Model Output Discussion - 3rd May Onwards 00z--->

[knocker]

That chart is the image of the EC32 anomaly for Sunday the 7th mushy.

Edited May 26, 2015 by knocker

[Frosty.]

The GFS 00z shows high pressure building in next week and becoming centred to the east of the UK for a time which enables very warm and humid air from the continent to drift north, temperatures widely into the low to mid 20's celsius. There is also a risk of thundery rain / showers pushing up from the south during low res...anyway, I'm just very pleased to see a surge of warmth and high pressure next week.

Edited May 26, 2015 by Frosty.

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON TUESDAY MAY 26TH 2015.

 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A light NW flow remains across the UK with a showery Westerly flow across Northern Scotland. A new set of troughs will approach Western Britain later tomorrow..

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif 

 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE A spell of changeable weather in the first week followed by warmer and more settled weather in Week 2.

 

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow will blow West to East across the UK over the next few days, moving slowly South and then back North after the weekend. Then later in the run the flow weakens and breaks up as High pressure builds near the UK later next week. The flow then remains light and ill defined with regard to the UK late in the run.

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today shows a spell of breezy and changeable weather up and coming later this week and over the weekend as Low pressure swings East across the North and throws troughs East followed by more showery conditions. From next week High pressure builds strongly across the UK and then to the North with winds switching East with some warm continental air blowing over the UK but with the threat of some thundery showers across the South at times through Week 2. 

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif 

 

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run shows a rather different pattern later in it's run as the innitial changeable and cool spell later this week is shown to be replaced by a ridge of High pressure near the South moving East and sending a cople of days of very warm humid air North across the UK before a breakdown is shown to develop quite quickly with thundery rain. Thereafter Low pressure is back in charge with occasional wind and rain in sometimes cool weather shown towards the end of the run.

 

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today indicate an approximately 80/20 bias in favour towards High pressure likely to be lying close to or over the UK in two weeks time while there is just a 20% membership in the lower pressure camp with wind and rain at times under Atlantic Low pressure and troughs.

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

 

UKMO UKMO this morning shows a blustery and relatively cool Westerly flow across the UK later this week and over the weekend as Low pressure areas move East to the North of the UK on occasion. Breezy and changeable weather would occur for all with rain and showers at times in temperatures at average levels at best.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts are looking quite changeable still with complex if weak troughs surround the UK at times in a rather cloudy NW flow. Clearer and showery weather on a Westerly flow late in the week is replaced by a further complex array of troughs moving up from the SW later in the weekend.

 

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

 

GEM GEM this morning looks equally changeable in sequence this morning with a spell of breezy and changeable weather with wind and rain at times lasting through to the start of next week when drier and warmer weather feeds North over the UK from the South as High pressure builds. The second half of the period then looks set fair with some fine and possibly very summery conditions especially across the North and West though a chilly NE breeze is shown to affect the South on this run.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

 

NAVGEM NAVGEM also shows the changeable and breezy conditions later this week lasting through the weekend and start of next week before things improve slowly across the South as High pressure is shown not far away to the South of the UK by the end of the run, restricting windier and continuing changeable conditions more towards the North only.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

 

ECM ECM shows a similar theme to the rest as the changeable period lasts through to a weeks time before High pressure builds across the UK from the South from the middle of next week with increasingly warm, dry and sunny conditions for many to end the period.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night shows a broad belt of High pressure likely to lie close to the UK in 10 days time with the Jet Stream well away to the NW with likely fine and warm weather across much of the UK as a result.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

 

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend shown across the models this morning is for warm and settled weather under High pressure  in a week or so time.

 

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.7 pts followed by UKM at 95.8 pts and GFS at 95.3. At 5 days ECM  leads UKMO with 86.9 over UKMO's 82.9 pts with GFS at 82.1. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 52.6 over 46.2. Then at Day 10 ECM remains slightly ahead of GFS at 30.3 pts to 28.4 pts.

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png 

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig

 

 

MY THOUGHTS The main theme of the models this morning is the change in the weather that looks likely to develop next week as nearly all models support an up and coming period of changeable weather with rain and showers being replaced by something much more like early Summer later next week. We have another day or two of benign weather under a slack NW flow before falling pressure from the West and North feeds some troughs across the UK with rain and then showers later this week. Then over the weekend a further Low to the NW will drive more rain bearing fronts NE over the weekend but it's behind these that conditions look like improving, first in the South over the early days of next week and then more widely as High pressure becomes much more prolific for all. Much of the output well supported by the ensembles indicate that a period of fine and warm or very warm weather is likely as we enter further into June although the risk of a few thundery showers across the South is also a possibility later. So all in all reasons to be optimistic that the UK could see some summery weather soon with the rains of the coming 4-5 days giving ideal growing conditions for many in the coming weeks as temperatures at last look like reaching the 20'C regularly from the middle of next week.

 

Next update from 08:00 Wednesday May 27th 2015

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 00z shows the transition from unsettled to settled taking place during the middle of next week with high pressure building in. I think we are all in for a very summery spell beyond T+168 hours.

Edited May 26, 2015 by Frosty.

[Summer Sun]

ECM ens maintains this growing trend towards a more settled spell developing next week

 

 

Precipitation charts show things turning a lot drier from mid next week, though some light rain could still be around in places

 

 

Mean surface temperature on the up as well

 

Edited May 26, 2015 by Summer Sun

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 00z mean looks superb between early and mid June with high pressure domination and temperatures soaring into the low to mid 20's celsius. The northwest of the UK has had a poor spring compared to the south and east but from the second half of next week onwards it looks like a nationwide warmer and settled spell which is great news for the majority of us on here.

Edited May 26, 2015 by Frosty.

