Model Output Discussion - 3rd May Onwards 00z--->

[coldcomfort]

The 00 ECM is indeed a gem, but I think we all know it's just as unlikely as the GFS is to verify as shown post 144hrs. My guess is we will probably end up with some sort of hybrid of the two, whereby after a couple of decent days nationwide the north enjoys the best of the dry, settled weather, whilst thundery rain/showers and cooler conditions return to the south.

Edited May 29, 2015 by coldcomfort

[Polar Maritime]

The 00 ECM is indeed a gem, but I think we all know it's just as unlikely as the GFS is to verify as shown post 144hrs. My guess is we will probably end up with some sort of hybrid of the two, whereby after a couple of decent days nationwide the north enjoys the best of the dry, settled weather, whilst thundery rain/showers and cooler conditions return to the south.

 

I agree there, On the other side of the coin it could be even hotter than currently model'd.

[coldcomfort]

I agree there, On the other side of the coin it could be even hotter than currently model'd.

I'd love to think so PM, but I'd say that's the rank outsider as things currently stand.

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON FRIDAY MAY 29TH 2015.

 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A cold front will cross Southern and Eastern Britain today followed by a NW flow later, showery in the North.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif 

 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable, windy and cool at first then drier, warmer and sunnier for all later.

 

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows a strong Jet flow undulating across the UK for the next 3-4 days before the flow shifts slowly towards the NW of the UK blowing in a NE direction and later still becoming weak and broken in pattern well away to the NW of the UK. 

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today shows Low pressure from off the Atlantic well in control of the UK weather for the enxt 3-4 days or so bringing rain and showers to all areas in cool and windy conditions. Then the weather improves from the South later as pressure builds North. Then pressure becomes High to the North of the UK but it isn't long before Low pressure eases up from Southern Europe to affect Southern Britain through Week 2 with warm and humid conditions and thundery rain ir showers widely across the South later.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif 

 

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control not available at time of issue this morning.

 

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters not available this morning at time of issue.

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

 

UKMO UKMO this morning is rather disappointing in that it shows Low pressure remaining in control well into the middle of next week with a centre over us early in the week and then to the NW later keeping rain and showers going for many under Atlantic winds from a SW quarter with the most rainfall and blustery conditions becoming more restricted towards the NW by the end of the week.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show no real evidence of much of an improvement in the offing even at day 5 with a concoction of troughs and Low pressure to the North and NW of the UK continuing to drive bands of rain and showers across the UK in generally cool conditions for the time of year.

 

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

 

GEM GEM today follows a GFS type theme in showing better weather appearing across the UK later next week following a wet and cool, windy period earlier in the week. The improvement in weather in terms of dry weather proves short-lived across the South as the warm and humid air developing then and falling pressure triggers thundery showers or rain at times over the second weekend.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

 

NAVGEM NAVGEM looks closer to UKMO in it's theme maintaining a weakness to the NW of the UK a week from now and although much weaker than currently enough influence from this could give rise to occasional rain still especially to the NW whereas Southern Britain become drier and warmer with increasing humidities.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

 

ECM ECM looks reasonably encouraging this morning as it replaces the current cool and unsettled period with Low pressure close by with High pressure building to the East and NE of Britain in the second half of the run with attendant fine and  warm if breezy weather for many but with an increasing risk of thundery showers in the South and SW as pressure falls over Biscay.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart  from last night maintains a ridge of High pressure across the UK from the SW maintaining largely fine, warm and dry conditions for many by then.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

 

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend for better weather a week from now remains but with an increasing trend towards possible thundery weather across the South later.

 

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.6 pts followed by UKM at 95.5 pts and GFS at 95.1. At 5 days ECM  leads UKMO with 86.4 over UKMO's 82.4 pts with GFS at 82.0. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 51.3 over 44.1. Then at Day 10 ECM remains slightly ahead of GFS at 30.2 pts to 23.9 pts.

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png 

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig

 

 

MY THOUGHTS The models continue to indicate an improvement on the way probably from the middle of next week. UKMO does look a bit concerning on it's day 6 chart and it would be nice to have it on board of the main camp of showing High pressure building up from the South later next week bringing some much needed proper summer warmth and humidity. That humidity could be a problem though as there is increasing support for thundery low pressure to edge up from Europe later in the period with thundery rain and showers affecting Southern Britain later. We must not of course forget that we have a lot of weather to get through first in the shape of cool and windy conditions with rain and showers at times as Low pressure streams in off the Atlantic along with attendant active fronts. However, with a weakening Jet flow later next week and a repositioning of it to a point well NW of the UK things should improve markedly from those of present and if the price to pay for some real Summer warmth is some thundery outbreaks I think many will take that as long as any Easterly drift crossing the North Sea restricts the amount of low cloud onto eastern coasts to the coast itself.

