South West & Central Southern England - Weather Chat

[Zephyr]

No snow here over night not even a drop of rain was out looking at the moon most of the night as the skies was clear!

[gottolovethisweather]

Disappointing cold spell so far down here. Not having a weather station or even an outdoor thermometer I tend to rely on more mundane means to gauge how the winter has been. Getting older and becoming increasingly curmudgeonly about working outside all year round, I realise my shivering and regular uttering of 'brrrrrrrrrr, it's cold' isn't a reliable indicator any more but nature doesn't lie..... In an average year my snowdrops are in full flower on valentines day, it's the same patch I've been watching for nearly 15 years now so quite a long record of observation with no micro climate changes, today they are in full flower - a full two weeks early. 

 

Cold spell, what cold spell???? Can't say it's impacted here at all. On the plus side, at least it's been drier than last year.

 

Your snowdrops like mine are continuing their earlier flowering dates as the years tick by, largely due to a lack of consecutive deep penetrating frosts I would say. Regarding the cold spell, I will believe the current UKMO forecasts in this case and as the weekend didn't quite provide the chill expected, next week should. My forecast Maximums for Newbury are from today, 4c, 2c,3c,4c,3c and with four frosts anticipated during the same timescale alongside two snow days.

 

For your patch, I've chosen Midsomer Norton to represent the 20 miles distance between Wells and Bath and the UKMO states Maximums of 5c,2c,3c,3c,4c for there, through to Thursday. 4 frosts are anticipated during that timeframe but sadly no snow if one likes that sort of thing.

 

So in summary, not a desperately cold week upcoming for us in this region, but perhaps an opportunity for nature to slow down and appreciate Winter itself before surging rapidly towards Spring once again. I remain of the opinion that it was never going to be a shockingly cold and snowy set up and that appears nailed on. Conversely, the end to this colder spell is not in sight yet, and won't arrive until at least the second week of February by the earliest, like it or not. As long as the sun shines when it is not threatening any precipitation I'll be a happy lad as the sunshine alone lifts me spirit.

Edited February 1, 2015 by gottolovethisweather

[jethro]

I'm not knocking the METO, I think they've got a difficult job to do and they do it very well, but I do think they suffer from the modern malady of risk aversion. Everything nowadays is geared towards the vaguest possibility of injury so the forecasts do tend to highlight any possibility, however remote, of a bit of icy, slippery weather. Combine that with us snow loons on here and it's probably a recipe for disaster. They warn of a possible risk and I for one, hope their snow risk has been under played and we're going to get something of note.

Personally I'd rather they didn't warn of a flake or two, or a bit of frost, to me that's just normal winter weather. My old brain converts any warning into 'oh my god, it's coming' but that's just because I'm old and during my lifetime, especially growing up in the Cotswolds, what we've had so far this winter would never have warranted a warning.

[jethro]

Your snowdrops like mine are continuing their earlier flowering dates as the years tick by, largely due to a lack of consecutive deep penetrating frosts I would say. Regarding the cold spell, I will believe the current UKMO forecasts in this case and as the weekend didn't quite provide the chill expected, next week should. My forecast Maximums for Newbury are from today, 4c, 2c,3c,4c,3c and with four frosts anticipated during the same timescale alongside two snow days.

 

For your patch, I've chosen Midsomer Norton to represent the 20 miles distance between Wells and Bath and the UKMO states Maximums of 5c,2c,3c,3c,4c for there, through to Thursday. 4 frosts are anticipated during that timeframe but sadly no snow if one likes that sort of thing.

 

So in summary, not a desperately cold week upcoming for us in this region, but perhaps an opportunity for nature to slow down and appreciate Winter itself before surging rapidly towards Spring once again. I remain of the opinion that it was never going to be a shockingly cold and snowy set up and that appears nailed on. Conversely, the end to this colder spell is not in sight yet, and won't arrive until at least the second week of February by the earliest, like it or not. As long as the sun shines when it is not threatening any precipitation I'll be a happy lad as the sunshine alone lifts me spirit.

 

I'll take comfort from your forecast. Midsomer Norton is about 4 miles away, a town and 400ft lower than here so being out in the sticks, on the top of a hill, I should at least see something of a frost 

[Mapantz]

This has to be one of the weirdest cold spells I can remember for some time..

Both BBC and MetO had me down for -2°C this morning. Reality was, it never got below 2.4°C

The last three nights have been like this, I can't remember it being that wrong so consistently?

Anyway, currently 5.3°C and cloudy.

[Bristawl Si]

A few snowflakes blowing in the wind here

[festivalking]

Been out and about today. Nipped up to great mis tor early this morning where there is superb snow coverage but the most bone chilling northerly gale blowing, sadly the drive back was tainted by the idiots from town who when they reach the snow line they just park the car on the side of the road and walk off. Traffic was pretty jammed as essentially the road becomes one way and no gives an inch. Once through that trauma walked locally where at last we have kept a covering of snow. For a change my house is the right side of the snow line, was great to see the place finally covered in snow...granted a thin layer but great all the same. 

