Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Spring/Summer 2015.

[cheese]

I'm being bias because I hate that kind of weather. However, the same applies in winter. I'd rather it was 2c than -12 or -22. Yes it's great to do the old 'I was there' kind of thing, but it's just a pointless extremity that puts people and various other things at risk.

2 days I can handle, but judging by today's charts. Your talking a week or so with reloads. Basically unbearable in tat case.

I see two days of low-mid 30s for England - unless you find mid-high 20s 'unbearably hot' for whatever reason.

Ultimately all weather that's even remotely interesting puts people at risk - heat, cold, snow, thunderstorms, windstorms - you name it. However, if we all stopped looking forward to such things forums like this would lose all purpose.

So come on - cut out the sanctimonious rubbish and stop guilt-tripping people.

Edited June 25, 2015 by cheese

[stainesbloke]

For the same reason people enjoy and yearn for very cold weather in winter? How many on here would take another winter like 62/63 knowing how disruptive it would be and how many people would die - particular the elderly? A lot, I'm certain. December 2010 was bad enough.

This is a weather forum and unless the only type of weather you ever want is mild and tepid then yes some people will struggle. We have no control over the weather so trying to make people feel bad for wanting heat is stupid.

Besides - it's what, two days tops? Can't you grin and bear a couple of hot days? You get your desired weather nearly all year.

Agree! Just a reminder that the hot weather isn't even 'nailed on'', let alone here. It amuses me no end that we're all expected to want a 62-63 style winter every year and woe betide anyone that doesn't. Yes, it might be a bit sweaty in a tube train or for sleeping for a few days/nights, but is that so bad? Hardly more than an inconvenience, the rest of non air-con Europe seems to just get on with it and enjoy it, I don't know why some British are so upset about a few hot days unless for health reasons. The other 360 days of the year will be chilly enough in this cold island, perhaps go and buy a decent fan or air con unit for your bedroom, that'll help massively in coping with all the melodrama. Edited June 25, 2015 by stainesbloke

[Evening thunder]

I don't do too well in hot weather, my ideal 'everyday' summer day is around 24c with a nice breeze, however I'd like a couple days of proper 30C+ heat just for the interest and to experience it, and even though I'd find it uncomfortable I'm thinking of staying in my uni house in Egham next week to experience hotter conditions than down here lol! Although I'd have to see how that goes as my top floor room can get too warm even in normal weather..

[MP-R]

Conflicting probabilities of this heatwave coming off. The Daily Express has ramped it up which means an Atlantic storm could be on the horizon. On the other hand, I'm off to the Isle of Man on Thursday which means there almost certainly will be a heatwave, with storms to top it all off. I'll be back on Monday 6th by which time the heatwave will have probably finished.

 

I'll be looking for heatwave opportunities from the 6th onwards as I'm pretty sure the Irish Sea will be the last place to catch any heat next week. July-August 1995 anyone?

[Mapantz]

The last time the 20c 850 got into the UK was for a few hours in August 2003, this scraped the se corner so its a rare thing to happen. The ECM gets the 22c just into the south coast and widely 21's right up into northern England which would be stunning for the UK.

I made a post lastnight, regarding 2003. The GFS showed 20°C uppers over the south for around five days.

[PolarWarsaw]

I see two days of low-mid 30s for England - unless you find mid-high 20s 'unbearably hot' for whatever reason.

Ultimately all weather that's even remotely interesting puts people at risk - heat, cold, snow, thunderstorms, windstorms - you name it. However, if we all stopped looking forward to such things forums like this would lose all purpose.

So come on - cut out the sanctimonious rubbish and stop guilt-tripping people.

 

I'm not trying to guilt trip any of you, I personally couldn't care less about any opinion bar my own. That doesn't mean I won't take the point you are getting at in your posts though. My point is that I'm trying to get over the flipside to everybody who is excited about potentially stifling weather for a couple of days - potentially most of the week. I'd wager that a peak event such as this in winter would grab 50x's more attention than this potentially hot spell over weather will, the MOD thread stats and online traffic for the site will tell you that - so I'm not in the minority I don't think that won't be looking forward to next week. 

 

Not unless I can get a built in bedroom fridge and some AIR-CON to boot.. 

[cheese]

I'd wager that a peak event such as this in winter would grab 50x's more attention than this potentially hot spell over weather will

It would - because, for some inexplicable reason, the prospect of snow and cold is probably the driving force behind every UK weather forum in existence - but most people in the real world wouldn't welcome a winter equivalent with open arms, and I'm willing to bet your average Joe would happily take a week of 27-30C over a week of sub-zero misery. The former can be a minor inconvenience when traveling on public transport, but at least gives people the opportunity to go outside and enjoy themselves. The latter - well, not so much (and this is coming from a person who actually likes snow - a lot).

Edited June 25, 2015 by cheese

[Evening thunder]

Looking at the BBC's 5-10 day forecast which I am assuming comes from Met Office model ensembles so hopefully isn't off topic,

 

These have been consistently upgrading with the mean now reaching 30C for London and the most extreme ensemble(s) showing 37C.. For Paris the mean high is 36C one day with the most extreme ensembles showing 43C!   2.6C above its record high.. earlier this morning I noticed the top extreme was showing a slightly unbelievable 45C.. but I'd probably question the sanity of that ensemble member. 

 

  

Edited June 25, 2015 by Evening thunder

[mushymanrob]

Who would want to be on holiday in Spain

 

my youngest is working in ibiza... lovin the heat.

 

However, what is nice about 34c? Sure, when your sipping a vodka coke by a pool in Spain. Fantastic. When your commuting on trains, working in air con lacking shops, can't move for sweating, cant drink beer for the sake of dehyrdration, can't leave the house for burning, can't sleep for being too warm, have elderly people dropping like fly's, train lines buckling and people with a 'hotter' temperature than normal mentally.. All to satisfy a small minority that enjoy these temperatures, I can't get on board with it.

