Spring 2015

[Captain Shortwave]

You may be right, but the facts don't lie. Climatically, your more likely to see a wintry spell in March than 20C. That was the point I was trying to make.

We saw quite a few days where 20C was reached last March, whilst overall the month was only a little above average temperature wise. Even the 2008 Easter snowfall didn't last more than 48 hours as and as such only March 2013 has delivered a spell of prolonged lying snowfall in my lifetime (I'm 25 btw), and even then it wasn't where I was living. During that same time I have seen plenty of days in March reach or even exceed 20C.

Model wise, an increasing chance that March 2015 could be a blocked month, trouble is where and how cold the set up will be. A Scandi high at this time of year only yields a cold and snowy spell if there is a deep enough cold pool moving westwards, otherwise it will either be chilly and sunny under a dry continental feed or grey and cloudy for the majority. That is of course if the Scandi high materialises, any further south and March could very well be a pleasantly warm month. A drier than average month looks very possible at the moment.

Edited February 26, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[Snowyowl9]

The coldest days of march 2012 with snowfall on these 3 days.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2012/Rrea00120120304.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2012/Rrea00220120308.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2012/Rrea00120120318.gif

As for real march warmth its this back in 1990.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1990/Rrea00119900318.gif

[damianslaw]

March like September is very much a transitional month thanks to the seasonal lag effect, the first half of March often still feels wintry despite a warmer sun and longer daylight, SSTs are at there lowest and winds from NW-E sector can bring weather every bit as cold as in deep winter.

 

First half of Sept similiarly often feels like the previous season, heatwaves can still occur with very high maxima despite a weaker sun and less daylight, SSTs are at there highest and the continent is every bit as warm as in mid summer.

 

However, mild maxima does occur in March, southerly airstreams can easily produce high teen maxima even to the north. However, it is a month prone to set backs, teasing us with spring warmth only to then plunge us into winter cold. Its not a month you can rely on for anything particularly warm. It can be an exceptionally benign month as well rivalled only by September if the atlantic is weak, with high pressure stubborn to move off the scene and things becoming very static, high pressure sat to the west/southwest with a mild NW feed can dominate the month on occasion.. think back to March 97 for a great example of this. Unlike September though it has much higher chance of producing variability - and always a chance of a potent northerly arctic blast to wake everyone up!

[summer blizzard]

Wednesday was the first day it felt very spring like. It was sunny but a bit humid with no wind because of the broken warm front approaching (allowed patchy sun until it was almost here rather than a cloud shield). The sun felt warm as it's starting to and the air felt it could have been low teens. 

[March Blizzard]

It really isn't that uncommon for us to record temperatures in the high teens in March. With the exception of months like March 2013, it tends to happen most Marches. Here are the highest temperatures reached for my area, (not too far from your's) and of course, these would have been higher in other parts of the country:

 

March 2010: 17°C (17th)

March 2011: 17°C (24th)

March 2012: 21°C (28th)

March 2013: 13°C (5th) - exceptionally cold, of course

March 2014: 19°C (30th)

 

And of course, getting temperatures in the mid-to high teens can feel very pleasant in March, especially considering we've just come out of winter.

Yeah, it can get quite mild in March, and the mid/high teens (note: not 20C or higher) are probably reached most Marches, but they aren't with any kind of consistency, otherwise the average high temperature for the month would be much higher than it actually is. You can get very mild days here and there in any month, even in sun starved November, December and January.

It might hit 17/18/19C in March on one day, but the next will probably only reach 9/10C, or lower. Day after day of very mild maxima is actually rare, even 2012 wasn't uniformly warm in this regard. In fact, it only reached around 4C here on the 15th in 2012 under fog that lasted throughout the day.

When people say they are looking for "spring warmth" I get the impression they are looking for more May-like weather - reliable temperatures in the mid/high teens on a consistent daily basis. Yes you can get that in March, but it takes an exceptional spell like 2012 to do so.

[davehsug]

I always think there is a change spell in spring & autumn. In autumn, temps often hang around 17-19 & then, usually in October, there will be the first cold spell with 10-12 & temps never quite recover. The same with spring, we'll have the 8-12 range, then the first 17-19 & temps never quite get below the 12ish range again. All apart from the odd day of course. Just my opinion.

[summer blizzard]

I always think there is a change spell in spring & autumn. In autumn, temps often hang around 17-19 & then, usually in October, there will be the first cold spell with 10-12 & temps never quite recover. The same with spring, we'll have the 8-12 range, then the first 17-19 & temps never quite get below the 12ish range again. All apart from the odd day of course. Just my opinion.

 

I'd agree with that, it's rare that seasons actually see repetitive swings to a large enough degree to offset the gradual warming. 

