Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Spring/Summer 2015.

[IanR]

You ask why people are complaining and then ramble on about the weather in your back yard - well, believe it or not, the weather varies from location to location! It's currently 13C, cloudy and windy here - so please forgive me for complaining.

actually I mentioned a lot of days at 15 to 17c,  but there have been quite a few at 12 to 14c too,  these low temps are just ongoing, and just not odd days ,ridiculous for june in our so called warming climate ,  as the ipcc would have us believe

[knocker]

actually I mentioned a lot of days at 15 to 17c,  but there have been quite a few at 12 to 14c too,  these low temps are just ongoing, and just not odd days ,ridiculous for june in our so called warming climate ,  as the ipcc would have us believe

 

And what precisely has a short period of average to just below temps in the UK got to do with global warming? And If the latter is so called somebody forgot to tell the melting glaciers.This thread is supposed to be about model related matters not a haven for AGW deniers.

[johnholmes]

actually I mentioned a lot of days at 15 to 17c,  but there have been quite a few at 12 to 14c too,  these low temps are just ongoing, and just not odd days ,ridiculous for june in our so called warming climate ,  as the ipcc would have us believe

 

the warming climate has got zilch to do with day to day weather, the word climate is the clue!

[carinthian]

actually I mentioned a lot of days at 15 to 17c,  but there have been quite a few at 12 to 14c too,  these low temps are just ongoing, and just not odd days ,ridiculous for june in our so called warming climate ,  as the ipcc would have us believe

It must be very frustrating for the folk in the Northwest. Certainly a cool start to the summer so far and the wind would drive me mad. Have been looking for a home in the Trough of Bowland, the weather is not the attraction, but the countryside and the folk are more important. Another wonderful sunny day here on the south coast with 21c and just a gentle breeze. 250 miles further south makes a huge difference in the summer season. Any comfort, only 11c today in Stockholm and they are getting fed up with the nagging winds as well. Whilst , NW Europe is in a colder zone at the moment, Western Canada in drought and heat conditions.

C

[William of Walworth]

Yes low pressure would be lovely the aridity of this month is very telling on my garden.

 

You're clearly not going anywhere near Glastonbury.

 

Next week : literally the WORST week of the year (for us Somerset-goers) to be a washout

 

(as currently threatened on latest runs)

Edited June 18, 2015 by William of Walworth

[William of Walworth]

I've been out since 1 pm, and I was desparate for the 12z runs to show somne more positivity, possibly strengthening some UKMO hints from earlier (00z) that conditions would be reasonable enough in the South.

 

Instead, I come back and prospects look like they've significantly worsened for next week. Glastonbury week.

 

Any (SW-focussed, or any) reasurrance for us Glasto-goers? Anywhere? At all?

[Mokidugway]

I've been out since 1 pm, and I was desparate for the 12z runs to show somne more positivity, possibly strengthening some UKMO hints from earlier (00z) that conditions would be reasonable enough in the South.

 

Instead, I come back and prospects look like they've significantly worsened for next week. Glastonbury week.

 

Any (SW-focussed, or any) reasurrance for us Glasto-goers? Anywhere? At all?

not looking good I'm afraid , could do with a break after last years kendal calling mud bath ...

[William of Walworth]

Most likely out of date already though. Grimsville!

 

I'm seriously censored-off. Up to last Friday, 12th June, ALL synoptics, all models,  were showing a glorious late June throughout.

 

No sign of that now.

Edited June 19, 2015 by Polar Maritime
To remove of topic BBC discussion.

[Mokidugway]

I'm seriously censored-off. Up to last Friday, 12th June, ALL synoptics, all models,  were showing a glorious late June throughout.

 

No sign of that now.

bloody annoying not only a crap start to summer a wet glasto would be the unwanted icing on the cake ..

