Model Output Discussion - 3rd May Onwards 00z--->

[Summer Sun]

Not a mention of a settled spell in forecasts, have we missed something here?

 

Thats the next thing we need to see happening the only thing we got from the beeb earlier for next weekend (not country file) was showers or longer spells of rain in the north west but high pressure is probably going to be near by the south of the British isles so drier and brighter here

[Frosty.]

Not a mention of a settled spell in forecasts, have we missed something here?

This doesn't look bad at all, the Ecm 12z ensemble mean shows increasing high pressure influence across the southern half of the UK with pleasant late spring conditions.

[knocker]

No definitive answer at T240 from the anomalies tonight.

 

They both have the Canadian vortex and the Scandinavian trough but with different orientations of the latter. The GEFS has it more markedly north/south with ridging to the west of the UK whereas the ECM has a more zonal approach. This will obviously impact on the surface analysis  Having said that in the ext period the ECM is weakening the trough and extending the influence of the HP and surprise, surprise the GEFS isn't keen on that idea. Place your bets.

Charts weatherbell

 

[summer blizzard]

Still no real change over the US from those anomalies. I expect the status quo and a watering down of the Euro.

[lorenzo]

Briefly and having not been around for some time, this elongated Winter dilution of Spring has continued. Continental ridging aside we have not lost the loss of cold stratosphere from the equation. The synoptic evolution of the eQBO as massively outlier to previous years is a new anomaly for all across the weather community.I mean all not just us forum folks, academics, experts and even nore specialists whose post doc studies are purely on the QBO. Simply, this is the most off the grid on record, something has fundamentally altered the deck.

 

It alone should have brought about in combination with El Nino atmospheric base state, a pre-disposition in the atmosphere for more blocked phases, the key question is why not? In an e QBo phase that could be counted against records back to 50s as an outlier i.e peak eQBO phase this season kicks back to Arctic feedbacks on Sea Ice anomalies. 

 

Further to this, over Winter Iceland SO2 degredation of the historical atmospheric condition leaned against analog forecasts.

 

Too much gibberish - simply put, eQBO off the grid, unknown SO2 impact ( beyond scientific scope)* Pinotubo in Chile slayed weather records and 1989 is regularly 'excepted' from climate reworks, due to Chilean Volcano. It may be the case that the volume SO2 output of Holohuran created similar anomaly here.

 

Nino is blooming PAC SSta's show marked anomalies surface bound, and West PAC typhoon cycle tempts on making a new phase this season or cemented on previous, this is vital for circulation anomalies into Autumn, in direct contrast the low ACE across Atlantic is threatened again by Saharan displacement, latterly the gulf stream flow is synoptic.

 

For now predisposition to Scandi blocking written everywhere in GWO and the last storm path drop in of cold is possibly the last of this late Spring / Summer.

 

do we scorch - with Nino Pac ppt - doubtful , once closer will have a guess

 

Attached some of the blockier outlooks from GWO and ECM

 

all the best

 

Sorry for the technical blah tis been a while !

sott

 

Edited May 10, 2015 by lorenzo

[knocker]

How is the GFS handling the expected low on Thursday.

 

At 00z Thurs. it has it just west of Ireland 995mb with rain just into the SW. By 12z it's over Ireland 999mb and rain is into all of England.

 

From hereon it takes a swift turn SE and by 18z is over Plymouth 1004mb and still wet over England and with a NE airflow some quite cold temps in Scotland and the north of E.. It is over central France by 00z Friday en route to being absorbed with the low in N. Italy. Don't believe a word of it really

Charts weatherbell

Edited May 11, 2015 by knocker

[Polar Maritime]

The GFS this morning continues to show a cool N/E flow for the end of the working week. Thereafter the next Low spins in off the Atlantic, Pulling in wet and windy weather especially for the North by the weekend. Into week 2 a long drawn Pm flow takes hold from the N/W so unsettled with temps struggling at best..

 

On a side note it's interesting to note that the Pentagon has decided to use the MET forecasting Models from next year instead of there American Models, Due to our better weather prediction 

 

http://cliffmass.blogspot.co.uk/2015/04/air-force-turns-to-foreign-weather.html

Edited May 11, 2015 by Polar Maritime
Charts posted in reverse order.