 

There's also a mental change at some point depending on weather, smells, foliage.

[Summer of 95]

I'd agree with that, it's rare that seasons actually see repetitive swings to a large enough degree to offset the gradual warming. 

 

There's also a mental change at some point depending on weather, smells, foliage.

March and April 2012? 20C maxima in the last week of March, then woke up to snow on the ground on April 4th and didn't reach 20C again till late May. Also spring 1995, there were some decent warm spells but it kept turning cold after them right through to early June.

First 15C of the year already happened for 2015, on the ridiculously early date of January 9th.

[Captain Shortwave]

March and April 2012? 20C maxima in the last week of March, then woke up to snow on the ground on April 4th and didn't reach 20C again till late May. Also spring 1995, there were some decent warm spells but it kept turning cold after them right through to early June.

First 15C of the year already happened for 2015, on the ridiculously early date of January 9th.

To add to that last Autumn proved that once temperatures dropped you could still get warmth even at the far end of Autumn. In October we saw temperatures reach 23C and then even with a cooler first half of November we still reached the high teens in the final week.

The notion of a smoother transition between summer and winter and vice versa seem to come with very boring periods of seasonal weather (for example last spring).

[h2005__uk__]

First 15C of the year already happened for 2015, on the ridiculously early date of January 9th.

 

Yes, that happened widely across the UK, although it happened at night and was associated with a warm front which brought quite a bit of rain some hours later. So whilst the mercury proves it's already reached 15C this year, it wasn't the daytime, spring-like 15C that we normally hit sometime during late Feb or March.

 

[Summer Sun]

If Ian is right March could be quite settled remember this is based on the west country so some northern parts could be prone to some unsettled weather at times

 

@fergieweather

 

W COUNTRY An unsettled weekend & start to next week, but high pressure set to establish later nxt week & offer largely dry, settled weather

 

W COUNTRY CONT'D...High pressure expected to remain influential much of March: largely dry, often sunny; temps close to or bit below average

Edited February 27, 2015 by Summer Sun

[Snowyowl9]

Plenty of the pink stuff coming in from the atlantic first week of march,I mean white stuff.

http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_06_UTC/96_30.gif

[March Blizzard]

If high pressure has to roll in sometime next week I really hope it's situated a bit further north over the UK, rather than to our south. Clear and sunny by day and frosty by night, please. Really can't be a**ed with persistent cloud and mild temperatures.

A clear high in March is glorious, a cloudy one is hideous.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

If high pressure has to roll in sometime next week I really hope it's situated a bit further north over the UK, rather than to our south. Clear and sunny by day and frosty by night, please. Really can't be a**ed with persistent cloud and mild temperatures.

A clear high in March is glorious, a cloudy one is hideous.

 

but your location is in for a snowfest on Tuesday, expect a thaw though during thursday

[March Blizzard]

but your location is in for a snowfest on Tuesday, expect a thaw though during thursday

Don't get me wrong, I'd love that! I'm thinking more about the increasingly strong signal for high pressure to influence our weather in the second week of the month.

[Snowyowl9]

There was a cold snap and the end of march last year,you will of forgotten about.

[Summer Sun]

A cold start to spring with some snow showers around though fairly bright as well then settling down later next week with some milder air coming in pleasant by day but cold overnight

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/31674187

Edited February 28, 2015 by Summer Sun

[Snowy Easterlies]

it felt like it was only yesterday when we had that Halloween heatwave, winter came and went so quickly as december felt like an autumn month and February felt like a mixture of autumn, spring and winter

 

the summer months usually feel like summer in the south even though we don't often see temps above 25c, plus september feels like a summer month aswell, march does not feel like a winter month though and it wouldn't surprise me if i didn't see a flake of snow this month

Edited March 1, 2015 by Snowy Easterlies

[March Blizzard]

If high pressure has to roll in sometime next week I really hope it's situated a bit further north over the UK, rather than to our south. Clear and sunny by day and frosty by night, please. Really can't be a**ed with persistent cloud and mild temperatures.

A clear high in March is glorious, a cloudy one is hideous.

Looks like my worst fear is being realised, with the models suggesting high pressure to set up over northern France/the Channel, from around the 6th/7th, pumping in south westerlies and likely loads of cloud. Net result is mild (potentially very mild) by day and night, and dull. Truly awful. The worst weather imaginable in my book - slightly too cool to be warm, slightly too warm to feel fresh, no sun, no breeze, no precipitation and no frost. Just persistent weather purgatory.

It's crazy how often high pressure has influenced our weather in March over the last 4 years.

