Model Output Discussion - Spring 5th March Onwards 6z--->

[seaside 60]

Is it just me or do the models seem to have been very disorganized for  say the 5-10 day period.

Its always highlighted more when you have 500 people plus hanging on every model run.

But when you only have a few it gets missed.

They seen to be coming out with several different ideas.

Again today the GFS and ECM are totally different around the 8 day mark.

We have had mentioned very warm such as 18c to fresh easterlies at 5c and possibly sleet.

Also much has been mentioned that pressure will be much higher than average to Atlantic taking over esp the more north you are.

Reading Frosties regular run down, its amazing in just a few days how different his run down analysis  is.

The only thing we haven't had is a raging south westerly.

Is there a particular driving force that is causing this more so at the moment.

[mushymanrob]

Is it just me or do the models seem to have been very disorganized for  say the 5-10 day period.

Its always highlighted more when you have 500 people plus hanging on every model run.

But when you only have a few it gets missed.

They seen to be coming out with several different ideas.

Again today the GFS and ECM are totally different around the 8 day mark.

We have had mentioned very warm such as 18c to fresh easterlies at 5c and possibly sleet.

Also much has been mentioned that pressure will be much higher than average to Atlantic taking over esp the more north you are.

Reading Frosties regular run down, its amazing in just a few days how different his run down analysis  is.

The only thing we haven't had is a raging south westerly.

Is there a particular driving force that is causing this more so at the moment.

 

yep, i agree, there is huge uncertainty and what is 'likely' this morning, probably wont be by this evening. i like trying to see what lies beyond the 5 day timeframe, but currently it looks very confused to me.

meanwhile its looking rather 'normal', with some very nice times when the strengthening sun is out

[knocker]

yep, i agree, there is huge uncertainty and what is 'likely' this morning, probably wont be by this evening. i like trying to see what lies beyond the 5 day timeframe, but currently it looks very confused to me.

meanwhile its looking rather 'normal', with some very nice times when the strengthening sun is out

 

Yes there is no great stability with the anomalies at the moment although they more or less do agree on Alaskan and mid Atlantic ridges, NE Canada vortex and a Scandinavian trough. Thus a fairly benign surface analysis of HP mid Atlantic with pretty reasonable weather over the UK.

 

The est ecm tending to broad area of lower heights NW Europe pushing the Atlantic HP south hinting at more unsettled weather. I think probably Paddy Mullins at Cheltenham a safer bet.

 

Charts courtesy weatherbell

Edited March 11, 2015 by knocker

[Frosty.]

6z brings a wintry spell in FI, especially further north.

[winterof79]

GFS had this chart back on the 7th for Sunday the 22nd.Not unlike todays 06z, not bad if it anywhere near verifys.Heights to build over Greenland?

 

ECM going down that route.No early spring warmth on offer yet.

 

The 06Z GFS is a cold run to be honest from as early as 60z and with snow flurries from the East and the wind staying that way out to 192z

 

Edited March 11, 2015 by winterof79

[winterof79]

The GEFS have a definite signal of heights to our north/west with low heights to our East or South East.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=240  

All very interesting to see if it could be cold enough for a little late winter.

Edited March 11, 2015 by winterof79

[Captain Shortwave]

GFS had this chart back on the 7th for Sunday the 22nd.Not unlike todays 06z, not bad if it anywhere near verifys.Heights to build over Greenland?

C__Data_Users_DefApps_AppData_INTERNETEXPLORER_Temp_Saved Images_gfsnh-0-372.png

C__Data_Users_DefApps_AppData_INTERNETEXPLORER_Temp_Saved Images_gfsnh-0-264.png

 

ECM going down that route.No early spring warmth on offer yet.

Actually the ECM temperature predictions have temperatures in the low to mid teens from day 7 to day 10

Even a briefly southerly with very mild 850s for a time before the pattern becomes cyclonic

 

 

 

The ECM is too far west with the trough likely to drop west of the UK or over the UK at best from there, so either a flow between the south and west albeit rather cool eventually with plenty of heavy showers or a UK low with wintry potential for the north and the west where the cold air could manage to get into the UK (this is of course if the ECM is even right at the end of its run).

 

That said it is very hard to get confidence at the output given the stark differences at 7 days out.

ECM

Where as the GFS shows this

Chalk and cheese to be honest.

 

Worth also mentioning that the ECM was one of the mildest solutions, whilst the GFS was the coldest member of its suite, it's poor constency is actually shown in the temperature graph above as the 00z GFS op was one of the mildest solutions as well which is a stark contrast to the 06z. So it is hard to gauge where we go, both the GFS and ECM ens means do show a northerly developing into week 2, though the 850s suggest a lot of variation in the theme and hence it is hard to get much confidence at the moment. This reflected in the lack of consistent anomaly charts too.

