Model Output Discussion - Spring 5th March Onwards 6z--->

[stodge]

The 6Z Operational continues the theme of rebuilding the PV in deepest FI:

 

From here:

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015031006/gfsnh-0-288.png?6

 

to here:

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015031006/gfsnh-0-384.png?6?6

 

The latter chart very familiar to us all over the past couple of winters,

 

Well now - this would have got everyone excited two months ago:

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/run/gfsnh-10-288.png?6

[summer blizzard]

The 6Z Operational continues the theme of rebuilding the PV in deepest FI:

 

From here:

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015031006/gfsnh-0-288.png?6

 

to here:

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015031006/gfsnh-0-384.png?6?6

 

The latter chart very familiar to us all over the past couple of winters,

 

Well now - this would have got everyone excited two months ago:

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/run/gfsnh-10-288.png?6

 

Last chart is probably the final warming. 

[Summer Sun]

ECM weekly charts suggesting slightly below average temps for week 3 of March (23rd to 29th) for the UK and western Europe in general

 

Last few days of March and early April trends to around average with slightly below normal temps for SW France, Spain and Portugal

 

 

Charts WSI Europe weather

[Captain Shortwave]

Looking at the 12z output coming out here, I suspect our problem might not be getting blocking in place here, the issue might be trying to develop a pattern over Europe which could bring cold weather. This potentially looks similar to the end of arch last year where we ended up with heights to our north but got stuck in a cyclonic south easterly as low pressure stalled west of Iberia, the result was warm conditions for the south with temperatures getting up to around 20C. (This wouldn't happen this time but issue of the pattern over Southern/central Europe could occur again)

Something similar could happen here to be honest as pressure builds to the north the Atlantic systems slow up west of the UK.

Day 6 charts

GFS

UKMO

At least the easterly doesn't last too long.

 

Beyond that the GFS builds heights 

Rain or showers spread erratically eastwards with temperatures lifting to around or just above normal after a chilly Sunday and Monday.

Edited March 10, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[stodge]

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015031012/gfsnh-0-264.png?12

 

And well into FI but a growing signal for the PV to begin to move back west and by the end of the run it's back in its familiar home between Canada and Greenland and the Atlantic is firing up for the end of the month and Easter.

 

By no means a done deal and let's see where the perturbations take us but a worrying sign for those of us looking for some more interesting spring synoptics.

[Cloud 10]

Plenty of Northern hemisphere interest in the day 10 operational runs at the moment from GFS,GEM and ECM.

 

 

 

The GWO has disappeared off the side of the screen...

 

 

......and the MOGREPS MJO looks to be heading off the other side.

 

 

 

Lets see what the 12z ECM has in store.

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z mean shows the Azores high becoming more influential as the scandi high begins to sink and although it gradually becomes more unsettled later in March, the AZ High begins to build in once again. In the meantime, generally unsettled for a bit longer although by the end of this week HP to the northeast of the uk is taking over but still with a risk of some rain in places but with brighter weather too. Beyond next Monday, the southern half of the UK will probably enjoy more in the way of sunshine and milder temperatures following a rather chilly feeling Sunday and Monday, whereas northern Britain looks cooler with rain about for much of the time.

[Winter Cold]

Laughable differences tonight from GFS and ECM at T192, couldnt be more opposite!

 

   

 

 

 

One way or the other a model will come crawling back into line, and looking at my local GEFS it will be, surprise surpise, the GFS. The worst solution for pressure next week for the 12z:

 

[nick sussex]

Does anyone have a time-machine? can we just go back to winter as the outputs would be great!

 

Both the GFS and ECM are playing around with some pressure rises to the nw, as yet though we're not seeing deeper troughing setting up further south to the east.

 

At this time of year you really need some Arctic sourced air and even then something remarkable to deliver, sadly I think its a case of nice synoptics but too late.

[mcweather]

I see the Ecm is yet again doing its teaser at ten days as usual. Pretty much what' it's done all winter so why should we expect anything different in early spring. Lol

[nick sussex]

Perhaps something to bear in mind re the MJO forecasts and the type of synoptics that each phase can lead to. The Australian Weather Bureau's weekly update:

 

All forecasts of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) are being heavily influenced by the strong burst of westerly winds over the western tropical Pacific Ocean. This means forecasts of the MJO are unlikely to be representative of typical MJO conditions.

 

For this reason I'd be a bit wary of any pressure rises over Greenland until this starts appearing at day 7 at least.

[Frosty.]

Good continuity from the Ecm, the previous two runs ended pretty similar to this one from the 12z tonight. We would be looking at a late March cold blast for sure.