[Summer Sun]

WSI spring forecast for Europe

 

WSI Europe: A Generally Warm, Dry Spring Expected

 

Lack of Notable Cold as Mild Atlantic High Pressure in Control

 

Andover, MA, 23 February 2015 — WSI (Weather Services International) expects generally above-normal temperatures for the March-May period, especially across northern and eastern sections of Europe. Near or slightly below-normal temperatures will be confined to parts of western Europe, including the UK. A dry spring is also expected in most locations, with the exception of parts of northern and central Scandinavia and southeastern Europe.

According to WSI Chief Meteorologist Dr. Todd Crawford, “While early February has been characterized by colder-than-normal temperatures across western Europe, a sustained cold pattern just has not been able to take hold this winter, for a second year in a row. This unusually stable pattern is expected to persist into spring, as mild Atlantic high pressure dominates the weather with mild and dry conditions across most areas. If the spring is as dry as many of the models suggest, it may indicate increased odds of a hotter summer across some areas.â€

In March, WSI forecasts:

 

Nordic Region – Warmer than normal
UK – Slightly colder than normal
Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal east
Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal

In April, WSI forecasts:

 

Nordic Region – Warmer than normal
UK – Slightly cooler than normal
Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal
Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal

In May, WSI forecasts:

 

Nordic Region – Warmer than normal
UK – Slightly cooler than normal
Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal
Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal

 

http://www.wsi.com/91d2418e-faf0-413f-a396-3738fc4794d5/news-scheduled-forecast-release-details.htm

[Frank Trough]

WSI spring forecast for Europe

 

WSI Europe: A Generally Warm, Dry Spring Expected

 

Lack of Notable Cold as Mild Atlantic High Pressure in Control

 

Andover, MA, 23 February 2015 — WSI (Weather Services International) expects generally above-normal temperatures for the March-May period, especially across northern and eastern sections of Europe. Near or slightly below-normal temperatures will be confined to parts of western Europe, including the UK. A dry spring is also expected in most locations, with the exception of parts of northern and central Scandinavia and southeastern Europe.

According to WSI Chief Meteorologist Dr. Todd Crawford, “While early February has been characterized by colder-than-normal temperatures across western Europe, a sustained cold pattern just has not been able to take hold this winter, for a second year in a row. This unusually stable pattern is expected to persist into spring, as mild Atlantic high pressure dominates the weather with mild and dry conditions across most areas. If the spring is as dry as many of the models suggest, it may indicate increased odds of a hotter summer across some areas.â€

In March, WSI forecasts:

 

Nordic Region – Warmer than normal

UK – Slightly colder than normal

Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal east

Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal

In April, WSI forecasts:

 

Nordic Region – Warmer than normal

UK – Slightly cooler than normal

Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal

Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal

In May, WSI forecasts:

 

Nordic Region – Warmer than normal

UK – Slightly cooler than normal

Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal

Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal

 

http://www.wsi.com/91d2418e-faf0-413f-a396-3738fc4794d5/news-scheduled-forecast-release-details.htm

 

hmmm. does that not seem a bit unlikely? All of Europe warmer than average in all 3 months while the UK is colder than average in all 3 months? But UK also drier than normal? There obviously is a pattern that could produce that (otherwise they wouldn't be forecasting it) but i'm struggling to think what it would be? somebody help me!

 

Based on nothing more than the fact that all three spring months last year were above average i can't see that being repeated but i also don't see the logic of the above forecast. I wouldn't be surprised to see a the settled start to march verify but the high eventually migrating north to bring a much colder, wetter spell into april.

[MP-R]

hmmm. does that not seem a bit unlikely? All of Europe warmer than average in all 3 months while the UK is colder than average in all 3 months? But UK also drier than normal? There obviously is a pattern that could produce that (otherwise they wouldn't be forecasting it) but i'm struggling to think what it would be? somebody help me!

 

Based on nothing more than the fact that all three spring months last year were above average i can't see that being repeated but i also don't see the logic of the above forecast. I wouldn't be surprised to see a the settled start to march verify but the high eventually migrating north to bring a much colder, wetter spell into april.

 

The only setup I can think of which incidentally wouldn't last all three months, is an elongated trough over NW Europe with a lot of warm air coming in on the southern and eastern side while the UK has winds from a more N-NE vector courtesy of high pressure close to the UK. Such an outcome would mean more cloud in the east and clearer further west but fairly settled. 

[Summer Sun]

WSI is also quoted in a national newspaper today as saying "the UK could be basking in highs 8°C above average at 21°C for Easter" and "Weather patterns suggest 27°C highs in May"

[Snowyowl9]

The chance of seeing cold or with wintry snow showers on march 1st is not far off 50% approx in the last 30 years for this location.

Edited March 1, 2015 by Snowyowl9

[Summer Sun]

beeb going for highs of 15c next weekend maybe even the high teens then beyond the high is likely to be sitting over the UK giving mild air, light winds clear skies and temperatures really picking up

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/31684575