Model Output Discussion - 3rd May Onwards 00z--->

[knocker]

What can we expect for the Bank Holiday? At the moment, to my untutored eye, it appears to rest on how quickly we can relegate the upper trough south into Europe and nudge the HP in from the west. I would say it's finely poised.

Chart weatherbell

 

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON SATURDAY MAY 16TH 2015.

 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A Westerly airflow will cover the UK today and tomorrow with High pressure to the SW. Some showers in the flow will affect Northern areas at times.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif 

 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable with some showers at times especially over the North and East but spells of dry and fine weather too for all. Generally rather cool, especially by night.

 

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream is currently blowing West to East across Northern Britain. Over the next few days Low pressure from the North changes the flow to a SE one across western Britain down into Europe with the UK falling on the cooler side of the Jet as the pattern of a trough or troughs across the UK is maintained for some considerable time.

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational this morning shows Low pressure moving SE down over the North Sea early next week carrying a band of rain followed by cool and showery weather afterwards. then soon after midweek a short drier interlude for the South is replaced by a second pool of cool and unstable air movng down from the NW and lasting through the Whitsun holiday weekend. In the extended period pressure patterns become more slack and non determinate with a slow shift of the cool and showery weather away from the UK in the wake of a switch of wind to the South or SW very late in the run with warmer conditions moving North from the South or SW.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif 

 

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run shows good support to the operational run this morning with the next 10 days weather fairly identical in type with just small nuances surrounding the distribution of rain and showers over the period day to day. late in the run some divergence is indicated with this run showing High pressure building strongly in from the West in two weeks time with dry and warmer weather for most by then as a result.

 

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters once again are High pressure biased for two weeks time today with the balance of emphasis having a High centre just to the West of the UK or over the NW with less than 30% showing anything more Atlantic Low pressure based and even this most likely affecting just the NW rather than elsewhere.

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

 

UKMO UKMO this morning shows a cool and changeable period for much of next week as two separate Low pressure areas move down from the NW, one early in the working week and one in time for the Bank Holiday weekend, each bringing their own version of cool weather with showers and more persistent rain for a time on Monday and probably again towards Thursday and Friday..

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a cool and blustery West then NW airflow next week around Low pressure to the NE of the UK with troughs bringing rain on Monday and then a cool and showery NW flow. Further troughs are shown to be poised to the West and NW of the UK by the 120hr frame probably affecting the UK over the start of the Holiday weekend.

 

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

 

GEM GEM this morning also shows two separate Low pressure zones moving down from the NW over the 10 day period. The first will bring rain Monday and then several days of showers in a cool NW flow. The showers look like dying out in the South midweek ahead of a new Low slipping SE towards the Holiday weekend and becoming slow moving and slack across the North Sea late in the run delivering the risk of cool and sometimes heavy showers throughout the Bank Holiday weekend.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

 

NAVGEM NAVGEM follows a similar trend with the cool theme maintained throughout next week and the Bank Holiday with showers in places as Low pressure lies just to the NE and a light Northerly drift lies down over the UK. A High pressure ridge lies close to the West though by the end of the run.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

 

ECM ECM is just a little more optimistic longer term this morning at least for Southern areas over the Holiday weekend. It too shows a very cool and showery period next week as the first Low moves SE down across the North Sea towards midwek with several days of heavy showers and sunny intervals in a cool wind. The second Low's trajectory is much further North on this run and only influences the North in any large way where showers continue. In the South under higher pressure and lighter winds a lot of dry weather would likely prevail in this runs setup with just well spaced and lighter showers down here as a result though still never overly warm.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart  maintains the stance of a slack Northerly or NW flow with sunshine and some showers in temperatures close to or a little below average generally. The South and West closer to the effects of a ridge to the SW should hold the driest and least showery weather.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

 

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The model output trends toward rather cool conditions in Northerly winds slackening later but maintaining temperatures at best average and sometimes on the cool side especially by night..

 

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.7 pts followed by UKM at 96.0 pts and GFS at 95.2. At 5 days ECM  leads UKMO with 85.7 over UKMO's 84.2 pts with GFS at 82.3. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 52.1 pts over GFS's 51.2 pts. Then at Day 10 GFS gains superiority at 34.1 pts over ECM at 33.3. 