[ANYWEATHER]

Let the East /West battle commence , as one person mentioned its not Winter anymore...! I really think messey synoptics from the models, whos right??  Both gfs and ecm have illustrated that high pressure will be the form in recent weeks , and guess what has happened    The age old battle continues, which leaves the Uk  in no mans land!......And the Atlantic returns later

Edited March 10, 2015 by ANYWEATHER

[Frosty.]

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean looks pretty benign to me with high pressure in control until near the end when pressure begins to fall from the north but on the whole it's not bad. I think it's the sort of pattern where it's hard to say precisely what the surface conditions will be day to day, region to region at this range, I do think there will be a lot of cloud and even some rain and drizzle but there will also be much brighter and sunnier spells too :-)

[damianslaw]

A fair bit of uncertainty with the outlook thanks to differing scenarios thrown up by GFS and ECM this evening. Both agree on the influence of scandi heights over the weekend and into next week bringing a chilly cloudy feel to things. Thereafter significant differences, GFS is quite messy with a half hearted atlantic attack before heights build in from the azores once again, whilst all the time showing height rises over Greenland and deep trough exiting USA seaboard - mmm the three don't go hand in hand very well.. so I would put a large disclaimer on it. ECM also shows the atlantic moving in, but with a rapid build of heights over Greenland and a deep trough moving down from the arctic ushering in a cold blast.

 

In these set ups best keep an open mind, March could end up being a month with a wide variety of synoptics with airstreams from all directions.

[bluearmy]

Extended eps rock solid with their consistency. The sceuro trough gradually backing west to be across the uk by the end of week 2. A very wintry scenario only a few weeks ago will be unlikely to bring anything notable away from northern hills unless that chunk of Asian vortex can be tempted further sw. looks decidedly more unsettled as we head through week 2 though.

[damianslaw]

Not weather related, but just ruminating on the recent very low level activity in this forum and particularly this thread..

 

It never ceases to amaze me how quiet this forum suddenly becomes once March starts - evidence that many members are far more interested in the weather during winter... as soon as March starts people go into hibernation..

 

Its a shame because the synoptics in spring are often far more 'interesting' than during the winter, and it is always a more unpredictable season weatherwise.

 

Just 70 people reading this thread now.. we were close to a 1000 2/3 weeks back... It feels like you are talking to yourself at times.

 

Would be interesting to note when is the quietest time of the year in the forum as a whole - I suspect in the depths of the summer holiday period, on some days its a struggle to see more than 5 posts in this particular thread all day..

 

 

[knocker]

Extended eps rock solid with their consistency. The sceuro trough gradually backing west to be across the uk by the end of week 2. A very wintry scenario only a few weeks ago will be unlikely to bring anything notable away from northern hills unless that chunk of Asian vortex can be tempted further sw. looks decidedly more unsettled as we head through week 2 though.

 

Almost a phase 8 of the MJO

 

[Frosty.]

18z shows rather cold conditions arriving from the east by next weekend and it continues rather cold all next week, especially across Scotland, just a little milder in the south for a short time. Precipitation is mostly rain or drizzle and it looks scattered and mostly light but it may be a touch wintry, at least across northern hills and mountains but there would be some brighter weather with sunny spells and the nights during the period in question look cold with widespread slight frosts.

[bluearmy]

Almost a phase 8 of the MJO

 

Asian heights wrong knocks

[Polar Maritime]

The GFS continues to show a cool slack Easterly over the weekend and into the working week. By Wednesday a Low swings in off the Atlantic giving a N/S split with more unsettled/cooler conditions further North. Out into the run towards the end of March still shows cooler/wetter weather over the UK as Lows swing further South pulling cooler air in with it.

 

Charts not in order..

 

Edited March 11, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 00z gradually shows the Azores high bringing milder and sunnier conditions from around T+168 hours up and across most of the UK which in my opinion would be the most pleasant period next week if it verifies.

Edited March 11, 2015 by Frosty.

[knocker]

Asian heights wrong knocks

 

Well it's very broad brush ba but I thought the crucial difference the Alaskan ridge compared to the eps T360. I see they are talking about the west pacific typhoon (which one?) impacting the US pattern next week (possibly more cold) which could have a knock on effect downstream.

Edited March 11, 2015 by knocker

[IDO]

The models remain consistent for the next 7-8 days with pressure building to the NE from T72 to T168:

 

 

 

A dry and settled weekend and early next week. The London precipitation graph shows this and hints at the easterly bringing a colder feel:

 

 

After that the models still go on their merry ways as they try to unravel the block -v- Atlantic outcome. The three main models:

 

  

 

The GEFS also vary and there are clusters supporting the ECM & GEM D8 charts. The GFS op outcome looks another unlikely scenario from this inconsistent model, and the mean is closer to ECM:

 

 

More runs needed I expect, especially as the ECM D10 solution, although relatively consistent appears to be over amplified if the GEM and GFS Ensembles are a guide. 

