Model Output Discussion - 3rd May Onwards 00z--->

[Summer Sun]

UKMO showing some promise later next week with pressure starting to rise again temperatures nothing special but given any sunshine it wouldn't be too bad

 

 

Thursday looks like the day with the most rain around for large parts of the UK

 

[Frosty.]

I wish we could have had charts like these in winter, dream synoptics with height rises to the northwest, a blocked atlantic and a persistent scandi trough.

Edited May 9, 2015 by Frosty.

[Summer Sun]

GFS has gone and done exactly what ECM did this morning a cooler more unsettled Op but not supported by the ensembles

 

 

ECM 00z

 

Edited May 9, 2015 by Summer Sun

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z shows a warm day for England and Wales on monday, very warm and probably sunny for the south east with 24/25c likely. Looking at next week generally, Wednesday/Friday & sunday stand out as looking fine and pleasant in most of the UK, the most unsettled weather on this run is further north/northwest with high pressure staying close to the sw/s/se which is where the driest, brightest and most pleasant conditions would be although by T+240 it's unsettled for all.

Edited May 9, 2015 by Frosty.

[legritter]

The Ecm 12z shows a warm day for England and Wales on monday, very warm and probably sunny for the south east with 24/25c likely. Looking at next week generally, Wednesday/Friday & sunday stand out as looking fine and pleasant in most of the UK, the most unsettled weather on this run is further north/northwest with high pressure staying close to the sw/s/se which is where the driest, brightest and most pleasant conditions would be although by T+240 it's unsettled for all.

Lets Enjoy any sun and warmth we get over the coming week .

Having just sifted through the further outlook charts we could be seeing a rather  unsettled period later in the outlook .

we could infact be looking at some very interesting weather ,but as usual nothing set in stone but some signs afoot .

How much influance the azores high will play could be crucial ,great day in the sun today but a spring nip in the air tonight .

Cheers gang .

[Stuie]

Interesting from tonight`s ECM for Friday, who wins? HP developing from the South meets the LP from the North. Shirley the HP wins...

https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/21126-ech1-144/

 

[knocker]

Merely out of curiosity had a quick look at the ops 500mb anomaly vis important positions of the trough and ridge on the 18th and the corresponding surface analysis. As mentioned before the proximity of the upper trough can be a nuisance. A NW mars bar will not be given for correctly positioning the jet.

Charts weatherbell

 

It should be noted this is just one ops run and not set in stone which in view of recent tragic events is probably a good thing. I say this despite looking at last night's anomalies where there is a reluctance to shift this trough and even a hint of mid Atlantic ridging . Who said there is no interesting meteorology in summer? Ah yes I remember now.

Edited May 10, 2015 by knocker

[Polar Maritime]

The GFS shows a pretty wet affair arriving Thursday, With a chilly N/E flow after the front has pushed through from the West. By the weekend the next Low spins in off the Atlantic, Model'd currently to run over Iceland with the tail end clipping the North of the UK pushing widespread showers South.

 

Edited May 10, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[johnholmes]

The overall upper pattern suggested from the 3 main 500mb anomaly charts is for a flow north of west in the 6-10 day range. This would suggest surface temperatures, mostly other than an isolated day perhaps, at or below average. Not really possible to say how unsettled it would be as the position of the trough will be crucial to governing this. All 3 do suggest it over and east of the UK with the SW probably being most influenced by the ridging.

links below

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

The 8-14 NOAA does show the flow easing off and backing more westerly with heights rising slightly so perhaps an improving picture into mid May onwards?

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON SUNDAY MAY 10TH 2015

 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A warm front will move NE across Northern areas with a cold front moving slowly SE tonight and tomorrow across England and Wales weakening as it goes.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif 

 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable with some rain at times especially over the North but spells of dry and fine weather too for all.

 

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream will blow NE across the UK through the early days of this week before moving South later this week under a UK trough. Later the flow weakens and becomes more ill defined.

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational this morning shows a period of warmer and more humid conditions developing early this week as a ridge moves NE. Then more unsettled weather with rain at times feeds in from the West by the weekend with temperatures rather lower. Then the weather turns more traditional under a North/South split with rain at times over the North while the South turns fine and bright at times. Then later in the run roles reverse as pressure builds to the North and Low to the South with a fresh East breeze and rain at times in the South while the North becomes dry with the best Western in Western Scotland. 

