Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Spring/Summer 2015.

[cheese]

Yes I'd agree that Paris is a degree or two warmer generally than London in summer. London in turn is usually a touch warmer than Brussels and more than a touch warmer than Amsterdam. Paris has held onto the heat for over a week whilst London had a few days, but nearly 37C in London is impressive! Those sort of temps will very rarely be recorded outside SE England. But don't forget that before the heat wave, NW Europe was just as chilly as us or more so!

My brother has lived in and around Paris for the last 20 years (til this Spring, when he moved). I've been over there so often in those years that I've gotten to know the climate well. It really isn't much different to where I live in the UK, a touch warmer in summer and a shade cooler in winter. In fact, London has had better snowfalls than Paris in the last 20 years.

As for today, London at 21C is currently warmer than Paris at 18C, Amsterdam at 17C and Leeds at 13C!

Well, the average high in Paris in July is 2C warmer than London. The average high in Leeds in July is 2C cooler than London. London is pretty much half-way between Paris and Leeds in terms of summer temperatures. Leeds tends to be a little cooler but is similar in terms of sunshine and rainfall.

 

All three cities have the same climate though - oceanic. There are just a few minor differences.

[stainesbloke]

Uninspiring latest GFS run, really quite annoying how high summer looks like being ruined by chilly NW winds (again!), cloud and low pressure. Maybe the well overdue hot August will occur this year?

[mushymanrob]

More of a hot snap than a hot spell really.

 

well if this was reversed and it was a short freeze in winter im sure it would be described as a 'cold snap' ... so imho you have a point.

[Roadrunner]

Anyone care to make a forecast for Sunday for Harlow,Essex area? Wash out or showers? Every weather site shows a different forecast!

[mushymanrob]

 

Yes....I've been quite open about the fact that I suspected we'd have a period of hot weather at some point before August. I don't think in any way it will be sustained as a mean summer pattern though and yes I still believe we'll end up with a wet, potentially very wet period.

 

Even with these hot charts you can see the N blocking in evidence...it has all the hallmarks of a poor set up thereafter i.e a warm continent and the potential for slow moving trough should pressure migrate westwards....flooding rains....(FI eventually gets to something akin to this for reference if you want to see what I mean)

 

 

 

so let me get this right, theres northern blocking over greenland ? (yep), and you think it might lead to a 'wet or very wet spell' ? im assuming thats because strong northern blocking in 07, 08, 12, lead to washout summers...

and thats a fair point, assuming thats what you are thinking..

however..... its different this year, because in 07, 08, 12 a strong northern block wasnt the only piece of the jigsaw... it was allowed to divert the jet to our south, but this year we have a strong azores high, that was displaced south/southwest in 07,08,12 which allowed the jet southward. but this year we have a strong azores high thats never far away , and is predicted to be close to us or close enough to prevent a southerly tracking jet.(for long anyway).

im rather pessimistic , but i see no worries about us getting rather wet.

[stainesbloke]

Anyone care to make a forecast for Sunday for Harlow,Essex area? Wash out or showers? Every weather site shows a different forecast!

Drizzle, windy, humid and around 18C tops I'd say. In a word, crap!

[Azazel]

I honestly feel so so sorry for anyone living north of say Birmingham. I want to give everyone in the North a hug.

 

Summer down here has been so decidedly average and benign (apart from the hot snap last week and storms that followed) but up north it looks like it's been absolutely woeful.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I honestly feel so so sorry for anyone living north of say Birmingham. I want to give everyone in the North a hug.

 

Summer down here has been so decidedly average and benign (apart from the hot snap last week and storms that followed) but up north it looks like it's been absolutely woeful.

 

north of b;ham here, been okay summer, not a heat fan, but it's been generally a hot wimbledon, looks grim though next week, as not a fan of unsettled cool low pressure either

[cheese]

North of Birmingham here too - been fine here. June was distinctly average temp-wise, sunny and dry. Half of all days were above 20C, highest 30C on the 30th.

 

Why does everyone down south imagine the entire north to be like some windswept Pennine scene? Do they not know that Leeds receives more sunshine than Cambridge and Oxford in an average year? Summer temps only slightly cooler and rainfall nearly identical. 

 

Sheesh.

[Milhouse]

GEM looks good tonight. But apart from that its next please...

[stainesbloke]

North of Birmingham here too - been fine here. June was distinctly average temp-wise, sunny and dry. Half of all days were above 20C, highest 30C on the 30th.