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png 

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig

 

 

MY THOUGHTS Once again this morning it's all eyes to the NW for our weather over the coming two weeks as High pressure lies out to the SW and a cool and often showery feed of winds blow down across the UK. Next week looks particularly shower for the first few days with some heavy showers with hail and thunder locally but some compensatory sunny intervals between too but with temperatures certainly nothing to write home about especially at night. Then a respite looks possible across the South for a time soon after midweek before the chance of a resurgence of Low pressure moving down from Northern latitudes towards Scotland has a fair amount of support again this morning. This would have the effect of upsetting the Bank Holiday weather with showers or rain at times especially early in the weekend in a continuing cool feeling airflow. The Southwest always look like seeing the best weather over the two week period with the least showers and some daytine sunshine more enhanced here despite never feeling overly warm in the nagging NW breeze. ECM is the beacon of hope for this morning as it doesn't really support the second Low as close keeping it's effects more towards the North only and meaning the South at least see a pleasant period over the Holiday weekend at least in lighter and less chilly west winds and only very occasional showers. So all in all it's still a case of waiting for temperatures to achieve summer levels as it looks like they won't in the next few weeks with the warm spell of mid April likely for me at least still holding the record of the highest temperatures so far this year even by the end of this run. having said that if you can avod the showers and cool, breezes the sunshine between the showers will feel pleasant enough and should enable most outdoor events to continue unhindered even that means I'm clutching at straws from within rather uninspiring late May charts. 

 

Next update from 08:00 Sunday May 17th 2015

[bluearmy]

Well it doesn't show up on either the GEFS or the ECM anomaly at that range both are tending towards the NOAA 8-14.

I disagree knocker. The ECM ens anolomy back end week 2 is showing higher heights over n Europe. Naefs the same. Johns 6/10 day operational means won't pick up anything yet. The NOAA cpc 8/14 will also not show yet as they are means from T192 - T336. I don't think anyone indicates anything occurring before later week 2. I may have been a bit previous in an earlier post if I said through week 2. Should have said later in week 2. Cloud's chart was T360 which is the end week 2. A potentially better end to May in the offing.

[mushymanrob]

Some great weather from late next week if the ECM and GFS  are to be believed

 

... sorry, but i dont believe them. nor does it look overly dry either..

these charts suggest a northwesterly upper flow for most of the rest of May. and ridging will be brief, and atlantic systems look like theyll track nw/se across the uk.

the rest of may looks cool, showery/wet at times, breezy with overnight frost risks when we are on the wrong side of the polar front. still, the air quality will be good and fresh, no continental importing of tree pollen nor humidity and the sun is of course strong.

[Polar Maritime]

The GFS continues to show an unsettled cool N/W flow this morning, With only a hint of Pressure rise towards Months end.

 

Edited May 16, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[Milhouse]

The GFS continues to show an unsettled cool N/W flow this morning, With only a hint of Pressure rise towards Months end.

 

 

Its clearly one of the more unsettled options though against the mean

 

[johnholmes]

Its clearly one of the more unsettled options though against the mean

 

 

 

 

nevertheless it fits more closely with the anomaly charts quoted by mushy above and from me yesterday. The upper pattern, in my view, will be closer to their ideas, all 3 that is NOAA, ECMWF and GFS outputs than the 4x GFS or 2x ECMWF synoptic outputs. This is proved time and again over the last 4 or 5 years. I can count, not quite on the fingers of one hand, how many times the synoptic models have been more accurate (upper air wise) than the anomaly charts. It does happen but about 3:100. The other way round is about 70:100.

[knocker]

I disagree knocker. The ECM ens anolomy back end week 2 is showing higher heights over n Europe. Naefs the same. Johns 6/10 day operational means won't pick up anything yet. The NOAA cpc 8/14 will also not show yet as they are means from T192 - T336. I don't think anyone indicates anything occurring before later week 2. I may have been a bit previous in an earlier post if I said through week 2. Should have said later in week 2. Cloud's chart was T360 which is the end week 2. A potentially better end to May in the offing.

