Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Spring/Summer 2015.

[mushymanrob]

Most people don't care about that though - and most of us will be very happy with the prospect of a hot, sunny August, even if you're more concerned about your scented flowers blooming.

 

And statistically the 1st week of August is the warmest of time of the year so the hottest weather in early August is pretty much par the course..?

Then most of you are missing out on the full banquet and are settling for a nasty maccy d's..

Summer proper is an assult on all the senses, its a season that stimulates everything not just the pleasantries of being warm.

[Supacell]

Looks like this vile cool pattern is going to infect much of northern and Western Europe away from Spain and Italy just in time for my trip away next week towards Germany and Holland and Slovenia.

 

Just got back from Slovenia earlier in the month, a beautiful country. If you like scenery head for Lake Bled. 

 

It also records one of the highest frequency of thunderstorms of any country in Europe with on average over 25% of the days in summer seeing a thunderstorm. I went for 4 days and saw 2 thunderstorms

[stainesbloke]

Lucky I'm off to sorrento then on Friday.

Hehe, definitely. I'm off to New York Fri-Thu so should miss the worst of the vileness here and enjoy some proper summer there! Can't wait.

[conor123]

Wish flights hadn't been such a rip off for my days off, all flights to Europe like £300!!!!!! revolting weather today despite a 'sunny spells 19c' forecast it's overcast and tomorrow worst chart of the autu...summer so far.

I know Summer ends here around 20th July every year and returns 4/5th September for a month but could of at least had a Summer this year first!!! this has been the most 'weatherless' year I can remember, no winter, no Spring, and now no Summer either, just and endless feed of stratocumulus and nagging 20mph breeze.

[stainesbloke]

Wouldn't want to be in Benelux, N Germany or S Scandinavia this weekend. If GFS/UKMO have it right then some seriously strong winds gusting over 75mph affecting these areas! East Anglia might get sideswiped too, just dreadful for January, let alone July.

[Andy Bown]

Well, my Cornwall holiday will get off to a fine start on Saturday and be grim on Sunday then likely showery Monday/Tuesday.

 

However come this day next week will we be getting battered by a deep LOW with rain and gales on the South Cornish coast (GFS) or under rising pressure enjoying a pleasant summer day (ECM).

 

Truly and honestly how can 2 models predicting weather a week in advance be so vastly different?

 

Would settle for a middle ground slack LOW !

[knocker]

I don't know about two models how about successive 00 and 06 runs of the GFS  for 18z Weds.!

Edited July 23, 2015 by knocker

[Summer Sun]

That deep low on the 00z has gone on the 06z

 

 

Big change in the space of 6 hours or so

[Winter Cold]

It just shows you how bad GFS is at long range really. Add to that what Tamara has said about ignoring the GEFS for now, the run is part of that whole picture so when its swinging like this its best to stop looking.

 

Theres no way such a strong new signal comes accross in the last 6 hours to make it change tune that much. Its just making it up as it goes along atm

[cheeky_monkey]

It just shows you how bad GFS is at long range really. Add to that what Tamara has said about ignoring the GEFS for now, the run is part of that whole picture so when its swinging like this its best to stop looking.

 

Theres no way such a strong new signal comes accross in the last 6 hours to make it change tune that much. Its just making it up as it goes along atm

Computer says no..they don't make things up..unlike some on here

[johnholmes]

It just shows you how bad GFS is at long range really. Add to that what Tamara has said about ignoring the GEFS for now, the run is part of that whole picture so when its swinging like this its best to stop looking.

 

Theres no way such a strong new signal comes accross in the last 6 hours to make it change tune that much. Its just making it up as it goes along atm

computers do not make things up as they go along as you suggest. They produce data based on the original data using the algorithms for that model. Obviously these are different with different models. I have always said that the 6 hourly output from GFS or indeed any other model at beyond about 168h is usually wrong. Look at the data given most morning in the update from Gibby. All 3 models are pretty good out to about 5 days then the two left, EC and GFS both tail off rapidly. Using the 'averages, in my case the anomaly charts will give a far better idea of the overall upper pattern for time scales beyond 144-168 and certainly by 240h. Trying to put detail on anything at that range is a waste of time which is why UK Met give no more than general ideas beyond about 6 days.

[Winter Cold]

Probably just a poor choice of words from me but yes todays example of that change from GFS proves how volatile the models can be. I always look at the ensembles but from what ive read over the past few days thats not going to offer true guidance either for a while. The GEFS have shown a little uptick in fortunes for August with mean rises in temperatures and pressure for example but we'll just have to wait and see.

