Summer 2015

[Wildswimmer Pete]

The last few summers haven't been predominantly north-westerly at all. In fact they were actually more easterly in nature (aside from August 2014), as evidenced by the rainfall and sunshine characteristics. Indeed, the sunshine and rainfall anomalies in 2014 are contrary to what this summer will no doubt show.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/anomacts/2013/14/2013_14_Sunshine_Anomaly_1981-2010.gif

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/anomacts/2014/14/2014_14_Sunshine_Anomaly_1981-2010.gif

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/anomacts/2013/14/2013_14_Rainfall_Anomaly_1981-2010.gif

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/anomacts/2014/14/2014_14_Rainfall_Anomaly_1981-2010.gif

 

Here near to the east coast, the last two summers were characterised by a lack of high maxima due to the persistent onshore breeze. This summer (and indeed 2015 as a whole so far) has seen the very unusual pattern of consistently above average maxima and below average minima due to the lack of easterly winds. Indeed, we haven't had any fog here since 23rd April, highly unusual for somewhere 7 miles from the North Sea, usually sea fret is a constant annoyance.

Perhaps I should slightly modify my previous statements - my location seems to have suffered persistent polar maritime or even polar airmass encroachment which here usually arrives on winds originating from the northern quarter.  The result is the same - clear, chilly nights followed by a clear dawn, however by the time most of us who have our breakfasts the grey lid of infill has already slammed down.  The cloud then melts away around teatime ready for another cloudless, cold night.  Next day? Rinse and repeat.

 

I'm an engineer so suspicious of statistics - I only trust what I see and can actually measure.  Likewise my weather observations over the past six decades are based on what I can see through the window and go out and measure (a long time before AWS' came on the scene). I previously mentioned 50 years but I forgot my age, I've been observing since well before my 10th birthday.

[conor123]

The persistent northwesterly has only really been a pest throughout this summer. Last summer we only really had it in earnest during the second half of August and the year before that on even fewer occasions. 2012 was predominantly from a southwesterly quarter with August featuring more from the southeast.

 

Having just sat in the garden in what has been virtually unbroken sunshine, I can notice the lack of strength in the sun compared to even just a month ago. Very pleasant to be out in nonetheless.

Been the main nightmare here this spring/summer/year as we don't get the sun from it here to at least get some garden time, literally will turn overcast here around 9am and stay that way till 7pm and by then it's down to the low teen's, those ruddy North Westerlies even ruined the winter here! every time it snowed mild upper's came blaring through the Cheshire Gap hours later and washed it away 

[JeffC]

Well I'm sat in the southern lake district, and we've just about managed the second bbq of the year, although rain stopped play at one point.

Everybody has decamped indoors because it's bloody freezing! Fire pit going and at least it's dry but tbh this summer is a dud!

I'm generally a coldie, owt above 25c and I'm moaning, but come on 2015, make an effort!

Edited August 15, 2015 by JeffC

[mushymanrob]

The problems with our summer have been the cold pool of water in the Atlantic, diminishing sunspot activity and gulf stream disruption caused by el nino mushy. Also we've had a big ice melt as well causing even more sluggishness with the jet stream positioning.

 

im not sure about that, ..

[seaside 60]

I do think the, what appears to be colder nights over all this summer have skewed the average temps.

Respectively here and  much more in many places.

[cheese]

Someone mentioned the lack of fog recently.. and I'm struggling to remember the last time we had any here. There are usually many times when the day starts off foggy but clears by mid-late morning, but this year? I can't think of a single occasion where that happened. Even in July 2013 we had such days.

 

Not that I'm complaining - I don't mind fog in autumn or winter but I hate it in summer.

[hillbilly]

Another very sunny day. August is now well on course to be the best month of summer 2015. It has already been vastly superior to June in my neck of the woods and is now surpassing July, and we are only half way through it!

 

I also think the long range models have done very well this year. They were consistently signalling a warmer end to summer, which now seems to be the case.

Not far away here in the pennines and not one glimmer of the sun all day,max 15 deg,summer 2015 continues !!

[damianslaw]

Whilst not a bad weekend overall, in the end it didn't live up to some of the promise it was showing a couple of days in advance. Lots of cloud throughout and temps very disappointing stuck around 17-19 degree mark, below par for time of year. Chilly evenings as well, and a sporadic showery outbursts yesterday. The lacklustre summer of 2015 continues.. its  turning into a major damp squib.

[stainesbloke]

Someone mentioned the lack of fog recently.. and I'm struggling to remember the last time we had any here. There are usually many times when the day starts off foggy but clears by mid-late morning, but this year? I can't think of a single occasion where that happened. Even in July 2013 we had such days.

 

Not that I'm complaining - I don't mind fog in autumn or winter but I hate it in summer.

It's been blowing a gale most of this year so that's probably the reason we've not had any fog. It is a very Autumnal weather type which I like in the colder months too. According to a very old weather book I have, fog in summer (inland) heralds a heat wave? Is this true?

[Summer of 95]

Looking likely all three months will end up below average here, unless the second half of August can produce something special. What has made it worse was the complete lack of heat in the spring as well, particularly May which failed to reach 20C once.

The statistic which really damns summer 2015 is that it has produced more sub 5C minima than 25C+ maxima. Not even any of the 2007-2012 lot managed that.

