Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Spring/Summer 2015.

[Costa Del Fal]

I thought the jet stream was supposed to retreat to he north in summer and sit around Iceland. What a load of bull in this awful climate of ours.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

My word. If this channel low was happening in winter, then this site would be in meltdown. Certainly looks to be some alarming rainfall rates.

[Costa Del Fal]

Indeed but you can guarantee come winter, the jet stream will go north with low pressure anchored to Iceland whilst want slither lies bathe the UK.

[stainesbloke]

Indeed but you can guarantee come winter, the jet stream will go north with low pressure anchored to Iceland whilst want slither lies bathe the UK.

Yes, that's the usual situation though am not so sure about this coming winter. Have a feeling it will be a cold one.

[mushymanrob]

The models are still hinting at a warm-up for early August though. At the very least, the weather will become more settled, so we should see more in the way of sunshine. The GFS 06z has a Spanish plume as we go into the start of the month.

 

If that fails then I just hope that this year pulls a 2011 as we go into autumn. September and October can be lovely months for warmth when we get the correct set-ups. Even the November of that year was lovely as well!

 

sorry old chap, i dont agree. if anything the models (especially the gfs) has dropped sustained high pressure dominance that it kept championing in fi , currently both the gfs and ecm suggest unsettled with only transitory spells of drier warmer weather.

whilst both models do show a brief plume, the ecm leads towards, and the gfs firmly (as firmly as it can predict fi) predicts a mobile unsettled picture.

a month ago i didnt believe we were in for a 'wet possibly very wet' spell, and so far we havnt had one, but the outlook seems to be sliding away from a pressure build/settling down despite what some very knowleagable forecasters could be on the cards. taking note of what john posted in the md thread, and as we approach yet another august (which has been a notoriously poor month in recent years) i dont think the outlook is very promising and this summer is slipping away into memories of underperformance and lack of a sustained above average spell.

if that 'wet possibly very wet' prediction was made today, id think there was a very good chance of that becoming reality.

[IanR]

What the hell has gone wrong with our summers, apart from july 2013 and 2014  the last several years have been pants really , compared to a decade or two ago,

 

The school holidays when i was younger seemed to consist of playing in the melted tar due to the warmth at the bottom of telegraph poles lol , if this is the ''climate change'' they predicted they got it the wrong way round ,  regular heatwaves my a****

Edited July 24, 2015 by IanR

[weatherguru14]

I think its more lilkely has a child growing up we remember the good summers.. We forget the wash out and cold ones.You just not guaranteed summer weather in the uk. We hope for it. and often get settled spells. but pro-longed  summer weather is not the norm. as you can tell by the best summers of the last 20 years. Being 1995/2003/2005/2006/2013.. very few and far between.

[mushymanrob]

I think its more lilkely has a child growing up we remember the good summers.. We forget the wash out and cold ones.You just not guaranteed summer weather in the uk. We hope for it. and often get settled spells. but pro-longed  summer weather is not the norm. as you can tell by the best summers of the last 20 years. Being 1995/2003/2005/2006/2013.. very few and far between.

 

disagree about summer 13.... and 05... i cant remember a good spell in 05, and 13 only had one decent spell. true it would be most welcome now but it doesnt rank alongside 75, 76, 83, 84, 89, 90, 95, 03, 06, and a few more

[mushymanrob]

well the ray of hope that the GFS anomaly chart showed yesterday has all but disappeared this morning. This puts us back at, unless the NOAA 6-10 decides to up the odds this evening, to at least 15 days from now for no marked increase in ridging let alone any long term heat.

I think that the best that may occur 2 weeks or so down the line is that some kind of upper ridge in the Atlantic may develop to give drier conditions all round for the UK but with some temporary blips as weather systems run around its northern flank. Thus the south will fare best with more days of dry weather and a higher level of temperature anomaly at the surface than further north. To me there is little if any indication of an early even mid August heat wave that some seem to be suggesting.

anomaly link for EC-GFS this morning

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

 

i wonder if those 'likes' are from the mr miserable camp who enjoy anything but warmth and sun?

Edited July 24, 2015 by mushymanrob

[weatherguru14]

Summer 2013 was excellent it went down as the sunniest and warmest since 2006.. Well I cant remember 1976 (wasn't born until 1978  ). 2005 was half decent from what I recall...2003 and 2006 please come back .

mentioning 2013. It was opposite to what its been of late in the UK. for  first 2 weeks of June it was  great in the western part of the uk. and the east and south east had low cloud and winds  from the north sea.. July was amazing. August wasn't outstanding but at least we got around average with regards temps..

[minus 9]

I wonder what models the met are using then,as there outlook doesn't seem as bad as some are making out on here especially for the south.no heatwave but average is still nice in august.

[IanR]

I think its more lilkely has a child growing up we remember the good summers.. We forget the wash out and cold ones.You just not guaranteed summer weather in the uk. We hope for it. and often get settled spells. but pro-longed  summer weather is not the norm. as you can tell by the best summers of the last 20 years. Being 1995/2003/2005/2006/2013.. very few and far between.

  Disagree,  I dont ever remember getting day after day of 16c at the height of summer in the seventies and eighties on regular basis like we do now, and especially the nineties ,  but  we did get what I would call 'Meh' spells like we are having now , but the temps were more like 18c and 19c , which we would have  considered poor back  then  

[Polar Maritime]

Just a reminder that there is a Summer thread open, Please keep discussion loosely based around the Models in here.