 

I wasn't disagreeing with the height rises over NE Europe but with the trough to the SW on Cloud's chart whereas the GEFs and ECM have HP. This would impact on direction of flow and temps.

Edited May 16, 2015 by knocker

[Captain Shortwave]

I think the general pattern is well agreed on, it is just a case of how far east the Atlantic ridge is during week 2, some models hold it in the Atlantic, some like the ECM (would also add the GFS/ECM ens to this) bring the ridge close enough to give dry weather.

I would add that the JMA/CFS monthlies do suggest a drier and less cool spell during week 2 which would make the ECM solution viable I think.

 

At the moment it is the ECM vs the UKMO/GFS/GEM at around day 6. The first test for the upgraded ECM model, if it is right then it will be the first scalp for the model and would mean that conditions would turn dry from around Thursday onward (except for occasional rain in the north at times).

[bluearmy]

I think the general pattern is well agreed on, it is just a case of how far east the Atlantic ridge is during week 2, some models hold it in the Atlantic, some like the ECM (would also add the GFS/ECM ens to this) bring the ridge close enough to give dry weather.

I would add that the JMA/CFS monthlies do suggest a drier and less cool spell during week 2 which would make the ECM solution viable I think.

At the moment it is the ECM vs the UKMO/GFS/GEM at around day 6. The first test for the upgraded ECM model, if it is right then it will be the first scalp for the model and would mean that conditions would turn dry from around Thursday onward (except for occasional rain in the north at times).

The ECM ens spread is not in agreement with the op. Reflects the largest cluster bringing the depression se

Edited May 16, 2015 by bluearmy

[johnholmes]

I disagree knocker. The ECM ens anolomy back end week 2 is showing higher heights over n Europe. Naefs the same. Johns 6/10 day operational means won't pick up anything yet. The NOAA cpc 8/14 will also not show yet as they are means from T192 - T336. I don't think anyone indicates anything occurring before later week 2. I may have been a bit previous in an earlier post if I said through week 2. Should have said later in week 2. Cloud's chart was T360 which is the end week 2. A potentially better end to May in the offing.

 

My only comment on what you suggest ba is that the anomaly charts are showing the positive heights edging east. This morning, as yesterday, there is a difference in the EC-GFS outputs with EC showing the ridge more in ascendancy from the W/NW and GFS keeping the trough as the main feature. Interesting though to see how it plays out. In my view little change out to day 10 and from then out is when there is some probability of change but low at the moment in my view.

 

add to that, the 8-14 NOAA anomaly shows a more westerly upper flow but still with a trough not far east of the UK with no sign of any ridging yet. The only addition to that is that the +ve heights are being shifted, roughly ESE from their 6-10 area and decreased. Is that an indication of heights eventually rising over Europe which you refer to. Not sure at all which is why I suggest that option is marked low for me at the moment.

Edited May 16, 2015 by johnholmes

[Captain Shortwave]

The ECM ens spread is not in agreement with the op. Reflects the largest cluster bringing the depression se

image.jpg

Fair enough, the surface charts looks a little more settled, though it could be the drier options are skewing the chart.

[summer blizzard]

Looks like a more zonal flow leaving the US which may push the Azores High towards the UK in the 8-14 day timeframe however it looks more of a N-S solution than anything substantial.

[Summer Sun]

UKMO now on board for a potential rise in pressure later next week, the first half of the week will see plenty of showers just about anywhere but for the 2nd half of the week we could see these becoming less frequent.  Northern Scotland remains prone to showers or longer spells of rain and breezier conditions as here your closer to the low

 

 

EDIT

 

ECM also shows a rise in pressure from Thursday

 

Edited May 16, 2015 by Summer Sun

[Milhouse]

Well the ECM once again looks the pick of the models for a return to something more settled and pleasantly warm next weekend. The southwest would fair best id imagine with the warmth taking a little longer to spread east to all parts.

 

[049balt]

Dry and warm, at last.

 

http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.html

[knocker]

A quick look at the GEFS and looking quite good as the ridge nudges a tad further east and the trough south. And this looks quite fruitful into the Ext period.

