Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Spring/Summer 2015.

[cheese]

I think people severely underestimate the types of temperatures we'd get if such charts being churned out by the ECM came to fruition.

 

Does nobody remember the early August 1990 heatwave? Here's the evolution of that spell..

 

31 July - unremarkable, largely sub-10C.

 

 

3 days later.. again nothing ground-breaking, but temperatures reached the mid-30s widely across England with 850pha temps that were nothing exceptional.. 37.1C in Cheltenham, 36.5C in Cambridge, 34.4C in Leeds, 33.1C in Harrogate, 32.5C in Durham, 30.8C in Fife..

 

 

By the 5th, say goodbye..

 

 

By the 6th, 2C uppers flood down from the north..

 

Edited June 24, 2015 by cheese

[Methuselah]

idiot..... this was supposed to be in the model discussion thread....

 

Done that for you, Mushy...

[summer blizzard]

I think people severely underestimate the types of temperatures we'd get if such charts being churned out by the ECM came to fruition.

 

Does nobody remember the early August 1990 heatwave? Here's the evolution of that spell..

 

31 July - unremarkable, largely sub-10C.

 

 

3 days later.. again nothing ground-breaking, but temperatures reached the mid-30s widely across England with 850pha temps that were nothing exceptional.. 37.1C in Cheltenham, 36.5C in Cambridge, 34.4C in Leeds, 33.1C in Harrogate, 32.5C in Durham, 30.8C in Fife..

 

 

By the 5th, say goodbye..

 

 

By the 6th, 2C uppers flood down from the north..

 

 

I don't think we can compare 1990 to this. In 1990 the UK had high pressure sat over it pretty much completely from 11th-25th July plus several days before the peak and near record low rainfall since March such that some places went a month without rainfall before the 1990 peak in early August. 

 

What this all means is that soil moisture profiles were extremely dry and heat was already being absorbed at the surface such that it probably survived the 4 day spell (25th-29th July) which split the two spells. Additionally, the synoptic was superior in my opinion. 

 

..

 

We'll get into the 30C's with a 15C+ isotherm but i don't see anything above 34C in the south myself and our record in Leeds i'm certain will survive. 

[cheese]

Perhaps not - but in Leeds, the temperatures prior to the actual heatwave itself were in the 18-24C range, so certainly not hot. Plus, the ground is pretty dry right now - we've had about 18mm this month. May was pretty wet admittedly but the year until then was dry - 11mm in April for example.

 

I don't think we're going to get to 34C, but if the ECMs earlier charts came to fruition and we had 20C uppers all the way to Glasgow, I think some very hot weather would come about.

[mushymanrob]

Done that for you, Mushy...

 

cheers

[Evening thunder]

Looking at the GFS 06z... all I can say is "HOORAY FOR THE SCANDY HIGH!"

 

HGT.png 850Temps.png Temps.png

 

Scandy high: usually good whatever time of year, Azores high: usually bad whatever time of year (at least for anything interesting), and my location is relatively sheltered from NW winds

Edited June 24, 2015 by Evening thunder

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Absolute stonker of a run from the GFS. Even a reload is being modelled with a renewed push of extreme heat from N. Africa and Spain in FI !

Imminent BANK from Frosty I'm sure will be incoming !

[Guest]

Absolute stonker of a run from the GFS. Even a reload is being modelled with a renewed push of extreme heat from N. Africa and Spain in FI !

Imminent BANK from Frosty I'm sure will be incoming !

 

I'd bank this run in a flash! Best model output of the year by a country mile!

[stainesbloke]

Yup, fabulous output today by the models especially goofus and GEM, hot hot hot, chances of some serious storms come any breakdowns and reloads galore. Of course I'll believe it when I see it BUT IT'S ABOUT TIME summer started and I can ditch the hoody!!

[cheshire snow]

I agree but take July 2006 for instance when at times uppers where just 7/8/9c and it was nearly 30c that was due to day on day heating following a long dry and warm spell and not the upper high uppers. The spell next week is totally different and a quick in and out. The lowest few hundred metres of the atmosphere still need to be heated and ideally you need to be starting the day at 20-22c for the UK to get into the high 30s, importing that heat that quickly means you lose a lot of energy warming up from a lower temperature and evaporating moisture that would still be present. Either way 33/34c and humid or any warmer and drier most of the miserable people

in this country will be moaning it's too hot!! I will not be one!!![/quote

Nothing miserable about not liking 34c, that temperature is darn

right dangerous for the vulnerable and elderly, just like any severe

cold in winter. I like the warm weather but 34c is a tad to hot for

me.

C.S

[Guest]

I agree but take July 2006 for instance when at times uppers where just 7/8/9c and it was nearly 30c that was due to day on day heating following a long dry and warm spell and not the upper high uppers. The spell next week is totally different and a quick in and out. The lowest few hundred metres of the atmosphere still need to be heated and ideally you need to be starting the day at 20-22c for the UK to get into the high 30s, importing that heat that quickly means you lose a lot of energy warming up from a lower temperature and evaporating moisture that would still be present. Either way 33/34c and humid or any warmer and drier most of the miserable people

in this country will be moaning it's too hot!! I will not be one!!![/quote

Nothing miserable about not liking 34c, that temperature is darn

right dangerous for the vulnerable and elderly, just like any severe

cold in winter. I like the warm weather but 34c is a tad to hot for

me.

