Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Spring/Summer 2015.

[DR(S)NO]

The Ecm 00z shows the weather becoming warmer and more humid across the s/se of the UK during the second half of this week with the best of the weather across the southeast corner bar the odd shower and temps gradually rising into the mid / upper 20's celsius for fri/sat/sun whereas further north and west become more unsettled and breezier with rain and showers but still with some sunshine at times and reasonable temperatures in a swly/sly airflow. Further ahead becoming less warm / fresher for a time from the west but by T+240 hours we are poised (or at least the south is) for a surge of very warm / hot continental conditions to spread northwards beyond day 10 with a trough becoming slow moving to the west of the UK.

An all too familiar story Frosty"..

If Summer Was A Movie ? ..............................

[stainesbloke]

I don't think that's an unreasonable ask for summer weather in the UK at all - more realistic than wanting high twenties and humidity along with Carol's humdingers all the time   These col situations can be as good as having high pressure sat over us - it's only really cloud cover that tends to be an issue, as was the case here until 4pm yesterday.

 

Liking the look of this week overall and into the weekend, perhaps a late bout of warmth/heat before it goes bang. Just hoping the rainband to the east of the UK doesn't encroach too far with attendant cloud ahead of it. On a rare occasion it might be that the west turns out better for a few days this week.

Sadly, after some really summery charts from some models over the last few days, the trend appears to be for low pressure from the west and its attendant fronts, which will bring yet more boring cloudy garbage to spoil another 'summer' weekend....desperately hoping the Scandi high can keep all that rubbish from moving in, could still change to sunnier and more settled. Have to say I'm thoroughly fed up with this pattern of constant troughing, enough already! What does it take to get a nice sunny high slapped over the UK for even a week?

[MP-R]

Sadly, after some really summery charts from some models over the last few days, the trend appears to be for low pressure from the west and its attendant fronts, which will bring yet more boring cloudy garbage to spoil another 'summer' weekend....desperately hoping the Scandi high can keep all that rubbish from moving in, could still change to sunnier and more settled. Have to say I'm thoroughly fed up with this pattern of constant troughing, enough already! What does it take to get a nice sunny high slapped over the UK for even a week?

 

It is frustrating indeed, especially as we're now only a week or two away from the end of when one would be most ideal. Come September my interest in high pressure wanes as it just doesn't have the same appeal as April-August. A September like 2010, 2011 or 2013 would be nice with some variety. If there's one thing that's really grated this summer it's the homogeneity of the whole season.

 

Sadly I think you're right, the models are backtracking a little bit on quite the extent of warmth with the Atlantic desperate to crash through. Wouldn't be surprised if it's a half way house again with the ever-irritating NW/SE split.

[cheeky_monkey]

Charts are looking very interesting for later this week/weekend and further on, if you want an actual summer to materialise. GFS consistent with some heat moving NW across the UK, ECM been wobbling around worse than a fish out of water, UKMO looking good too after a wobble. Temps could reach 30C and also thunderstorms may develop Sun night/Mon. Am praying this will verify! Best week of the 'summer' if so.

Still no high pressure sat over us though, as has been the dreary case all summer. So nothing is certain by a long shot, could all change back to crap boring cloud, fronts, wind and mediocre temps again. We do indeed all have our own benchmarks for what is considered 'good summer weather'. Mine are probably unrealistically high for the UK but I'll never like cloud, wind and 17C in summer. For me, sunshine, light winds and 23C+ all the way! With decent storms now and again lol.

isn't that exactly what we have had most of the summer in Middlesex?

[Daniel*]

isn't that exactly what we have had most of the summer in Middlesex?

Agreed,

[weatherguru14]

The gfs have been completely laughable  for months.. in recent days , day after day after day they have been rolling out warm  weather  charts for most of the uk.  WOW  GETTING CLOSE TO THE DEADLINE.and they have completely gone... ermm  what happened?? utter tripe.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

The gfs have been completely laughable  for months.. in recent days , day after day after day they have been rolling out warm  weather  charts for most of the uk.  WOW  GETTING CLOSE TO THE DEADLINE.and they have completely gone... ermm  what happened?? utter tripe.

 

GFS always underestimates low pressure/Atlantic in FI

Edited August 17, 2015 by Ilovethesnow

[Azazel]

GFS always underestimates low pressure/Atlantic in FI

 

If this is the case, and I read this quite often. Why don't they tweak some of the parameters a little bit so it doesnt?

[weatherguru14]

so they aint got a  clue??the information that is fed into the models is biased??  I think i would be in majority when i say the  forecasting  for summer 2015 has been pretty poor to say the least..John Hammond as been one of the culprits. with the nothing spectacular comments. then giving people  the wrong information for a warm week this week. Today was suppose to be sunny mostly in my location.. was only this morning huge cloud amounts appeard from nowhere..

[stainesbloke]

Agreed,

isn't that exactly what we have had most of the summer in Middlesex?

June was indeed mainly sunny, but with a constant howling wind that meant temps rarely reached warm levels. July was dreary and grey most of the time with only about 2 hot days. August ok the first week and a very decent weekend after but pretty poor since. Yes, it's been a lot better here than northern UK but in my books, definitely a summer to forget. Usable? A definite yes. Pleasant? Nope! But that's all quite subjective, as others have suggested before on here.