Edited June 19, 2015 by Polar Maritime
To remove deleted quote.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

shocking day forecast for me tomorrow, howling NW wind and 15C with no sun, will feel colder than April I think, shocker forecast after as well

[Daniel*]

You're clearly not going anywhere near Glastonbury.

 

Next week : literally the WORST week of the year (for us Somerset-goers) to be a washout

 

(as currently threatened on latest runs)

From a selfish point of view I don't really care if you are willing to be in the great outdoors then enjoy what the natural world throws at you there is no Glastonbury without wellies.

[Richard2901]

June permacast well and truly set in now. Little sunshine this week and all the models show for the next week is cloud, cloud and more cloud. Exactly the same gut-wrenchingly awful dross we were forced to endure this time last year and countless other summers since 2007, in particular 2007 and 2012. The worst spell of weather all year in another abomination of a summer month.

 

This means yet another weekend from hell coming up. Post 2006 the summer solstice weekend has been the worst of the year without a doubt. Wouldn't surprise me if the winter solstice weekend averages more sunshine now 

 

Into the 2nd half of June and the warmest it has reached on any Saturday this year is 15.3C. Absolutely pathetic beyond words. It's a temperature that could be achieved at any time of year even mid-winter. Indeed, Sunday 26th January 2003 managed 17C. Apart from 18.7C on 5th April, it hasn't exceeded 15.3C on a Sunday either. It has also been the wettest day of the week by far this year.

 

It seems this revolting month may even top last June for ghastly weekend weather. The four Saturdays of June 2014 aggregated a joke total of 6.8 hours sunshine. This month has had 4.9 hours on the 6th, a big fat zero for the 13th and current model output suggests another dire total for the 20th. Even June 2012 had two passable Saturdays (2nd and 30th).

[IanR]

the cool atlantic will ruin not just june, but the whole summer imo,

 

when was the last time that  may , june , july, august were all below average in succession in the same year, could it happen this year ? 

[Captain Shortwave]

I do feel many are being a bit premature on declaring the Glastonbury weekend a washout, in fact the ECM ens look fairly dry and warm with the Azores high having enough of an influence to kill off any bands of rain. That said the north looks more mixed.

Remember, Greenland high doesn't always equal cool and wet.

[Scorcher]

 

June permacast well and truly set in now. Little sunshine this week and all the models show for the next week is cloud, cloud and more cloud. Exactly the same gut-wrenchingly awful dross we were forced to endure this time last year and countless other summers since 2007, in particular 2007 and 2012. The worst spell of weather all year in another abomination of a summer month.

 

This means yet another weekend from hell coming up. Post 2006 the summer solstice weekend has been the worst of the year without a doubt. Wouldn't surprise me if the winter solstice weekend averages more sunshine now 

 

Into the 2nd half of June and the warmest it has reached on any Saturday this year is 15.3C. Absolutely pathetic beyond words. It's a temperature that could be achieved at any time of year even mid-winter. Indeed, Sunday 26th January 2003 managed 17C. Apart from 18.7C on 5th April, it hasn't exceeded 15.3C on a Sunday either. It has also been the wettest day of the week by far this year.

 

It seems this revolting month may even top last June for ghastly weekend weather. The four Saturdays of June 2014 aggregated a joke total of 6.8 hours sunshine. This month has had 4.9 hours on the 6th, a big fat zero for the 13th and current model output suggests another dire total for the 20th. Even June 2012 had two passable Saturdays (2nd and 30th).

 

 

Even by your standards you've excelled yourself here Richard. The Victor Meldrew of the forum. It would be interesting to see what Richard's most frequently used words have been over all his posts. I Imagine the words 'awful', 'ghastly' and 'revolting' could be the top 3!

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Very tempted to book a holiday elsewhere for a couple of weeks tomorrow! Florida or somewhere. Barely anything to look forward to right now or in the foreseeable either.

Would even go as far as saying that this June is making June 2012 seem half decent in terms of exciting weather. Utterly beyond shocking.

