Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Spring/Summer 2015.

[Frosty_wsm]

trouble is fans dont work as all they do is push warm around they dont cool the air...you need air con for that..or take a luke warm shower before bed

Fans work perfectly fine for me, never been without one in the house since the heatwave of 2003, they especially help at night when trying to sleep.

[Sussex Jules]

Bowl of ice cubes in a plastic tub in front of the fans works great at cooling a room down

[I remember Atlantic 252]

wondering if GFS is wrong here, 3rd run in a row to bring in the Atlantic full power, steams in Friday night hopefully with massive storms

 

ukmo though dosent, and expecting ECM to not bring in the Atlantic, hot it is I feel, well into 2nd week of Wimbledon

[mhielte]

wondering if GFS is wrong here, 3rd run in a row to bring in the Atlantic full power, steams in Friday night hopefully with massive storms

 

ukmo though dosent, and expecting ECM to not bring in the Atlantic, hot it is I feel, well into 2nd week of Wimbledon

GFS has backtracked a little from the more progressive 00z and 06z though, bringing heat back on Friday after an unstable a slightly cooler Thursday, before the Atlantic wins fully for the weekend. You're right though, UKMO and also GEM are having none of it. Hopefully the ECm won't either and the GFS will fall into line!

Edited June 27, 2015 by mhielte

[summer blizzard]

wondering if GFS is wrong here, 3rd run in a row to bring in the Atlantic full power, steams in Friday night hopefully with massive storms

 

ukmo though dosent, and expecting ECM to not bring in the Atlantic, hot it is I feel, well into 2nd week of Wimbledon

 

GFS has backtracked a little from the 00z and 06z though, bringing heat back on Friday after an unstable a slightly cooler Thursday, before the Atlantic wins fully for the weekend. You're right though, UKMO and also GEM are having none of it. Hopefully the ECm won't either and the GFS will fall into line!

 

It's hard to see because pressure is low during the plume anyway but i have kept an eye on the precipitation charts for days and things have broadly stayed the same in that we were going to get a thundery front on Friday (which fails to breakdown) and then a second front does the job on Sunday. The Euro still agrees and GEM has come on board. 

 

Only the JMA12z along with the GFS18 and 0z went for an opposing solution. 

[h2005__uk__]

I see NAVGEM is still keen on temps in the mid-30s in the south. Is it known for overcooking things? Or is the GFS known for undercooking things?

Edited June 27, 2015 by h2005uk

[Winter Cold]

I see NAVGEM is still keen on temps in the mid-30s in the south. Is it known for overcooking things? Or is the GFS known for undercooking things?

 

lol, its known for being the NAVGEM and just needs to be switched off. Seriously, many on here would tell you to not even bother looking at it!

[mushymanrob]

Personally i dont care whether we get record breaking temps or not, as long as its over 25c thatll do for me!

[Weather-history]

I look at the charts and if you looking for a good period of hot dry sunny weather, the classic summer weather, to me, the charts are actually not that brilliant in that respect.

What I mean is high pressure sat over the UK with at least a week of continuous sunny warm if not hot dry weather. Like mid July 2005. The charts are not showing that as such, the FAX charts have fronts in the west on Wednesday and they are across the country on Thursday. The GFS rainfall ensembles for Manchester are actually quite wet looking for early July.

It's going to very warm/hot but to me it's still not quite a settled spell.

[mushymanrob]

I look at the charts and if you looking for a good period of hot dry sunny weather, the classic summer weather, to me, the charts are actually not that brilliant in that respect.

What I mean is high pressure sat over the UK with at least a week of continuous sunny warm if not hot dry weather. Like mid July 2005. The charts are not showing that as such, the FAX charts have fronts in the west on Wednesday and they are across the country on Thursday. The GFS rainfall ensembles for Manchester are actually quite wet looking for early July.

It's going to very warm/hot but to me it's still not quite a settled spell.