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif 

 

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run is quite similar in many respects through Week 1 before the same pressure reversal in Week 2 is less pronounced and after a while reverts back to more normal conditions with the North having the greater risk of rain after a while as High pressure remains to the South or SE.

 

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters are quite mixed this morning with no clear pattern given at Day 14 apart from the fact that quite slack conditions could prevail across the UK.

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

 

UKMO UKMO this morning shows High pressure close to the SE over the coming days with sunshine and warm weather down here while Northern and Western areas stay more changeable. Then at the end of the week Low pressure looks poised to the SW to spill rain across the UK with a ridge following on behind drying things up again from the West next weekend.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a warm up early next week with warm SW winds across the South and East. Low pressure moves up towards the SW later this week with rain threatening by Thursday and most likely for all on Friday.

 

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

 

GEM GEM this morning looks very High pressure based as the early High to the SE gives way only briefly to a more unsettled phase late in the week as Low pressure crosses the UK. Through next weekend and the start of Week 2 High pressure rebuilds strongly right across the UK on this run with developing sunny and warm conditions for all. 

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

 

NAVGEM NAVGEM also shows a cooler and unsettled phase late this week and early next weekend before High pressure builds back towards SW Britain through the weekend.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

 

ECM ECM shows High pressure near the SE early this week with Low pressure following in late in the week with some rain replacing the dry and warmer conditions early on. After the rain pressure rebuilds slowly from the South or SW but doesn't extend to all areas on this run meaning while the South and West become dry and brighter the North and East could see rather cooler weather later under a NW flow with some showers in places here.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart  from last night is in good agreement with the operational with High pressure to the SW having some influence across the UK maintaining any occasional rain mostly towards the West.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

 

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trends remain focused on the slow extension of the influence of High pressure to the South or SW across the UK at the 10 day time point.

 

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.1 pts followed by UKM at 96.4 pts and GFS at 95.7. At 5 days ECM  leads UKMO with 87.6 over UKMO's 85.5 pts with GFS at 84.5. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 56.4 pts over GFS's 53.4 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM gains superiority at 37.8 pts over GFS at 37.1. 

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png 

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig

 

 

MY THOUGHTS The general theme of the models this morning look focused on the influence of High pressure and it's positioning in relation to the UK over week 2. Through the coming week the High pressure zone to the SE bathes England and Wales in relatively warm weather with some warm sunshine until Thursday when an intervention of Low pressure from the West moves in with some rain or showers for all in cooler conditions generally. This then looks to give way over the weekend as High pressure rebuilds, most likely from the SW or South. We then look like falling under a North/South split in conditions with South seeing the best of any dry and fine conditions while the North continues to see some rain at times. Some output extend this High across all of Britain in Week 2 especially GEM who brings fine and warm conditions for all later while the extended output from GFS switch High pressure to the North later with the risk of the best conditions reversing to Northern areas as winds switch to the East. This is way out in the 10-14 days time point though and is obviously open to much modification and even removal in subsequent output with the most likely evolution in the closer time frame for High pressure to lie somewhere to the South or SW of the UK in 10 days with some or possibly a lot of influnece across at least the South of the UK in temperatures close to or perhaps a little above normal in the South. Nowhere in the next two weeks look like experiencing anything extreme in weather terms with generally quite benign conditions with just occasional rain or showers and a lot of dry, relatively quiet weather for all at times. Temperatures also look unremarkable with times of pleasantly warm conditions without ever being hot and periods of rather cooler conditions with temperatures never being very chilly either. 

 

Next update from 08:00 Monday May 11th 2015

[Summer Sun]

UKMO this morning shows a big area of high pressure in the Atlantic and drifting over to the UK next Saturday whilst not a warm flow by any means things should be and settle down after a wet period on Thursday and maybe Friday

 

[knocker]

The overall upper pattern suggested from the 3 main 500mb anomaly charts is for a flow north of west in the 6-10 day range. This would suggest surface temperatures, mostly other than an isolated day perhaps, at or below average. Not really possible to say how unsettled it would be as the position of the trough will be crucial to governing this. All 3 do suggest it over and east of the UK with the SW probably being most influenced by the ridging.

links below

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

The 8-14 NOAA does show the flow easing off and backing more westerly with heights rising slightly so perhaps an improving picture into mid May onwards?