 

Next update from 08:00 Saturday May 30th 2015

[Summer Sun]

After showing the high edging up yesterday afternoon UKMO has shifted it south again this morning

 

 

GFS shows quite a bit of rain for some and with the temperature starting to rise it could turn increasingly humid with thundery rain as low pressure edges up from continental Europe

 

Day 6

 

 

Day 8

 

 

Day 10

 

Edited May 29, 2015 by Summer Sun

[gottolovethisweather]

I'm taking cold comfort from some of the above member's posts, although something's up in global terms that the impending medium to long-term weather pattern will not be frosty and/or sourced from a polar maritime region. If the captain (UKMO) says there might be a shortwave trough in there come the shorter term outputs, then I wouldn't knock it as that might well be the case. There are more reds in terms of colours showing up on the upper air charts as the Summer sunshine season encroaches. I don't forsee any blue armies of cooler colours invading except for perhaps the far North and West occasionally. 

 

Potential BBQ weather for those under the strongest influence of the HP cells and when the heat builds a storm might well interrupt proceedings, what more could one want. FWIW, I have a feeling for a very warm, borderline hot largely dry June with only brief periods of Thundery rain around, time will tell. 

Edited May 29, 2015 by gottolovethisweather

[Captain Shortwave]

ECM ens

 

Certainly some more ensemble members going for something similar to the last couple of ECM operationals with high pressure setting up to the east/north east of the UK with low pressure trying to develop to the south/south west of the UK.

[ANYWEATHER]

Morning all. Well, Well. We are now perhaps seeing a pattern emerging now away from the hysteria of a high pressure countrywide settled spell. Pressure does look like building in some sort later next week, but it really is a messy progression. The overall theme from the latest output shows a warm up for all later next week, but with low pressure developing towards the southern half of the uk with thundery rain and unsettled conditions. If I were to stick my neck out , if the theme of the latest output is to be believed, it will the northern half of Scotland that would enjoy the more settled ,Summery conditions, unfortunately the greater part of the Uks population would not unfortunately. A lot to go before we get there though, but something interesting to watch nonetheless!

[knocker]

Looking at this mornings anomalies there doesn't appear to be any stumbling block to the evolution of the HP at the end of next week, At Friday midnight both the GEFS and ECM have a trough running to the west of the UK. The latter makes slightly more of it and thus pushing the HP build from the south rather more to the SE. A possibility that the NW of Scotland could come briefly under the influence of this.

 

Moving on to Monday has HP over the UK with a weak upper trough to the west with a very slack low pressure area to the south west. How far this will bring a convective influence to the south of the UK is up for grabs as the ext. period shows a slight inclination to adjust the HP a tad east and thus increasing the possibility of this.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

 

[summer blizzard]

Beauty of a Euro run.. Stinker of a GFS..

 

 

[Lincstim]

With my festival on the Saturday 6th June how are we looking for North Lincs

Appreciate this is a discussion on models but with the day getting closer the nerves are setting in and I really hope it's not a wash out

Many thanks

[William of Walworth]

I'm inclined to think there's at least a possibility that future runs could revert again to building more strongly the High Pressure build (still) progged for late next week/next weekend.

 

Given that most of the anomolies seem to remain broadly positive (?), I think it would be foolish to write off this possibility. 

 

As for North Lincs next Saturday (6th June), I'd advise LincsTim to keep checking over future days, because there will always be changes in positioning and detail. I'll be in Cambridge for my festival on Sat 6th, and I think a washout remains pretty unlikely -- far better odds on the reverse I'd say. Although I do appreciate that further North than Cambridge things could well be more uncertain.

 

My biggest hope(cast!)  is that UKMO decides to make the trough shown to be nearer by in their most recent models retreat further N/NW, and that ECM is at least broadly correct. Plenty of time to go yet.

Edited May 29, 2015 by William of Walworth

[coldcomfort]

Seems to me summer blizzard that the ecm wants more the high pressure in charge, wheras the gfs isn't as enthusiastic to build it as indicated by the 8-10 day mean chart:

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

 

Given the recent record I'd say ecm are the most accurate on this. 

Let's hope so, because the 06 GFS is another 'jam tomorrow' run....actually, make that 'the day after tomorrow', with any robust rise of pressure now back outside the 240hr range.  

[mountain shadow]

Another day on, and I remain unconvinced that a warm/hot dry spell is on the way. No sign of it on the UKmet and the GFS 6z is awful, hardly building in the high pressure at all. Yes, the ECM is great but out on its own.

 

As for the anomaly charts, the dry stuff seems to get pushed back day by day. First it was the 2nd of June, then the 3rd, now we're out to the 4th/5th.

[knocker]

Let's hope so, because the 06 GFS is another 'jam tomorrow' run....actually, make that 'the day after tomorrow', with any robust rise of pressure now back outside the 240hr range.  

 

Really?

Edited May 29, 2015 by knocker

[mushymanrob]

 

. 

For Rob, here are the NOAA anomalies

6-10 day mean.gif 8-14 day mean.gif

 

cheers

see, to me they dont scream 'large anticyclone' sat over the uk, as many of the ops have suggested. whilst high pressure will be around and in charge, theres support for that iberian/biscay low which the ecm in particular shows. to me its looking abit messy, where id sooner have the high being a strong feature.

but thats a week off yet, and of course theres time for change, and im whittling about the detail when something warmer/anticyclonic controled is pretty much in the bag.