Thanks, PM.

[Evening thunder]

2013 and 2014 were good overall here, a very good July in 2013 and a good August (mean maxima 1C above average). June a bit cool though not too bad. In 2014 June and July were good only August a little poor (though not as bad as other parts of the country).

 

This summer is probably around average here, though dry until now.

 

As for temps in previous summers, the 60's had 6 summers in a row that had a lower mean maxima than any in recent times averaged over the UK, which you can see by selecting the relevant criteria here: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/actualmonthly 

which suggests recent summers haven't been as bad as made out when put in context.  Sunshine doesn't look out of place compared to what has happened before either, only rainfall perhaps a bit anomalous.

 

Edit: Oops did not see PM's post before posting this.

Edited July 24, 2015 by Evening thunder

[mushymanrob]

Summer 13 though was patchy, it was good in the west and south but here we often got that north sea crap which stopped it here being as good as other years cited..

And the 12z doesnt offer any hope, so this summer wont a a great one.

[mushymanrob]

Okay the inflexibility is surprising...for gardeners rain heavy Fantastic times

Are you on a wind up? Heavy rain isnt fantastic times for gardeners thank you.

[Methuselah]

Are you on a wind up? Heavy rain isnt fantastic times for gardeners thank you.

It is when it's as dry as it is, here!

[summer blizzard]

What the hell has gone wrong with our summers, apart from july 2013 and 2014  the last several years have been pants really , compared to a decade or two ago,

 

The school holidays when i was younger seemed to consist of playing in the melted tar due to the warmth at the bottom of telegraph poles lol , if this is the ''climate change'' they predicted they got it the wrong way round ,  regular heatwaves my a****

 

I think people were spoilt in the 90's and 00's with the likes of 1990, 1994, 1995, 1997, 2003 and 2006 all within 16 years (historically they should be more like one a decade). Summers like 09,10 and 14 (and this one so far) (July 09 was a bit too wet actually) are actually more or less the historic norm.

[DAVID SNOW]

It is when it's as dry as it is, here!

 

Indeed Pete! Some very welcome rain for the parched gardens of the south.  And a bit more on Sunday   A long way off, but maybe the models will (in time) start to show a return to summer in September..

[mushymanrob]

We dont all live in the sarf where you get better weather then the rest of us..

[damianslaw]

In rather pessimistic mode this evening, sometimes I get a hunch about the general way things are going and this evening I'm afraid its a woeful one for any warm sustained settled conditions. There is a fair stalemate pattern taking shape, by this stage in the summer the northern hemisphere is firmly in its base summer state and it takes some shifting to alter the general pattern, just like late January when the winter pattern is often firmly entrenched.

 

With this in mind, I wouldn't be surprised to see a pattern change just in time for the end of the school holidays and we welcome September with the usual high pressure fest, no surprise at all - but all far far too late.

[Mokidugway]

In rather pessimistic mode this evening, sometimes I get a hunch about the general way things are going and this evening I'm afraid its a woeful one for any warm sustained settled conditions. There is a fair stalemate pattern taking shape, by this stage in the summer the northern hemisphere is firmly in its base summer state and it takes some shifting to alter the general pattern, just like late January when the winter pattern is often firmly entrenched.

 

With this in mind, I wouldn't be surprised to see a pattern change just in time for the end of the school holidays and we welcome September with the usual high pressure fest, no surprise at all - but all far far too late.

indeed ,September sun is no consolation for the high days of July ..

[MP-R]

In rather pessimistic mode this evening, sometimes I get a hunch about the general way things are going and this evening I'm afraid its a woeful one for any warm sustained settled conditions. There is a fair stalemate pattern taking shape, by this stage in the summer the northern hemisphere is firmly in its base summer state and it takes some shifting to alter the general pattern, just like late January when the winter pattern is often firmly entrenched.

 

With this in mind, I wouldn't be surprised to see a pattern change just in time for the end of the school holidays and we welcome September with the usual high pressure fest, no surprise at all - but all far far too late.

 

As true as that is some times, patterns aren't necessarily fixed to months. June 2009 gave way to a very unsettled July 2009 only to become better again in the August, for example. Same goes for 2007 - May-June were very unsettled but August and September much less so.

[knocker]

Tomorrow looks pretty grim so , hey, try next Sunday.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Edited July 25, 2015 by knocker

[stupotlee]

In rather pessimistic mode this evening, sometimes I get a hunch about the general way things are going and this evening I'm afraid its a woeful one for any warm sustained settled conditions. There is a fair stalemate pattern taking shape, by this stage in the summer the northern hemisphere is firmly in its base summer state and it takes some shifting to alter the general pattern, just like late January when the winter pattern is often firmly entrenched.

 

With this in mind, I wouldn't be surprised to see a pattern change just in time for the end of the school holidays and we welcome September with the usual high pressure fest, no surprise at all - but all far far too late.

 

I'll take that - but as I don't have kids, I'm probably on my own

 

Also, on my way to the Isle of Wight on BH weekend for 2 weeks, so if that's the case so be it

 

I did say I'd booked the weather in advance earlier in the thread :)