[coldcomfort]

Great to see continued signs of an improvement in the longer term outlook, but the inescapable fact is we are still 8-9 days away from said change and there looks like being plenty of indifferent weather around during the interim. 

 

Once it's inside 144hrs I might start to get really interested, but until then I'm sticking with cautious optimism

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Really liking the agreement with the models pointing towards a possible flaming June to kick start the summer.

Still going to wait until the reliable timeframe however before I really ramp my hopes up!

About time we saw a change from this cool, drab northwesterly that has plagued us all throughout May.

[Frosty.]

The GFS 6z really hots up and becomes very humid during FI with temperatures into the low to mid 80's F as we import continental conditions into the UK with an airmass sourced from north Africa / Spain, there is a thundery breakdown and then the Azores high looks like it would start to build in again. The signs are increasingly good for a nationwide spell of warmth and high pressure from mid / late next week onwards.

[legritter]

The GFS 6z really hots up and becomes very humid during FI with temperatures into the low to mid 80's F as we import continental conditions into the UK with an airmass sourced from north Africa / Spain, there is a thundery breakdown and then the Azores high looks like it would start to build in again. The signs are increasingly good for a nationwide spell of warmth and high pressure from mid / late next week onwards.

Yes todays charts certainly giving more reasons to be cheerfull about .

i,m still sat on the fence but i,m becoming more confident as all the big players are now singing together .

just waiting now for certain headlines to appear ,but its great that we have our own weather watchers and a big thank you to those who regularly post on here ,Crack open a STella on ice we may all need it soon ,but some cool wet weather first ,cheers gang .

[mushymanrob]

tbh, although the signs are good, arguably very good for some high pressure dominance (with sun/warmth/heat) later next week.... it is not cast in stone. as you know, i have followed johns lead using the noaa anomaly charts. i like the gradual evolution over the past few days (as previous posts have highlighted) and they are now lending support to the gfs fi pressure build.

but

its not a dead cert, things could still change, but if the indications are still there by the weekend, ill be much more confident!

[Polar Maritime]

The 6z really turns the heat up into week 2 of June, Touching 31c  Hot! And good ingredients for Thunderstorms. 

A settled spell is well and truly on the way from the back end of the 1st week of June. As ever the Devil will be in the detail..  

 

Edited May 26, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[Frosty.]

The models so far today are all showing a big change to warmer and settled conditions spreading from the south during the second half of next week onwards, this is now reinforced by another very encouraging met office update which continues to firm up on a warm anticyclonic outlook and also very warm and humid at times, especially in the south with a chance of thundery outbreaks pushing up from the continent.

[knocker]

Looking at the latest anomalies I would say the HP is pretty much nailed for next week but forecasting  very high temps, convective outbreaks and precipitation amounts requires an expertise that even Mystic Meg doesn't possess and pretty pointless. Best guess scenario

Chart weatherbell

Edited May 26, 2015 by knocker

[Scorcher]

The 6z really turns the heat up into week 2 of June, Touching 31c  Hot! And good ingredients for Thunderstorms. 

A settled spell is well and truly on the way from the back end of the 1st week of June. As ever the Devil will be in the detail..  

 

 

That really is a dream setup PM, but it is a long way off. Even in the NW we could get up to 30C in such a setup. Not often that Manchester sees 30C outside of July or August. As much as I want that to come off, the details will no doubt change a lot closer to the time. What does seem likely though is that there will be a major warm up next week, with an end to the current rubbish from the NW!

[Summer Sun]

WOW!!

 

 

I'll Bank those charts

 

Edited May 26, 2015 by Summer Sun

[DR(S)NO]

I'm tempted to say that I'll eat my hat if this comes off ...especially as it's 2 weeks away.

BUT you never know....the continent is hotting up nicely.

Instead I'll say.......

[Lincstim]

Hey folks

Well it's that time of year again for me !

Festival season

How are the charts looking for June 6th

Appreciate its still some time away but hoping for dry weather

[Polar Maritime]

A few post's have been moved here https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82655-model-banter-moans-and-ramps-springsummer-2015/page-14#entry3205751 

 

Please continue to use this thread to discuss what the Models are actually showing. It is not a competition with the METO or members alike. 

 

Many Thanks, PM. 

Edited May 26, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[Polar Maritime]

Before the settling down the GFS shows a pretty deep system sweep down from the N/W for the 1st day of Summer, With severe gales crossing Northern England. Aided by a strong Jet..

 

Edited May 26, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[I remember Atlantic 252]

WOW!!

 

 

I'll Bank those charts

 

 

deepest FI! i expect when that comes to be more low pressure dominated

[Polar Maritime]

Care to explain why given the current output, And the GFS has a Westerly bias in low resolution you expect the UK to be in more Low Pressure dominated pattern ?

Edited May 26, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[049balt]

A few post's have been moved here https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82655-model-banter-moans-and-ramps-springsummer-2015/page-14#entry3205751 

 

Please continue to use this thread to discuss what the Models are actually showing. It is not a competition with the METO or members alike. 

 

Many Thanks, PM. 

Just having a bit of fun, Boss.

 

Before the settling down the GFS shows a pretty deep system sweep down from the N/W for the 1st day of Summer, With severe gales crossing Northern England. Aided by a strong Jet..

 

 

Yes, some real misery to come to round off a terrible May.

[Polar Maritime]

Just having a bit of fun, Boss.

Yes, some real misery to come to round off a terrible May.

 

Just keep it in the banter thread 

 

Yes something to keep an eye on to round Spring off as we enter Summer, For which has been very normal round these parts.. Im sure such detail will change given the time-scale. But interesting all the same to see how this is model'd over the coming days.

Edited May 26, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[knocker]

Everything seems on track with HP in position. Temps around average 2-7th June.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/