Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Spring/Summer 2015.

[Evening thunder]

Are things just the same as in the past and the models would have had such a westerly bias then,  or has our climate changed somehow with less/shorter lived plumes, which the models don't pick up until the reliable timeframe? :/

 

I have noted a theme for intense/record heat down towards southern Europe/Iberia at times this year.. in May even Valencia on the east coast recorded 40C one day,  17C above average which smashed it's record for that month.

 

Apparently the Atlantic SST pattern is thought to correlate with above average pressure over Northern Europe (read it in a Met Office contingency planners forecast).. and El Nino seems to have some correlation with a poorer June but better July/August..

 

so my best guess for summer is still a better July and/or August, and if the heat remains down south it may be drawn our way at some point? but knowing us, perhaps not...

Edited June 23, 2015 by Evening thunder

[MP-R]

Are things just the same as in the past and the models would have had such a westerly bias then,  or has our climate changed somehow with less/shorter lived plumes, which the models don't pick up until the reliable timeframe? :/

 

I have noted a theme for intense/record heat down towards southern Europe/Iberia at times this year.. in May even Valencia on the east coast recorded 40C one day,  17C above average which smashed it's record for that month.

 

Apparently the Atlantic SST pattern is thought to correlate with above average pressure over Northern Europe (read it in a Met Office contingency planners forecast).. and El Nino seems to have some correlation with a poorer June but better July/August..

 

so my best guess for summer is still a better July and/or August, and if the heat remains down south it may be drawn our way at some point? but knowing us, perhaps not...

 

Was 1998 an El Nino year? If so, I'm pretty sure June was the worst of the summer months (even though we even managed a brief plume then). The best spell of the summer was in early August from what I remember.

[stainesbloke]

The most recent GFS sweeps the European heat away from northern, central France and the low countries quickly so your absolutely right there. I'm not sure whats wrose knowing its 32C 80miles away from me over in Cherbourg or having that 500miles away in central Germany or France.

Welcome to the forum!

Yes, it's all following a depressingly familiar pattern which we've seen a lot of since 2006. Of course it could all change back to mega plume and heat wave but don't we say that every time and end up with 18C and drizzle? I'd say the real heat will be in C and E Europe, quite rare for N France to be so hot and not the SE of England too but we'll see. FI around 100 hours IMHO.

[Evening thunder]

Was 1998 an El Nino year? If so, I'm pretty sure June was the worst of the summer months (even though we even managed a brief plume then). The best spell of the summer was in early August from what I remember.

 

I believe so though not sure if El Nino had ended by summer without looking in detail, it was towards the end of it rather than the beginning I think but one can hope something similar happens this year in terms of June having been the poorer month

[mushymanrob]

The most recent GFS sweeps the European heat away from northern, central France and the low countries quickly so your absolutely right there. I'm not sure whats wrose knowing its 32C 80miles away from me over in Cherbourg or having that 500miles away in central Germany or France.

 

welcome to the forum, its interesting in here at times...lol..

where are you from? you can put your location in your avatar bit thing (see im not very technical! lol)

[Guest]

Fridays rapidly becoming a naff day with the weekend also looking like it will be cool, breezey and overcast. Remember 18-20C is now below par for large parts of the south as we enter what is technically high summer, with plenty of cloud it won't feel like high summer!

[Methuselah]

Fridays rapidly becoming a naff day with the weekend also looking like it will be cool, breezey and overcast. Remember 18-20C is now below par for large parts of the south as we enter what is technically high summer, with plenty of cloud it won't feel like high summer!

What does 'high summer' actually feel like, then? 21-23C, averagely humid and partly cloudy, and with the added chance of intermittent rain? Isn't that what the weekend is likely to be?

[A.J]

Fridays rapidly becoming a naff day with the weekend also looking like it will be cool, breezey and overcast. Remember 18-20C is now below par for large parts of the south as we enter what is technically high summer, with plenty of cloud it won't feel like high summer!

each to their own I guess....GFS progs 22C with light to moderate WSW breezes for my area with periods of sunshine and cloud with no ppn to speak of...sounds quite fair conditions IMO

[Eugene]

Fridays rapidly becoming a naff day with the weekend also looking like it will be cool, breezey and overcast. Remember 18-20C is now below par for large parts of the south as we enter what is technically high summer, with plenty of cloud it won't feel like high summer!

 

 

 

Yes after a very dry pleasant period it looks like our luck runs out with an unsettled period starting friday as you say, saturday looks ok before more dull wet weather on sunday, next tuesday onwards looks unsettled and breezy with winds turning more westerly by next thursday/friday.

[Richard2901]

Vile and disgusting 2007/2012 abomination is how this summer is turning out. Just 6 hours of sun in the past week now -less than half the total of the dullest week of last winter 

 

Suffice to say if the current model output is anywhere near accurate this will go down as the worst ever second half of June. With seemingly no end to this permacast hell, the sunshine total for the second half of the month could be as low as 15-20 hours. A disgrace at any time of year

 

Temperatures continuing at joke levels too. Just 11C now. Thankfully I'll be enjoying real summer in Ibiza in 16 hours time. Will be the first time I've experienced even 20C since being in Tenerife last November. Incredibly the last time I experienced it here was on 16th August as the only day to reach it since then (25th September) I was in Edinburgh.

