South West & Central Southern England - Weather Chat

[The Enforcer]

Re tues then, model uncertainty at that range is going to lead to some surprises no doubt. and I'm sure they will be good surprised when we are in an embedded cold regime

Even on the BBC weather charts they show the original Low going well west, Sunday/Monday followed by an occluded front/trough on Monday down the western side and another trough on Tuesday down the centre of the UK, so certainly not cut and dried.

[snowgeek]

Even on the BBC weather charts they show the original Low going well west, Sunday/Monday followed by an occluded front/trough on Monday down the western side and another trough on Tuesday down the centre of the UK, so certainly not cut and dried.

good analysis, cheers

[Argyle1980]

Could well be a nowcast for Tuesday but if you are in the far west I do think there will be some light snow showers about on the Monday/ and more likely Tuesday morning.

[A.J]

Re tues then, model uncertainty at that range is going to lead to some surprises no doubt. and I'm sure they will be good surprised when we are in an embedded cold regime

hmm....going by the latest output on the GFS (18z) then yes, there is potential as a shortwave trough develops in the northerly flow and tracks south down the Irish sea...The 18z has it deeper as a closed system, whereas the 12z has it as an open wave.......parameters look fine for snowfall (T850's, thicknesses, wet bulb temps etc) away from the coast...all depends on where the ppn is (I don't look at the GFS ppn charts, as IMO they're as much use as a chocolate fireguard)

[Argyle1980]

But in the mean time enjoy this beautiful cold weather.... Could be much worse.

Going to enjoy my run tomorrow morning

[gottolovethisweather]

Quick update as off to bed, but the next hour or so could see a brief period of snow resulting in a temporary covering over parts of Oxfordshire, West Berkshire, East Wiltshire and North Hampshire based on a quick glance of the radar. Parts of Cornwall and Devon will see further sporadic showers overnight too. Here's hoping I can capture some lying snow by morning then. Nighty night,

Edited January 31, 2015 by gottolovethisweather

[The Enforcer]

Quick update as off to bed, but the next hour or so could see a brief period of snow resulting in a temporary covering over parts of Oxfordshire, West Berkshire, East Wiltshire and North Hampshire based on a quick glance of the radar. Parts of Cornwall and Devon will see further sporadic showers overnight too. Here's hoping I can capture some lying snow by morning then. Nighty night,

Seems to be intensifying and heading straight for here. Has almost come out of nowhere, but was picked up by NMM from yesterday's runs. It would be quite a turn up to get snowfall two nights running from such small pockets of precipitation, temperatures less favourable this time though.

Edited January 31, 2015 by The Enforcer

[karlos1983]

Oxford looks to be sweet spot in the coming hour(s) nice shower line setting up. Never has that been said imby ever.

[Nights King]

Right I am off to bed, current house temperature is at a balmy 11.6c so should be interesting to see what its like come the morning and whether Beka's prediction of me waking up stiff as a board through Rigamortis come  true  

 

hopefully it will be a whiteout up on Mendip soon

Edited January 31, 2015 by Nights King

[gottolovethisweather]

Seems to be intensifying and heading straight for here. Has almost come out of nowhere, but was picked up by NMM from yesterday's runs. It would be quite a turn up to get snowfall two nights running from such small pockets of precipitation, temperatures less favourable this time though.

 

Yes indeed, I'm too knackered to watch though.   

[MP-R]

Momentarily got excited by the area of green to the north of Bristol on the N-W radar... then realised it was the outline of the Forest of Dean.

 

Time for bed... 

[karlos1983]

Yep night all.

[andy_leics22]

Hmmm, I shouldn't have looked at the radar before going to sleep. There is a line of showers heading towards Oxford! Looks like there are some moderate bursts too. Might stay up for a bit longer.

[The Enforcer]

Oxford looks to be sweet spot in the coming hour(s) nice shower line setting up. Never has that been said imby ever.

Yep just started snowing moderately.

[Mark Neal.]

Snowing lightly here

[andy_leics22]

Snowing moderately here but not sticking

[The Enforcer]

Snowing moderately here but not sticking

It's settling a bit here. I think it might where you are if it gets heavier.

[Mark Neal.]

Light but a few moderate bursts. Settling on top of car, mere dusting

[andy_leics22]

It's settling a bit here. I think it might where you are if it gets heavier.

To be honest, i'm just looking outside my front door under the security light. It might be sticking on the grass or pavements outside my house. Can't see those that well from my front door though as our drive is quite long.

Your game for tomorrow could still be called off if we get a few cm's tonight because it doesn't look like it will melt much tomorrow. Temps maxing out at about 2c.

[Mark Neal.]

Radar shows ahowers intensifying somewhat over Coventry area.

[Argyle1980]

Lovely hail shower just now and looks like we are in for another soon!

[andy_leics22]

Radar shows ahowers intensifying somewhat over Coventry area.

I really should be going to sleep now, otherwise i'll be a zombie at work tomorrow. The PPN seems to be pepping up with every 5 minutw update though! Hard to go sleep just yet when that is happening! Haha

[Argyle1980]

Here comes a snow shower

[andy_leics22]

Here comes a snow shower

Glad to see you getting some snow action down there you guys deserve it.

[katemart]

According to uksnowmap it's snowing in Torquay!   No-one awake to report?

 

Here it's 1.7, with a dp of -4.2. Looks like the ppn will go east of here so looks like Pompey could strike lucky.

Edited February 1, 2015 by katemart