 

Its interesting reading the anomaly chart posts from John and mushy for example, always good to have something to compare too. They do seem more accurate than the ops at longer ranges and seem to enjoy a high success rate.

[Nouska]

Probably just a poor choice of words from me but yes todays example of that change from GFS proves how volatile the models can be. I always look at the ensembles but from what ive read over the past few days thats not going to offer true guidance either for a while. The GEFS have shown a little uptick in fortunes for August with mean rises in temperatures and pressure for example but we'll just have to wait and see.

 

Its interesting reading the anomaly chart posts from John and mushy for example, always good to have something to compare too. They do seem more accurate than the ops at longer ranges and seem to enjoy a high success rate.

 

I had hoped you were just being tongue in cheek....

 

It doesn't prove how volatile the models can be, it proves how volatile the weather can be with just tiny twitches at the starting gate.

Edited July 23, 2015 by Nouska

[Winter Cold]

I had hoped you were just being tongue in cheek....

 

It doesn't prove how volatile the models can be, it proves how volatile the weather can be with just tiny twitches at the starting gate.

 

Quite a lot of my posts do try and keep things light hearted, im sure you can imagine how I might have said 'its making it up'

 

Maybe I have underestimated how tiny a change at the start can snowball to a week out but my main point from my original post was that can the atmosphere change that much at the start point within just 6 hours since the data sources were checked to enable that new result?

[Nouska]

Quite a lot of my posts do try and keep things light hearted, im sure you can imagine how I might have said 'its making it up'

 

Maybe I have underestimated how tiny a change at the start can snowball to a week out but my main point from my original post was that can the atmosphere change that much at the start point within just 6 hours since the data sources were checked to enable that new result?

 

The sampling is never precise as it does not cover a fine enough mesh - hence the ensembles to look at variables.

 

I'm following the newly available French model as it has a very good reputation. Here's a perfect example of how the initiation detail can change rapidly due to the mesh of the model. Both these runs are very high resolution by comparison to the ECM and GFS but AROME is run from much higher detail at start.

 

I've picked tomorrow rush hour for the SE - remember, local time is actually French time.

 

AROME     ARPEGE 

[doctor32]

I know this is way off topic but could do with some kind info on the met office open days, i am due to attend one this saturday but heard some poor feedback on them and not sure if it is worth the long drive down if you dont see much or leave dissapointed... I am very keen in all things weather so kinda want to go. Thanks

[mushymanrob]

What a bloody crap day, its only saving grace is that its not been wet.! Its like november light wise, as dull as late november not late july... And it supposed to have been sunny.. Grrr

[Milhouse]

And its been cool air overhead as well, which has translated into zero sunshine. Ive had more sunshine here from humid southwesterlies before.

[Winter Cold]

Its been too cool to sit out hasnt it, very dissapointing. Weekend looks poor aswell and into next week. GFS even shows another low coming in at the end of the run so pressure rise might not be dominant into early August.....we await more runs as ever

[mushymanrob]

Lord.. The ecm is bloody awful.

Just like last nov/early december when the building blocks were in place, and a pattern change to something really cold was vaunted... The same things happening now... It was late july when high pressure and its attendant warmth would kick in, then early August , now theres no sign of this even in early august.

Its not happening folks.

[Mokidugway]

Lord.. The ecm is bloody awful.

Just like last nov/early december when the building blocks were in place, and a pattern change to something really cold was vaunted... The same things happening now... It was late july when high pressure and its attendant warmth would kick in, then early August , now theres no sign of this even in early august.

Its not happening folks.

ive been telling people here they won't get summer ,they didn't believe me ,now it's all over it is now ..

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I think we need not panic too much however tomorrow looks unusual for July to say the least with that southerly tracking LP, then a more widespread soaking on Sunday.  I'll plump for drying out and slowly getting less cool and a N/S divide gripping us during first 2+ weeks of Aug.

 

Got to say tomorrow for the south is a shocker for July

 

 

BFTP

[Mokidugway]

And high pressure and warmth is shunted back again ,January perhaps ....

[I remember Atlantic 252]

And high pressure and warmth is shunted back again ,January perhaps ....

 

at least your location is normally dry, even if chilly, this area shocker for rain

Edited July 23, 2015 by Ilovethesnow

[Mokidugway]

at least your location is normally dry, even if chilly, this area shocker for rain

it does have partly sunny here for tomorrow funnily enough !!.