Surely, you can do more and the wider audience can enjoy 23c and a BBQ/Beer than 34c whilst 90% of the population frazzle to death and can't wait to return to normality. I can't be the only one to think that surely?

The one positive is strong storms, but you can guarantee we'd miss the best of it. Hope the warm sunny weather comes just not like it being shown. It would be uncomfortable.

 

you talk as if people liking it makes it happen! lol... the weather will do what the weather will do... some of us will enjoy it, others will hate it. c'est la vie!

i guess i like enduring the heat as much as others like enduring the cold, which i detest.

anyway, the expected (not nailed) heatwave doesnt last long, less then a week if the current ops AND anoms are right.

 

ill enjoy every second of it as we dont know when we will get another, 10 days or ten years.

[Steve C]

Good publicity for Netweather?

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3138816/Glastonbury-Wimbledon-UK-weather-Britain-set-hottest-temperatures-year-week.html

 

Normal Daily Mail reader type comments below though.

[Winter Cold]

Some really exciting charts on offer thats for sure, purely from an enthusiasts point of view its great. If this comes off then it will be one of the events we talk about for years!

 

GFS 6z ensembles have mean 850s for South Yorkshire above 10c for the first week of July and just look at the 2nd to 3rd, around 15c for those two days, crazy stuff 

 

 

I cant wait to see what storms we might get. Sheffield doesnt tend to be great, and I cant remember the last time we had a proper storm here but if things play out then ill have my fingers crossed!

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Looking very interesting I must say as we get ever closer by the minute, hour and day.

Off topic, but where is Dave (TEITS) when we need him?

Notice he's been absent for quite a while and his inputs for this kind of stuff over recent years has been superb. Hope he is doing ok.

[matty007]

I really do think it's going to happen this time. You can feel it in the air today. 

[knocker]

Next week BANK

 

The UK is likely to be near the boundary between this tropical continental airmass and a tropical maritime airmass over the Atlantic, but we do expect to see temperatures rise across the whole of the UK for the start of July.

 

Scotland could see highs in the low to mid 20’s (although it may be cloudy here at times), and highs across southern Britain are likely to reach the low 30’s Celsius with a small chance of values in the mid 30’s here.

 

It’s worth saying that there is some uncertainty about how much of the hot weather from the continent will reach us, and it may only last a couple of days before temperatures drop a little. As is traditional with hot weather in the UK in the summer it may end with thunderstorms.

 

Olez.

http://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2015/06/25/hotter-weather-for-the-start-of-july/

Edited June 25, 2015 by knocker

[cheeky_monkey]

I don't mind having a 3-4 day heat wave with big storms rolling through..something akin to the event in July 1968...however a prolonged spell of hot and sultry conditions would be a pain in the backside..a few cool days to follow the heat would be ideal to clear the heat out of my apartment otherwise indoor temperatures keep on rising day after day and it becomes a sauna...oh air con how I miss thee!

[Paul]

Some really exciting charts on offer thats for sure, purely from an enthusiasts point of view its great. If this comes off then it will be one of the events we talk about for years!

 

GFS 6z ensembles have mean 850s for South Yorkshire above 10c for the first week of July and just look at the 2nd to 3rd, around 15c for those two days, crazy stuff 

 

 

I cant wait to see what storms we might get. Sheffield doesnt tend to be great, and I cant remember the last time we had a proper storm here but if things play out then ill have my fingers crossed!

 

We need to raise the scale a bit don't we!

[Costa Del Fal]

We need to raise the scale a bit don't we!

Indeed! The graph makes it seem -25c uppers seem more likely than 20c! Lol

[Gowon]

I don't mind having a 3-4 day heat wave with big storms rolling through..something akin to the event in July 1968...however a prolonged spell of hot and sultry conditions would be a pain in the backside..a few cool days to follow the heat would be ideal to clear the heat out of my apartment otherwise indoor temperatures keep on rising day after day and it becomes a sauna...oh air con how I miss thee!

 

I totally agree with you cm.. if i lived near the coast or i didn't need to work, i'd cope easily with prolonged hot weather. Anyway.. if the charts materialise my plants will be loving those warm nights.

[Costa Del Fal]

Here come the downgrades! To be expected though.

[SizzlingHeat]

Highs of 25 on thursday rather than 35. This is the reason i dont post anymore and just watch and wait for the rampers to sigh in disaapointment but im not dissapointed as i never expected it to actually happen. Shame mind. Would have been nice.

[cheese]

Why does interesting weather constantly allude this miserable island?

 

Too premature? Lol. Hopefully an improvement with the 18z.

[Daniel*]

GFS 12z can go to hell

It does turn quite hellish on Friday in terms of temperature

Edited June 25, 2015 by Daniel*

[Daniel*]

Highs of 25 on thursday rather than 35. This is the reason i dont post anymore and just watch and wait for the rampers to sigh in disaapointment but im not dissapointed as i never expected it to actually happen.

Shame mind. Would have been nice.

Dorset has never been expected to go near that figure. It is just one run from one model no need to panic yet.

Edited June 25, 2015 by Daniel*

[Evening thunder]

I was expecting it to be a lot worse reading these comments tbh.. still looks pretty hot and we still get 2 bites of the 20C uppers cherry

 

Edit: 36C in Kent on Friday so actually just about the hottest surface temp chart I've seen from the GFS lol 

 

Obviously variable inter-run detail and at that range such detail will change though, so we could easily not see such temps or 20C uppers

Edited June 25, 2015 by Evening thunder

[YiRda]

lol @ the downgrade. heat lovers will be mad