Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Spring/Summer 2015.

[TwisterGirl81]

Summer has'nt been too good in the south west either, a couple nice weeks but I think it's the south east that had the best of what summer was to offer...Although I know we have probably had a better summer than the poor old north west.

[Chris K]

Shame that persistent troughing to the NW has taken the edge of this Summer in my opinion. Those in the NW, particularly Scotland, are probably still waiting for a Summer??

All I have seen in the models since the start is a constant cycle of low pressure to the NW, briefly interrupted by the azores trying its best to nudge in, giving some parts of the country a few warmer days, followed by some sort of thundery "plume" (if it can be called that - nothing compared to plumes of the past). aaaand Repeat.

Didn't the pattern for last winter often involve troughing to the NW? Seems to have been stuck in that general theme for ages...

Edited August 27, 2015 by Chris K

[Bradowl]

Summer's pretty much over though?

 

They'll be another one next year. 

[stainesbloke]

A very uninspiring weekend for the South by the look of the fax charts, yet more fronts draped across us keeping the lovely warmth/clear skies across the Channel. High pressure might move in next week, sadly a chilly one with quite miserable temps for early Sep. Yawn.

[Eugene]

A very uninspiring weekend for the South by the look of the fax charts, yet more fronts draped across us keeping the lovely warmth/clear skies across the Channel. High pressure might move in next week, sadly a chilly one with quite miserable temps for early Sep. Yawn.

 

Yes staines looking potentially very wet again for the south/midlands later Bank Holiday Sunday/Monday before a cool drier Northerly from Tuesday which could be very chilly with cloud cover bubbling up by the afternoon like they usually do in late summer\early autumn, can't see much in the way of warmth at all, already feels fresher now.

[knocker]

If the GFS produced the 0Z run in the heart of winter I think a few on here would be wetting their pants. Lovely classic build of a cold high over the country followed by slow retrogression and ending in an attempted undercut.

 

And when it didn't materialise the weeping and wailing would reach previously unexplored heights.

[Wildswimmer Pete]

They'll be another one next year. 

When you get to my age you don't know whether you'll see another summer.  That's why lousy summers like this one seriously cheese me off - every poor summer's day is another lost from my now limited allotment.

[stainesbloke]

This month really has turned out vile. Not much to look forward to either if the models are right. Today was the best morning of the week by far with clear sunny skies, of course by mid morning the usual nasty infill ruined that. Despite hardly an isobar to be seen across the south on the fax charts, the usual W'ly gale is blowing and it's an unbearable 18C. Phew! What a waste of a week off work lol. The weekend looks dire too with Met Office warnings for my region for torrential rain (yay) and thunderstorms (I'll believe that when I see it!). Then a cold high next week, joy. Thank the Lord work are sending me to Arizona for a couple of days next week! Some sun and heat, bliss.

[summer blizzard]

Just two months and we'd be looking at frost and fog again from the likes of this..

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just two months and we'd be looking at frost and fog again from the likes of this..

 

 

will never happen though, by November, we'll have 4 months of raging Atlantic and flooding no doubts

[DAVID SNOW]

will never happen though, by November, we'll have 4 months of raging Atlantic and flooding no doubts

 

Not this winter ! 

[cheese]

This month really has turned out vile. Not much to look forward to either if the models are right. Today was the best morning of the week by far with clear sunny skies, of course by mid morning the usual nasty infill ruined that. Despite hardly an isobar to be seen across the south on the fax charts, the usual W'ly gale is blowing and it's an unbearable 18C. Phew! What a waste of a week off work lol. The weekend looks dire too with Met Office warnings for my region for torrential rain (yay) and thunderstorms (I'll believe that when I see it!). Then a cold high next week, joy. Thank the Lord work are sending me to Arizona for a couple of days next week! Some sun and heat, bliss.

Much better up north this August compared to points further south - will be interesting to see the Met Office anomaly maps. Currently slightly warmer than average here. Sunshine should finish closer to average - certainly been rather sunny here this week.

 

Every day has managed to exceed 20C too. It's one of those strange occurrences when Leeds is warmer than London.

Edited August 28, 2015 by cheese

[ANYWEATHER]

This month really has turned out vile. Not much to look forward to either if the models are right. Today was the best morning of the week by far with clear sunny skies, of course by mid morning the usual nasty infill ruined that. Despite hardly an isobar to be seen across the south on the fax charts, the usual W'ly gale is blowing and it's an unbearable 18C. Phew! What a waste of a week off work lol. The weekend looks dire too with Met Office warnings for my region for torrential rain (yay) and thunderstorms (I'll believe that when I see it!). Then a cold high next week, joy. Thank the Lord work are sending me to Arizona for a couple of days next week! Some sun and heat, bliss.

