Yorkshire and Lincolnshire - Weather Chat

[NorthYorksWeather]

6 minutes ago, Winter Cold said:

haha, nice one! Knew i wasnt going mad lol

Stunning pics, thats a beautiful sight. That 3rd pic is perfect!!!

Really glad you got a good layer of snow mate

What's your acc on twits?

[Allseasons-Si]

Nice pics there Vizzy

just a shame that we just got a sprinkling of snow here last night,i am soooooo glad i took the trip to Cumbria for my snow fix,well worth the 3 and a 1/2 hour drive up there

as for wed/thu's event,tough one to call but elevation helps although i am 100 asl that could be marginal hay ho,on mornings this week so maybe a trip up the peaks might be on offer thu's afternoon,if I cannot get snow IMBY,then i will go hunting for it

good luck peeps.

[reef]

Measurable lying snow still evades us here, now 37 months and counting. Annoyingly after the snow shower last night (with thunder too) it remained above freezing all night and gradually thawed. Even without that though, it was a mere dusting on cars and pavements.

Another disappointment here unfortunately. It even rained during the day today with -7C 850hPa upper temps.

Edited February 15, 2016 by reef

[LeeSnowFan]

 

Yellow warning of snow

North Yorkshire, West Yorkshire

Issued at:
1041 on Tue 16 Feb 2016

Valid from:
0010 on Wed 17 Feb 2016

Valid to:
1000 on Wed 17 Feb 2016

Outbreaks of rain are likely to turn to sleet or snow in places later on Tuesday night and during Wednesday morning, giving local accumulations. This will be primarily, but not exclusively, over the higher ground where 2 to 6 cm may accumulate, although parts of the warning area may escape. At lower elevations, a slushy cover of up to a centimetre or so is possible. Please be aware of the potential for some difficult driving conditions overnight and into the Wednesday morning rush hour.

The active frontal system which brings rain on Tuesday will increasingly come into contact with colder air, with the likelihood that it will start to turn to sleet or snow in places early on Wednesday. The situation is finely balanced, and the precipitation may remain as rain over parts of the area. This warning is likely to be updated.

[Sara_south_yorks]

A slushy cover of 1cm....sounds fantastic, can't wait! 

In fact that's not even for me...south Yorkshire isn't included in that warning. 

What has happened to our winters. I miss the snow and the frosts too  

[terrier]

Wow a 1cm slushy deposit think I better rush out to asda and stock up on bread and milk. Seriously though that sounds garbage. Hopefully this isn't a new trend in winters ahead. 

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

1 hour ago, LeeSnowFan said:

 

Yellow warning of snow

North Yorkshire, West Yorkshire

Issued at:
1041 on Tue 16 Feb 2016

Valid from:
0010 on Wed 17 Feb 2016

Valid to:
1000 on Wed 17 Feb 2016

Outbreaks of rain are likely to turn to sleet or snow in places later on Tuesday night and during Wednesday morning, giving local accumulations. This will be primarily, but not exclusively, over the higher ground where 2 to 6 cm may accumulate, although parts of the warning area may escape. At lower elevations, a slushy cover of up to a centimetre or so is possible. Please be aware of the potential for some difficult driving conditions overnight and into the Wednesday morning rush hour.

The active frontal system which brings rain on Tuesday will increasingly come into contact with colder air, with the likelihood that it will start to turn to sleet or snow in places early on Wednesday. The situation is finely balanced, and the precipitation may remain as rain over parts of the area. This warning is likely to be updated.

The last sentence is surely the most important in respect of that warning considering it only covers tomorrow morning up until 10am?  This is the front edge snow risk rather than the back edge snow risk surely?

My local forecast suggests that it will be dry up until lunchtime tomorrow, then rain in the afternoon which turns to sleet and then snow as the evening progresses before becoming dry again Thursday morning.

I suspect that if not later today, a further warning will be issued for the back edge snow risk tomorrow morning which will cover the snow risk for tomorrow evening?

Time will tell as always but I will be on lamppost watch tomorrow evening regardless!

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

4 minutes ago, Kentish Snowman said:

The last sentence is surely the most important in respect of that warning considering it only covers tomorrow morning up until 10am?  This is the front edge snow risk rather than the back edge snow risk surely?

My local forecast suggests that it will be dry up until lunchtime tomorrow, then rain in the afternoon which turns to sleet and then snow as the evening progresses before becoming dry again Thursday morning.

I suspect that if not later today, a further warning will be issued for the back edge snow risk tomorrow morning which will cover the snow risk for tomorrow evening?

Time will tell as always but I will be on lamppost watch tomorrow evening regardless!

And as if by magic...

Warning now out for South Yorkshire so everybody gets a piece of the snowy (slushy) action!  

Valid from 20:00 on Wednesday until 10:00 on Thursday

Rain seems likely to turn to sleet and snow in places during Wednesday night across parts of central and southern England, before gradually easing and clearing away southeastwards on Thursday morning. Some places will see rain or sleet rather than snow but at least for some of the higher ground, and more locally at lower elevations, there may be a cover of snow - perhaps a few cm locally. Please be aware of the possibility of localised disruption to travel, and keep up to date with forecasts and warnings, which may well be updated.

[terrier]

Looking at the high res models now. And can't see anything but a rain maybe slushy event for many of us. Think obviously the high peaks and highest parts of the Pennines may do ok. But for anything below a 1500ft looks like a wet rainy mess. 

[LeeSnowFan]

Met Office just posted this on there FB page

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

29 minutes ago, terrier said:

Looking at the high res models now. And can't see anything but a rain maybe slushy event for many of us. Think obviously the high peaks and highest parts of the Pennines may do ok. But for anything below a 1500ft looks like a wet rainy mess. 

