Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Spring/Summer 2015.

[Buzz]

It seems to be curiously dead in here and the main model discussion thread ...........

[Harps]

Doesn't look like anything overly noteworthy to me looking at this mornings runs, Wednesday will be hot, low to mid 30's probable but Thursdays highs are no more than 21-24C, Friday 24-27C max generally before another potentially hot day Saturday and breakdown Sunday.

An interesting week ahead no doubt but nothing exceptional, we had 13 consecutive days above 26C here in London last July for example, doesn't look like we'll manage that this time round

Edited June 29, 2015 by Harps

[summer blizzard]

Doesn't look like anything overly noteworthy to me looking at this mornings runs, Wednesday will be hot, low to mid 30's probable but Thursdays highs are no more than 21-24C, Friday 24-27C max generally before another potentially hot day Saturday and breakdown Sunday.

An interesting week ahead no doubt but nothing exceptional, we had 13 consecutive days above 26C here in London last July for example, doesn't look like we'll manage that this time round

 

I know i'll be accused of being a coldie doom monger but i've never really got a vibe from this summer so far. I'm not suggesting an 07/12 of course but i doubt people will remember this summer for anything special bar perhaps a plume or two. 

[cheese]

Doesn't look like anything overly noteworthy to me looking at this mornings runs, Wednesday will be hot, low to mid 30's probable but Thursdays highs are no more than 21-24C, Friday 24-27C max generally before another potentially hot day Saturday and breakdown Sunday.

An interesting week ahead no doubt but nothing exceptional, we had 13 consecutive days above 26C here in London last July for example, doesn't look like we'll manage that this time round

For London, looks like it will reach 26C every day from Monday-Saturday, at least - but there's the potential for 30C every day Tuesday-Saturday. So not bad at all.

[mushymanrob]

It seems to be curiously dead in here and the main model discussion thread ...........

 

nothing much to discuss as the data suggests a pretty unchanged synoptic path developing. ?...

 

I know i'll be accused of being a coldie doom monger but i've never really got a vibe from this summer so far. I'm not suggesting an 07/12 of course but i doubt people will remember this summer for anything special bar perhaps a plume or two. 

 

......... but its still only june! theres 2 months left yet for something to develop (either way). and im one who does get maudlin if the signs are for a poor summer.

im not bothered too much if summers 'normal' or 'average'... thats pleasant enough.

[Daniel*]

It seems to be curiously dead in here and the main model discussion thread ...........

Happens all the time on the final hurdle this the quiet before the storm. I find the MOD thread is most rampant when such exceptional synoptics are being shown in the not so distant future and the anticipation grows and grows with every passing day part of the excitement. Then it goes all static as no more can be really be said as the day speaks for its self. I ponder whether it is just getting repetitive with the same looking charts it is pretty much a sealed deal. There's little divergence to be seen by the models and this is when people have a field-day. I gather if such set up this week repeated all the way till August I bet by then we'd be getting sick of it.

[knocker]

The thought of the MOD thread being rampant has made me go quite weak at the knees. Off for a spot of yoga.

 

Ah................

 

Edited June 29, 2015 by knocker

[Hocus Pocus]

nothing much to discuss as the data suggests a pretty unchanged synoptic path developing. ?...

 

 

......... but its still only june! theres 2 months left yet for something to develop (either way). and im one who does get maudlin if the signs are for a poor summer.

im not bothered too much if summers 'normal' or 'average'... thats pleasant enough.

I quite like average as average brings temps in the low twenty's and variable amounts of sunshine. I think too many get hooked on the exceptional whilst ignoring the fact that average is the norm around these parts.

[Daniel*]

The thought of the MOD thread being rampant has made me go quite weak at the knees. Off for a spot of yoga.

 

Ah................

 

You love it really

[summer blizzard]

nothing much to discuss as the data suggests a pretty unchanged synoptic path developing. ?...

 

 

......... but its still only june! theres 2 months left yet for something to develop (either way). and im one who does get maudlin if the signs are for a poor summer.

im not bothered too much if summers 'normal' or 'average'... thats pleasant enough.

 

Very true and it's a while since we had a normal summer all 3 months so perhaps expectations are too high. 

[mushymanrob]

Very true and it's a while since we had a normal summer all 3 months so perhaps expectations are too high. 

 

.... but in saying that, im not a fan of august, for me, by mid august the party is over, its like the day after boxing day.

[cheeky_monkey]

.... but in saying that, im not a fan of august, for me, by mid august the party is over, its like the day after boxing day.

there is something about August that doesn't quite work for me either but I cant put my finger on it?

[cheese]

I would much rather have a warm August than June. Having a good start to summer followed by a quick degeneration is very disappointing. I'd rather summer start of poor like this year, before slowly improving - leaves a better taste in the mouth. Actually, the first half of June is more like spring than summer - still prone to cool weather in the low teens, or even sub-10C, like in 2012 when we had a max of 9.8C and pouring rain all day - terrible.

 

It's like winter 2010/2011 when we had that amazing December, but Jan and Feb were pants - people were kind of disappointed because the entire winter climaxed early and we had two months of very mundane weather to endure, with not a hint of cold. Or like summer 1993 which was good in June but the rest of summer was dire. Even summer 2006 was a little disappointing because that August was crap.

[Nick L]

there is something about August that doesn't quite work for me either but I cant put my finger on it?

 

Shorter days perhaps? By mid-month the nights are fast drawing in.