Enjoy....

[stainesbloke]

Much better up north this August compared to points further south - will be interesting to see the Met Office anomaly maps. Currently slightly warmer than average here. Sunshine should finish closer to average - certainly been rather sunny here this week.

Every day has managed to exceed 20C too. It's one of those strange occurrences when Leeds is warmer than London.

I'm happy for you up north that Aug hasn't been too bad, compared to the misery of the previous months. Warmer than average is always a good thing! At least we've had very brief warmer spells down south this summer but Aug here has been really disappointing and dreary after a promising, reasonable first few days. Certainly needed some rain here though and the landscape has reacted very rapidly to become lovely and green once again. Shame that pattern got stuck in a rut for weeks instead of days. Ah well, roll on 2016 lol. Edited August 29, 2015 by stainesbloke

[sundog]

Looking forward to next weeks weather if there is decent sunshine about. For my neck of the woods anyway it looks mostly dry, Cool by day but still pleasant enough i would think in the early sept sun,cold by night. The perfect start to autumn.

[Costa Del Fal]

Looking forward to next weeks weather if there is decent sunshine about. For my neck of the woods anyway it looks mostly dry, Cool by day but still pleasant enough i would think in the early sept sun,cold by night. The perfect start to autumn.

But really it's still summer IMO. I think the astronomical seasons are much better in terms of actual conditions expected. The 1st of the month used for each meteorological season is just for statistical purposes really. It's a shame temperatures look so cold for late summer next week. September is more Of a summer month than most of June IMO except daylight hours.

Edited August 29, 2015 by Costa Del Fal

[Costa Del Fal]

To be honest, not really. In fact the only astronomical season I kind of agree with is autumn. I struggle to put most of September in summer and most of March in winter. Yes we can get cold/cool weather in March, but it doesn't really match the cold that you get in midwinter. Just like in September, warmth doesn't have the same quality as it does in July.

 

Seasons to me are more than just weather conditions. In September the days are much shorter, the sun is weaker and lower in the sky and so the light levels don't feel the same as midsummer. You also get the first hints of death and decay, making it more autumnal again. The same goes for March - the sun is higher and stronger and you get the first plants flowering.

 

Anyway back to the models. Even if cool, at least the first 10 days of September are signalled to be mostly dry, which is good news for my holiday.

Yes it certainly Isn't the same as July but all months are somewhat slightly different to the last etc. I isually expect it to be colder than warmer in March and the same for September aka warmer than colder More Often than not.

Besides at least in my area, I don't expect to really see much of any decay in September. Maybe the green not so lush on the trees but for here I don't expect leaves falling in September etc, especially early in the

Month. The sun still has some strength in it and can still burn.

Anyway at least near full summer like temperatures can still be achieved for another month or so yet as per the heatwave we had a few years ago at the end of the month.

[cheese]

The flowers are dying back now, but the trees won't show signs of change until late September in this part of the world. Often later than that.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

But really it's still summer IMO. I think the astronomical seasons are much better in terms of actual conditions expected. The 1st of the month used for each meteorological season is just for statistical purposes really. It's a shame temperatures look so cold for late summer next week. September is more Of a summer month than most of June IMO except daylight hours.

 

certainly still summer next week, holidays until 7th-8th Sept here, next week is 7th week of Summer hols

[Costa Del Fal]

certainly still summer next week, holidays until 7th-8th Sept here, next week is 7th week of Summer hols

Indeed all schools got another week off yet.

[summer blizzard]

Seen the odd tree turning but most stuff still solidly green.

[cheese]

I think any turning at this time of year is mostly disease related.

[Sparkiee storm]

If the charts we have had for most of the summer were in the middle of winter, we would have constant cold blasts with short milder interludes, so hopefully the charts will continue into winter so all cold/snow lovers can enjoy it, with 2- 3 terrible winters to make up for. Especially for the southerners.

Edited August 29, 2015 by Sparkiee storm

[MP-R]

Much better up north this August compared to points further south - will be interesting to see the Met Office anomaly maps. Currently slightly warmer than average here. Sunshine should finish closer to average - certainly been rather sunny here this week.

 

Every day has managed to exceed 20C too. It's one of those strange occurrences when Leeds is warmer than London.

 

If what was shown on the BBC forecast is anything to go by, it seems summer 2015 has been nationally cooler than average, though not by much, wetter than average but with slightly above average sunshine. Given that, you've done pretty well!

[cheese]

If what was shown on the BBC forecast is anything to go by, it seems summer 2015 has been nationally cooler than average, though not by much, wetter than average but with slightly above average sunshine. Given that, you've done pretty well!

Only August will end up slightly warmer than average - the other two came in below average but not significantly.