Model Output Discussion - Spring 5th March Onwards 6z--->

[Summer Sun]

Looking through the GFS temps for next week we see a steady rise throughout the week with the end of the week getting into the mid teens

 

Monday starts on a chilly note

 

 

Tuesday and Wednesday stay chilly in the north but a rise in temps for the south

 

 

Thursday sees a slight rise in the north and a slight drop in the south resulting in temps around 9c to 11c widely

 

 

By Friday it turns much milder across the UK hitting 15c maybe even a bit higher

 

 

The Saturday sees a slight fall for England but 15c could still be hit in places

 

Edited March 13, 2015 by Summer Sun

[Nouska]

Last night Cloud 10 stated that it was phase 8 going into phase 1.

Is this because the models have changed or different peoples interpretations.

A genuine question as the MJO has been quoted so much this year.

 

As IDO says - a complicated picture - further complicated by people using different models to show the MJO forecast. I use the multi-model for a quick glance and the full suite with the ensembles for more detail.

 

 

multi link - http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ALL_emean_phase_full.gif

 

full suite - http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

 

The oscillations have all been highly amplified and the atmosphere seems to be in some sort of transition to something more amplified than what we have seen. I would imagine modelling will remain erratic until a clearer picture emerges.

[Frosty.]

The 6z shows very pleasant weather later next week, mild and fine with sunny periods and light winds.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

The 6z shows very pleasant weather later next week, mild and fine with sunny periods and light winds.

 

This makes me Very happy as it is my 21st Birthday on the 21st March (Lol)

 

However note... I don't think the high is going to be as strong as the models are suggesting... Also I think the temps are being over done (next week)

 

Cold nights will also happen under any clear skies... 

[Frosty.]

This makes me Very happy as it is my 21st Birthday on the 21st March (Lol)

 

However note... I don't think the high is going to be as strong as the models are suggesting... Also I think the temps are being over done (next week)

 

Cold nights will also happen under any clear skies...

Many happy returns for the 21st, same date as my sister. I don't think temps are being over done though, 11-13c in late March is normal and would make a pleasant change from the increasingly chilly, breezy and cloudy weather this weekend and early next week as the scandi high becomes the main feature.

[johnholmes]

Thanks for your reply John,

Expanding a bit on the "forecasters of those days", 

I might be wrong but in times gone by you were a meteorologist who became a TV weather presenter.

While there are the same today I feel that many of today's presenters are just that, they present the weather, rather then being a meteorologist.

will reply by pm

[IDO]

I am still struggling to have any confidence from around D5. The GEFS do not support the op. In fact the control represents 84% of the ensembles and the other 16% follow the op:

 

op:   Control:  Mean: 

 

It is not just the GFS. The ECM op at D5 is in cluster 4 of 5 with only 20% support! http://old.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/teasers/samplers/banner/mean_sea_level_pressure_and_temperature_at_850hpa!120!pop!od!enfo!enplot!2015030800!!/

 

GEM continues with the HP theme right through to D10 so that remains consistent: 

 

 

 

UKMO is in line with all the other ops: 

 

At D5 it is probably prudent to follow the ops rather than the ensemble clusters but it is still rather strange!

[Milhouse]

The GFS 12z two areas of high pressure joining forces over the UK next week delivering pleasant temperatures under mostly light winds. By midweek temperatures widely into double figures.

 

[Milhouse]

UKMO looking promising too with a large area of high pressure building over the UK bringing settled springlike conditions nationwide.

 

[mushymanrob]

The GFS 12z two areas of high pressure joining forces over the UK next week delivering pleasant temperatures under mostly light winds. By midweek temperatures widely into double figures.

 

Indeed the gfs 12z is about as good as we can expect in mid march, although cloud might be an issue if the high sits just to our west?

[Milhouse]

However the ECM ends on a showery and cold/cool theme. A very up and down next 10 days to come in terms of temperature.

