Model Output Discussion - 3rd May Onwards 00z--->

[Cloud 10]

A big change in weather type for the end of the week if the ECM is correct,with cool Westerlies being replaced by a warm flow from the South-East within a couple of days.

 

wednesday..  friday..

 

 

An unusually fast change in the synoptic pattern.

[Captain Shortwave]

Well the trend is maintain, it does seem plausible that the first weekend of the meteorological summer could see 30C reached on both Saturday and Sunday if the GFS/ECM are correct. The risk of thunder downpours will be highly dependent on how close to the UK the Iberian/Biscay low gets, though I suspect isolated storms would break out due to the heat anyway over the UK.

[summer blizzard]

Very hot period coming up but also very thundery in all probability. 

 

[IanR]

just looked on the bbc 7 day ahead forcast on their weather homepage and there is no temp higher than 18c for the run upto next saturaday , and friday shows a grey cloud symbol with one drop coming out (drizzle?)  lol,        

[mountain shadow]

Finally agreement across the model output for a warm/hot and potentially drier spell(thunderstorm potential aside) starting towards the end of this week.

 

BBQ weekend next weekend??

[Gibby]

Just like to say Thank you to GIbby for ALL the time and effort he puts in consistently with his reports of models. If I am in a rush and want a catch up then they are the perfect read. Cheers buddy.

 

Thanks for those kind words.

[Summer Sun]

Dew points looking pretty high which will make it feel increasingly humid with the day time temperatures pushing to around 30c for some

 

 

Given the heat and likely increasing humidity any rain coming up from mainland Europe could lead to some big thunderstorms

Edited May 30, 2015 by Summer Sun

[049balt]

More damn rain.

 

http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.html

[Summer Sun]

More damn rain.

 

http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.html

 

Those charts basically follow the Op runs from GFS and change with every run

 

This is day 6 north west Scotland by far the wettest at this stage and the SE the driest

 

 

Anything beyond this range should be taken with caution

Edited May 30, 2015 by Summer Sun

[picog]

More damn rain.

 

http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.html

Normal or dry weather away from Ireland the NW of Britain

[049balt]

Normal or dry weather away from Ireland the NW of Britain

Exactly.

Edited May 30, 2015 by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on.

[Polar Maritime]

Can we please continue to discuss what the 'Models Outputs' are showing in here please, There are other threads available for media forecast and moans/ramps.

 

Many Thanks, PM

[Captain Shortwave]

The ensembles are certainly supporting a potentially hot period next weekend.

ECM

 

GFS

 

GEM

 

Heights centred over Germany with a south to south easterly flow. It doesn't get much better for that if you want some heat and the potential for thunderstorms.

[049balt]

The models are really struggling to pin down the position of the High, where pressure falls in the heat we are likely to get thunder storms, maybe that explains the wet forecasts.

[Polar Maritime]

Yes some very promising/strong signals from all models this morning for a warm/very warm and potentially hot spell to develop by the end of next week. As Cap't rightly puts with all the ingredients for some powerful thunderstorms. Very interesting model watching coming up over the next few days as they firm up on detail. 

[coldcomfort]

Yes some very promising/strong signals from all models this morning for a warm/very warm and potentially hot spell to develop by the end of next week. As Cap't rightly puts with all the ingredients for some powerful thunderstorms. Very interesting model watching coming up over the next few days as they firm up on detail. 

Indeed PM....much more consistency in the overall output across the last 24-36hrs and with the changes now getting into the reliable timeframe my possible has been upgraded to probable. Exactly how things will manifest themselves however remains rather unclear, but we do at least look in line for some long overdue warmth if not heat, so even in the rain it shouldn't feel particularly unpleasant. 

[knocker]

Indeed PM....much more consistency in the overall output across the last 24-36hrs and with the changes now getting into the reliable timeframe my possible has been upgraded to probable. Exactly how things will manifest themselves however remains rather unclear, but we do at least look in line for some long overdue warmth if not heat, so even in the rain it shouldn't feel particularly unpleasant. 

 

I don't see how you can say that when the models have been consistently postulating the pattern change for weeks and imho they have done a pretty good job. The detail always comes down to the shorter time frame. Watching every ops run whilst ignoring the evolution of the upper air analysis creates the impression of mayhem which actually doesn't exist.

Edited May 30, 2015 by knocker

[draztik]

The nationwide heatwave is no more on the gfs 6z, more pleasant and realistic temps now being projected

Sunday 7th

Comparing with the earlier 0z, this is quite the difference, irrespective of timeframe.