[BlueHedgehog074]

Looks as though today will see mostly dry and bright weather towards the South-East, with some showers towards the North-West. Could feel quite cool in some of the showers, too.

Any showers or spells of rain towards the North-West should start to fade tomorrow as the models show a ridge of High Pressure building in from the South-West:

This looks to lead to mostly dry and bright conditions for the UK on Wednesday as that ridge of High Pressure builds over us and towards or North. Best of the warm conditions towards the South-East where temperatures could get into the mid or high-teens:

It does then look as though Thursday will see a little Low Pressure system slide Eastwards or South-Eastwards through the UK underneath the blocking High Pressure to our North:

...which could bring these types of conditions to places...

...Wet and cool weather (especially in that very cool North-Easterly flow for those on the Northern flank of the Low).

Have, however, added a little question mark in the chart for Thursday as there's probably still enough room for the track of the Low Pressure to change a little (although the idea of the Low tracking over, or just to the South of, the UK seems the mostly likely options).

Then some quite good agreement for a ridge of High Pressure to build over the UK (Edit: for Friday) from the West, which should bring some drier weather again for places, particularly towards the Western/South-Western areas. (GFS/ECMWF and UKMO used as examples):

Looking further ahead and the main anomaly charts (NOAA and ECM/GFS) generally illustrate quite a cool picture with an impression of a North-West to South-East tracking jet with some troughing developing to our East at times. This of which could hold up High Pressure to our West or South-West allowing some possible cool North-Westerly flows to occur at times. Particularly across the North. The best of any less unsettled conditions would probably be towards the South-West where the highest anomalies seem to be generally concentrated:

The 8 to 14 day NOAA anomaly chart, though, not buying into much ridging occurring in the Atlantic despite some of the higher than average anomalies it shows to our West/South-West (although could still be rather cool with that West-North-West flow at the 500mb level). So it could be one of those possibilities that models, such as the GFS, are over-amplifying things in Fantasy Island as usual.

If this turns out to be the case, then it looks as though it may be a (little) while to wait before anything particularly Summary shows up.

Edited May 11, 2015 by DiagonalRedLine

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON MONDAY MAY 11TH 2015.

 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A decaying front will move SE across remaining parts of England and Wales through the day followed by another one moving East over Southern England tonight.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif 

 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable with some rain at times especially over the North but spells of dry and fine weather too for all.

 

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream will blow NE across the UK to begin the period before slipping South briefly soon after midweek. It then moves North to blow directly West to East across the UK next weekend and beyond before troughing South again across the UK late in the period.

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational this morning shows changeable conditions through the two week period this morning. After a brief warmer interlude through the first half of this week the general theme looks increasingly cool as Low pressure feeds down from the North from next weekend with a lot of showery West, NW or even North winds feeding the cool air to all areas in association with Low pressure towards the NE while higher pressure lies to the West and SW.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif 

 

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run is quite similar in many respects through the period although the changeable theme next week is less pronounced although the air is equally inherently chilly with some sunny spells, fewer showers than the operational suggests but the risk of some unwanted frost at night should skies clear sufficiently around dawns.

 

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters remain quite mixed with the genral theme that the most likely scenario in two weeks time will be High pressure of sorts to the West extending some influence across the UK in a airflow from the West or a chillier NW.

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

 

UKMO UKMO this morning shows Low pressure will slip ESE across Southern Britain on Thursday before winds back towards the West with rather cloudy skies and some rain at times across the North next weekend.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show the Low pressure area on Thursday carrying rain across Central and Southern areas while by Friday it has exited East to a Northerly ahead of a ridge and Atlantic westerlies for next weekend.

 

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

 

GEM GEM this morning shows Low pressure later this week giving way to a more Westerly flow next wekend when most rain will affect the North only. Later in the run Low pressure will become more influential to all areas from the North with rain at times and temperatures suppressed to average levels if not somewhat below especially in the North.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

 

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows a similar theme as the rest through this week with Westerly winds blowing across the UK a week from now with High pressure closest to the South by then deflecting rain bearing fronts largely to the North of the UK.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

 

ECM ECM follows the theme of the rest with High pressure to the South at the weekend with the UK lying under a rather cloudy Westerly flow with a little rain at times especially in the North. Then next week also as the majority of other output Low pressure moving down from the North influences a bigger slice of the UK in rather cool and showery conditions. Pressure is shown to rise again at the end of the run but the air remains none too warm for this stage in May.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart  from last night shows High pressure to the SW of the UK throwing a ridge close to Southern England with a Westerly flow blowing across most areas of the UK, no doubt with some rain at times to the North in particular.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

 

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trends show a deterioration in conditions next week as cool Low pressure is showing a growing trend to feed down from the North.