Charts weatherbell

Edited May 16, 2015 by knocker

[Captain Shortwave]

Not a bad set of charts tonight, the GFS and ECM now agree on a more settled spell developing from around day 5 

ECM

GFS

 

The UKMO also heading the same way 

 

Beyond this, not spectacular heat but looking at 850s climbing to around the 4-6C mark then the low twenties would be possible quite widely so some pleasant spring warmth, especially if the sun comes out for any decent period of time. The main reason for the change appears to be low heights re-organising around the Greenland locale developing a more typical zonal jet and hence allowing the Atlantic ridge to collapse near to the UK and Europe.

Edited May 16, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[mushymanrob]

i wouldnt get too excited by the ecm 00z

@day7

the 6-10 day anomaly chart doesnt allow for the building of high pressure over us in that time frame

 

which makes the gfs 00z more likely to be the solution we end up with



the high looks close enough to our west, to prevent toppling systems hitting us directly, but this could happen IF the western high gives way or receeds.

 

Edited May 17, 2015 by mushymanrob

[knocker]

Yes Mushy still no racing certainty regarding the upper air pattern and 'what will be the influence of the trough'. Having said that I'll take the GEFS solution and I still feel this the more likely scenario. Then what do I know.

Chart weatherbell

 

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON SUNDAY MAY 17TH 2015.

 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A Westerly airflow will cover the UK today with a cold front moving SE across the British Isles tonight and at first tomorrow followed by a showery WNW flow in association with low pressure close to northern Scotland later tomorrow..

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif 

 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable with some showers at times especially over the North and East but spells of dry and fine weather too for all especially later.

 

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream is currently blowing West to East across the UK. Over the next few days it moves a little South and weakens as a UK trough over the UK moves away slowly East by late week. Then the weakened flow gradually returns to running West to East over the UK later in week 2 as a UK trough develops again.

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational this morning shows Low pressure moving SE down over the North Sea in the next few days carrying a band of rain followed by cool and showery weather afterwards. Then soon after midweek a ridge of High pressure from High pressure to the SW ensures a drier spell in the South while a new Low well to the North of Scotland brings a new trough SE down across all areas late in the week with damp weather for a time then dry weather again for the South. The Bank Holiday weekend looks set fair for many areas under a ridge from the Azores High and this extends into the second week too before the slow return of Atlantic Low pressure and rain at times for all returns late in the period. 

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif 

 

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run shows good agreement to that shown by the operational this morning with a ridge of High pressure stretching across the UK at times after the cool and showery first half of this week to bring fine and dry weather for many. Cloud amounts look rather variable at times and a little rain at times is conceivable over the North but it looks like the High will continue to expand it's influence though the Bank holiday weekend and through week 2 as well.

 

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters show a roughly 60/40% split in favour of fine High pressure based weather over a NW flow from the other 40%. This means that most areas look like being dry and fine in two weeks if the 60% of members are to be believed under High pressure just out to the SW or over the North of the UK. The 40% cluster would bring a cooler NW flow with scattered showers chiefly in the North and East.

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

 

UKMO UKMO this morning shows a cool and changeable start to the coming week with sunshine and showers before a ridge introduces dry and bright conditions over the South soon after midweek. A weak cold front brings a band of rain South late in the week followdd by a scattering of showers again before pressure is shown to build strongly from the SW for the Bank Holiday Weekend with likely fine and dry conditions developing for then.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a complex trough moving SE across the Uk tonight and tomorrow with a showery WNW flow following to all and lasting several days before a ridge develops across the South while weaker fronts affect the North by the end of the working week.