0z Sunday 7

Edited May 30, 2015 by draztik

[Winter Cold]

Yes, just as last night the GFS was well above its ensembles, it was continuing this morning on the 0z. I think a lot of people on here just look at the runs and not the whole picture. I posted the difference but no one responded.The mean still doesnt breach 20c for London right the way through the 0z run aswell. Its hardly ever going to end up as good as the last few GFS runs. Dont forget this is the equivalent of hitting the jackpot with a cold snap in winter and they always get watered down. Likely case is this plume does aswell.

 

As i said last night, the GEFS are a useless tool if they under-predict temps by 10c, which of course they dont.

[bluearmy]

Yes, just as last night the GFS was well above its ensembles, it was continuing this morning on the 0z. I think a lot of people on here just look at the runs and not the whole picture. I posted the difference but no one responded.The mean still doesnt breach 20c for London right the way through the 0z run aswell. Its hardly ever going to end up as good as the last few GFS runs. Dont forget this is the equivalent of hitting the jackpot with a cold snap in winter and they always get watered down. Likely case is this plume does aswell.

 

As i said last night, the GEFS are a useless tool if they under-predict temps by 10c, which of course they dont.

 

its the UK - three fine days and a thunderstorm. at least one hot day before the thorms arrive. potential for rinse and repeat or it may indeed hang on with the breakdown held west. 

 

the ens give the broad pattern. the ops will then pick up the nuances. with the block centred germany, we arent going to be in the 'safe zone' for sustained settled but we are in the best zone for heat and humidity.

[Captain Shortwave]

The nationwide heatwave is no more on the gfs 6z, more pleasant and realistic temps now being projected

Sunday 7th

Comparing with the earlier 0z, this is quite the difference, irrespective of timeframe.

0z Sunday 7

Interestingly, the 06z GFS operational disagrees with your statement.

 

Of course you point is perfectly valid if you don't like Saturdays 

The 06z GFS does the same thing that the 06z GFS run did yesterday, simply blasts the pattern east by several hundred miles. At this point unless the GFS or any other model can replicate this Atlantic ridge then the run shouldn't be taken seriously Also the earlier charts are shouting a cut-off low scenario over the Iberia/Biscay region, so it would be a surprise if the GFS was correct there and has no low height anomaly in that region whatsoever.

Edited May 30, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[coldcomfort]

I don't see how you can say that when the models have been consistently postulating the pattern change for weeks and imho they have done a pretty good job. The detail always comes down to the shorter time frame. Watching every ops run whilst ignoring the evolution of the upper air analysis creates the impression of mayhem which actually doesn't exist.

I don't see how you can say that when any change is still yet to happen, indeed if it all goes **** up from here history will show them to have done an abysmal job, so best not get too far ahead of ourselves even now. Up until yesterday UKMO were not fully onboard at 144hrs re the pressure rise and 24hrs before that they were positively against it, hence my increased optimism this morning.

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 6z mean is perfect, high pressure building in and becoming warm / very warm. The MO outlook is superb with high temperatures and lots of sunshine and a growing chance of thundery weather at times in the south where it becomes very warm / hot and humid. Once the pattern change arrives, it looks set to become entrenched and is unlikely to be displaced until sometime in July, who knows, it may last longer. I hope it does

[draztik]

 

Of course you point is perfectly valid if you don't like Saturdays 

The 06z GFS does the same thing that the 06z GFS run did yesterday, simply blasts the pattern east by several hundred miles. At this point unless the GFS or any other model can replicate this Atlantic ridge then the run shouldn't be taken seriously Also the earlier charts are shouting a cut-off low scenario over the Iberia/Biscay region, so it would be a surprise if the GFS was correct there and has no low height anomaly in that region whatsoever.

 

eh? when did one day make a summer? or a heatwave?

The GFS 6z shows just that... a one day hot event. no spell! far from it.

We tend to get carried away, and it continues....

obviously more runs needed, but plumes are always projected in this way, then as time progresses are considerably watered down. 

The GFS 6z is more inline with its own ensemble mean, while the 0Z and others were complete outliers. Just as the ecm op has been shown to be an outlier.

 

the mean for the chart you flag, keeps reality afloat. 

Edited May 30, 2015 by draztik

[Methuselah]

I think that someone might be suffering from the old 'one chart, one run' syndrome. Not to worry - it's an easy enough trap to fall into.