Model Output Discussion - 3rd May Onwards 00z--->

[coldcomfort]

Well having plucked up courage to view the 06 I'm happy to see no further delay in the pressure rise from the south next week, in fact if anything it's been brought forward a little, but I seem to recall the 06 yesterday was also pretty much along these lines. Will see what both the 12 runs from the big 2 show later, hopefully a similar if not better/quicker evolution to summer.

[Captain Shortwave]

Well having plucked up courage to view the 06 I'm happy to see no further delay in the pressure rise from the south next week, in fact if anything it's been brought forward a little, but I seem to recall the 06 yesterday was also pretty much along these lines. Will see what both the 12 runs from the big 2 show later, hopefully a similar if not better/quicker evolution to summer.

The 3rd seems to be the baseline, the GFS yesterday for a time was suggesting the 2nd, which no other model went with.

Ties in with the GFS ens, the ECM suite being the one which is slowing the progress north of Euro heights.

The ECM seems to want to find any route to re-establish heights over Alaska and is doing with by sending WAA from the Russian ridge straight across the pole, as such forces the jet southwards again counteracting the other forcings going on, hence the transient ridging affair seen on the ECM operational.

Lets hope the GFS is in the right here for once, though it has been a theme this year so far that the most pessimistic model ends up being closer to the truth (a couple of weeks back we saw a potential plume event which the much maligned GEM refused to back and was proven correct).

[coldcomfort]

The 3rd seems to be the baseline, the GFS yesterday for a time was suggesting the 2nd, which no other model went with.

Ties in with the GFS ens, the ECM suite being the one which is slowing the progress north of Euro heights.

The ECM seems to want to find any route to re-establish heights over Alaska and is doing with by sending WAA from the Russian ridge straight across the pole, as such forces the jet southwards again counteracting the other forcings going on, hence the transient ridging affair seen on the ECM operational.

Lets hope the GFS is in the right here for once, though it has been a theme this year so far that the most pessimistic model ends up being closer to the truth (a couple of weeks back we saw a potential plume event which the much maligned GEM refused to back and was proven correct).

Indeed CS....therein lies the one near constant, if only the most optimistic model always ended up being closer to the truth, this model watching game would be a completely different and much more enjoyable/less stressful one...

Edited May 27, 2015 by coldcomfort

[mushymanrob]

the delay doesnt bother me... id sooner a gradual evolution to a sustained anti-cylconic dominated spell then a rapid evolution.

totally unscientific, i think, but me and my friend (a weather watcher too for 40 years) tends to think that a slow evolution seems to last longer. think of the cold march the other year, that was predicted by the models (ecm in particular) for weeks before it happened.

so im pretty happy with these charts suggesting some kind of high pressure domination as we enter into june.

[tcc]

So what's the consensus on the rain going through on Sunday? I've got an outdoor thing going on in the afternoon and I can see conflicting signals for when the rain is arriving!

[Frosty.]

So what's the consensus on the rain going through on Sunday? I've got an outdoor thing going on in the afternoon and I can see conflicting signals for when the rain is arriving!

The Gfs 6z shows a window of fine weather on Sunday afternoon in southern england with the main band of rain arriving from the west early evening, the met office said becoming wet and windy on Sunday and clearing up during the evening. Hope that helps for now

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 6z mean shows a big change to warmer anticyclonic weather through early to mid June, no downgrades to the settled extended outlook, the turning point is the middle of next week with the south of England being the first to become fine and warm as high pressure develops, the north of the UK turns fine and warm by the end of next week and then it's a nationwide fine and warm/very warm spell. The latest MO update has not changed either, still on course for a widespread summery spell beyond T+168/192 hours.

[tcc]

The Gfs 6z shows a window of fine weather on Sunday afternoon in southern england with the main band of rain arriving from the west early evening, the met office said becoming wet and windy on Sunday and clearing up during the evening. Hope that helps for now

 

Thanks for that Frosty, it's certainly a tough one to call as to whether it stalls long enough out west till we're done!

 

I'll keep an eye on it, I guess should know by Friday as to the timings.

[Frosty.]

Thanks for that Frosty, it's certainly a tough one to call as to whether it stalls long enough out west till we're done!

 

I'll keep an eye on it, I guess should know by Friday as to the timings.

Hope it stays fine for you, yes you're right, timings will change, hopefully it will delay until evening as the 6z shows.