[John Badrick]

Looking likely all three months will end up below average here, unless the second half of August can produce something special. What has made it worse was the complete lack of heat in the spring as well, particularly May which failed to reach 20C once.

The statistic which really damns summer 2015 is that it has produced more sub 5C minima than 25C+ maxima. Not even any of the 2007-2012 lot managed that.

So following the below average trend, and the fact it has been worse than 2007-2012 summers, this winter could be sothing special

[cheeky_monkey]

So following the below average trend, and the fact it has been worse than 2007-2012 summers, this winter could be sothing special

Depends where you live..the south east certainly hasn't had a below average summer..the last half of June all of July and August have been very similar often warm often relatively sunny and very dry.

[Nick L]

Depends where you live..the south east certainly hasn't had a below average summer..the last half of June all of July and August have been very similar often warm often relatively sunny and very dry.

 

Yep, after a brief period of rather cold conditions at the end of July, much of August has seen very usable and pleasant weather, like most of the summer around here.

[Ravelin]

So following the below average trend, and the fact it has been worse than 2007-2012 summers, this winter could be sothing special

 

Well if the current summer's trend for Scotland continues into winter it's going to be a stonking one up here....cue mild and wet.

Edited August 17, 2015 by Ravelin

[Summer of 95]

So following the below average trend, and the fact it has been worse than 2007-2012 summers, this winter could be sothing special

You'd think so, but then during that period only December 2010 really qualified as "anything special". That cold pool in the Atlantic should really give lower winter temps, but I'm sure the British climate will find a way around it. Just like last winter, lots of cold synoptics but for some reason no cold temperatures. Watch all the snow go to America, the Middle East, Greece etc while we get months of rain.

Yet again I'm staring at a blanket of featureless grey cloud after it was sunny at 9am. What is wrong with this summer, even dry conditions can't be warm and sunny?

Edited August 17, 2015 by Summer of 95

[Mokidugway]

It will turn into a hot tub I time for winter ..

[weatherguru14]

what happened to the warm weather predicted by John Hammond late last week?? not going to happen is it??  lets make a prediction.. Its going to be  88f on the first of January.. More realible forecast..

Im going away at the weekend.. was promosing for a  long while. Now looking  horrendous  I looked on the netweather  for 7 days ahead for Bridlington. 25c on sunday and sunshine.. i will look again later it will have changed .. what is the point in the bbc or anyone making any prediction more than  2 days ahead?? they even get that incorrect..  even today is cloudy.. that wasn't predicted yesterday..rant over..

[I remember Atlantic 252]

tomorrow is going to be wet as well for the midlands, high pressure/dry weather always downgrades, GFS underestimates low pressure in FI all the time

[weatherguru14]

have you seen some of the long range forecasts being thrown out by the GFS..  massives of heatwaves all the way into the beginning of September,. i saw one chart  that had   80f in places for the start of semptember.. where or where are they getting this information from???  now they are showing  below average this evening..next week  .

[I remember Atlantic 252]

have you seen some of the long range forecasts being thrown out by the GFS..  massives of heatwaves all the way into the beginning of September,. i saw one chart  that had   80f in places for the start of semptember.. where or where are they getting this information from???  now they are showing  below average this evening..next week  .

 

same in winter, always seems to underestimate the Atlantic, or jet stream

[cheese]

Can't believe what the GFS is portraying - suddenly it shows rain all day tomorrow and a max temp no higher than 18C while literally 12 hours ago it was showing nothing of the sort! I'm not happy, in fact I'm quite sad. 

 

I hate living in this country sometimes. Absolutely despise it with all my heart and soul. Hope the entire island sinks into the Atlantic - wouldn't make any difference to the weather anyway. :wallbash: :wallbash: 

[mushymanrob]

... Its only weather..

[cheese]

... Its only weather..

And this is a weather forum.. go figure! If we can't bemoan the lack of nice weather on here, where prey tell can we?

Weather is quite important - that's why so many of us go to Spain and Australia, and many more of us reside in France or spend a large part of the year there. Sunny, warm weather is good for the heart and soul. There was even an article recently saying that many British people don't even get enough Vit D because it's so cloudy!

 

But anyway, I need to vent every now and again - even an optimistic person such as myself can only take so much disappointment before they need a good old moan. You'll probably realise that such rants by myself are very few and far between. They don't called me Richard Aberdeen.

Edited August 17, 2015 by cheese

[stainesbloke]

... Its only weather..

True! I have to strongly remind myself of that this evening, when yet more huge downgrades in the models have caused me to actually feel quite depressed. Am going away for a mini break to the south coast this weekend, it was looking lovely but now I'm more worried about the caravan blowing over! Just awful. Wouldn't mind so much if the models switched back to warm and sunny but they never seem to, do they?

[Mokidugway]

Can't believe what the GFS is portraying - suddenly it shows rain all day tomorrow and a max temp no higher than 18C while literally 12 hours ago it was showing nothing of the sort! I'm not happy, in fact I'm quite sad. 

 

I hate living in this country sometimes. Absolutely despise it with all my heart and soul. Hope the entire island sinks into the Atlantic - wouldn't make any difference to the weather anyway. :wallbash: :wallbash:

I'll cry into my beer for you in LA next week ..