Why does everyone down south imagine the entire north to be like some windswept Pennine scene? Do they not know that Leeds receives more sunshine than Cambridge and Oxford in an average year? Summer temps only slightly cooler and rainfall nearly identical.

Sheesh.

I didn't know that about Leeds. Always thought the north was much cooler than the south. I lived in Stoke on Trent for 4 years in the early 90s when at Uni and the temperature difference between there and home was always very noticeable.

London currently 20C at 21:45, Stoke 14C and Leeds 12C...quite a gap. Was a beautiful sunny day here, top temp not quite scraping average at 22C but felt much warmer in the sun.

Dreary outlook from all models apart from the GEM...enjoy tomorrow!!

Edited July 9, 2015 by stainesbloke

[Mokidugway]

Need the rain up here to wash our caps and scrub our doorsteps :0.......

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Well, the average high in Paris in July is 2C warmer than London. The average high in Leeds in July is 2C cooler than London. London is pretty much half-way between Paris and Leeds in terms of summer temperatures. Leeds tends to be a little cooler but is similar in terms of sunshine and rainfall.

 

All three cities have the same climate though - oceanic. There are just a few minor differences.

Although similar temperature wise, Paris sees many more thunderstorms on average than London as does Amsterdam. Feels much warmer in general the other side of the water everytime I have been also.

[AderynCoch]

London currently 20C at 21:45, Stoke 14C and Leeds 12C...quite a gap.

Not a normal one though. I strongly suspect the SE has done better compared to its average this summer than places to the north.

[Cheshire Freeze]

A bit damp.....

 

[stainesbloke]

Not a normal one though. I strongly suspect the SE has done better compared to its average this summer than places to the north.

Well apart from last week, summer 2015 hasn't been memorable so far. Nothing like a truly dire year such as 2012 but still lack-lustre, especially further NW. The biggest story here is how dry it is.

[Daniel*]

Not a normal one though. I strongly suspect the SE has done better compared to its average this summer than places to the north.

Significantly so.

A bit damp.....

Who cares it's greatly needed - it would be lovely if the whole country got soaked.

Edited July 9, 2015 by Daniel*

[mushymanrob]

.

Who cares it's greatly needed - it would be lovely if the whole country got soaked.

 

no it isnt.... i prefer it to be dry, im tired of long wet grass thank you, abit of shorter drier grass will / is making a nice change from previous summers.

anyway, it wont happen, that chart has already been dropped. the outlook may not be very dry, but the rain isnt going to be too bad either and falling on to dry hard ground soon evaporates.

[BlueHedgehog074]

Not every member's cup of hot chocolate, and also, this is just pure Cherry-Picking (it's 384 hours out), but I don't think a model could place High Pressure any more spot-on over the UK if it tried.

Unless the GFS 06Z somehow manages to top that, I feel the GFS 00Z wins the chart of the morning award:

[I remember Atlantic 252]

agree with mushymanrob, I want it dry, not wet

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Frosty is great, love his posts, but I think his latest post suggests things looking grim, warm/unsettled at best from minor model GEM

[stainesbloke]

GFS run this morning is very dreary until right at the end when a nice high appears to settle over the UK. Hopefully this run will not occur, what a waste of high summer potential if so.

[Daniel*]

no it isnt.... i prefer it to be dry, im tired of long wet grass thank you, abit of shorter drier grass will / is making a nice change from previous summers.

anyway, it wont happen, that chart has already been dropped. the outlook may not be very dry, but the rain isnt going to be too bad either and falling on to dry hard ground soon evaporates.

I do not like the rain but it is needed nationwide we've not had a proper unsettled spell in months our reservoirs are also under strain in SE, come next year and if the dry weather weather persists, sanctions will be introduced. Grass is all hay like here ideal for a wildfire to ensue, it's not good for the wildlife too.

[Winter Cold]

Its still not a great outlook really is it for high summer. Always the threat of rain or showers around. Uppers are nothing special at any point on any run so average rules the day. I agree that average in July isnt tooooo bad anyway so i guess its just a case of make the best of it. if we get days like today thrown in then thats good.

 

And yes even our beloved Frosty has had to resort to the GEM for the last few days and when even he cant find anything good in the main models then you know weve had it

[mushymanrob]

I do not like the rain but it is needed nationwide we've not had a proper unsettled spell in months our reservoirs are also under strain in SE, come next year and if the dry weather weather persists, sanctions will be introduced. Grass is all hay like here ideal for a wildfire to ensue, it's not good for the wildlife too.

image.jpg

 

i dont care if it pees it down all summer down your way matey! lol, i just dont want loads of rain here and by the looks of it, its looking average at worst.