Model Output Discussion - 3rd May Onwards 00z--->

[ANYWEATHER]

Both ecm and gfs show some sort of plume moving up from the south this time next week. That equates to heat and thunderstorms so I say Bring it on.       But Ive seen this so many times before, so Caution is needed if you don't wanna get disappointed !  Just to think the models were leading us up the garden path a few days ago with full blown high pressure across the nation at this time frame.....

[knocker]

Can someone please post  a chart for 10 July 2013

 

What on earth for?

 

The GEFS isn't too carried away with excess heat and I rather think others shouldn't be either. Although the longwave pattern seems okay the detail awaits verification in a few days.

Chart weatherbell

[Frosty.]

It is hard to see these predicted temps. materialise. 30c plus in early June?

If the Ecm 12z is right, with +15 plus T850 hPA surging northwards (564 dam thicknesses) we would see max temperatures of 30-32c if the weather is sunny. The Ecm and Gfs 12z show heatwave conditions this evening..really exciting charts today, hope the models keep this up.

Edited May 29, 2015 by Frosty.

[Captain Shortwave]

It is hard to see these predicted temps. materialise. 30c plus in early June?

Certainly possible, in fact 30c in the south can be achieved fairly easily from mid-may onwards.

Great ECM tonight. Whilst a long way off, that day 10 chart is a rare beast. A significant heat block over Europe which a good part of the UK is in. If the ECM verified then we would be looking at significant heatwave territory. A long way off though but the trend for a traditions Spanish plume event is gaining ground. Very July 2014 like in fact, so 30c next weekend is certainly a possibility albeit low at the moment.

Edited May 29, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[mushymanrob]

I wonder if we're looking at the same charts sometimes. The unsettled weather looks like continuing through the weekend. Yes warmer, but still wet for some. Saturday has a cold front straddling the Uk with the Atlantic fresher air behind. Only the South looks to be in the proper humid air.

 

Yes, it improves into the following week, but yet again it is delayed.

What do you expect for early june? These current predicted charts are superb! Theres not much unsettled viewing the whole runs, and i defy you or anyone to find a better start to june since 1975!

Of course thats assuming the current runs verify. But there is good concensus and anomaly chart support.

Certainly possible, in fact 30c in the south can be achieved fairly easily from mid-may onwards.

Great ECM tonight. Whilst a long way off, that day 10 chart is a rare beast. A significant heat block over Europe which a good part of the UK is in. If the ECM verified then we would be looking at significant heatwave territory. A long way off though but the trend for a traditions Spanish plume event is gaining ground. Very July 2014 like in fact, so 30c next weekend is certainly a possibility albeit low at the moment.

Indeed, we have had 28c before in may... 1978 springs to mind

[Frosty.]

i defy you or anyone to find a better start to june since 1975!

Of course thats assuming the current runs verify. But there is good concensus and anomaly chart support.

Yes mushy, Early June 1975 is a very good comparison, the current charts are even better. Exciting times to come during June, I'm sure of it.

[bluearmy]

The raw ECM data for next Saturday shows 30c in the se. This model usually understates T2maxes by a couple degrees.

This is purely to back up Karl's thoughts

[Frosty.]

The raw ECM data for next Saturday shows 30c in the se. This model usually understates T2maxes by a couple degrees.

This is purely to back up Karl's thoughts

Cheers BA Edited May 29, 2015 by Frosty.

[SW Saltire]

What do you expect for early june? These current predicted charts are superb! Theres not much unsettled viewing the whole runs, and i defy you or anyone to find a better start to june since 1975!

Of course thats assuming the current runs verify. But there is good concensus and anomaly chart support.

Indeed, we have had 28c before in may... 1978 springs to mind

Late May 2012 delivered warm weather (how warm I can't remember officially), I recorded just shy of 30c and had several 28c+ days - not official weather station so take with a pinch of salt... But still.

The extent to which conditions will be felt across the whole of the UK (particularly the North and extreme West) is still up for debate as well.

However, I very much share your optimism for the upcoming period, it will feel extra hot considering the current 12-15c weather.

Fingers crossed for clear skies and some heat (BBQs, meals outside etc etc) and maybe even some rare heat and them thunder storms...

What could go wrong?

GFS does seem a little less optimistic when compared with the UKMO so I wouldn't get the champers out just yet...

[damianslaw]

Short term more of the same disapointingly cool and unsettled in the main though tomorrow looks fair for most.

 

All models agree on a building ridge from the south come the middle of the week, this transferring northwards with lower heights developing to the SW enabling a continental feed to move in from the SE by the end of the week.

