Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Spring/Summer 2015.

[mushymanrob]

indeed ,September sun is no consolation for the high days of July ..

 

exactly!

the outlook this morning is dire.... it looks like august is slipping into a very wet (just for a change    ) spell....

how ironic that when glacier point returns to make a predictive post..... hes wrong!

lets face it, theres just about 0 chance of "high pressure domination in nw europe" in early august, this highlights why i (and i suspect others) dont bother trying to fathom the complicated teleconnections... if someone as knowlegable glacier point can get it wrong... whats the chances of an idiot like me understanding them

[IanR]

I think people were spoilt in the 90's and 00's with the likes of 1990, 1994, 1995, 1997, 2003 and 2006 all within 16 years (historically they should be more like one a decade). Summers like 09,10 and 14 (and this one so far) (July 09 was a bit too wet actually) are actually more or less the historic norm.

the historic norm ? , ah well the climate not really changing then !  back to the drawing board  gw scientists !  

[Nouska]

exactly!

the outlook this morning is dire.... it looks like august is slipping into a very wet (just for a change    ) spell....

how ironic that when glacier point returns to make a predictive post..... hes wrong!

lets face it, theres just about 0 chance of "high pressure domination in nw europe" in early august, this highlights why i (and i suspect others) dont bother trying to fathom the complicated teleconnections... if someone as knowlegable glacier point can get it wrong... whats the chances of an idiot like me understanding them

 

I don't know to what extent you follow global long range forecasting but your point is a fairly common complaint among the people who do this for a living.

 

There have been many busts in recent years - commonly attributed to the ocean and atmosphere not coupling as expected from the known teleconnection pathways.

 

Now, either the teleconnections, as accepted, are wrong in that the period of study is too short or something else has knocked them out of kilter; I'll go for the latter but discussion of that is for elsewhere.

[mushymanrob]

I don't know to what extent you follow global long range forecasting but your point is a fairly common complaint among the people who do this for a living.

 

There have been many busts in recent years - commonly attributed to the ocean and atmosphere not coupling as expected from the known teleconnection pathways.

 

Now, either the teleconnections, as accepted, are wrong in that the period of study is too short or something else has knocked them out of kilter; I'll go for the latter but discussion of that is for elsewhere.

 

tbh i dont follow the lrf's ... they are pretty inaccurate at times, other times they are more correct, its a far too complicated subject for me to try to comprehend. ive seen gp get a winter prediction spot on over a 3 month period.... ive also seen him get it wrong too. so good luck and respect to those trying to interpret things. ill just wait until it shows in the charts... i can read the charts!

btw, my post wasnt critical of gp... or others, just pointing out the irony that in his sole post for a while looks like being inaccurate which is a pity because he predicted what many here would like to see,.

[Milhouse]

What can change this horrible pattern were stuck in at the moment. It seems like theres a huge area of cool air thats just seeping down into the north Atlantic and affecting us, and looking at past years it seems the cool air is more extensive than it should be at this time of year. The Azores high has been disinterested all summer, and the persistence of cool air from the NW has been such a big feature of this whole year so far, hence how uninteresting it has been, with hardly anything to speak of whatsoever. An incredibly horrible and bland year so far.

[Iceaxecrampon]

Dorset.

 

With this piece of Sh i t winding itself up.

 

 

.....might just've dried out from Keswick this week.

Edited July 25, 2015 by Iceaxecrampon

[Mokidugway]

Dorset.

 

With this piece of Sh i t winding itself up.

 

6hrprecip.png

 

.....might just've dried out from Keswick this week.

lol, I thought they where called low pressure systems !!!!.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

next Sunday looks a write off, 00Z had it washed out, sure it will be washed out

[Mokidugway]

next Sunday looks a write off, 00Z had it washed out, sure it will be washed out

one wet miserable Sunday usually follows another ...