 

[J10]

https://forum.netweather.tv/blog/189/entry-4878-alps-weather-forecast-13-march-2015/

Latest Alps blog forecast out now.

[Frosty.]

All the models are now showing the Azores high building across the UK by next midweek or soon after, I let the Gfs 12z run further because the high intensifies over the uk for a longer period, the ukmo 12z shows a stronger high than 0z and the gem is also looking fine. If this trend continues, I expect the next met office update to increase their confidence in a fine and pleasant spell occurring during the second half of next week and perhaps beyond that but with cold nights under clearing / clear skies.

[johnholmes]

All the models are now showing the Azores high building across the UK by next midweek or soon after, I let the Gfs 12z run further because the high intensifies over the uk for a longer period, the ukmo 12z shows a stronger high than 0z and the gem is also looking fine. If this trend continues, I expect the next met office update to increase their confidence in a fine and pleasant spell occurring during the second half of next week and perhaps beyond that but with cold nights under clearing / clear skies.

So what about the ecm then frosty, see post showing a difference to you assessment?

[winterof79]

So what about the ecm then frosty, see post showing a difference to you assessment?

Yes the GFS has been slated of late.

ECM sees it like this

 

The GEFS not going for a high slap bang over us at all

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=192

 

You can understand the METO forecasting great uncertainty 

 

The hills were white up here today as the Scandi high exerted itself.

Edited March 13, 2015 by winterof79

[Frosty.]

So what about the ecm then frosty, see post showing a difference to you assessment?

I focussed on the stronger Azores high solutions tonight John, it's interesting to note the Gfs having previously being the odd one out is now the leader of the pack in strength and longevity whereas the ecm is now the weakest..but they all show the Azores high at T+144 which is the main thing...I think its the trend that's most important at this range rather than detail, which will change of course as we get closer. Hope that answers your question John.

I like to accentuate the positives :-)

Edited March 13, 2015 by Frosty.

[Milhouse]

The ECM mean does support a cooling trend in FI but not as abrupt as the op suggests.

 

[Frosty.]

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean is surprisingly good in my opinion, it shows the Azores high building in and sticking around, especially further south as time goes on but as it stands, 3 or 4 consecutive days of fine and pleasant weather with chilly nights. The Gfs and ukmo 12z ops are the pick of the bunch tonight, especially the Gfs which has come from nowhere to the best looking in the space of 48 hours..all in all its a good day at the office for those looking for a fine springlike spell later next week.

[damianslaw]

Reliable timeframe a chilly cloudy mostly dry outlook through to mid week under a nagging easterly becoming southeasterly breeze. Some western sheltered parts could see some decent spells of sunshine but never particularly mild.

 

The models are much closer in tune today with GFS coming round to the azores high ridging NE scenario as we move through the middle of next week. However, there continue to be differences longer term, ECM sticking to its settled high pressure scenario overhead coming under attack from the NW as we see energy transported off a projected deep long wave trough development over NE USA seaboard sending heights back south west and west with a flow then from the NW. GFS keeps heights over the country for a while longer - but given all the flip flopping the GFS has been producing recently I wouldn't be surprised if it shows a raging northerly tomorrow... it is struggling with upstream projected changes taking place over the Poles  which don't favour an protracted settled milder than average spell.

 

My own take on things is for a generally quiet spell of weather through until next weekend, becoming milder for a time with some places seeing respectable temps by next weekend where the sun shines, but cold nights, however thereafter the atlantic will nudge its way through but from the NW with a predominantly cool unsettled period then seeing the rest of March out with an airstream from between west and north.

[Captain Shortwave]

Day 6 charts

UKMO

High pressure centred just west of the UK, temperatures near normal and dry

 

GFS

Similar but with a stronger ridge and hence a slack north to north east flow. Cool but not cold.

