Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Spring/Summer 2015.

[Bradowl]

Looking very mixed over this weekend and through next week. 

 

Bit of warmth at times more so in south east  but also wet at times almost anywhere. 

[cheese]

Boo GFS, load of rubbish. Rains on nearly every day next week with a succession of rain bands. GFS shows 60mm of rain falling by Thursday night - I mean, we don't even get 60mm in any month on average, so to get that much, within the first 16 days, of July of all months, would be quite appalling.

 

Hope the outlook changes soon.

[mushymanrob]

Boo GFS, load of rubbish. Rains on nearly every day next week with a succession of rain bands. GFS shows 60mm of rain falling by Thursday night - I mean, we don't even get 60mm in any month on average, so to get that much, within the first 16 days, of July of all months, would be quite appalling.

 

Hope the outlook changes soon.

 

i dont buy that mate... its clearly overcooked, i reckon we will get nuisance rain, nothing heavy until later in the week with that possible thundery low. plenty of sunny periods. we are still well below average rainfall-wise and if it wasnt for the thunderstorms the other friday night we would be getting some very dry ground conditions.

[conor123]

This year must go down as the worst year of all time for weekend weather here if it carries on, was away on the two best Saturday's of the year (last 2 weeks) and every Sunday's been sub par, even today which was forecast 22c and sunny spells once the front cleared is grey and windy.

Edited July 12, 2015 by conor123

[ribster]

Good grief, is it really mid July out there?

[Dancerwithwings]

This year must go down as the worst year of all time for weekend weather here if it carries on, was away on the two best Saturday's of the year (last 2 weeks) and every Sunday's been sub par, even today which was forecast 22c and sunny spells once the front cleared is grey and windy.

And that is what exactly has happened..............22c and sunny spells here

 

EDIT; 23.2C

Edited July 12, 2015 by Dancerwithwings

[mushymanrob]

Yep, a smashing summers day once the early cloud had gone. The sun and breeze soon dried up the dampness from the early rain.

[mushymanrob]

This July is reminding me of 1997 so far. A warm month, but changeable and like 1997 we had unsettled bits in between warmer bits. Like 1997 we had an intense nino, so history is more or less repeating itself.

 

its reminding me of the year before... 96... a lot of dry weather but intervals of wetter weather keeping the grass green but not thick and long, dry ground underneath not soggy soft ground like 07/08/12.

 

[Richard2901]

This July is reminding me of 2012. An unmitigated horror show. Grey depressing cloud day in day out. No sunny days just grey skies and drizzle/rain likely every day this revolting week. Temperatures well below average again.

 

One of the worst ever July's in one of the worst ever summer's. It seems it could even end up the dullest month of the year so far. Just a sick joke and another summer month so awful it begs the question "What the hell is happening to our weather?"

 

Just absolutely ridiculous. It now no longer seems to matter what direction the weather is coming from there is stubborn cloud that just won't clear 

 

Suffice to say that over the past decade summer has been relegated from my most favourite season to my most detested. It is hard to imagine there being another populated place on earth where the summers are as grim and disgusting as the hell we have to endure here since 2007

[Costa Del Fal]

This July is reminding me of 2012. An unmitigated horror show. Grey depressing cloud day in day out. No sunny days just grey skies and drizzle/rain likely every day this revolting week. Temperatures well below average again.

 

One of the worst ever July's in one of the worst ever summer's. It seems it could even end up the dullest month of the year so far. Just a sick joke and another summer month so awful it begs the question "What the hell is happening to our weather?"

 

Just absolutely ridiculous. It now no longer seems to matter what direction the weather is coming from there is stubborn cloud that just won't clear 

 

Suffice to say that over the past decade summer has been relegated from my most favourite season to my most detested. It is hard to imagine there being another populated place on earth where the summers are as grim and disgusting as the hell we have to endure here since 2007

Can you not just move? It sounds that bad it can't be doing your health good!

[Carl46Wrexham]

This summer (so far) could be described as neither here nor there...not a horror show, but nothing really that will stick in the memory after it has gone. Unless August does its normal trick of being a wet, cool and generally disappointing summer month or defies expectations and turns out hot and sunny, Summer 2015 will go down as meh!

Edited July 13, 2015 by Carl46Wrexham

[stainesbloke]

This summer (so far) could be described as neither here nor there...not a horror show, but nothing really that will stick in the memory after it has gone. Unless August does its normal trick of being a wet, cool and generally disappointing summer month or defies expectations and turns out hot and sunny, Summer 2015 will go down as meh!