C.S

I agree to an extent however it shouldn't be that way. I trekked in the Australian outback during January about 500km north west of Alice Springs it was mid 40's during the day and never dropped below 30C at night all without an type of air con. As a country we are just badly prepared for warmth (and cold) it does surprise me though as even our older generation now spent most of their summers lounging around on the Costa Del Sol so temps into the 30s really shouldn't be of any concern, especially as they are only over a day or two.

[cheshire snow]

^^^

I agree as a country we are badly prepared wether it heat or cold,

However severe heat or severe cold is rare, for our small island.

The issue for me with the heat is the folk who suffer with

Breathing difficulties, like myself, I suffer from Asthma in the

Summer and need inhalers to control my Asthma, temperature s

In the thirties, would have myself and millions more on high

Alert.

C.S

[Milhouse]

I want the GFS to throw up a run similar to the ECM or GEM ops with 20c 850s touching the UK. Just to see what sort of temperatures it would produce. Ive never seen widespread 30c+ temps for the UK on the GFS before.

[Bradowl]

Looks like it could turn very warm for some next week especially in south east but very debatable how long it will last, still looks mostly unsettled with some rain at times according to bbc news outlook.

 

All this is still open to change been a week away and we still have to get through Friday and Sunday in which both days look like write offs.

Edited June 24, 2015 by Bradowl

[IanR]

the express have jinxed it !!    they have a good track record of saying something then the complete opposite happens 100 percent of the time , so why differnt this time  ,,,,now for the downgrades

[Sweatyman]

the express have jinxed it !!    they have a good track record of saying something then the complete opposite happens 100 percent of the time , so why differnt this time  ,,,,now for the downgrades

yep 100% bloomin papers scupper everything it seems

[knocker]

Who would want to be on holiday in Spain

 

[Costa Del Fal]

Net weather gives feel like temperature of 39/40c given the 18z GFS next Friday. Just mental.

[Costa Del Fal]

The problem is, these charts are so exceptional that they can only really downgrade from tonight's run...

 

Tonight is as good as it gets really.

Indeed. We can all expect it to downgrade from here. But even moderate downgrades from this would still end up very nice. High chance of warm Conditions next week at least look high.

[A.J]

Call this cherry-picking charts, but when you consider that the GFS has a reputation for undercooking temperatures on hot summer days...

 

850.png Temps.png

sadly the goofus18z has got the scale wrong.....it's really in fahrenheit, not celsius....will feel raw in that keen south easterly...winter's coming folks!   

Edited June 24, 2015 by ajpoolshark

[PolarWarsaw]

It's good to see the heat lovers potentially getting something to shout about, they deserve it more than the winter lovers on the average of balance.

However, what is nice about 34c? Sure, when your sipping a vodka coke by a pool in Spain. Fantastic. When your commuting on trains, working in air con lacking shops, can't move for sweating, cant drink beer for the sake of dehyrdration, can't leave the house for burning, can't sleep for being too warm, have elderly people dropping like fly's, train lines buckling and people with a 'hotter' temperature than normal mentally.. All to satisfy a small minority that enjoy these temperatures, I can't get on board with it.

Surely, you can do more and the wider audience can enjoy 23c and a BBQ/Beer than 34c whilst 90% of the population frazzle to death and can't wait to return to normality. I can't be the only one to think that surely?

The one positive is strong storms, but you can guarantee we'd miss the best of it. Hope the warm sunny weather comes just not like it being shown. It would be uncomfortable.

Edited June 25, 2015 by PolarWarsaw

[cheese]

For the same reason people enjoy and yearn for very cold weather in winter? How many on here would take another winter like 62/63 knowing how disruptive it would be and how many people would die - particular the elderly? A lot, I'm certain. December 2010 was bad enough.

This is a weather forum and unless the only type of weather you ever want is mild and tepid then yes some people will struggle. We have no control over the weather so trying to make people feel bad for wanting heat is stupid.

Besides - it's what, two days tops? Can't you grin and bear a couple of hot days? You get your desired weather nearly all year.

Edited June 25, 2015 by cheese

[PolarWarsaw]

For the same reason people enjoy and yearn for very cold weather in winter? How many on here would take another winter like 62/63 knowing how disruptive it would be and how many people would die - particular the elderly? A lot, I'm certain. December 2010 was bad enough.

This is a weather forum and unless the only type of weather you ever want is mild and tepid then yes some people will struggle. We have no control over the weather so trying to make people feel bad for wanting heat is stupid.

Besides - it's what, two days tops? Can't you grin and bear a couple of hot days? You get your desired weather nearly all year.

I'm being bias because I hate that kind of weather. However, the same applies in winter. I'd rather it was 2c than -12 or -22. Yes it's great to do the old 'I was there' kind of thing, but it's just a pointless extremity that puts people and various other things at risk.

2 days I can handle, but judging by today's charts. Your talking a week or so with reloads. Basically unbearable in that case.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Crazy 41.1c is how it will feel in Peterborough apparently!   

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Still think I am in the minority by a long way, liking winter cold over summer heat