 

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.0 pts followed by UKM at 96.3 pts and GFS at 95.5. At 5 days ECM  leads UKMO with 87.3 over UKMO's 84.9 pts with GFS at 84.0. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 56.3 pts over GFS's 53.1 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM maintains superiority at 38.0 pts over GFS at 35.9. 

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png 

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig

 

 

MY THOUGHTS The message from the models continue to put high Summer on hold this morning though overall conditions will not feel that bad at times. The theme of the first week is for a quiet few days as a ridge crosses east over the UK towards Wednesday though a risk of frost on Tuesday night is worthy of mention. Then a small depression crosses East over the South on Thursday with rain quickly followed by improving conditions again on Friday. This then sets up a more direct West to East flow across Britain with High pressure lying to the South keeping rain bearing fronts generally over the north of the UK with the South seeing plenty of dry if rather cloudy weather. Then next week shows Low pressure to the North feeding influence down over many areas at least for a time with showers extending to all areas in a rather cold NW breeze. Late in the two week period there is some support for rising pressure again with the weather drying up again but temperatures never look like being anything other than normal or skightly below with the continued risk then of some ground frosts if High pressure and cool air combine. So while no heatwave is expected over the next few weeks the weather will neither be a washout with plenty of fine and dry weather to be enjoyed by all but with some brief showery spells spoiling the party and more importantly some rather cool temperatures at times too as winds remain featured mostly from a North or NW point through the second week inparticularly. 

 

Next update from 08:00 Tuesday May 12th 2015

[Summer Sun]

Looking at this mornings output's and its UKMO which has the high furthest north

 

 

GFS and ECM both have low pressure crossing north of Scotland with the best of the drier weather for the south

 

[knocker]

The anomalies this morning don't really warm the cockles.

 

Both the GEFS and ECM have the proverbial LP Canada and trough Scandinavia with slightly different orientations of the latter. The GEFS has ridging mid Atlantic resulting in a mainly NW Pm airstream (air originating N.Canada). The surface analysis still looking at a SW/NE split between the high and low pressures and temps below average The ECM doesn't make much of the ridge so a more zonal westerly airstream but temps remain not great.

 

For what it's worth a dip out to T360 and the GEFS keeps pretty much to the same pattern whereas the ECM does lose the Scandinavian trough and perhaps indicates more influence from the HP.

Charts weatherbell

 

[Summer Sun]

GFS still going for an unsettled start to next week however for the 2nd half of the pressure begins to rise cutting off the cooler winds and allowing temperatures to rise with the south having highs towards the high teens

 

 

UKMO is still going for a rise in pressure during Friday and this lasts through the weekend with only the far of Scotland at some of some rain / showers

 

[049balt]

http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.html

 

 

The drying trend continues.

[Summer Sun]

ECM this evening shows pressure rising during Friday and this stays through the weekend though northern and western Scotland remains at risk of some rain / showers

 

 

By early next week (Monday, Tuesday) things turn cooler especially in the north and the risk of some rain / showers can't be ruled out anywhere

 

 

Then pressure gradually builds by day 9 and 10 settling things down and temperatures generally around average

 

 

 

[ANYWEATHER]

http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.html

 

 

The drying trend continues.

Good Evening Folks, as you said above the drying trend continues at day ten+240hrs.   As much as I would like this scenario, we have been here before, and it has to be said that the ten day ops from ecm and gfs has been totally rubbish of late

[049balt]

Good Evening Folks, as you said above the drying trend continues at day ten+240hrs.   As much as I would like this scenario, we have been here before, and it has to be said that the ten day ops from ecm and gfs has been totally rubbish of late

The problem is trying to spot the change in a particular trend. The models are hinting that a change will happen and so we can hope that they will be right at some stage.