 

Firstly Rob, I said at the time of posting I'd not seen the 00 ECM. Secondly UKMO at 144hrs shows little if no pressure build, in fact we have an Atlantic LP and it's associated frontal troughs moving in and thirdly, yes GFS is warmer, but LP is shown as the dominate feature across the south in particular after the 4th.  

 

but youre taking one ukmo chart in isolation. viewing the previous frames youll see that pressure rises from the south, pretty much in line with what the ops are showing. its uncertain just how the evolution will occur...some ops suggest the first pressure build will fail to take control but a second one will. others suggest itll be more straight foreward. in short...the ukmo @144 doesnt worry me one bit.

yep, the low to the south is perfect, as the ecm shows, view the 'uppers' (the 850 temps) and between the high to our northeast, low to our southwest, we get a draw off a hot continent. looking like our first thundery potential of the summer . the 06z gfs also has the hot uppers over us by next friday, followed by an azores high extension across the uk .

id suggest that theres a real good indication that we will get something much warmer/summer like, even if its not clear blue sunny skies and heat. ALL indications point to a summery spell, even hot, its just the detail thats uncertain.

[Captain Shortwave]

There is hardly any point taking the GFS at day 7/8 onwards as gospel as it has thrown out a different outcome each time.

 

The ECM has shown the same idea (differences over the UK with respect to the movement of the shallow low developing over Iberian, but the trend of a strong ridge to the East/north east of the UK with very warm or even hot weather is there). At this point if the ECM can throw the same solution out tonight then maybe it might be worth taking seriously, especially as the ECM ensemble suite has move significantly to the ECM op solution this morning.

 

Worth noting the GFS 06z still gets temperatures to hit 80F by the end of the week, though it is disappointing from the north Midlands northwards. At this moment though given the trends over the past 24 hours, I would be sceptical of any evolution which steam rolls the longwave pattern eastwards in the way the 06z GFS shows.

Edited May 29, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[Yarmy]

Really?

 

Nicely placed to drag sub-zero 850hpa temps into Ireland.

 

 

The 6z is a poor run, there's no doubt about that, but the only certainty is that it will be wrong at that range. My money (and hope) is on the ECM.

[mushymanrob]

Another day on, and I remain unconvinced that a warm/hot dry spell is on the way. No sign of it on the UKmet and the GFS 6z is awful, hardly building in the high pressure at all. Yes, the ECM is great but out on its own.

 

As for the anomaly charts, the dry stuff seems to get pushed back day by day. First it was the 2nd of June, then the 3rd, now we're out to the 4th/5th.

 

id suggest that a warm spell is certainly on the way... whether its dry or not is immaterial.

the gfs 6z is awful?... for cold lovers yes! it shows quite clearly a verey warm/hot spell later next week, before a thundery breakdown before pressure rises again.

(connection working)

thats a damn good run! a lot of heat/warmth, dry, sunny weather... this would be far better then many recent early junes weve had... to quote frosty... BANK!

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 6z is not a poor run, there is plenty of warm and very warm sunny weather but also some thundery rain at times with higher humidity..as mushy said..B A N K

Edited May 29, 2015 by Frosty.

[knocker]

Nicely placed to drag sub-zero 850hpa temps into Ireland.

 

 

 

The 6z is a poor run, there's no doubt about that, but the only certainty is that it will be wrong at that range. My money (and hope) is on the ECM.

 

I only posted that chart in response to this

 

 

any robust rise of pressure now back outside the 240hr range.

 

I'm afraid I find it rather futile obsessing over every six hour ops run.

[mountain shadow]

id suggest that a warm spell is certainly on the way... whether its dry or not is immaterial.

 

Well, we can certainly disagree on that. Cold rain or warm rain is still rain.

 

The 6z is not a good run with the HP pushed even further back. I'm not saying that HP won't rule the roost from next weekend but there is still no absolute certainty in it with divergent model output. Maybe tonight's 12z will bring a better consencus.

[bluearmy]

Guess the lack of warmth through may has affected some of you.

'Chill out' and wait for the warmth to arrive. Like I said before, no guarantee of prolonged settled conditions but at least any rain will be warm - the difference in the feel once we get to the back end of next week will be stark

[049balt]

Our weather will undergo a significant change next week, a move that will take us,( here in the North West) from Winter straight into Summer, the models seem to be arguing on the finer details but June looks very good indeed, especially in the Northwest.

[mushymanrob]

Well, we can certainly disagree on that. Cold rain or warm rain is still rain.

 

The 6z is not a good run with the HP pushed even further back. I'm not saying that HP won't rule the roost from next weekend but there is still no absolute certainty in it with divergent model output. Maybe tonight's 12z will bring a better consencus.

 

i dont get why it 'is not a good run'...  theres a lot of dry sunny warm weather on offer.