However, the models are just laughable this year. 2 days ago the GFS was showing hot SE'ly winds for next weekend and just beyond. Take a look now! Suddenly from nowhere, a mini hurricane that would be notable in winter. Absolutely ridiculous and I must say, soul destroying too, especially at this late stage of summer. Of course it may not verify but, it's so frustrating to constantly have decent weather showing up in the 5-8 day range then completely downgrading all summer long.

Edited August 17, 2015 by stainesbloke

[Roadrunner]

Need advice you lovely people. Supposed to be camping in East Sussex at the weekend and have been following the models closely and Sunday seems to be getting worse with each run. What are the chances this could change again with this sort of set up? Any chance of it being dry?

[knocker]

Need advice you lovely people. Supposed to be camping in East Sussex at the weekend and have been following the models closely and Sunday seems to be getting worse with each run. What are the chances this could change again with this sort of set up? Any chance of it being dry?

 

As always in these tricky circumstances I recommend keeping an eye on what the professionals are saying which means keeping an eye on the METO updates. You most likely will get a clearer idea by mid week although even then detail might be elusive.

[summer blizzard]

Word of warning in the models. It now looks like 96L could become our first Cape Verde system of the year. Should it recurve (likely) at a decent strength then it will cause havoc until the models get a grip.

Basically, keep an eye and ignore the models once it hits the jet because its unlikely they'll get a grip quickly.

[Allezwasps.]

Yes I'm on holiday in North Devon from the 22nd , crossing everything in the rather vain hope it seems of some summer weather !!!

[knocker]

Word of warning in the models. It now looks like 96L could become our first Cape Verde system of the year. Should it recurve (likely) at a decent strength then it will cause havoc until the models get a grip.

Basically, keep an eye and ignore the models once it hits the jet because its unlikely they'll get a grip quickly.

 

Blimey that's using a crystal ball if you listen to Levi Cowan's update tonight

Edited August 17, 2015 by knocker

[knocker]

Latest

 

UK Outlook for Wednesday 2 Sep 2015 to Wednesday 16 Sep 2015:

Many parts of the UK will continue to see generally changeable conditions through much of this period. The northwest is likely to see the most unsettled weather with occasional spells of rain or showers, and a low risk of unseasonably windy weather at times, although there will still be some drier periods interspersed. The best of the drier and brighter weather, with only short-lived periods of rain, will always be in the southeast. Temperatures will generally be around, or just above average for the time of year, though a trend towards slightly cooler conditions are expected by mid September.

 

Updated at: 1207 on Tue 18 Aug 2015

 

This ties in with the latest update from the EC32

Edited August 19, 2015 by knocker

[mushymanrob]

so much for the interesting evolution this week, the old battle between the eastern high and western low fails to materialise and the atlantic low 'wins' with little impact from the high..... shame... we could have had some interesting weather, but its all eyes west (southwest) for 'normal' uninspiring weather.

[summer blizzard]

Glory to the models. Still too early but summer may rapidly be coming to an end.

[mushymanrob]

well its coming to that time of the year again, it comes around so fast..

i dont care anymore what the models say, its nearly autumn and as im no fan of late warmth my interest is now very low.

[mushymanrob]

Well I'm afraid I don't understand why. Agreed the outlook is dismal but that that surely doesn't detract from the the fact that, meteorologically speaking, it makes for interesting model watching.

 

oh please dont stop posting, i like your posts, always level headed and with a touch of levity here and there 

i agree its interesting as theres a mix of varied weather on offer, but i cant get over enthused in early autumn.

Edited August 21, 2015 by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on.

[Bogman]

Well I'm afraid I don't understand why. Agreed the outlook is dismal but that that surely doesn't detract from the the fact that, meteorologically speaking, it makes for interesting model watching. 

 

 

Ah Knocker, forget it mate. There are plenty on here who appreciate the effort you put in around these parts.

Don't give into them, just ignore.

Edited August 21, 2015 by Polar Maritime
Same reason as below..

[snowblizzard]

Well I'm afraid I don't understand why. Agreed the outlook is dismal but that that surely doesn't detract from the the fact that, meteorologically speaking, it makes for interesting model watching. 

Please don't go knocker!

We all appreciate and enjoy your posts, even during winter!!

Edited August 21, 2015 by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on.

[Yarmy]

Going to a wedding tomorrow in North Norfolk and it looks like it will be a fine start with a stormy breakdown possible later on.

 

And the weather could do the same:

 

[cheese]

well its coming to that time of the year again, it comes around so fast..

i dont care anymore what the models say, its nearly autumn and as im no fan of late warmth my interest is now very low.

So you'd rather have cool, unsettled weather over warm, settled weather, just because it's nearly September? Am I missing something? I find that really strange - surely given the choice the latter is vastly more appealing.

[Bolt from the Blue]

Next week looks abysmal! More of the same crud, wet and windy and no sign of any settled period. August has failed to impress me. I'll get my coat (literally)