I am very confident we will see snow falling, but I feel that any accumulations will be slight, although anywhere above 200 metres should do quite well later on tomorrow evening I feel...

[winterof79]

10 minutes ago, Kentish Snowman said:

I am very confident we will see snow falling, but I feel that any accumulations will be slight, although anywhere above 200 metres should do quite well later on tomorrow evening I feel...

http://en.allmetsat.com/metar-taf/england-wales.php?icao=EGNM

Terrier needs his cup filling If he leaves it out it will fill quicker with snow.

[terrier]

37 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

http://en.allmetsat.com/metar-taf/england-wales.php?icao=EGNM

Terrier needs his cup filling If he leaves it out it will fill quicker with snow.

Think I will leave my cup out I'm partial to a slush puppy lol.

[bryan629]

Putting aside the next 24-48 hrs... 

Sunday is looking pretty good for snow here in Yorkshire and LIncolnshire " Our back yard"

GFS has around -5/6 uppers  but ECM has a degree or so colder... 

By the looks of it its a pretty unstable flow, i hope this upgrades just a tad and the instability move a little further south in the comming runs .

Personally , i really hope that folk in the south get some snow soon so we can put an end to scenes like this one

 

 

 

 

 

[The PIT]

Front seems a bit further south that shown on the models. Rain for most of the day tomorrow turning to Snow during the late afternoon onwards unless it moves through quicker or the rain is light.

[The PIT]

Had a look at the GFS this suggests the rain may turn to Snow late evening onwards.

[Gray-Wolf]

Seeing as I'm off to Hellifield tomorrow I'd suggest the snow will fall along the A65 from 12 'till 1 and then from 7pm until 8.15pm ( and then all melt as soon as I'm home!!!)

[Rob Heselwood]

A cold and frosty morning , but began clouding over quite quickly, and remained dry all day.

Max Temp 6.7C

Wind Chill temp 4.8C

Min Temp -3.6C

Wind Gust 17.3mph West Sou' Westerly

Wind Average 12mph Sou' Westerly

Barometer 1024mb Falling

[fazzafarrand]

Well I am in Normanton and the wet stuff has just arrived and it's not rain at the moment but icy pellets

 

[winterof79]

Put a positive spin on this then

 

 

I can't......

[The PIT]

2 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Put a positive spin on this then

 

 

I can't......

Not showing the cold air dig in. There you go.

[Winter Cold]

Well its all a bit excting and agonising all at once isnt it lol!!! Will it........wont it.....

This time tomorrow we could all be seeing good snow falling or just rain. What a nightmare. I think we need the front to slow and stall a bit more though, BBC graphics still showing it getting past Yorkshire. My worry is that by the time the snow risk comes in the evening that its already beginning to clear through.

Really hope as many of us as possible get a good covering  and I hope its busy in here this time tomorrow!

[summer blizzard]

Optimistic myself.

For anybody on xcweather you can compare the surface flow (winds) and pressure to see that we do have a bit of a convergent flow at the surface which is why the front slows. We can also see that dew points are even now in Yorkshire not far off zero ahead of the front. Once the cold air behind flanks the front then i feel very optimistic that we will see snow and the GFS expects this from about 3pm (although the Met Office warnings suggest anytime from dawn). 

Look at Ireland to see what's happening with the temperature and wind direction. Despite the whole of Ireland being under rain you can see that the cold air is already undercutting behind and temperatures even with a flow off the Atlantic have dropped back 4-5C compared to eastern Ireland.

The key for tomorrow's event is to hope that our surface temperature (currently around 4C) remains relatively low under the initial rain.

[winterof79]

2 hours ago, The PIT said:

Not showing the cold air dig in. There you go.

And by the time it does it will be south of us. The winter is about to start according to the experts on the model thread.

I doubt it seeing as though it ends in two weeks.

 

Quote from Fergie on the model thread:

I'd suggest quite the opposite: the parallel suite Euro4 and UKMO-GM both now generate little snow of note, so it all currently looks a bit less worrying. It's important to note that EC (which in the 00z run offered 5+cm of falling snow e.g. Wilts) has a known tendency to over-generate solid PPN and is thus considered unreliable re amounts being progged. So as it stands, unless there's a major shift back towards the more threatening outcome(s) we saw in some suites earlier today, I'd suspect the snow 'issue' will be gradually toned-down - at least somewhat - in public forecasts. That said, there remains around a 60-90 miles potential error margin E-W in areas that could yet see snow into central-southern England (encompassing from E Wales to E Anglia, and south-south east of those zones). Either way, this set-up will prove a tricky customer up to the wire.

Edited February 16, 2016 by winterof79

[terrier]

22 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

And by the time it does it will be south of us. The winter is about to start according to the experts on the model thread.

I doubt it seeing as though it ends in two weeks.

 

Quote from Fergie on the model thread:

I'd suggest quite the opposite: the parallel suite Euro4 and UKMO-GM both now generate little snow of note, so it all currently looks a bit less worrying. It's important to note that EC (which in the 00z run offered 5+cm of falling snow e.g. Wilts) has a known tendency to over-generate solid PPN and is thus considered unreliable re amounts being progged. So as it stands, unless there's a major shift back towards the more threatening outcome(s) we saw in some suites earlier today, I'd suspect the snow 'issue' will be gradually toned-down - at least somewhat - in public forecasts. That said, there remains around a 60-90 miles potential error margin E-W in areas that could yet see snow into central-southern England (encompassing from E Wales to E Anglia, and south-south east of those zones). Either way, this set-up will prove a tricky customer up to the wire.

Looks like my slush puppy cup may become a rainy mess then winterof79 lol. What a poor excuse for winter. Roll on Spring now. Although they seem to think on mod thread winter is just around the corner into March. But haven't we heard that all winter ;0)