Edited May 11, 2015 by 049balt

[draztik]

Temp anom GEFS days 0-16 12z

 

Very little warmth on offer looking at the GFS Ensembles for the foreseeable. 

[johnholmes]

post 173 I made yesterday re the anomalies and the probable weather and today suggests there is no change in that idea of a coolish and rather unsettled spell in the 5-12 day period with perhaps less so for the far SW.

[knocker]

And a quick look at tonight's anomalies would also suggest no change out to day 14 except Cornwall may well be blessed.

Edited May 11, 2015 by knocker

[Cloud 10]

An interesting snippet about the unusual going's on in the Pacific in today's NOAA forecast discussion.

 

IT IS REASONABLE TO ASK WHETHER SUCH A PATTERN, GIVEN ITS APPARENTLY
LOW-FREQUENCY NATURE, MIGHT BE RELATED TO THE ONGOING ENSO STATE IN THE
PACIFIC. THIS WARM ENSO EVENT IS AMONG THE STRONGEST FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, AND
SO ANY MIDLATITUDE TELECONNECTIONS WOULD BE EXPECTED TO MANIFEST THEMSELVES
DURING SUCH AN EVENT. FOR A BACK OF THE ENVELOPE ATTRIBUTION, WE WILL CONSIDER
THE COMPOSITE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANALOG FOR THE PAST WEEK'S OBSERVATIONS AS WELL AS
FOR THE WEEK-2 OFFICIAL HEIGHT BLEND. BY LOOKING AT THE SST FOOTPRINTS OF THE
TEN-YEAR COMPOSITES FOR EACH MAP, WE SEE THAT THEY ARE QUITE DIFFERENT, WITH
THE OBSERVED PERIOD MORE CONSISTENT WITH EL NINO, BUT THE FORECAST PATTERN
STRONGLY TILTED TOWARD LA NINA. THIS IS NOT ENTIRELY SURPRISING CONSIDERING
THAT THE EL NINO CIRCULATION FOOTPRINT IS WEAKER DURING BOREAL SUMMER OVER THE
PACIFIC-NORTH AMERICA REGION, AND SO VERY LITTLE WEEK-TO-WEEK VARIANCE IS
LIKELY ATTRIBUTABLE TO THE ONGOING EVENT.

 

Full discussion here:  http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/fxus06.html

 

 

 

[knocker]

The latest EC32 update.

 

There is no strong signal for any major change out to the 12th June.

 

Next Sunday and Monday is of some interest as although we are still stuck with the low N. Canada, Iceland and trough Scandinavia it does briefly move the HP closer to the UK and perhaps some pleasant weather, certainly to England, with some warmer temps. Cornwall may even bask.

 

It is but a brief sojourn as by the 23rd the HP has slipped SW again with the LP to the NW although the trough has all but gone and the cool westerly regime is in situ.

 

Not much more to say about the rest of the run apart from the HP remains to the SW around mid Atlantic with LP Greenland so the airflow over the UK remains in the NW/SW quadrant but temps at least average or slightly above.

 

Looking at next Sunday the GFS shows a very brief flirtation with the HP

Chart weatherbell

 

Edited May 12, 2015 by knocker

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON TUESDAY MAY 12TH 2015.

 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A weak front will cross SE over Southern Britain with a showery Westerly flow over the North. A ridge of High pressure will cross the UK from the West tonight and tomorrow. 

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif 

 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable with some rain at times especially over the North but spells of dry and fine weather too for all. Generally rather cool.

 

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream will move a little further South over the coming days as a Low crosses Southern England. The flow then returns to a West to East flow across the British isles followed by a weakening of the flow later in the run where it's positioning becomes unclear.

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational this morning shows changeable conditions through the two week period again this morning. The Low crossing Southern Britain later this week will be replaced by High pressure to the SW and a West to NW flow across the UK. A lot of dry if rather cloudy weather would accompany this with a lot of dry weather to begin with. However, another surge of cool weather is shown to cross SE over the UK by the middle of next week with High pressure then taking a stranglehold on the UK weather through week 2 with fine and dry weather likely but again not overly warm.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif 

 

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run is very supportive of the theme shown by the operational with the same rather cool weather influential with rainfall restricted to short bursts early in the period and again for a time next week.