[IanR]

at least june 2012 had a good thunderstorm for many,  this year utterly boring, really shocking, but boring tedious samey non weather is becoming the norm, so this is the reality of   'climate change'   

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

at least june 2012 had a good thunderstorm for many,  this year utterly boring, really shocking, but boring tedious samey non weather is becoming the norm, so this is the reality of   'climate change'   

Worst I've ever known it. Even storm capital next to me has been exceptionally quiet (Lincolnshire). That speaks volumes of how bad this year has been thus far. Never known anything like it. Its getting really frustrating now tbh, especially given the fact that nothing remotely exciting is being modelled either.   

[mushymanrob]

I can stand the cool if its sunny and dry...

In the absence of heat and sun obvs!

[Scorcher]

I can stand the cool if its sunny and dry...

In the absence of heat and sun obvs!

 

Thing is Mushy, for us in the west at least the northwesterlies deliver neither sun nor warmth a lot of the time. Today was truly awful for this stage in June in these parts. Okay there was no rain but it actually felt bitter this morning with the low dew point and raw wind and it was only marginally less unpleasant in the afternoon. There was some sun at times but not enough to compensate for the chilly air. Sick of that cold polar air and how it feels on the skin.

 

Today I actually found myself wanting air from a warmer source at any cost- including a few spells of rain if necessary. I understand in your line of work that that would not be desirable but we can get this 'fresh' weather at most times of the year, and I'd prefer some warmth now even if it's not settled.

Edited June 18, 2015 by Scorcher

[bobbydog]

lovely summers day here today, repairing and oiling decking, topping up the tan. (model) forecast's not too bad either....😛

"Definition of banter in English:noun[MASS NOUN]

The playful and friendly exchange of teasing remarks:"

Edited June 18, 2015 by bobbydog

[stainesbloke]

at least june 2012 had a good thunderstorm for many, this year utterly boring, really shocking, but boring tedious samey non weather is becoming the norm, so this is the reality of 'climate change'

Agree with the term 'non-weather' entirely. It seems the one age-old common thread in the British climate - changeable weather - has vanished. We are instead often experiencing a long period of virtually the same weather.

This year has been SO dreary. Nothing horrifically bad (no dangerous floods, etc) but just very unexciting and often irritating. Endless howling NW winds, generally cold and often dull, but dry as the Sahara here! It's quite upsetting to see the late Spring/early Summer period (which should be full of lush green growth) so awfully dry and dusty, with grass turning brown and other plants withering. If we had been experiencing an early heatwave, fine, but no, it's generally been bloody freezing with little opportunity to sit outside comfortably. And as for the lack of any proper heat or storms....don't even go there lol...July and Aug have a lot to live up to.

However, at least many days have had 'usable' weather (annoying phrase). Though if I read 'at least it's/it'll be dry' again I'll scream lol. Not much fun when you have two allotments and are trying to be self sufficient in fruit/veg!

Edited June 18, 2015 by stainesbloke

[Polar Maritime]

Back on topic please, There is a summer thread open for general discussion.

[summer blizzard]

the cool atlantic will ruin not just june, but the whole summer imo,

 

when was the last time that  may , june , july, august were all below average in succession in the same year, could it happen this year ? 

 

The last time Q3 saw all 3 months below average (July-Sep) was 08.

The last summer with all 3 months below average (Jun-Aug) was 11.

The last May-Jul period was 1996 (12 and 97 had months bang on average).

 

The answer to your May-Aug question though was all the way back in 1987.  

[cheeky_monkey]

You ask why people are complaining and then ramble on about the weather in your back yard - well, believe it or not, the weather varies from location to location! It's currently 13C, cloudy and windy here - so please forgive me for complaining.

Exactly you constantly moan about the weather IYB in every thread across this forum as though that's what it is like everywhere...so I thought I would tell everyone IMBY its been far from crap

Edited June 19, 2015 by cheeky_monkey