Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Spring/Summer 2015.

[stainesbloke]

You are lucky then, weight makes no difference in Summer, I am 122 lbs and get too hot, weight does make difference in winter, normally people around 20 stone sweat after a few steps

My point was that normal, healthy people should find the general summer climate in the UK very easy to cope with physically, as heat is not usually excessive or long lasting. It does make me laugh how most countries in the world seem to cope with heat quite normally and go about their daily lives without 'sweating excessively', getting headaches, etc, just like the millions of Brits going abroad every year to seek sun and warmth. How anyone enjoys 17C, wind and cloud in summer really is a mystery to me. But of course, each to their own.

Charts generally show warmth heading our way in FI but nothing excessive (as yet) so all you sweaty ones should be ok lol...

[summer blizzard]

My point was that normal, healthy people should find the general summer climate in the UK very easy to cope with physically, as heat is not usually excessive or long lasting. It does make me laugh how most countries in the world seem to cope with heat quite normally and go about their daily lives without 'sweating excessively', getting headaches, etc, just like the millions of Brits going abroad every year to seek sun and warmth. How anyone enjoys 17C, wind and cloud in summer really is a mystery to me. But of course, each to their own.

Charts generally show warmth heading our way in FI but nothing excessive (as yet) so all you sweaty ones should be ok lol...

 

I'm not sure anybody enjoys wind and cloud.

[dbaloo]

net weather.....sponsored by weight watchers since June 2015

[AderynCoch]

I can understand people moaning about hot weather when it's actually hot, but guilt-tripping people about wanting such weather when it's constantly cool and blustery with temperatures in the teens is taking the biscuit. Live and let live.

[IanR]

 the temp barely even made the teens today ,  well it did , just,   but it was kicking and screaming doing so ,  and then went back to 12c were it was happier

[Mokidugway]

Seems to be an improvement here 17 c and sun !!!!!!!

[BlueHedgehog074]

Does anyone know where I can find the Model Banter, Moans and Ramp thread please? I've looked everywhere, but just can't find it. But perhaps if some of the members in this thread got back on topic and used this thread instead for general Summer chat/moans: https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82826-summer-2015/, I might just find it again.

Edited June 22, 2015 by DiagonalRedLine

[Costa Del Fal]

Charts going down the pan again. Strong Greenland heights and deep low pressures just affecting the UK as usual on gfs 12z fi.

Cfs has been confident of a decent July but wouldn't surprise me of the NW winds return soon.

Those Greenland heights keep being upgraded. Could stick around for some time. No doubt they will disappear for winter again.

Edited June 22, 2015 by Costa Del Fal

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Charts going down the pan again. Strong Greenland heights and deep low pressures just affecting the UK as usual on gfs 12z fi.

Cfs has been confident of a decent July but wouldn't surprise me of the NW winds return soon.

Those Greenland heights keep being upgraded. Could stick around for some time. No doubt they will disappear for winter again.

 

CFS is about as reliable as a flea

[cheese]

I'm pleased with the outlook. Forecast has highs of 21-24C for here which is fine by me. Also lows in the 11-14C range so hopefully goodbye to cold nights.

Edited June 22, 2015 by cheese

[AWD]

I'm pleased with the outlook. Forecast has highs of 21-24C for here which is fine by me. Also lows in the 11-14C range so hopefully goodbye to cold nights.

All you need now is for the forecast to actually materialize.

[cheese]

All you need now is for the forecast to actually materialize.

Fingers crossed.

[summer blizzard]

Charts going down the pan again. Strong Greenland heights and deep low pressures just affecting the UK as usual on gfs 12z fi.

Cfs has been confident of a decent July but wouldn't surprise me of the NW winds return soon.

Those Greenland heights keep being upgraded. Could stick around for some time. No doubt they will disappear for winter again.

 

I know it's an unpopular opinion (and i could be wrong) however while this summer has delivered the odd warm plume, it's never managed to get a high sustainable east of the UK. This is a poor omen to me. 

 

*Not suggesting an 07/12 scenario obviously however i think 09/10 is the best this summer will be overall.

[Winter Cold]

Well the GFS 12z is a shock, big downgrades for Europe as a whole, but especialy the UK. We remain susceptable to lows coming in and pretty changable right the way through. We have lost the very high 850s and these dont really hang around in France anymore either for example, so its a big turn around.

 

Was expecting it to be an outlier but its not at all, fairly good support from the ensembles. Some big strong new signal must have been picked up today.

 

ECM whilst still not brilliant for the Uk does hang onto something better for Europe with the high 850s making it through....

[mushymanrob]

I'm pleased with the outlook. Forecast has highs of 21-24C for here which is fine by me. Also lows in the 11-14C range so hopefully goodbye to cold nights.