Yes I agree. For southern parts it thankfully hasn't been as bad as some really dire years like 2012. IMHO it hasn't been that good either though. Temps have been summer-like only in the last couple of weeks. There have been decent levels of sun on many days but virtually no rain at all here, despite the nighttime electrical storms last week which gave a 10 minute shower. Many plants and trees are looking very stressed and watering the allotments is a constant task. That bloody wind just will not stop blowing too, even on the hotter days. Keep reading we're due a decent August, that'd be really nice. Being outdoors is a joy when we get some good weather.

Edited July 13, 2015 by stainesbloke

[jy]

The Summer here has been quite good,mainly because as a gardener,with fair skin there hasn't been too much extreme heat to deal with.Most days have been dry,sunny and warm.The only gripe from me is that that we have had so little rain and its also been very windy which has meant lots of watering as I cant trust my customers to do it lol

[Milhouse]

Its intersting to compare the upcoming warmth potential with a brief spell of heat almost 20 years ago to the day during the memorable summer of 1995.

 

 

[Scorcher]

Its intersting to compare the upcoming warmth potential with a brief spell of heat almost 20 years ago to the day during the memorable summer of 1995.

 

 

 

Hmm, I wonder. Scorching August on the way? Fingers crossed!

[Captain Shortwave]

Hmm, I wonder. Scorching August on the way? Fingers crossed!

I would have to admit that with a strong area of high pressure over Europe, you would think that a relaxation of the Atlantic jet would lead to something widespread in terms of hot summer weather. 

that said halfway through summer and we are still waiting, that said the last couple of weeks have been better, well at least down here. As it is I think of continuation of the status quo will be the correct outcome, a west to south westerly flow, occasionally backing to the south/south east for a brief blast of heat before normal service resumes. Decent but not groundbreaking.... yet.

[Milhouse]

Hmm, I wonder. Scorching August on the way? Fingers crossed!

 

1995 also saw 30c achieved on the last day of June in the first real hot spell of the summer, just like this year.

[Summer Sun]

Hmm, I wonder. Scorching August on the way? Fingers crossed!

 

The heat is perfectly placed over Europe just need the jet stream to be our friend and shift north

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I tend to associate Aug as a low pressure dominated cool month, but with jetstream not strong enough to move systems through quickly, unlike Nov to Feb

 

Sep does tend to see a lull in low pressure

[stainesbloke]

Encouraging latest GFS run, looks loads better for this weekend and next week, especially further south in the UK. Of course after that in FI it's a dogs breakfast of vile NW winds and low pressure but I won't worry about that yet!

[MP-R]

I really do hope we get a good August. I'm sick to the back teeth of it being the month that always lets us down, especially the Augusts of 2008, 2011 and 2014 which were especially dire. Those months have actually made me have higher expectations of September now, which tends to be a warm and dry month.

 

August, it's your turn! If the remainder of July sets up the high pressure over the top of us, would you please be kind enough to keep it there this time, rather than letting the Atlantic come charging in like you always do?

 

I do wonder, had Hurricane Bertha not pitched up last August, would the month have turned out a lot better? The month got off to a good start then with the flick of switch turned autumnal with the passing of the storm system. I get the feeling August 2014 could have been the next even better August after a half decent 2012, decent 2013... 

 

Let's see what this year brings. The models kept hinting at more sustained height rises in our neck of the woods for the second half of July but more complications have turned up in the reliable timeframe such as the low at the end of this week which is still not certain yet. BBC still mentioning strong winds for all.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Always remember as a kid, August tending to be the better and most hottest month! Definitely well overdue a cracking August. Some of the best plumes used to happen in that once great month too. 

[mushymanrob]

well im not so optimistic about getting a good august .... the noaa anomaly charts support the ops fi suggestion for a scandi/siberian/russian low, azores high ridging north joining the greenland high.

i see no quick route to a prolonged settled spell in the next two weeks and probably beyond. on the plus side its still not looking overly wet, as was suggested nearly 3 weeks ago by some (but my hunch that we will get a decent settled spell late july/early aug is also heading for the rubbish bin too.... nul points scored by either camp).
 

as someone who desires the sun/heat to co-incide with my summer flowering scented plants (lilies, budlia,jasmine), its now looking highly unlikely ill get my wish this year..... (yes, that is me ready to write off MY summer).

[Buzz]

It's a good thing that our emotions don't rule the weather, it would be a disaster!

[Bradowl]

With Gibby hinting that north westerly winds could push the heat well away to south east next week and only 2 weeks left in July this will take us in to August which is last month of proper summer and can be quiet wet at times, so in a nutshell that could be it for this summer.

 

Roll on winter.