 

GEM

UK high, a chilly wind in the south

 

ECM

North to north east flow developing with scattered snow showers developing down the east coast at day 7/8

It wouldn't take much extra amplification of the ECM solution to barrel down some really cold air and enough instability to develop some beefy showers. At this time it will just a a few scattered ones mixed with sunny spells. No GFS ens member gets close to this though so it is at the moment the coldest solution. That said it certainly holds interest as the time frame isn't miles away.

[Polar Maritime]

GFS this morning continues to show the Atlantic pushing in from the N/W around the last 3rd of the Month. Bringing cool sometimes cold wet and windy weather across the UK. With a wintry mix for the North.

 

 

 

ECMWF also shows this theme from around the same time-frame.

 

Edited March 14, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[KyleHenry]

Final warming now confirmed on the ECMWF at 10 hPa inline withe the GFS

http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/winterdiagnostics/

PV forced towards N Russia/ Svalbard region.

As always until this was confirmed the models were unable to lock onto correct signal.

ECM for 21st March is one distinct possibility at 500 hPa shows a polar sourced NE flow and the North and East UK Coastal regions have -8 C to -10 C uppers to deal with.

It's all about the position of the PV lobes and which area they get to move Southwards.

GFS in the outer FI follows with similar effect but different Synoptics to achieve same result.

Interesting week coming up longevity and depth of cold air along with High pressure AZ and Scandi still to be decided.

MJO forecasts are on the money this time in general phase 7 Scandi HP, short lived phase 8 with some HP around Greenland in 8-10 days time.

As usual strength of sun and moisture levels available for snowfall to be decided

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON SATURDAY MARCH 14TH 2015.

 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A cold but slack East to NE flow will affect all areas with a ridge over Scotland.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif 

 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE A lot of dry weather with some sunshine and just occasional rain especially at first in the South and in the North later. Temperatures will be close to average or a little below overall.

 

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Ensemble Forecast shows the the main thrust of the flow moving North across the Atlantic, Iceland and the Norwegian Sea. Meanwhile a Southern arm over North Africa and towards Eastern Europe around a cut off Spanish Low continues for a time before a strong Northern arm develops across the UK later, at least for a time in the second week.

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational run today shows a lot of High pressure based weather, firstly over Europe giving the UK a spell of cold East winds and later over the UK with more sunshine, lighter winds and night frosts most likely at that time. It then shows a much more mobile, windy and unsettled period developing in the second week under active Atlantic Low pressure with strong winds and rain or showers at times in typical March conditions later.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif 

 

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run is similar in sequence of events through the next week or so but the unsettled Westerly period shown by the operational is a colder NW'ly from the Control Run leading to cold and windy weather with wintry showers for a time at the start of the second week before High pressure makes a comeback at the end of the period in cold air with bright and pleasant enough days but with sharp Spring night frosts. 

 

THE GFS CLUSTERS  The GFS Clusters show a predominance of Low pressure expected to lie close to the UK in two weeks times with variabtions of cloudy, wind and rain or showers under Low pressure near to, just to the NE or West between 65% of the pack. The remaining 35% show High pressure lying across the UK with fine and settled conditions

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

 

UKMO UKMO this morning shows the ridge from the East slowly being replaced by our own UK High pressure through the week with rather brigter skies by day and frost by night. By the end of the working week this looks like being edged slowly West as pressure falls towards Scandinavia.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a complex area of High pressure stretching a ridge West over the UK but complicated by weak troughs moving West or NW in the flow before a UK based High pressure begins to simplify the fine weather pattern by midweek or soon after.