 

Just been looking at the ECM ext. and the overall picture out to T360 seems to be retaining the vortex over Canada with an arm to the Scandinavian trough. This accompanied by pressure rises in mid Atlantic. The trough tends to weaken as time goes by thus leaving the UK in a light W airstream with cooler than average temps becoming average.

[Summer Sun]

Amongst the unsettled models we have GEM which is going a different way with the high building over the UK and the 850's recovering
 



 

Edited May 10, 2015 by Summer Sun

[damianslaw]

Apart from tomorrow's pulse of warm air for the SE, there is nothing particularly warm on the horizon for the foreseeable, indeed distinctly average, and a bit below average in the north as we see the flow from a north-west quarter, thanks to the position of heights to our SW.

 

It remains a predominantly unsettled outlook, with ebbs and flows as we see another low pressure push across the country come middle of next week and for a short time winds turn to the NE, never a warm direction at this time of year.

 

Longer term - no obvious signs of anything settled for any length of time perhaps more of a westerly flow with weak influence of azores high.

[Summer Sun]

Once Thursday's low moves out pressure slowly rises again never especially warm with a north westerly flow though if you have some sunshine and shelter it should start and feel warmer more so in the south further north Scotland still remains prone to some unsettled conditions with low pressure systems crossing north of here

 

 

Whats looking increasingly possible is that by next weekend we'll have a big area of high pressure in the Atlantic and drifting over western Europe (Spain, France, Portugal ect) it remains to be seen what influence it may have on the UK we could all settle down for a time, it could just be the south or it could even have no effect on us, the next few days should start and clear things up hopefully

 

GEM and GFS at t144 also show this area of high pressure

 

 

Edited May 10, 2015 by Summer Sun

[Frosty.]

Tomorrow looks a cracker in the SE, dry, sunny and very warm with 22/23c shown on the Gfs 12z. Having read the latest MO update, sounds like an increasingly unsettled further outlook with below average temps, the gfs also shows this in FI with a risk of air frosts in late May and wintry ppn at times on the highest ground in Scotland.

[Milhouse]

The ECM is indicating the possibility of high pressure ridging in more across southern England which would help bring warmer air into the mix. Its better than the GFS which has high pressure to the SW all too easily collapsing into a cool NW airstream.

 

 

[049balt]

The ECM is indicating the possibility of high pressure ridging in more across southern England which would help bring warmer air into the mix. Its better than the GFS which has high pressure to the SW all too easily collapsing into a cool NW airstream.

 

 

Even the North has 1020 so should be dry in most areas.

[Simey68]

Certainly plenty of heat across Spain and France,wish we could tap into a bit more of this

[049balt]

Certainly plenty of heat across Spain and France,wish we could tap into a bit more of this

Lets get dried out first.

[Simey68]

hopefully done it right

[Summer Sun]

All the main models in agreement that high pressure could come into play from Saturday, then its a case of what happens after wards ECM keeps it close by to the UK with a lot of dry and increasingly warm weather especially towards the south

 

 

 

Its not until day 10 that we have a potential breakdown of sorts with some fresher air but the high is never far away

 

 

JMA makes it a full house from the models this evening, not often every one agrees on something thats still 6 days away

 

Edited May 10, 2015 by Summer Sun

[mushymanrob]

The ECM is indicating the possibility of high pressure ridging in more across southern England which would help bring warmer air into the mix. Its better than the GFS which has high pressure to the SW all too easily collapsing into a cool NW airstream.

 

 

Trouble is theres no current anomaly chart support for that which id like to see.

[Milhouse]

The GFS 0z is one of the worst of the bunch of ensembles for the way it brings in cooler air from the north in around 7 days time. Plenty of GEFS ensemble members have high pressure stronger and longer lasting across southern England. So there is some cause for optimism this evening.

[049balt]

All the main models in agreement that high pressure could come into play from Saturday, then its a case of what happens after wards ECM keeps it close by to the UK with a lot of dry and increasingly warm weather especially towards the south

 

 

 

Its not until day 10 that we have a potential breakdown of sorts with some fresher air but the high is never far away

 

 

JMA makes it a full house from the models this evening, not often every one agrees on something thats still 6 days away

 

Not a mention of a settled spell in forecasts, have we missed something here?