Model Output Discussion - 3rd May Onwards 00z--->

[Summer Sun]

UKMO doesn't have the low on Friday like GFS so temps in the south could still reach the mid 20's and high teens further north

 

Edited May 31, 2015 by Summer Sun

[Scorcher]

The GFS really is all over the place at the moment...huge swings between runs while the other models remain relatively consistent. Just unfortunate it's always the first model to produce runs in the evening. It has always been biased towards cool, zonal unsettled weather in any case!

[Polar Maritime]

The GFS really is all over the place at the moment...huge swings between runs while the other models remain relatively consistent. Just unfortunate it's always the first model to produce runs in the evening. It has always been biased towards cool, zonal unsettled weather in any case!

A very valid point, The models in my view are still getting a grips with the exact location of the High as we would expect during the very early signs of a pattern change and the nature of it. With it still being a week out, I still expect wild swings over the coming few days reg detail, As we have seen over the last 2 days.

Edited May 31, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[Milhouse]

Well the GFS is back showing 30c over southern England, but this time next Tuesday. But as the 6z showed just 13c for the same day im not going to take it seriously. Im happy though that the models are indicating the potential for some heat to occur at some point during the first part of June.

[Man With Beard]

Just seen the MetO extended outlook and Beeb week ahead and the MetO are having none of this downgrade.

They are still VERY confident of a hot weekend with no sign of the GFS northwesterly on Saturday.

We will see who is correct but it will be a bit embarrassing for the MetO if GFS 06z is correct.

FWIW my money is with the MetO.

Andy

UKMO rock solid with Saturday's heat. In general, there's a lot of warm, fine weather being forecast with the odd fly in the ointment

[ANYWEATHER]

The GFS really is all over the place at the moment...huge swings between runs while the other models remain relatively consistent. Just unfortunate it's always the first model to produce runs in the evening. It has always been biased towards cool, zonal unsettled weather in any case!

If you've taken model history into account as regards potential plumes ,heatwaves  and indeed cold waves in winter, the models always, nearly always over hype these scenarios, It pushes the whole lot east generally giving our near neighbours the fun and fireworks......    

[Polar Maritime]

More detail to be taken with a bucket of salt. More swings than an adventure playground.. 

 

Edited May 31, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[Milhouse]

UKMO rock solid with Saturday's heat. In general, there's a lot of warm, fine weather being forecast with the odd fly in the ointment

 

The UKMO looks similar to the GFS for next Saturday and the GFS is indicating pleasantly warm, but no heat to speak of. Its a case of being fooled by the deep reds into thinking its going to be a warm day. The heat doesnt arrive until Monday on the GFS, but when it does it sticks around for 3 days.

[Backtrack]

Meanwhile, GFS 12Z Tulloch Bridge, Scotland:

[Polar Maritime]

Meanwhile, GFS 12Z Tulloch Bridge, Scotland:

snow.png

 

Yes and on the 1st day of Summer. Even an odd sleety affair over the highest of the Northern Pennines. But nothing of any note. The Ski Ranges are doing fantastic for the time of year.

 

Edited May 31, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[Captain Shortwave]

The UKMO would probably delivers a high of 25/26C in the south on Friday with a cold front aligned SW/NE through the centre of the country, judging by the 500mb profile. This is a better solution than the GFS at least for the south as it makes less of the trough compared to the GFS which also steams a front west to east through the UK with temperatures reaching the low twenties in the east at best. Thunder potential looks to be dwindling with any front will probably just bring a band of cloud and patchy rain for most though there could be heavier bursts at first in the west.

The following weekend at the moment looks okay on the UKMO and GFS with temperatures near or a little above normal. Still miles away at the moment though. Given the overall pattern there is a feasible chance of bringing very warm continental air up into the south from time to time.

 

Btw the GFS op was entirely predictable from its day 6 chart alone, it looks pretty much identical to the chart for Wednesday so no surprise that it tries to split the trough and build a southerly plume. That does at least suggest the chance of a second bite of the proverbial cherry.

Edited May 31, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[Summer Sun]

Early stages from ECM and at t120 its closer to GFS rather than UKMO

 

 

 

[coldcomfort]

Any warmth (let alone heat!) is conspicuous by it's absence across the next week or so according to this.... http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html

Edited May 31, 2015 by coldcomfort

[mushymanrob]

Any warmth (let alone heat!) is conspicuous by it's absence across the next week or so according to this.... http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html

Cant see it being cool/cold after wednesday, whilst it might not be silly high temps itll still be warm/average either with warm muggy uppers or fresh clear northwesterlies which will feel great in the strong sun.