[cheeky_monkey]

Shorter days perhaps? By mid-month the nights are fast drawing in.

I actually liked August in Canada because the shorter days meant Autumn began in earnest by the last week or so with trees already a glow with oranges and reds, with some lovely cool mornings followed by warm afternoons.

[stevofunnelcl]

the hot air must be arriving, cause my temper is going up

 

fed up with media hype about heatwaves, yes, the east & south-east could get a few hot days out of this

 

but for other parts of the Uk, it'll be more like 24 hours, before the heat is swept away to the east, taking the risk of any storms with it

 

I'm not sure this is a 'real' spanish plume, whilst yes, the increasing temperatures are coming from the south

 

I keep looking at lightning maps, and there is nothing, portugal, spain, bay of biscay, france

 

To me, a real Spanish Plume, is also storms breaking out down south, and then moving north, in the hot humid airmass

 

Wouldn't surprise me, if the usual happens here, with most storms staying over France, and then moving north-east into the low countries

 

As the last thunder attempt a few weeks ago, was a dud for the uk

[mushymanrob]

there is something about August that doesn't quite work for me either but I cant put my finger on it?

  

Shorter days perhaps? By mid-month the nights are fast drawing in.

Yep, shorter days, lower sun, no swifts, summer flowering plants largely over, old vegetation thats lost its lustre and growth has stopped.

Id sooner have a hot june and july then july august.

But i like early winter in december, early spring, early summer.

[Frosty_wsm]

.... but in saying that, im not a fan of august, for me, by mid august the party is over, its like the day after boxing day.

Don't agree at all with the party being all over by mid August, the end of August 2013 still had very pleasant warm days, which carried over into the first few days of September that year.

Edited June 29, 2015 by Smartie

[mushymanrob]

Don't agree at all with the party being all over by mid August, the end of August 2013 still had very pleasant warm days, which carried over into the first few days of September that year.

Yep.... But in my book theres more to summer then temps and sunny weather. See my sig.

[Wilxy]

Hello All.

 

I would like to share with you all my opinion on the coming heat wave, I think its going to be a great week for heat and with that heat there will be the risk of some thunderstorms, so I can't quite understand why some people are still moaning about not reaching record highs, first off this could be the beginning of a pattern change well into July and the models are still unsure on the weather past next weekend for all we know we could be heading towards the ECM solution which builds high pressure back in next week or the GFS solution which still isn't that bad with things cooling down a little but still pleasant, for us to even be in this current pattern is great ill take this any day over the cooler NW'erly winds we had only a few weeks back    

[Scorcher]

Yep.... But in my book theres more to summer then temps and sunny weather. See my sig.

 

I do understand your point Mushy, although I do very much enjoy hot weather in the 2nd half of August and don't see it as the party being over as such. Obviously this time of year is the best time for hot weather with the strong, high, bright sun and the vegetation still a very lush green. So it is certainly preferable to get hot weather in June/July if possible because of the more vibrant sun and vegetation. However in this country beggars can't be choosers and I'd be more than happy for a hot second half of August to happen.

[cheese]

I do understand your point Mushy, although I do very much enjoy hot weather in the 2nd half of August and don't see it as the party being over as such. Obviously this time of year is the best time for hot weather with the strong, high, bright sun and the vegetation still a very lush green. So it is certainly preferable to get hot weather in June/July if possible because of the more vibrant sun and vegetation. However in this country beggars can't be choosers and I'd be more than happy for a hot second half of August to happen.

During ideal scenarios, perhaps, but August consistently recorded the highest temperatures until recent years. June just isn't warm enough - especially when ocean water is significantly cooler, reducing the potency of hot plumes. Seasonal lag and all that.

 

June is a great month when weather permits, but it's not as reliable as July or August for consistent warmth, hence why I rank it last out of the three summer months - the weather in July and August is simply more likely to be conductive to being outdoors and just enjoying life. That one day in June 2012 when it never exceeded 10C and had about 20mm of rain - nothing like that has occurred in July or August here.

[Scorcher]

June is a great month when weather permits, but it's not as reliable as July or August for consistent warmth, hence why I rank it last out of the three summer months - the weather in July and August is simply more likely to be conductive to being outdoors and just enjoying life. That one day in June 2012 when it never exceeded 10C and had about 20mm of rain - nothing like that has occurred in July or August here.

 

Oh yeah I know the likelihood is probably higher for warmer temperatures in August than June, and the chances of cold days like you mention are also lower (although last August had its fair share of chilly days), but when you do get a hot spell in June there is no better time in my opinion, with the long days, vibrant green vegetation, and strong high sun. As an island nation however, our chances for heat are better in some ways once SSTs rise. 

 

I have to say though, Augusts in recent years have generally been rather cloudy, even the ones that were slightly warmer than average.

[cheese]

They have, yeah. August has been rather lackluster in recent years - August 2013 was warm but not very sunny - about average or slightly below. Usable, but more sun would definitely be nice.

 

2015 to buck the trend perhaps? 2014 was a total horror show!

[ribster]

Heatwave? Not sure what all the fuss is about. Sure, it was a lovely warm summery day today, but with a notable breeze. Very usable weather indeed. Certainly hasn't felt uncomfortable yet, which is usually the case with heatwaves. Looks like mid twenties here most of the week (which is what it was today), maybe something a little hotter on Saturday. I think some are getting carried away with themselves, lovely weather yes, but newsworthy - hardly!