Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Spring/Summer 2015.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

hmmm..... autumns in the air early this morning, the chilly overnight temps and low sun are a reminder that summers nearly over.

 

Yes, typical August morning, but should be warm later, early autumn though just beginning very early mornings

[rain_shadow]

I do not like to bury the Summer before mid-August, often the best Summer weather starts in September which even outweighs the shorter days. It is early October, when I get into sentimental mood.

[MP-R]

Far from autumnal here - I don't count mornings feeling autumnal unless they start in single figures, which has only recently happened on July 31st when admittedly I recorded one of my lowest ever July readings. Strength of the sun is the most important factor for me - tied with amount of sunshine when considering summer. As such, if I can still catch the sun it's still summer. I don't normally stop catching the sun when out in it until September.

 

Back to the models, and I'm wondering if actually the weekend could be half decent after Thurs/Fri's thundery low zips away to the east. Can't emphasise enough how short the reliable timeframe is - even yesterday was wrongly forecast!

[Buzz]

Yes, typical August morning, but should be warm later, early autumn though just beginning very early mornings

 

What? It's not even mid August yet y'know ..........

[mushymanrob]

I do not like to bury the Summer before mid-August, often the best Summer weather starts in September which even outweighs the shorter days. It is early October, when I get into sentimental mood.

 

... but as i keep saying, theres more to 'summer' then just sunshine and heat.

and todays turning out to be another great day for summer conditions. now i realise that this next statement is a IMBY post, but im currently enjoying the best august in 12 years... no not the warmest, but theres been a lot of dry sunny/bright weather here , im content with this, but will it continue?

well looking at the uncertain models, i see no monsoon (outside the approaching thundery spell tomorrow/friday), nor any heatwave. i dont think the second half of august (we are as near as damn it mid august) will be too different from what we have had so far. in all a pretty average summer august here (imby) ... suits me.

Edited August 12, 2015 by mushymanrob

[mushymanrob]

as often is the case two posts that make one wonder how it can be so.

Eugene west Midlands and mushy east Midlands

here Doncaster, most of us are never quite sure which geographical location we belong in but for facts

Since June 1st, the start of official summer there has been 46 days of 20C or more and 15 days of 25C or more.

1 June to 7 August=68 days I think.

make of it what you will.

 

i dont keep meteorological records, but i do record flowering times / dates of my lilies. this year they are (around) 3 weeks behind last year. i put this down to the cool/below average temps in may and june.

[Eugene]

When will it ever end, dreadful charts for us who like pleasant cool fresh weather, more high humidity next week with a scandy high and easterlies, trust me you won't see one when you want one for any length of time, so frustrating.

[mushymanrob]

When will it ever end, dreadful charts for us who like pleasant cool fresh weather, more high humidity next week with a scandy high and easterlies, trust me you won't see one when you want one for any length of time, so frustrating.

Humidity from an easterly?

[cheese]

Th UK is often fresh and cool from October to May. Can't us warm-weather lovers have our turn just for 4 months or so? Please? We haven't been spoilt this year.

[Milhouse]

The GFS is showing a really pleasant 5-7 days beginning with Saturday. Isolated showers cant be ruled out but there should be a lot of dry weather around. There really cant be any complaints about it being too warm and humid either. Pleasant temps of 19-24c really arent too warm.

[mushymanrob]

im not so sure about this expected nice weather. its looking rather messy to me, and i think that there could be cloud issues that spoil the party...

[Mark Parsons]

And as for the abysmal forecasting just a day ahead by the METO, I would be really peed off if I was in those areas forecast to be dry, I planned my day around rain today and we hardly had any before 6pm, absolutely diabolical for those of us who depend on making our livings outside!!!!!!!!

[summer blizzard]

-10C isotherm now into high resolution.. winters coming.

 

[knocker]

I see what you mean. Where do you normally winter?

Edited August 14, 2015 by knocker

[mushymanrob]

-10C isotherm now into high resolution.. winters coming.

 

 

+10 is closer!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

-10C isotherm now into high resolution.. winters coming.

 

 

0nly interested in the UK, that chart looks a shocker

[Costa Del Fal]

-10C isotherm now into high resolution.. winters coming.