[kent]

This has to be one of the weirdest cold spells I can remember for some time..

Both BBC and MetO had me down for -2°C this morning. Reality was, it never got below 2.4°C

The last three nights have been like this, I can't remember it being that wrong so consistently?

Anyway, currently 5.3°C and cloudy.

I agree.Poole harbour weather station showing 6.2 and rising What happened to the predicted feels like minus in the wind.More like a spring day here.

[Nights King]

A few snowflakes blowing in the wind here

 

First shower that isnt rain in days and it's missed me by 5/10 miles  

[Jayfromcardiff]

First shower that isnt rain in days and it's missed me by 5/10 miles  

I had around 5 showers miss me by that exact amount last night. Its just not to be.

[khodds]

Erm...,. ITS SNOWING!!!!!!

[jethro]

Working on the law of sod I'll guarantee if we're going to have any snow of note, and I mean the kind that causes chaos on the roads, February 2009 all over again, it'll be between Feb 15th-23rd. 

[khodds]

Very light, but lovely to see

[Stormyking]

Had some snow again move over last night around 4am ish, was only light but was still nice to see

[Raidan]

I guessing going by some posts in here the chance of snow today and tomorrow is off.

[SNOW CRYSTAL]

We went up onto the moor early this morning whilst it was quiet and had breakfast at the Fox's Tor then went for a stomp around. Bitterly cold in the wind, but stunning in the sun.

On our way back, we were just in time to catch the herds of people making their way up, and as Festival King said, cars abandoned on the road side, hardly any room to get through. Police Landrovers were just arriving as we left.

I understand the desperation to see the snow but a bit more attention to parking might be a good idea!!!

[Zephyr]

 

What's with the gap as it enters in to the south west?!

[Dorsetbred]

I think as has been said before, even with the snowfall (or lack thereof) this winter has at least spared us from the endless months of rainfall as experienced last year. For that I am grateful. As for the rest, well it's one of those, "Not for you" years.Personally I am at the point of not worry about what we will or wont get,I'm looking forward to spring (hoping it's not a washout, literally).

Looking around the globe others are suffering this winter. Whilst the Midwest & North East of the USA is pounded with snowfall, California is now under serious drought conditions. At least we are not under drought conditions, as that is not something you easily can ignore.

[Nights King]

 

What's with the gap as it enters in to the south west?!

Very frustrating you can guarantee it will split apart over Somerset Bristol. Area if it's heading south...

[khodds]

 

What's with the gap as it enters in to the south west?!

Is that for 5pm today? There's prac no precip on the radar so can't see it happening?

[Daniel*]

Is that for 5pm today? There's prac no precip on the radar so can't see it happening?

6am today done and dusted, NMM was fairly spot on for the Southeast, I prefer it to the Euro4.

[Zephyr]

ah sorry was still the 18z from last night I didn't notice lol

[Nights King]

ah sorry was still the 18z from last night I didn't notice lol

 

You got my hopes up too   I did think that looks similar.. 

[Frosty_wsm]

So was that gfs 06z a rogue run or is there a new trend emerging for the hp to setup further north with an easterly in the south with some very cold uppers being pulled into the south from the continent, not long to wait now to see if the 12z's continue with this trend or not.

[gottolovethisweather]

I'm not knocking the METO, I think they've got a difficult job to do and they do it very well, but I do think they suffer from the modern malady of risk aversion. Everything nowadays is geared towards the vaguest possibility of injury so the forecasts do tend to highlight any possibility, however remote, of a bit of icy, slippery weather. Combine that with us snow loons on here and it's probably a recipe for disaster. They warn of a possible risk and I for one, hope their snow risk has been under played and we're going to get something of note.

Personally I'd rather they didn't warn of a flake or two, or a bit of frost, to me that's just normal winter weather. My old brain converts any warning into 'oh my god, it's coming' but that's just because I'm old and during my lifetime, especially growing up in the Cotswolds, what we've had so far this winter would never have warranted a warning.

 

Ah sorry, it wasn't meant as a reflection of whether they (UKMO) got their forecasts correct or not up to now but merely an insight into their thoughts over the coming days. I agree over their current risk/warnings application but I guess they are damned if they do and damned if they don't, although on a local level they often mean zilch and I rarely take any notice of them but that is simply because I tend to keep myself up to date via these forums, the radars and other observations. The non-weather obsessed folk probably wouldn't understand our grievances with the warnings and advisories and it is largely intended for them (the public at large) rather than us.

 

Anyway, enough of that, where's my dinner I'm hungry. 

Edited February 1, 2015 by gottolovethisweather