[knocker]

This morning's anomalies are not quite in agreement in how to evolve the upper pattern. The NOAA 8-14 and ECM T288 are in broad agreement with the ridge just to the east of the UK and a trough to the west.  HP eastern N. America, the Pole and no Alaskan ridge. Thus surface analysis two separate HP cells, Scandinavia and SW Atlantic. The GEFS not keen building heights to the east has the ridge just to the west of the UK with a little slack cut off low to the SW giving a single HP area over the UK. It continues this at 06. Still looking okay general evolution of HP but for no good reason I feel a tad uneasy about possible developments to our SW/S

Chart weatherbell

Edited May 27, 2015 by knocker

[knocker]

Apropos nothing at all really. Current SST anomalies. Plus 3C and 4C Alaska S. America and -1.5C N. Atlantic.

 

[Summer Sun]

CFS and ECM anomalies; northern Europe generally warmer and drier, whilst parts of southern Europe turn cooler and wetter, all depends on which of the anomalies you believe...if any

 

 

Charts cover the period of June 8th to 21st and are from wsi euro weather

Edited May 27, 2015 by Summer Sun

[coldcomfort]

12 GFS rolling out, hopefully by 8pm we will at least be a little closer to knowing whether this is the 'done deal' many suggest it is, or just another twist of the knife in the gut of those of us wanting to see the arrival of summer.  Eyes down, here we go...

Edited May 27, 2015 by coldcomfort

[Milhouse]

Next Wednesday the 3rd is still looking like the big day that should herald the start of Summer. High pressure building from the south has been modelled for the 3rd June for a few days now.

 

[Summer Sun]

Before the better weather is shown to arrive we've got some unsettled weather to get through first with temperatures struggling in the low to mid teens, and some strong winds for the time of year as well

 

Edited May 27, 2015 by Summer Sun

[Polar Maritime]

Yes Gavin, Something im keeping a close eye on as to how this system is model'd, Looks an interesting feature.

[Frosty.]

Not long to wait now, the Gfs 12z shows next Wednesday is the transition day from dross to good weather, high pressure rules throughout FI with lots of dry, fine and warm weather. I will be pleased for all those in the northwest of the UK who have had a largely dire spring, very good times ahead of us.

Edited May 27, 2015 by Frosty.

[Summer Sun]

GEM like the others shows an unsettled spell of weather in the short term, with plenty of showers and maybe some longer spells of rain coupled with the risk of some strong winds for the time of year

 

 

Beyond this there are signs of things slowly improving from the south, through the far north and west along with the southeast does remain at risk of some showers now and then, with those in the south possibly heavy and thundery

 

Edited May 27, 2015 by Summer Sun

[Captain Shortwave]

June starting on a very disturbed note with low pressure running in across the south of the UK.

There could be some big thundery showers over England and Wales from this, so something for the storm nuts at least

 

The models are still trying to build pressure beyond this point, the GFS looks a little extreme with the cut off low developing over Europe. I expect possibly a shallower low than the ECM is suggesting but nowhere near the set up the GFS is showing at day 6.

 

ECM builds pressure in around the 3rd.

Edited May 27, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[049balt]

http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.html

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z mean will please many on here I'm sure since it shows a warm settled extended outlook with the Azores high building a strong ridge across the UK and temperatures rising into the low 20's celsius for most of the UK and nearer mid 20's c for the south/southeast. There has not been any sign of downgrades from the mean in recent days, it continues to show solid support for a welcome pattern change and I expect that to continue..just a week to go before it begins.

Edited May 27, 2015 by Frosty.

[knocker]

The GEFS anomaly looking good after the 3rd. Temps around average maybe a tad above.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Edited May 27, 2015 by knocker

[049balt]

Still some uncertainty exactly how things will pan out next week, the position of the high will dictate temps., it may take time to build some real heat.

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening Guys and Galls ! If you need patience  on a developing settled spell then look away, we are no further forward than last night quite honestly...Gfs keeps the phantom settled spell a real mess by day 9 and its a Bingo high from the ecm at day ten.......still no further forward, but this is my thoughts only.....and no offence to anyone who thinks different......

[coldcomfort]

Evening Guys and Galls ! If you need patience  on a developing settled spell then look away, we are no further forward than last night quite honestly...Gfs keeps the phantom settled spell a real mess by day 9 and its a Bingo high from the ecm at day ten.......still no further forward, but this is my thoughts only.....and no offence to anyone who thinks different......

I think you are spot on...as it frustratingly appears was my previous carrot and stick analogy. Whilst any major change remains stubbornly in the 8-9 day range it's seems rather foolish to assume anything imo, but hey ho, that's just an opinion.

Edited May 27, 2015 by coldcomfort