 

With regard to the front today, the WRF looks to be on the ball again with it breaking up before it reaches the E/SE. The WRF has always modelled Friday's front to stall against the building high to the NE before it reaches the Berkshire area and the GFS comes to that conclusion this morning. I suspect the BBC will revert to that on their forecasts as yesterday they were suggesting a washout for the some of the SE on Friday:

 

 

 

The UKMO forecast for the next two weeks is a lot closer to the ECM op than the GFS op. 

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON WEDNESDAY MARCH 11TH 2015.

 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A series of fronts will cross the UK today and tonight with a trailing cold front becoming slow moving over Southern Britain tonight returning back north and East tomorrow.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif 

 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE A lot of dry weather with some sunshine and just occasional rain especially later. Temperatures will be close to average or a little below overall.

 

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Ensemble Forecast shows the flow setting up well NW of the UK late this week moving in a NE direction over Iceland. The trend thereafter is for it to gradually move back South through Week 2 and strengthen as High pressure to the east gives way to UK based lower pressure.

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational today shows High pressure over Europe becoming dominant for a time from this weekend well into next week with a ridge lying across the UK feeding chilly but light breezes from Europe. The flow then switches back towards a SW flow by next weekend and the second half of the run is typified by strong winds and heavy rain at times as Low pressure areas swing across the UK from off the Atlantic.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif 

 

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run is much the same in the short to mid term as the operational with a slower track towards rather cold and unsettled windy weather later as Low pressure moves down over the UK from the NW dragging some cold polar air with it at times with no doubt some snow for a time in the North.

 

THE GFS CLUSTERS Not Available at time of issue this morning. See link below for later update.

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

 

UKMO UKMO this morning shows the ridge from the East once developed holding firm well into next week with a lot of quiet and benign weather conditions likely across the UK with a lot of cloud, perhaps a little rain and a chilly feel in the East or SE feed.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts follow the theme of the operational well with old Atlantic troughs pushed West out of the UK and leaving the sack East or SE flow and rather quiet and chilly conditions across the UK to begin next week.

 

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

 

GEM GEM today follows the GFS theme for its latter stages with the quiet continental drift of air early in the week slowly being replaced by an Atlantic feed again with low pressure moving in and disrupting across the UK as it comes up against the Euro block and delivering outbreaks of rain at times and possibly some hill snow in the North.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

 

NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows a breakdown from off the Atlantic taking over from the benign conditions of early in the week from the Euro High. Low pressure later next weeks feeds wind and rain into most areas by the end of the period.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

 

ECM ECM this morning shows a very changeable pattern as the slack Continental flow under the ridge gives way briefly towards the middle of next week with some rain as a trough moves East. A return to a large UK High then is quickly displaced from the NW by more coherent wind and rain and chilly conditions late in the period as Low pressure deepens and moves down across the UK. 

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 Day Mean Chart this morning shows growing support for a Northerly in 10 days time as pressure lowers over Europe and pressure ridges North across the mid Atlantic with the Jet flow shoved a long way South of the UK and NW Europe.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

 

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The period of benign and chilly conditions early next week looks like being displaced later by a trend towards more unsettled weather from the West or NW.

 

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.8 pts followed by UKM at 97.3 pts and GFS at 96.6. At 5 days ECM  continues to lead the field at 90.9 pts over UKMO at 89.3 pts and GFS at 87.6. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 69.6 pts over GFS's 62.6 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 50.1 pts over GFS at 45.4. 

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png 

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig

 

 

MY THOUGHTS Changes in the longer term pattern are the main focus of interest within the models this morning as the now well documented pressure rise and ridge from Europe now looks a certainty from the end of the week supported by all output. This will bring a lot of cloud unfortunately and as a result of this and a light breeze from the East or SE it will feel cold with any brightness to the West and NW of high ground to the East or SE. It's from the middle of next week when changes begin to take place as the winds veer towards the South and then SW with pressure falling from the West. Troughs of Low pressure then look like taking control across the UK in one shape or another with a variety of options shown on how this transpires within the output today. the message is though that cloud, wind and rain is very likely by the second weekend leading on into a much more unsettled spell with rain at times towards the end of the period. It may also turn rather cold as there is also support for the change to unsettled conditions to feed colder air down from the NW at times late in the period with some snow likely to return to Northern high ground at the end of the period, this looking very possible if the ECM 10 day mean chart was to verify. My own thoughts lie in the camp of the return to Atlantic Westerlies looking likely later this month with alternating spells of rain with strong and colder more showery periods in winds North of West. I also feel that there will not be any particularly mild March conditions across the UK this year with potentially rather chilly conditions looking rather more likely than early Spring warmth though having said that particularly wintry conditions away from the highest ground looks unlikely.   

 

Issued at 09:00 Wednesday March 11th 2015