 

As for spring warmth, these has been some pleasant and very mild weather over the past week, especially in southern areas. That sets to end with today being the last day really before a brief unsettled spell before the winds veer easterly and bring grey and drizzly weather to many.

 

Edit - Perturbations 15 and 17 are good ones

Edited March 11, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[Summer Sun]

Quite a change from GFS between the 06z and 12z for mid next week with the high persisting

 

06z

 

 

12z

 

 

ECM 00z

 

 

Cool and quite cloudy next week maybe cold enough for some snow at times on the Scottish mountains and high ground in northern England but on the whole temps too high for snow but suppressed by cloud cover on an easterly flow

 

Edited March 11, 2015 by Summer Sun

[Eugene]

The GEFS have a definite signal of heights to our north/west with low heights to our East or South East.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=240  

All very interesting to see if it could be cold enough for a little late winter.

 

 

It won't be cold enough, looking disappointingly cool and cloudy from the east next week on GFS 12Z, very wet this friday as a front stalls over central areas.

 

GFS 12Z is very chilly for the weekend bringing in some -5C uppers, max of only 5C on Saturday with dull conditions, its going to feel brrrrrrrr.

Edited March 11, 2015 by Eugene

[Summer Sun]

A bit of everything from GEM this afternoon

 

Firstly we have an easterly flow

 

 

That fairly quickly shifts back to a west / south westerly as low pressure tracks just north of Scotland so that should help temperatures to recover somewhat and helping lift the cloud

 

 

We then get a northerly blast at the end of its run with the high back out west in its familiar position

 

Edited March 11, 2015 by Summer Sun

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z mean indicates a risk of wintry weather during the second half of March, cold enough for snow, at least on high ground. This weekend and most of next week also looks like it could be rather cold with fresh SEly winds.

[Summer Sun]

ECM sticking to its guns with the high building in quite strongly next week cutting off the east to SE'ly flow and setting up a light north to north easterly then a westerly which allows temperature to recover after a chilly start

 

 

Day 9 still hinting at a northerly, day 9 is of course the solar eclipse wouldn't it just be sods law its a cloudy day

 

Edited March 11, 2015 by Summer Sun

[Frosty.]

Hope the ecm is right about this, I'm a coldie but I want some early spring warmth now, I would like to see the Azores high build in next week and bring milder, sunnier conditions.I mean, who would want chilly, dull drizzly weather? incidentally, there is zero mention from the met office of a colder spell beyond mid month, actually temperatures are expected to return to normal after a chilly blip this weekend and early next week.

Edited March 11, 2015 by Frosty.

[Captain Shortwave]

No Greenland high on the ECM tonight

Another pulse of cold air goes down into the States with the Azores high forced back towards the UK, a brief chillier blast would be the result but most likely a few rain showers and some overnight frosts. At the moment this coming weekend looks the closest to any wintry weather in the form of patchy sleet or drizzle. Things could change with a lot of uncertainty upstream.

[Frosty.]

A decent end to the Ecm 12z tonight with the Azores high building in again. Hope we see plenty of the Azores high throughout the summer too.

[ANYWEATHER]

Grey, cold and cloudy sums up the weather in the time frame to T+96hrs .Pressure builds but gives the Uk some very drab conditions. After that time frame, well, May as well ask a friend   :rofl:  

Edited March 11, 2015 by ANYWEATHER

[Frosty.]

It's a real pity it's come to this, most of the well known contributors have long since left the building, luckily there are a few of us left to keep the model output discussion alive. I guess if we all went into hibernation, there would be nothing to read at all so hats off to those who continue to spare their valuable time.

As for latest output, I hope upon hope the Ecm 12z is the way forward next week with the building and rebuilding of the Azores high. I have admitted I despise the Azores high in winter as it usually cuts off our wintry potential but in spring, summer and early autumn I love it. :-)

[damianslaw]

Far too much uncertainty at the moment to call with any confidence likely events as we enter second half of the month proper. It remains a changeable outlook with no locked in pattern despite a robust pressure building over scandi over the next few days, all models show it sinking but then offer various scenarios with a common theme for the azores high to ridge back NE but not robustly enough to kill off the advances of the atlantic, whilst at the same time we see height rises over Greenland and development of a deep trough over NE USA with energy advected more into the southern arm of the jet - the end result could very well be a cyclonic messy set up with the UK caught up in the battle lines..