 

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

 

GEM GEM today shows High pressure in control over the UK in the shape of a ridge from the East at first or a High centred across the UK later in the coming week. There is a chilly NE or East feed across the South for much of the cold adding to a chill feel here before sunnier conditions across the North later this week raise temperatures by day somewhat. Things are shown to become more delicately poised between slack winds and slightly more unsettled conditions by the end of the 10 day period covered by the run.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

 

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows High pressure becoming dominant and centred across the UK later this week and maintained until the end of the run with the current chilly East flow becoming replaced by less cold and sunnier air for many but with a frost risk at night.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

 

ECM ECM this morning shows a complex and slowly changing High pressure based pattern over the next week to 10 days. There are threats of even colder air than we have currently making inroads into the SE of the UK from the NE as the Euro High is replaced by a UK based one just to the NW but on this run it fails to sustain it narrowly as the High collapses SE and a slow change to less cold Westerly winds look likely towards the end of the 10 days, first in the North. 

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 Day Mean Chart this morning continues it's drift to a more changeable Atlantic based weather pattern by Day 10 with aJet Stream South of the UK, Low pressure close to the North and a Westerly flow across the UK no doubt with rain at times.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

 

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The collapse of the European High next week is well supported with the evolutions thereafter gradually showing more of a tendeny for Atlantic Westerly winds and rain at times to develop slowly.

 

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.8 pts followed by UKM at 97.3 pts and GFS at 96.7. At 5 days ECM  continues to lead the field at 91.2 pts over UKMO at 89.2 pts and GFS at 87.9. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 67.8 pts over GFS's 62.7 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 51.0 pts over GFS at 46.2. 

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png 

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig

 

 

MY THOUGHTS The mist is slowly clearing between the model outputs this morning as there looks like a cessation in the chilly East or NE from all but the Southernmost part of the UK by midweek as a new UK based High pressure is looking highly likely by then. This should clean up the European haze into clearer skies with some sunshine but with frosts at night where skies clear sufficiently. Then as we look further out still there are varying scenarios in the way that High pressure declines over the UK with the majority edging towards a more Atlantic influence taking hold, probably from the North or NW with much more likelihood of bands of rain and showers beginning to turn up across the UK from pressure having fallen pressure from the North. The extent and longevity of this change is difficult to call at this range with the longest term output indicating that there is a chance that High pressure may return late on but too speculative to call a defintive 'yes' at this range. So all in all a fairly settled and benign weather pattern looks likely over the next 10 days or so with light winds gradually swiching to a less cold quarter with time and rather more sunshine coming into play too once our UK based high develops. A chance then of more unsettled and changeable conditions with average temperatures is then conceivable late in the period but all in all nothing too dramatic and concering weatherwise across the UK in the next two weeks with temperatures finishing up having been near or slightly below average overall.   

 

Issued at 09:00 Saturday March 14th 2015

[Frosty.]

I've taken a snapshot of the Gfs,Ecm,Ukmo,Gem & Navgem 00z output for just beyond the middle of next week and they all show either the Azores / UK based high pressure bringing pleasant settled conditions with light winds but with chilly nights under clear skies. Longevity wise, it's uncertain, the ecm for example is walking a fine line between cold and showery northerly winds and more pleasant anticyclonic conditions through FI and there is a longer term trend for generally unsettled weather to set in by late March but I think we are going to have a more pleasant benign spell starting around the middle of next week and lasting into the following week.

Edited March 14, 2015 by Frosty.

[damianslaw]

I've taken a snapshot of the Gfs,Ecm,Ukmo,Gem & Navgem 00z output for just beyond the middle of next week and they all show either the Azores / UK based high pressure bringing pleasant settled conditions with light winds but with chilly nights under clear skies. Longevity wise, it's uncertain, the ecm for example is walking a fine line between cold and showery northerly winds and more pleasant anticyclonic conditions through FI and there is a longer term trend for generally unsettled weather to set in by late March but I think we are going to have a more pleasant benign spell starting around the middle of next week and lasting into the following week.

 

Mmm not too sure this will happen, the longer term general trend is cool and unsettled possibly cold and unsettled due to developments over the Poles, heights generally rising to the NW will prevent any sustained settled period - but we shall see. Both ECM and GFS show heights eroded by lower heights from the NW in around 8-10 days time..