

Im waiting patiently for some warmth to properly arrive despite it not being too bad at the moment. By that i mean its still quite dry and good for the outdoors despite being on the cool side. April should provide more in the way of warmth.

[Summer Sun]

Quite a mixed bag next week with some of the wettest weather to the north and west (not raining all the time with some rain further south at times) but the SE should see some brighter warmer spells.

 

A chilly NW'ly wind first before shifting round to a westerly later making it feel warmer in any sunshine

 

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/31955784

[Weather-history]

Recorded more frosts and lower minima this March than the whole of winter 2013-14.

[feb1991blizzard]

Are you all really sure the atlantic is coming through?

 

Edited March 19, 2015 by feb1991blizzard

[Nick L]

Just seen my first butterflies of the year, spring is definitely here now!

[Costa Del Fal]

Had a gigantic wasp or something similar in my room last week. Seen a couple of bees etc too.

 

Bye winter, you won't be missed.

[MP-R]

It's that time of year when it's winter at night and in the mornings then spring in the afternoon. Bring on April, the first proper spring month.

[damianslaw]

Daffodils in back garden now fully sprung, but those in the sheltered east facing front garden still firmly closed - shows what difference aspect makes..

 

Spring rarely gets going properly until around now, and April is always the month of bloom and first shoots of proper growth.. it is from around now mother nature goes through a rapid transformation, the next 2 months are a time of constant growth and a time of rapid change in the feel of things as we wave goodbye to winter in earnest..

[feb1991blizzard]

[Costa Del Fal]

Slight problem with these charts: They seem to be a bit stuck in FI....

Edited March 21, 2015 by Costa Del Fal

[summer blizzard]

Assuming March gets a PDO value of +1 then we'll see Q1 have all 3 values above +1. The last time this happened..

 

1987

1986

1984

1981

 

All were rather unimpressive so let's hope there's another driver.

[Costa Del Fal]

Assuming March gets a PDO value of +1 then we'll see Q1 have all 3 values above +1. The last time this happened..

 

1987

1986

1984

1981

 

All were rather unimpressive so let's hope there's another driver.

Do you mean unimpressive spring or summers?

I'm confident we are back into a regime of decent summers now as we seem to be out of the cold winter phase which seemed to accompany rubbish summers. Obviously a basic link but still reasonable IMO.

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

I'm most looking forward to the warmer weather bringing the thunderstorms etc. Just amazing to watch sometimes!

[reef]

Do you mean unimpressive spring or summers?

I'm confident we are back into a regime of decent summers now as we seem to be out of the cold winter phase which seemed to accompany rubbish summers. Obviously a basic link but still reasonable IMO.

 

I don't think you can be confident of anything, there has never been a regime of 'decent summers' in this country. Its pretty rare to get more than a couple of warm, dry, sunny ones in succession.

 

Both mild and cold winters have also preceded good summers and patterns can change very quickly. Take July and September 2006; who would have expected two record-breaking months so close together, not to mention a below average August sandwiched in between.

[Costa Del Fal]

I don't think you can be confident of anything, there has never been a regime of 'decent summers' in this country. Its pretty rare to get more than a couple of warm, dry, sunny ones in succession.

 

Both mild and cold winters have also preceded good summers and patterns can change very quickly. Take July and September 2006; who would have expected two record-breaking months so close together, not to mention a below average August sandwiched in between.

True things can change quickly. I perhaps should have worded myself more carefully. Perhaps by decent I mean anything better than the awful 2007-12 period which was quite frankly appalling. It would take some beating to get worse than that such that most summers should seem better relative to those.

 

Surely 6 rubbish summers are rarer than 2 good ones on the trot!

[picog]

Saw my first bumble bee yesterday. Hovering over the grass looking for a nice vole hole for its nest perhaps.

Costa Del Fal I think the 'summers' of the 1950s were pretty dire - cold, sunless and wet - worse than what we have endured recently.