 

Just ridiculous and even the 1960s - the worst decade for warmth in the 20th Century - wasn't as grim as this.

 

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Vile and disgusting 2007/2012 abomination is how this summer is turning out. Just 6 hours of sun in the past week now -less than half the total of the dullest week of last winter 

 

Suffice to say if the current model output is anywhere near accurate this will go down as the worst ever second half of June. With seemingly no end to this permacast hell, the sunshine total for the second half of the month could be as low as 15-20 hours. A disgrace at any time of year

 

Temperatures continuing at joke levels too. Just 11C now. Thankfully I'll be enjoying real summer in Ibiza in 16 hours time. Will be the first time I've experienced even 20C since being in Tenerife last November. Incredibly the last time I experienced it here was on 16th August as the only day to reach it since then (25th September) I was in Edinburgh.

 

Just ridiculous and even the 1960s - the worst decade for warmth in the 20th Century - wasn't as grim as this.

 

surely with winds due from the SW, Aberdeen would see the best weather? sheltered from rain/fronts etc

[Costa Del Fal]

Charts are deteriorating more and more into July. Disappointing. Those heights over Greenland won't shift.

Edited June 23, 2015 by Costa Del Fal

[A.J]

A God awful gfs12z run from T168 onwards....low pressure parked to the north of the UK with an endless supply of cool NW winds.....thank goodness it's not set in stone and time for the synoptic to change

[Costa Del Fal]

A God awful gfs12z run from T168 onwards....low pressure parked to the north of the UK with an endless supply of cool NW winds.....thank goodness it's not set in stone and time for the synoptic to change

Probably won't because nw winds are now the default. Why does pressure rise so easily in Greenland over summer?

July currently looks like becoming worse than June....

[Bradowl]

I'm pleased with the outlook. Forecast has highs of 21-24C for here which is fine by me. Also lows in the 11-14C range so hopefully goodbye to cold nights.

 

Is this sat in front of a fire?? 

 

Hudson just given a forecast and 19c is max over next few days, also hinted that further outlook doesn't look good for any prolong summery weather.

[lynp]

Exceptionally cold and wet weather forecast for here in Glasgow. NW winds continue to blight us. Used to dislike winter, but other than the daylight hours not much difference.

[Summer Sun]

A God awful gfs12z run from T168 onwards....low pressure parked to the north of the UK with an endless supply of cool NW winds.....thank goodness it's not set in stone and time for the synoptic to change

 

Thankfully the ens is a bit better

 

[Bradowl]

These charts Frosty and co keep posting on other thread showing some heat always seem to be about 10 days away but never seem to come off apart from an odd day or two in far south east..

 

Keep trying boys I'm sure one will come off sooner or later.     

[Winter Cold]

Lol, you know its bad when the GEM and other cannon fodder models get rolled out in the mod thread!! Its like winter in reverse round here atm, clinging on to anything that offers what we want.

 

The GFS is nothing short of horrible, and other models are going that way and watering down anything warm and dry. I thought we were on the cusp of something hot but thats all out the window now im afraid.

[Sweatyman]

Charts are deteriorating more and more into July. Disappointing. Those heights over Greenland won't shift.

sure they'll shift by november/December lol

[Guest]

Waste of time posting charts 6plus days away at the moment. Cool and unsettled looks to rule the roost for the foreeable future. In my experience if that low forms and slowly creeps across the UK id say we can write of the first third of July with regards to any heat as the pattern will take a while to reset itself.

[Costa Del Fal]

What have we done to deserve such an awful spell of blandness and cool conditions? Never known such persistently average conditions. If the current charts continue for another week or so, most of July will begin to look a wrote off. Barely any storms or warmth. It just all stinks of poor and below average. The cold weather fans are having it very lucky this year.

[AWD]

And as for the most reliable timeframe of all, ie today and tomorrow, for my locale its perfect.

Warm but not too warm, light breeze, strong sunshine and low humidity.

Perfect for sitting in a pub garden, speaking of which.......

[Costa Del Fal]

sure they'll shift by november/December lol

Indeed they will. The Greenland heights seen in December 2010 to deliver that cold were nothing short of exceptional and don't expect to see that much in my lifetime. Everything in this country has become so average at best.

The jet never seems amplified anymore. I admire Tamara for her in depth Knowledge of our weather but it has to be said all this promise of increase AAM tendency clearly isn't materialising and I don't expect it to tbh. It's downgraded like everything else.

Even westerlies can't achieve average anymore because of the cold Atlantic which could quite frankly stay like that for some years to come if the Atlantic has moved into a cold mode.

[Methuselah]

What have we done to deserve such an awful spell of blandness and cool conditions? Never known such persistently average conditions. If the current charts continue for another week or so, most of July will begin to look a wrote off. Barely any storms or warmth. It just all stinks of poor and below average. The cold weather fans are having it very lucky this year.

I don't know...the same thing we did in May-June 1983?