 

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

 

GEM GEM this morning is not quite so optimistic for the second half of it's run but in full agreement to the conditions shown by other output over the coming 5 days. It then fails to build High pressure is as strongly as the other output and as a result the UK remains affected by chilly NW winds with rain and shower bearing troughs pushing SE across the UK at times in the continuing cool weather.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

 

NAVGEM NAVGEM too is a little more tentative as well in it's build of pressure at the end of the week with the changeable weather of the week to come slowly giving way to drier and bright weather across the South under a ridge next weekend but an Atlantic front crossing East over the North would probably bring cloudy and damp weather to northern areas next Sunday and rather cloudy weather as well at least to the South.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

 

ECM ECM is much less like UKMO this morning in building High pressure across at least Southern Britain next weekend ensuring a reasonable weekend down here at least. The North will be a litle more disturbed with weak troughs crossing East on Bank Holiday Monday with a litle rain, this then moving slowly South to Southern areas too on Tuesday before the run ends with High pressure having built back across the South and a traditional North/South split in the weather looking like setting up thereafter.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart  shows a large High North of the Azores stretching a ridge across towards Southern Britain with set fair weather most likely for the South while a Westerly flow across the North is most likely to bring any rain to these areas alone.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

 

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The model output have shifted towards much more influence shown by the Azores High in week 2 first picked up some days ago by the GFS Ensemble pack and extended now across much of the other output too.

 

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.7 pts followed by UKM at 95.9 pts and GFS at 95.2. At 5 days ECM  leads UKMO with 85.8 over UKMO's 83.7 pts with GFS at 82.2. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 51.0 pts over GFS's 50.2 pts. Then at Day 10 GFS gains superiority at 34.1 pts over ECM at 32.5. 

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png 

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig

 

 

MY THOUGHTS Reasons to be much more optimistic about the output this morning which includes the Bank Holiday weekend for many as the previous days output of a cool and very showery NW flow blowing down across the UK at that time have been largely replaced by much more dominance from a ridge of High pressure stretching across the UK from our old friend the Azores or North Atlantic anticyclone through the second week of the outlook. The pattern for this week though is as before with a Low pressure zone pushing SE over the North and NE in the coming days ensuring cool and showery conditions for all for several days following a band of rain tomorrow. Thereafter the second advance of Low pressure from the North has been much muted with the Low holding much further North and as a result just a weak front late in the week looks like bringing damp weather down followed by a more pronounced push of a ridge across the UK nicely timed for the Bank Holiday Weekend which on current thinking should bring quite reasonable weather to many, certainly across the South and while not excessively warm the tempered effects of a Westerly breeze over a Northerly should mean temperatures achieve average levels at least. Then as we look towards the end period of the extended output this morning High pressure looks generally in control with fine and dry weather for many with just the far North at risk of Atlantic fronts brushing by at times and perhaps a cooling NE breeze in the SE. It's hats off to GFS Clusters for showing this scenario first a few days back bucking the charts from the highly respected Euro's then and now shown across nearly all output. So in a one sentence nutshell the next two weeks should see sunshine and showers in cool weather gradually be replaced by drier and somewhat warmer weather through Week 2 with just a little rain at times possible over the North. 

 

Next update from 08:00 Monday May 18th 2015

[johnholmes]

An interesting change on the ECMWF-GFS anomaly outputs this morning, see below. EC in particular makes the upper ridge the main player with GFS still keeping some trough influence. It will be interesting to see of the NOAA 6-10 pickes this up this evening. If so it will be another instance, I think about the 3rd time since the start of last winter, that they have led the NOAA into a change.

That is of course

1) if NOAA follows them

and 2) IF the pattern does change as the EC-GFS seems to suggest.

I continue with my idea that all 3 must be very similar over a 2-3 day period before one can be sure the pattern is as they indicate.

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

[bluearmy]

The gfs op run from the back end of the week which was more Azores ridge orientated, seems to be clos to the money as the weekend runs have emerged. judging by the ECM ens spreads, there seems to be a split on the ens regarding the bank holiday troughing. too early to say that the ops have led the ens on this but as john says, it's not that common if it verifies.

[Milhouse]

I did cast doubt on the extreme GFS 0z yesterday which showed very cool and unsettled conditions persisting throughout the BH weekend and it looks as if i was right to do so. There has been a shift away from unseasonably cool and unseasonal conditions to something more seasonal and typical of late Spring.

 

All the main 3 models are now pointing towards a fine and pleasant spell beginning Thursday and lasting out to roughly Monday, at which point uncertainties creep into the forecast.

[049balt]

We are seeing a very gradual trend to more settled weather, the models are jumping around a bit on the details, but the trend is our friend.