 

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters support the raw data runs quite well with good support between the clusters that High pressure is generally though to be likely positioned to the West or SW of the UK in two weeks time carrying cool NW winds down across the UK though amounts of rainfall aren't shown to be great in the vast majority of the members.

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

 

UKMO UKMO this morning shows High pressure likely to lie down to the SW of the UK early next week with Westerly or NW winds blowing across the UK with any rain mostly found across the North with temperatures overall a little shy of normal values.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts follow the theme of the raw data charts as High pressure builds down to the SW of the UK carrying weak troughs across the UK over the weekend with any appreciable rain up to the NW and a lot of dry weather to the rest of the UK in average temperatures.

 

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

 

GEM GEM this morning shows High pressure building down to the SW early next week and unlike the other output it holds some influence to the South of the UK throughout the course of the run whereas more Northern areas see increasingly cool and showery weather later next week as Low pressure slides East to the North of the UK.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

 

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows High pressure building close to Southern Britain by the beginning of next week with dry and fine weather here. Further North some dry spells are still shown to be interrupted at times by occasional rain from fronts passing East or NE to the North or NW.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

 

ECM ECM looks distinctly cool this morning with the cool and changeable theme currently occurring for many likely to last into the weekend when things remain largely dry for many in the South. Then next week High pressure is maintained to the SW and West while Low pressure slides SE over the North Sea and feed very cool and showery air down across all areas with a new surge showing signs of developing at day 10.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart  from last night shows High pressure to the SW of the UK still badly positioned for the UK while Low pressure remains locked to the North and NE of Britain with cool air enveloping the UK in NW or West winds and showers.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

 

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trends show a deterioration in conditions next week as cool Low pressure is showing a growing trend to feed down from the North.

 

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.9 pts followed by UKM at 96.2 pts and GFS at 95.4. At 5 days ECM  leads UKMO with 86.9 over UKMO's 84.8 pts with GFS at 83.6. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 54.9 pts over GFS's 53.0 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM maintains superiority at 37.7 pts over GFS at 35.3. 

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png 

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig

 

 

MY THOUGHTS The weather patterns shown within the outputs this morning closely resemble the pattern that affected the UK for much of the Winter season with High pressure down to the SW of the UK and Low pressure up to the North and NE with NW or West winds dominant across all areas. Over the next few days a small Low will drift across the South on Thursday with some cool and wet weather likely in the South while the aftermath shows High pressure build to the SW of the UK setting up a Westerly flow across all areas, quite stable for a time before Low pressure drifts down across the North Sea from the NW later next week bringing distinctly chilly winds and showers to many. In fact I wouldn't be surprised to see ground frosts at times in shelter and wintry showers on Scottish mountains next week particularly if the ECM operational run verifies. However, in the bright sunshine between the showers in the South it may well feel pleasant enough. Longer term there is not much sign of Summer warmth with temperatures likely to be held to average levels at best and often rather cool. High pressure does look as though it could well become more dominant again later in the period with dry and fine weather dominating late in the period. 

 

Next update from 08:00 Wednesday May 13th 2015

[coldcomfort]

Rather frustrating to see high pressure refusing to ridge in fully across the UK during the next week to 10 days, but that said it should remain close enough to produce some decent weather at times across the S and SW in particular, where it will at least feel pleasant in the sunshine and out of the breeze.

 

Typically we don't have to look too far south for some proper heat (just as in winter we often don't have to look too far east for proper cold), with maxima close to 100f likely tomorrow in Madrid and even 95f in parts of southwestern France.

 

Not too shabby for the first half of May!

Edited May 12, 2015 by coldcomfort

[049balt]

http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.html

 

 

Drying trend continues.

[Summer Sun]

The ensembles from ECM and GFS both showing high pressure to the south west and low pressure to the NE setting up a north westerly flow

 

 

Pressure possibly rising slightly in the south & south west later next week if it did it would be here where it would be drier

 

GFS ens is slightly different whilst we still have low pressure to the NE the high is influencing the south west more at first it but during Tuesday its likely it will back west

 

 

Then by Thursday the high is shown to push back over parts of the UK this then takes us through the end of the week and through the BH weekend