[johnholmes]

It's a real pity it's come to this, most of the well known contributors have long since left the building, luckily there are a few of us left to keep the model output discussion alive. I guess if we all went into hibernation, there would be nothing to read at all so hats off to those who continue to spare their valuable time.

As for latest output, I hope upon hope the Ecm 12z is the way forward next week with the building and rebuilding of the Azores high. I have admitted I despise the Azores high in winter as it usually cuts off our wintry potential but in spring, summer and early autumn I love it. :-)

 

It happens every year Frosty, not that the prospect of a Scandinavian high is anything to look at with enthusiasm at this time of year. The eastern side of any hills is likely to be on the 'raw' side if it verifies and the anomaly charts seem to suggest that it could well do so, at least NOAA does, the other 2 are less sure of this. The change over season, now or autumn, are always even more difficult to predict than in mid summer or mid winter really. Too many major changes as the seasons switch I guess. Some of us will remain as we have a year round interest in weather rather than just one sort, be that bitter cold and snow or summer heat and thunderstorms. I like both types, in moderation.

[Cheshire Freeze]

GFS seemingly wants to go all 2013 on us. Beautiful synoptics and it's just a shame it wasn't Jan 11th rather than March 11th!

Still, some wintry activity can't be ruled out if we can get the perfect synoptics (an airmass from the NE)

Edited March 11, 2015 by CreweCold

[Frosty.]

The 18z shows temperatures really pegged back this weekend, cold air encroaching from the east on Saturday and continuing into next week, especially further north with mainly cloudy skies and mist, light rain and drizzle, really horrible weather but the south briefly turns much milder and sunnier, this is so different to the ecm with no Azores high build, hope this is wrong. Later next week does look brighter but with frosty nights under clear skies and even some snow in Scotland, mainly on higher ground..hoping the Azores friendly ecm has this nailed.

[Captain Shortwave]

Model output at day 6

ECM

Linked heights between the Azores and Eastern Europe, core surface heights over the UK. This develops further into a UK high at day 7. Day 10 does show promise of a colder snap developing though.

 

UKMO

Similar to the ECM but a little flatter

 

GFS

Easterly flow with rain in the south at times

 

GEM

Similar to the ECM and UKMO. The GEM shows no cold weather developing after the brief easterly this weekend. The heights are lower over Greenland than on the rest of the output.

 

The GFS looks on its own again this morning with the other models showing the Azores high being more influential, this caused by things upstream as 3 of the models show a deep trough exiting the States whilst the GFS has a series of slow moving cut-off lows.

Edited March 12, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 00z continues to build on the intensifying azores high theme next week leading to very pleasant surface conditions with long sunny spells and light winds, pleasantly mild by day but cold nights with widespread frosts. The second half of next week would be lovely if this or similar verifies.

Edited March 12, 2015 by Frosty.

[March Blizzard]

GFS seemingly wants to go all 2013 on us. Beautiful synoptics and it's just a shame it wasn't Jan 11th rather than March 11th!

Still, some wintry activity can't be ruled out if we can get the perfect synoptics (an airmass from the NE)

It's not just the time of year, but the fact we have seen such a mild European winter this year. March 11 2013 was plenty cold but that was coming off the back of a cold(er) UK/European winter so the chances of wintry weather appearing on our shores was greater regardless of the time of year.

Of course I get what you are saying, though. Your best chance of cold is probably always in January, all things considered.

[IDO]

It is now down to D5-6 the phasing period where the HP cell from the SW makes its way into our vicinity. The models are in agreement on its placement but they are currently showing variance from there:

 

  

 

By D7 they have all handled that HP cell differently:

 

  

 

The GFS Control does not help as it has for 2 runs now gone in a different direction. A brief wintry few days followed by a return to zonal:

 

 

In fact looking at the GEFS and it is clear that the GFS suite after D5 still has different clusters of outcomes on the table as the pressure graph highlights:

 

 

The GFS has been struggling badly the last few days.

 

In the shorter term the hi res WRF model has the front slightly further west tomorrow and as expected the SE looks like missing out on the rain again. As the front stalls against the block the colder air may turn that front into a wintry mix for higher ground:

 

 GFS misses the SE as well now: 

 

Then settled for 3-4 days with the E/SE feeling cold in the easterly. After that possibilities of a transient wintry spell (GFS Cluster), HP (GEM HP from D2-D10 & ECM) or a messy mix of HP and LP in a slow moving flow (GFS op)

 

Looking at the D16 charts on the GEFS FWIW and there is very little of interest for a further burst of mild Spring weather but the over amplified GEFS suite of yesterday have now been toned down significantly, so a late winter pattern is also absent.