[summer blizzard]

True things can change quickly. I perhaps should have worded myself more carefully. Perhaps by decent I mean anything better than the awful 2007-12 period which was quite frankly appalling. It would take some beating to get worse than that such that most summers should seem better relative to those.

 

Surely 6 rubbish summers are rarer than 2 good ones on the trot!

09 and 10 were actually much more average as a whole than most of the summers in the prior decade.

[Summer Sun]

A cold day in Wych Cross, East Sussex today where the temperature peaked at just 5.9C, whilst over in Northern Ireland Aldergrove, Antrim hit 13.4c

[Summer Sun]

WSI expect below normal temps in the UK through-out the next 3 months

 

WSI (Weather Services International) expects below-normal temperatures in the UK and western Europe for the April-June period, with above-normal temperatures continuing across Scandinavia and eastern Europe. A wet period is expected across Scandinavia and southeastern Europe, with dry conditions across UK, the rest of mainland Europe, and western Russia. According to WSI Chief Meteorologist Dr. Todd Crawford, “March has gone as expected so far, with the persistence of unusual warmth across Scandinavia and near or slightly below-normal temperatures across the UK and western Europe. The dominance of high pressure has also resulted in a relatively dry month.

 

This unusually stable pattern is expected to generally persist, with some sub-seasonally driven variation, through April into May. As we look ahead to summer, most of our indicators suggest a very warm and generally dry summer across Scandinavia, eastern Europe, and western Russia. On the other hand, near to below-normal temperatures and above-normal rainfall are more likely across western/southern sections.â€

 

In April, WSI forecasts:

 

Nordic Region* – Warmer than normal

UK* – Slightly cooler than normal

Northern Mainland* – Warmer than normal east, cooler west

Southern Mainland* – Warmer than normal east, cooler west

 

In May, WSI forecasts:

 

Nordic Region – Warmer than normal

UK – Slightly cooler than normal

Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal

Southern Mainland – Cooler than normal

 

In June, WSI forecasts:

 

Nordic Region – Warmer than normal

UK – Cooler than normal

Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal east, cooler than normal west

Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal east, cooler than normal west

 

 

http://www.wsi.com/1e782803-9cbf-4328-8834-e10f2c33987d/news-scheduled-forecast-release-details.htm

Edited March 23, 2015 by Summer Sun

[Weather-history]

Assuming March gets a PDO value of +1 then we'll see Q1 have all 3 values above +1. The last time this happened..

 

1987

1986

1984

1981

 

All were rather unimpressive so let's hope there's another driver.

1984 was superb and 1981 had some cracking thunderstorms.

[Gael_Force]

Assuming March gets a PDO value of +1 then we'll see Q1 have all 3 values above +1. The last time this happened..

 

1987

1986

1984

1981

 

All were rather unimpressive so let's hope there's another driver.

You've missed out 2003....

2003**   2.09   1.75   1.51   1.18   0.89......

There are only 3 years before now with such high PDO values for first quarter '40, '41 and '03. A lot will depend on whether a stronger Nino develops as it is very unusual to have such warm Pacific temps without a proper Nino atmosphere response.

[Stargazer]

It has been an interesting March thus far. Lovely warm spring sunshine, frost at night, cloudy and rain at times, snow, soft hail, dramatic rain clearance to crystal clear skies, a misty, foggy evening.

 

Have to say I don't perceive it as being a particularly interesting month here in the south. Yes, we've had a few nice springlike days - but here on the whole it seems to have been the month when the nagging north-easterly keeps returning - with cloudy skies, generally frost-free nights and suppressed daytime maxima. It has certainly been a rather dry month so far, but not with a great variety of weather.

Edited March 23, 2015 by Stargazer

[summer blizzard]

You've missed out 2003....

2003**   2.09   1.75   1.51   1.18   0.89......

There are only 3 years before now with such high PDO values for first quarter '40, '41 and '03. A lot will depend on whether a stronger Nino develops as it is very unusual to have such warm Pacific temps without a proper Nino atmosphere response.

 

I have Q1 values of..

 

1.37 0.83 0.85

 

for 2003.