[Bristawl Si]

tbh i dont follow the lrf's ... they are pretty inaccurate at times, other times they are more correct, its a far too complicated subject for me to try to comprehend. ive seen gp get a winter prediction spot on over a 3 month period.... ive also seen him get it wrong too. so good luck and respect to those trying to interpret things. ill just wait until it shows in the charts... i can read the charts!

btw, my post wasnt critical of gp... or others, just pointing out the irony that in his sole post for a while looks like being inaccurate which is a pity because he predicted what many here would like to see,.

Agreed

I could count the number of LRFs that have been correct on one hand over last 10 years, in fact probably on a couple of fingers. Whether it be a Summer or Winter LRF.

JH's posts re the anomaly charts have proved correct most times i've popped in here over the years.

[Dancerwithwings]

This chart pretty much sums up 95% of summer 2015 so far - lovely oranges and reds all around us, yet there's a big lump of dirty Arctic snot right on top of the UK.

 

3107.png

Be the opposite in 4 months   

[mushymanrob]

JH's posts re the anomaly charts have proved correct most times i've popped in here over the years.

They are, hence i champion using them.

[Methuselah]

Agreed

I could count the number of LRFs that have been correct on one hand over last 10 years, in fact probably on a couple of fingers. Whether it be a Summer or Winter LRF.

JH's posts re the anomaly charts have proved correct most times i've popped in here over the years.

Absolutely agree, BB.

[stainesbloke]

Agreed

I could count the number of LRFs that have been correct on one hand over last 10 years, in fact probably on a couple of fingers. Whether it be a Summer or Winter LRF.

JH's posts re the anomaly charts have proved correct most times i've popped in here over the years.

Yes have to agree there.

[Iceaxecrampon]

Tomorrow looks pretty grim so , hey, try next Sunday.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

 

.....I will - this Sunday camping in Keswick.....next Sunday a most probable wet beach in Dorset

[knocker]

.....I will - this Sunday camping in Keswick.....next Sunday a most probable wet beach in Dorset

 

I shouldn't worry about next Sunday. The GFS will have changed it's mind several times by then.

[Dancerwithwings]

No it won't.

Just a joke on the way things have panned out this Summer.....https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82655-model-banter-moans-and-ramps-springsummer-2015/page-64#entry3238848

in other words when Winter is on top of us and us coldies are looking for a "big lump of dirty Arctic snot right on top of the UK".

it won't happen but by your choice of words.......(ABOVE) You seem very certain???

[I remember Atlantic 252]

ECM seems to make less if nothing of Wednesday's washout, feel GFS will be correct here, tends to do better with Atlantic lows, feel as though this location is due a washout, been lucky lately, Tuesday could be the day though, then Wednesday then Sunday

[mushymanrob]

Jeez.. Can the models get any bloody worse?

Come back 07/12 at least it would be warmer...

[davehsug]

It's relentless. August really has become the first month of autumn these days, except it's taken the 2nd half of July with it this year. I don't mind some rain, but it's just so cool all the time. You can't enjoy an evening or night when you have to wrap up. Then to top it all, back comes that bluddy North West wind!

Edited July 25, 2015 by davehsug

[Mokidugway]

The GFS 18z is still hinting at a bit of a plume for the start of August. It wouldn't be anything special, but I guess we sort of have to take what we can get, really:

 

850Temp.png viewimage.pbx.png

that plume would be wash and go Scott ..

[Don]

It's relentless. August really has become the first month of autumn these days, except it's taken the 2nd half of July with it this year. I don't mind some rain, but it's just so cool all the time. You can't enjoy an evening or night when you have to wrap up. Then to top it all, back comes that bluddy North West wind!

 

You wait, Summer will be back with a vengeance come September!

Edited July 25, 2015 by Don

[Kent Blizzard]

.....I will - this Sunday camping in Keswick.....next Sunday a most probable wet beach in Dorset

You should be ok for next Sunday :-D Today (Sunday) going to be utter pants like most the other Sundays this summer so far!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I still expect next Sunday to be a soaker, 00Z on GFS makes less of the plume, and brings the muck much closer to us, GFS seems to underestimate low pressure in FI

[Bolt from the Blue]

The second half of next week doesn't look too bad in the south on this mornings GFS, we should have temperatures around 20C with light winds.