 

completely agree with this... the ever reliable anomaly charts keep the uk in a southwesterly upper flow into mid july, so whilst itll be warm, very warm or even briefly hot, its looking a lot wetter then we have enjoyed over the last several months...

ive banged on about not losing work through drought - browning off the grass, since 06, nine years ago, this is the longest period in my 42 years of working that there hasnt been a period of drough stressed grass here in derby. so as far as im concerned, we/i am long overdue for a long dry period in summer (doesnt mean hot though). thought this summer might be it... but the signs are going against it now.

the question is.... will we get a lengthy anticyclonic sunny spell w-h highlights above? of course theres plenty of time for one to evolve and late july has to be the favourite time for one to evolve. but ill be looking very closely at the noaa anomaly charts over the coming weeks as i believe any possibility of one will manifest itself there first.

but its a warm and unsettled outlook, as opposed to a cool unsettled some have suggested. for now ill enjoy the heat.

[summer blizzard]

I look at the charts and if you looking for a good period of hot dry sunny weather, the classic summer weather, to me, the charts are actually not that brilliant in that respect.

What I mean is high pressure sat over the UK with at least a week of continuous sunny warm if not hot dry weather. Like mid July 2005. The charts are not showing that as such, the FAX charts have fronts in the west on Wednesday and they are across the country on Thursday. The GFS rainfall ensembles for Manchester are actually quite wet looking for early July.

It's going to very warm/hot but to me it's still not quite a settled spell.

 

Agreed. Pressure is too low and humidity too high while we'll melt at night. 

 

completely agree with this... the ever reliable anomaly charts keep the uk in a southwesterly upper flow into mid july, so whilst itll be warm, very warm or even briefly hot, its looking a lot wetter then we have enjoyed over the last several months...

ive banged on about not losing work through drought - browning off the grass, since 06, nine years ago, this is the longest period in my 42 years of working that there hasnt been a period of drough stressed grass here in derby. so as far as im concerned, we/i am long overdue for a long dry period in summer (doesnt mean hot though). thought this summer might be it... but the signs are going against it now.

the question is.... will we get a lengthy anticyclonic sunny spell w-h highlights above? of course theres plenty of time for one to evolve and late july has to be the favourite time for one to evolve. but ill be looking very closely at the noaa anomaly charts over the coming weeks as i believe any possibility of one will manifest itself there first.

but its a warm and unsettled outlook, as opposed to a cool unsettled some have suggested. for now ill enjoy the heat.

 

I don't know how cold would effect it but between Feb 1st and July 31st 2013 we had 3 separate periods of 20 days without rainfall here. I'd have thought that may have caused drought stress.

[mushymanrob]

 

I don't know how cold would effect it but between Feb 1st and July 31st 2013 we had 3 separate periods of 20 days without rainfall here. I'd have thought that may have caused drought stress.

 

depends upon the soil, light soils drain quickly and the grass browns off quicker then on loamy or clay soils.

... and its having grass browned off so theres no greenery to grow is what im on about. yes, dry periods do make the grass slow down, but 0 lawns here have been browned off since 2006, even then not many, 2003 was the last big occassion.

[mushymanrob]

I DONT WANT THUNDERSTORMS!

unless they are the real thing, a multi-cell, supercell, shelf cloud, frequent violent thunder and lightning . like in winter anything less then a real heavy driving blizzard, i am not interested.

nothing worse then an area of dull, muggy, thundery rain , delivering silly rainfall totals but without the true spectacle of a real storm.

so... THOR.... or god.... please... either a proper humdinger of a storm, or bugger all please!

[Scorcher]

What I mean is high pressure sat over the UK with at least a week of continuous sunny warm if not hot dry weather. Like mid July 2005. The charts are not showing that as such, the FAX charts have fronts in the west on Wednesday and they are across the country on Thursday. The GFS rainfall ensembles for Manchester are actually quite wet looking for early July.

 

 

July 2013 was like that...but we didn't really have the very high 850 hPa temps that year, despite a lot of excellent dry, sunny weather which often just sneaked into the hot category.

 

We haven't had a spell like this upcoming one for years. I imagine it could have more similarities to the spell of early August 2004, although perhaps slightly longer. The BBC are certainly predicted very high humidity levels and high night time minima for this coming week. Manchester Airport reached 29.3C in that spell (on the 8th), this chart doesn't look as impressive to me as the charts for Wednesday this week, however:

 

 

Edited June 28, 2015 by Scorcher

[mhielte]

I DONT WANT THUNDERSTORMS!

unless they are the real thing, a multi-cell, supercell, shelf cloud, frequent violent thunder and lightning . like in winter anything less then a real heavy driving blizzard, i am not interested.

nothing worse then an area of dull, muggy, thundery rain , delivering silly rainfall totals but without the true spectacle of a real storm.

so... THOR.... or god.... please... either a proper humdinger of a storm, or bugger all please!

