Model Output Discussion - 3rd May Onwards 00z--->

[Evening thunder]

ecm extended ens continue to promise something better.  the alaskan ridge finally gives way to an upper shallow trough which draws the vortex energy west from ne canada rather than the current fixation with the n atlantic. gefs also promises a general rising in heights over europe so i would expect the passing of week 2 to herald a change in our fortunes. what seems to be showing consistently, is that once the jet relents, we will see a euro height rise to our ese and an upper trough form over iberia. i may be sounding like a broken record but it will definitely feel very different if that comes to pass. of course, if we do get a ridge established to our east, any reformation of the atlantic jet will deliver a rather different outcome where the two meet. either way, thats warm and wet (thundery?) or perhaps v warm/hot and dry.

 

Sounds interesting and what I like from summer, and seeing as I will be out the country from the 10th-18th I can guarantee it will come to pass.. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Crewe gavin said something down the lines of his latest video of a southerly tracking jet for June. He also said in the analogue based vid that 1972 and 1997 are our nearest matches considering the pdo state and enso in conjunction what stuart markham was on about.

 

Very plausible....we may see a period of adjustment preceding this, hence the 'better' looking charts that we are seeing at the end of the GFS runs and ensemble forecasts at present. However I've seen nothing at present to suggest any longevity to this before pressure lowers once again to the SW and rises to the N/NW.

 

I think Nick has highlighted a potential scenario (which may be the best we can hope for) whereby HP anchors to the E/NE with the troughing just to our west allowing a (potentially unstable) southerly flow.

Edited May 24, 2015 by CreweCold

[Frosty.]

Signs of summery weather in early june continue to grow, the Gfs 12z in low res is heading in the right direction, however, it's the latest met office outlook for June which made me happy, it sounds like high pressure and increasing warmth is on the way and eventually the south could have very warm / humid continental weather with thundery outbreaks and hot sunshine, what a fantastic early summer that would be.

[Summer Sun]

Dry and pleasantly warm for the first  week in June.

 

http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.html

 

The problem is these charts are always in week 2 until it makes it into week 1 and reality a lot of caution is needed

[049balt]

Signs of summery weather in early june continue to grow, the Gfs 12z in low res is heading in the right direction, however, it's the latest met office outlook for June which made me happy, it sounds like high pressure and increasing warmth is on the way and eventually the south could have very warm / humid continental weather with thundery outbreaks and hot sunshine, what a fantastic early summer that would be.

Great stuff Frosty, confidence growing that Summer is close.

The problem is these charts are always in week 2 until it makes it into week 1 and reality a lot of caution is needed

Agreed, caution is needed but it is the trend that I am looking for.

[knocker]

The GEFS anomalies tonight still have the trough to the NW mainly effecting the north of Britain but they are sustaining the interest in building the heights to the NE in the ext period. This tends to a surface analysis of two cells of HP, one centred just to the NE and the other way SW in the Atlantic interconnected with just a suspicion of a weak trough south of Greenland.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

 

[Frosty.]

Fantastic GEFS 12z mean this evening, the best indicator so far which points to an increasingly anticyclonic and warmer spell through early / mid June and potentially beyond that, the PFJ gets pushed way, way north into the arctic circle. This year, we really could be in for FLAMING June.

[Summer Sun]

Indeed Karl, things looking good for early June from GFS ensembles with pressure rising

 

 

I am remaining cautious for now given its still a good 7 to 9 days away, but its all about trends if this is still showing by the end of the coming week then confidence will start and grow

[Frosty.]

Indeed Karl, things looking good for early June from GFS ensembles with pressure rising

 

 

I am remaining cautious for now given its still a good 7 to 9 days away, but its all about trends if this is still showing by the end of the coming week then confidence will start and grow

It's right to be cautious Gavin, especially if it was only the gefs mean showing a trend to settled I would be sceptical but we have the experts saying it too. I'm confident we are going to see a marked change to very summery weather within the next two weeks.

[mushymanrob]

The closing frames of the past few GFS runs look to me like a complete re-run of the setting up of the washout summers of 07-12. High pressure ridges, builds towards Scandi then extends across the N Atlantic towards Greenland, thus allowing pressure to lower to the SW and providing an opportunity for the jet to meander across/just to the S of the UK.

 

Disagree. Wheres the southerly tracking jet? Theres nothing like there was in recent washout summers. Cherry picking ever changing fi charts to prove a point is foolish imho.

Cant see it mate, until this appears in a reliable timeframe with backing from the anomaly charts its whittling over nothing

 

Obviously it's well out in the realms of la la land but maybe worth noting. Ideally, for those wanting sustained summer, you'd want to see that HP route to Greenland closed off. If not, you always run the risk of us ending up (very) wet.