Im not disheartened, plenty of warmer weather on offer

[bluearmy]

So what has changed? Not a great deal. We have simply lost the Iberian upper trough enticing a proper system to establish down there and drive a plume ahead of it. the low ejects ne in the general flow of the jet and the heat is flattened to our south as will always happen without any decent amplification. I suspect gfs is currently too miserable on this system and it will be further west and shallower. Instead of heat, we get pleasant early summer temps and plenty of sunshine with it. Some decaying frontal systems crossing sw to ne.

Will the following episode dig the trough and drag some heat up?

[coldcomfort]

So what has changed? Not a great deal. We have simply lost the Iberian upper trough enticing a proper system to establish down there and drive a plume ahead of it. the low ejects ne in the general flow of the jet and the heat is flattened to our south as will always happen without any decent amplification. I suspect gfs is currently too miserable on this system and it will be further west and shallower. Instead of heat, we get pleasant early summer temps and plenty of sunshine with it. Some decaying frontal systems crossing sw to ne.

Will the following episode dig the trough and drag some heat up?

ECM will suggest just that, whether we should fall for it though is another matter entirely. Once bitten twice shy might be the term, but we've all been bitten far more times than we care to remember on here, both with Beasterlies and Iberian heat pumps....taking nothing as read once again.

[Scorcher]

I find all the negativity very odd- things are still looking up. Okay the spectacular temperatures that were showing for the weekend a couple of days back may no longer happen, but on the flip side it looks like we will finally get some warmish settled days, with the current dross on the way out after tomorrow.

 

There are also hints from the GFS and also the ECM in the latter stages that we may have another opportunity for warmer conditions into week 2 as the high sets up in a more favourable position

[Captain Shortwave]

The ECM agrees with the GFS in simply recycling the attempted Euro ridge pattern from the end of the coming week, will round 2 deliver the goods?

 

UKMO the best of the bunch with the low further north at the end of the week and holds the warmth further north compared to the other models.

[049balt]

The ECM agrees with the GFS in simply recycling the attempted Euro ridge pattern from the end of the coming week, will round 2 deliver the goods?

 

UKMO the best of the bunch with the low further north at the end of the week and holds the warmth further north compared to the other models.

 

It's not that bad once we get this bloody awful Monday behind us, high pressure will dominate but just normal temps. especially to begin with.

 

[ANYWEATHER]

The Summer roller coaster has just Begun...!  If you look at the ecm and gfs outlook tonight it really is a mess, just like a three ring circus with more clowns you can swing a stick too   Read between the lines or isobars theres no really settled spell of weather on the way, if this trend continues then we will see lots of rain particularly for southern Britain ,perhaps thunderstorms too with some short lived  plume warmth, but the plume predicted for the end of the week ,looks like its..........

Edited May 31, 2015 by ANYWEATHER

[William of Walworth]

So what do I see? A typical UK spell, one day of sunshine, temperatures rather good, feeling fantastic in the sunshine. Then overcast and damp the next day, no breakdown in the form of an electrial storm, followed by a usual regime of sunshine and showers for the rest of June.

People looking for a settled spell lasting more than 5 days, myself included need to remember where we live, and that here, in the worlds worst climate, if it can go wrong. It will.

Bolded bit : Do you mean for the whole of June? What's your synoptic evidence for that?

[Backtrack]

Bolded bit : Do you mean for the whole of June? What's your synoptic evidence for that?

Wasn't to be taken literally, it was more of a 'I was disheartened at the downgraded predicted summer weather I've been looking forward to for 12 months' kinda post.

[Mokidugway]

The Summer roller coaster has just Begun...!  If you look at the ecm and gfs outlook tonight it really is a mess, just like a three ring circus with more clowns you can swing a stick too   Read between the lines or isobars theres no really settled spell of weather on the way, if this trend continues then we will see lots of rain particularly for southern Britain ,perhaps thunderstorms too with some short lived  plume warmth, but the plume predicted for the end of the week ,looks like its..........

if we're cherrypicking .....

[Polar Maritime]

Warnings are out for gales tomorrow as the front passes through, The GFS has done very well at tracking this feature this past week.

 

Edited May 31, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[Captain Shortwave]

The models are hardly shouting certainty this morning, even at 4 days out.

GFS

Digs the trough further south and slower, the GFS now shows temperatures reaching the mid to high twenties in the south with thunderstorms breaking out during the evening and overnight.

 

UKMO

The model is still sending the low quickly over the top of the high with a front straddling the country with its progress southwards being rather slow.

 

GEM

This model sits between the two, it suggests a very warm day in the south eastern third of the UK on Friday. The low develops much later than the other models.

 

Beyond this the UKMO/GFS develop a ridge west of the UK, whilst the GEM keeps the battle between the hot air to the south vs the cool air from the west going with frequent pulses of hot air and thundery weather as Atlantic systems clash with the hot continental air fighting northwards, an interesting run.

 

In typical fashion, the ECM has gone AWOL this morning

Edited June 1, 2015 by Captain shortwave