No! Don't use that word! 

[cheese]

Thunderstorms will do me just fine. Been ages since the last one. Supercells are a rare beast though in the UK.

[Methuselah]

No! Don't use that word! 

But the latest GFS will be a................................................humdinger!

[summer blizzard]

July 2013 was like that...but we didn't really have the very high 850 hPa temps that year, despite a lot of excellent dry, sunny weather which often just sneaked into the hot category.

 

We haven't had a spell like this upcoming one for years. I imagine it could have more similarities to the spell of early August 2004, although perhaps slightly longer. The BBC are certainly predicted very high humidity levels and high night time minima for this coming week. Manchester Airport reached 29.3C in that spell (on the 8th), this chart doesn't look as impressive to me as the charts for Wednesday this week, however:

 

 

 

What a horrid month. It was the most unbearable month i can recall, constantly high humidity and warm nights and very wet. 

[Guest]

Looks like after all we may only get one day of 30c looking at the this mornings GFS which will im effect make this uneventful summer warm spell (although very nice, and any warmth is greatly accepted) the later part of this week looks as though there could be a lot of cloud from encroaching fronts pushing in from the west and left overs from decaying storms inhibiting temp rises. So while warm an un-noteworthy spell of summer weather really. It's highly likely down here in last years run on five days with maxes higher than 28c won't be beaten and this definitely won't beat July 13 for max temos or longevity of heat.

[Weather-history]

What a horrid month. It was the most unbearable month i can recall, constantly high humidity and warm nights and very wet.

.........and thundery

[Mark Parsons]

Looks like after all we may only get one day of 30c looking at the this mornings GFS which will im effect make this uneventful summer warm spell (although very nice, and any warmth is greatly accepted) the later part of this week looks as though there could be a lot of cloud from encroaching fronts pushing in from the west and left overs from decaying storms inhibiting temp rises. So while warm an un-noteworthy spell of summer weather really. It's highly likely down here in last years run on five days with maxes higher than 28c won't be beaten and this definitely won't beat July 13 for max temos or longevity of heat.

There is more times often than not a downgrade in temps be it hot maxima or cold minima, so it is not surprising we are now probably not going to hit any records, however to say this nice spell of summer weather will be un-noteworthy is a bit under estimated as some parts of the country could still reach highs not achieved since 06!

Edited June 29, 2015 by Mark Parsons

[mushymanrob]

Looks like after all we may only get one day of 30c looking at the this mornings GFS which will im effect make this uneventful summer warm spell (although very nice, and any warmth is greatly accepted) the later part of this week looks as though there could be a lot of cloud from encroaching fronts pushing in from the west and left overs from decaying storms inhibiting temp rises. So while warm an un-noteworthy spell of summer weather really. It's highly likely down here in last years run on five days with maxes higher than 28c won't be beaten and this definitely won't beat July 13 for max temos or longevity of heat.

 

itll beat july 13 for heat here... ive not seen 30c since 06. only had 28c. it wont last as long as 13, true, but that wasnt that great at times as locally we had a weekend of grey overcast cold skies under a northeasterly .

[h2005__uk__]

Maybe a (very) slight downgrade on temperatures on the 00z GFS.... but GFS forecast maxes of around 28C in the south-east for 18 July 2014, when many places ended up reaching 30 - 32C. So maybe the GFS is again undercooking this week slightly?

[knocker]

Some rules of thumb have just been published to facilitate viewers who wish to make a quick appraisal of the state of play of the models first thing without spending too much time on it.

 

No posts before 0800                        diabolical

three posts before 07.30                   dissapointing

eight posts before 0700                     Firming up on the building blocks

Five hundred posts before 06.30       Imminent blizzard or heatwave.

[Methuselah]

Some rules of thumb have just been published to facilitate viewers who wish to make a quick appraisal of the state of play of the models first thing without spending too much time on it.

 

No posts before 0800                        diabolical

three posts before 07.30                   dissapointing

eight posts before 0700                     Firming up on the building blocks

Five hundred posts before 06.30       Imminent blizzard or heatwave.

You too,  eh?