[Captain Shortwave]

GFS/GEM/ECM ens all going for a rapid build of pressure during week 2.

 

GFS

 

GEM

 

GFS and GEM build heights to the north east with warm or very warm conditions developing. This persists to the end of the extended range on both.

 

So a definite chance of something summery developing during the first half of June.

Edited May 24, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[Mokidugway]

Jet looks like it's finally visiting Iceland ..

[Polar Maritime]

Jet looks like it's finally visiting Iceland ..image.jpg

 

Yes a split Jet there with the Southern cut-off way south over the equator and a big blob of High Pressure sat over the UK, Just in time for Summer.  

[knocker]

And so the gradual warm up in Europe begins. Having said that just looking into the crystal ball for a moment although I'm quietly confident that HP and some good weather is on the way there is potential for some convective nonsense in the south if LP establishes to the SE in the right position.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=eu&pkg=T850&runtime=2015052500&fh=384&xpos=0&ypos=228

Chart weatherbell

Edited May 25, 2015 by knocker

[bluearmy]

And so the gradual warm up in Europe begins. Having said that just looking into the crystal ball for a moment although I'm quietly confident that HP and some good weather is on the way there is potential for some convective nonsense in the south if LP establishes to the SE in the right position.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=eu&pkg=T850&runtime=2015052500&fh=384&xpos=0&ypos=228

Chart weatherbell

The repeating chart in fi is heights to our East and trough to our west. Could be cut off or could dig into Iberia. I agree that we have seen cut off trough to our se but think that is where the long term trough has been ridged over and is managing to sustain itself. I wouldn't see that as the favourite. There also remains the chance of the stellar winter set up of Scandinavia block with the jet flowing through Europe to our South. we should certainly get a good few settled days countrywide as the ridge builds in but thereafter, it looks like it gets interesting.

[knocker]

The repeating chart in fi is heights to our East and trough to our west. Could be cut off or could dig into Iberia. I agree that we have seen cut off trough to our se but think that is where the long term trough has been ridged over and is managing to sustain itself. I wouldn't see that as the favourite. There also remains the chance of the stellar winter set up of Scandinavia block with the jet flowing through Europe to our South. we should certainly get a good few settled days countrywide as the ridge builds in but thereafter, it looks like it gets interesting.

 

Yes I agree there are some intriguing possibilities here but none of them bad as far as I cad see

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

[mushymanrob]

well im optimistic viewing the recent 8-14 day anomaly charts.

(21/5)

(23/5)

(25/5)

looks to me like there should be a gradual pressure rise to our south and east after this week, with the most unsettled weather being in the north but pretty nice in the south. still no sign of support for the gfs's pressure rise over the whole uk, but the anomaly charts appear to be gradually moving in the right direction.

[Summer Sun]

GFS ensembles again showing a marked change in our weather from around June 2nd

 

 

ECM by day 9 and 10 now showing a rise in pressure

 

 

So again this morning we have hints that something more settled and warmer could develop early next week, though like last night I will remain cautious until this comes into a more reliable timeframe

[Polar Maritime]

Yes more confidence this morning from the GFS for High Pressure to develop over the UK for the back-end of the 1st week of June. 

 

[049balt]

Yes a split Jet there with the Southern cut-off way south over the equator and a big blob of High Pressure sat over the UK, Just in time for Summer.  

Well it is great to see that many here agree with what Frosty and I have been saying for a week or so, that June will mark a turning poit in our weather.

[Polar Maritime]

Well it is great to see that many here agree with what Frosty and I have been saying for a week or so, that June will mark a turning poit in our weather.

 

Yes I agree, The Model's have been hinting at this for a good week as you say.. You & Frosty aren't alone on this, Trust me! 

 

In-fact i would probably raise my hat to BA    

Edited May 25, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[knocker]

If memory serves correctly the EC32 has been hinting at this for a while and certainly the ext anomalies have, albeit it kept getting nudged back a bit.

[Mr Frost]

Well it is great to see that many here agree with what Frosty and I have been saying for a week or so, that June will mark a turning poit in our weather.

The Metoffice update has been talking about rise of High pressure for the 2nd week of June for 2 weeks - these long range updates from them have been outstanding for months now.

Perhaps most prolonged sunshine in the North for once!

It has been a pretty unremarkable Spring with daytime temperatures hovering on average around 13 degrees here and the variety of weather has been non existent.

I am really looking forward to some warmth in June and with the Metoffice updates consistently going for this pressure rise I am almost certain we are in for a good spell of Summer weather.

Had it only been the charts showing this I would be very cautious.

Cheers

☀ï¸âš¡ï¸

[knocker]

I should add so has the EC32.

[bluearmy]

I should add so has the EC32.

There is a correlation ...................