I agree with your sentiments, but tbh as some others have pointed out, the good weather has always been in fi, downgrading nearer the time. It seems the models for the last six weeks or so have been progging summer warmth, settled, sunny, in fi for it never to materialise.

The big question is..... Is this summer destined to be a complete frustrated let down, despite fi teases, or will it deliver a long overdue hot one to rival 76, 83, 90, 95, 03, and others.

[Scorcher]

I agree with your sentiments, but tbh as some others have pointed out, the good weather has always been in fi, downgrading nearer the time. It seems the models for the last six weeks or so have been progging summer warmth, settled, sunny, in fi for it never to materialise.

The big question is..... Is this summer destined to be a complete frustrated let down, despite fi teases, or will it deliver a long overdue hot one to rival 76, 83, 90, 95, 03, and others.

 

2013 was one of the best summers here in the North West for a long time, Weather-history's summer index was only behind 1995 in the recent past if I remember rightly. So I'd like to believe there is a hot one on the cards- however I don't think we could complain about 2013 here at all- it was an excellent summer despite very few very hot days (over 30C).

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I agree with your sentiments, but tbh as some others have pointed out, the good weather has always been in fi, downgrading nearer the time. It seems the models for the last six weeks or so have been progging summer warmth, settled, sunny, in fi for it never to materialise.

The big question is..... Is this summer destined to be a complete frustrated let down, despite fi teases, or will it deliver a long overdue hot one to rival 76, 83, 90, 95, 03, and others.

 

Same, if not more so in winter, good weather stays in FI, I'm probably in minority as I prefer winter cold to Summer heat by a long way

[h2005__uk__]

It seems like a brief hot spell is definitely on the cards at the turn of the month - just a matter of exactly how hot things will get.

 

The GFS 0z run had the SE down for about 31/32C on 1st July, but this has been downgraded to the mid-20s on the 6z run. Still all to play for I suppose!

[Guest]

I think I'll probably spend a lot of time posting in this thread being a heat lover.

 

Seems unlikely to me anyting apporaching hot will be seen by those outside the extreme south east in the next two weeks. The models are struggling with the affects of the cooler SSTs in the north western Atlantic and the resulting slightly flatter Jet and a more standard SW/NE orientated flow we normally see. Add in the still not resolved overly agressive westerly positioning of plume events and leads to believe that until something hot is modelled with 3-5days it is effectively FI at the moment.

[mushymanrob]

2013 was one of the best summers here in the North West for a long time, Weather-history's summer index was only behind 1995 in the recent past if I remember rightly. So I'd like to believe there is a hot one on the cards- however I don't think we could complain about 2013 here at all- it was an excellent summer despite very few very hot days (over 30C).

 

my problem with summer 13, is that it was only a 3 week affair, in july, even then one weekend was cold and dull as we had a northeasterly straight off that bloody north sea... and when the heatwave broke, it became very wet.

so i dont rate summer 13, but july was good!

[Polar Maritime]

A reminder that this thread is for 'Model banter/ramps'.

There is a Summer thread open for general chat.

[mushymanrob]

i just wish the models would produce something hot, high pressure dominated, settled, sunny... as gibby says, we are on the periphery of the real heat expected next week. so near yet so far... how frustrating!

[stainesbloke]

i just wish the models would produce something hot, high pressure dominated, settled, sunny... as gibby says, we are on the periphery of the real heat expected next week. so near yet so far... how frustrating!

That's if the real heat shows up on the continent at all, some runs don't even have that on the near continent. Normally when France etc heat up then at the very least the S and E UK join in. We shall see though, loads of uncertainty but it's obvious the cold Atlantic is causing the models headaches and thus much reduced accuracy mid to long term. Nothing I'd rather see than heat, sun and storms but just looks a continuation of the dreary fest, albeit a bit warmer.

[Guest]

That's if the real heat shows up on the continent at all, some runs don't even have that on the near continent. Normally when France etc heat up then at the very least the S and E UK join in. We shall see though, loads of uncertainty but it's obvious the cold Atlantic is causing the models headaches and thus much reduced accuracy mid to long term. Nothing I'd rather see than heat, sun and storms but just looks a continuation of the dreary fest, albeit a bit warmer.

 

The most recent GFS sweeps the European heat away from northern, central France and the low countries quickly so your absolutely right there. I'm not sure whats wrose knowing its 32C 80miles away from me over in Cherbourg or having that 500miles away in central Germany or France.

[Guest]

I wouldn't really worry about that at the moment. The reason why the GFS keeps suddenly shifting the plume over us, and then into Europe on different runs is because it, and the other models just haven't got a clue. There are so many factors that could affect it at the moment.

 

And welcome to the forum, by the way.

 

Thank you,

 

Completely agree FI is effectively next Monday at the moment as far as I'm concerned. That being said I bet the flatter jet and plume ending up much further east the most likely outcome as much as I hate saying it. Its very rare there is a significant westwards corrections of plumes.