 

More chance of +10 reaching Britain in winter than -10c.

Would love it if your posts would be more balanced too rather than just going on a complete cold bias.

[JeffC]

More chance of +10 reaching Britain in winter than -10c.

Would love it if your posts would be more balanced too rather than just going on a complete cold bias.

Aye but to be fair...the clue is in his name.

Stick around kid, we might just see the +10 vs-10 balance change...

Edited August 15, 2015 by JeffC

[rain_shadow]

METO forecast for North Wales for today: sunny.

 

Reality: cloudy, with a shower around 10am. Very little sunshine before 6pm. 

[cheese]

Looking at the MOD thread I got the impression that the output was poor, but I just glanced over the GFS temperature predictions and it looks very nice to me.. am I missing something here? ECM doesn't look bad to me either - admittedly no lengthy high pressure spell but warm anyway.

 

Meh, I guess we all have our own benchmarks for what is considered nice.

[mushymanrob]

Looking at the MOD thread I got the impression that the output was poor, but I just glanced over the GFS temperature predictions and it looks very nice to me.. am I missing something here? ECM doesn't look bad to me either - admittedly no lengthy high pressure spell but warm anyway.

 

Meh, I guess we all have our own benchmarks for what is considered nice.

Dont listen to the nay-sayers, guys with an agenda.

It cant be too bad, IM not writing off summer yet!! Lol

[stainesbloke]

Looking at the MOD thread I got the impression that the output was poor, but I just glanced over the GFS temperature predictions and it looks very nice to me.. am I missing something here? ECM doesn't look bad to me either - admittedly no lengthy high pressure spell but warm anyway.

Meh, I guess we all have our own benchmarks for what is considered nice.

Charts are looking very interesting for later this week/weekend and further on, if you want an actual summer to materialise. GFS consistent with some heat moving NW across the UK, ECM been wobbling around worse than a fish out of water, UKMO looking good too after a wobble. Temps could reach 30C and also thunderstorms may develop Sun night/Mon. Am praying this will verify! Best week of the 'summer' if so.

Still no high pressure sat over us though, as has been the dreary case all summer. So nothing is certain by a long shot, could all change back to crap boring cloud, fronts, wind and mediocre temps again. We do indeed all have our own benchmarks for what is considered 'good summer weather'. Mine are probably unrealistically high for the UK but I'll never like cloud, wind and 17C in summer. For me, sunshine, light winds and 23C+ all the way! With decent storms now and again lol.

Edited August 16, 2015 by stainesbloke

[knocker]

I have to say I think a point frequently made in recent discussions on here somewhat disingenuous Since when did posting accurate chart(s) accompanied by comment(s) and at the same time totally misrepresenting the model run become mutually exclusive?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Horrid b'day chart on GFS 00Z, between 360 and 372

[MP-R]

Charts are looking very interesting for later this week/weekend and further on, if you want an actual summer to materialise. GFS consistent with some heat moving NW across the UK, ECM been wobbling around worse than a fish out of water, UKMO looking good too after a wobble. Temps could reach 30C and also thunderstorms may develop Sun night/Mon. Am praying this will verify! Best week of the 'summer' if so.

Still no high pressure sat over us though, as has been the dreary case all summer. So nothing is certain by a long shot, could all change back to crap boring cloud, fronts, wind and mediocre temps again. We do indeed all have our own benchmarks for what is considered 'good summer weather'. Mine are probably unrealistically high for the UK but I'll never like cloud, wind and 17C in summer. For me, sunshine, light winds and 23C+ all the way! With decent storms now and again lol.

 

I don't think that's an unreasonable ask for summer weather in the UK at all - more realistic than wanting high twenties and humidity along with Carol's humdingers all the time   These col situations can be as good as having high pressure sat over us - it's only really cloud cover that tends to be an issue, as was the case here until 4pm yesterday.

 

Liking the look of this week overall and into the weekend, perhaps a late bout of warmth/heat before it goes bang. Just hoping the rainband to the east of the UK doesn't encroach too far with attendant cloud ahead of it. On a rare occasion it might be that the west turns out better for a few days this week.