 

Lots of speculation how warm things may become, but lots of uncertainty, much will depend on cloud cover, and how close those lower heights get to the UK. The charts are not showing an easy course to a nationwide warm spell, more probably the real warmth will be locked towards the SE. I'll be pleasantly surprised if temps hit more than 30 degrees. Keep an eye on maxes over Netherlands and NE France/W Germany, if we fail to see maxes here of 30 degrees then no chance UK will see them, the air will naturally cool as it crosses the channel.

 

Still its good to see increasing signs that we will replace the cool wet weather of May for something much more settled and warmer as we move into June.

Edited May 29, 2015 by damianslaw

[Captain Shortwave]

Good support for the operational from the ECM ens

Strong Euro ridge pumping up very warm or even hot air from the continent.

 

Crazy mean 850s considering there must be some dilution.

The 15C into the south east even on the mean. Warm or very warm in the north, potentially hot in the south.

[Scorcher]

The ECM 12Z reminds me of the setup during that remarkable spell around June 18th 2000. That setup produced temperatures widely into the high 20s across England and many areas in the south exceeded 30C. 

 

[bluearmy]

with the high anomoly centred over Germany and the upper trough west of Iberia , there is little doubt that we are headed for a very warm if not hot spell. However, the chance of the Iberian low throwing thundery plumes ne from time to time seems fairly high.

[summer blizzard]

image.jpg

with the high anomoly centred over Germany and the upper trough west of Iberia , there is little doubt that we are headed for a very warm if not hot spell. However, the chance of the Iberian low throwing thundery plumes ne from time to time seems fairly high.

 

An incredibly rare setup i imagine as opposed to us joining (or missing out on) the usual swathe. Wonder how sustainable it will be.

 

.....

 

Euro is glorious and settled tonight but on it's own. All other models go for a much more humid and thundery setup.

[shaky]

latest gfs 18z!!is plume galore from next friday!!!jheeez does it look hot on that run aswell!!!

[Captain Shortwave]

Blooming heck, I need some of the stuff the GFS has had 

Temperatures into the low thirties in places

 

Cape through the roof throughout the 7-10 range.

 

Not much to say, but it was worth noting this run down. We will probably not see a run like this for a long time.

[knocker]

The GFS this morning is rushing the next systems through by Tuesday with the low swinging north of the UK before building the HP which moves away to the NE by the weekend with a slack convective LP area to the SW. Result a dry and very warm weekend

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Edited May 30, 2015 by knocker

[shaky]

gfs not backing down from the plume scenario!!infact its even better than the 18z!!Tuesdays low pressure looks like clearing away pretty quickly!!

[mushymanrob]

it doesnt get any better then this (if its hot humid thundery weather you like)

.

and the ecm follows through with more high pressure and warmth/heat building after a thundery spell



the gfs (00z) doesnt agree though, and into deep fi suggests a southerly tracking jet



but the noaa 8-14 day anomaly chart doesnt support a southerly tracking jet... (yet, anyway)



although it might evolve that way. but for now the anoms have plenty of high pressure days 6-14, which would suggest the current ecm's evolution being probably more accurate.



 

Edited May 30, 2015 by mushymanrob

[bluearmy]

That upper low near Iberia looks to be a pretty sustained feature rob. It will attract the Atlantic depressions and continue to throw up thundery spells our way. Whether these head to our west, East or slap bang over us will be dictated by the strength of the blocking and where it decides to settle itself. So the amount of settled weather we can expect is unknown but it will be warm to hot. could be drifting into a few weeks of this broad set up.

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON SATURDAY MAY 30TH 2015.

 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A weak ridge of High pressure will cross the UK from the West today followed by troughs of Low pressure moving East and NE over the UK tonight and tomorrow.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif 

 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable, windy and cool at first then drier, warmer and sunnier for all later but with the risk of thundery showers..

 

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows a strong Jet flow moving NE across the UK over the coming days. Then later next week the flow's belt shifts more towards the NW and weakens across Scotland before breaking up further by next weekend to lead to a much lighter flow ill defined and sinking well South across the Atlantic before returning to the present position towards the end of the period and strengthening somewhat again. 

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today shows strong West or SW winds over the coming 3-4 days with rain at times as Low pressure areas cross East just to the North of Scotland carrying troughs East over all parts with rain and showers at times. Conditions then improve under rising pressure as warm and humid air moves up from the South around High pressure formed to the East. However, it isn't long before the weather breaks down into thundery rain and showers in the South and West as the warmest air retreats back towards Europe and an eventual return to more changeable conditions with rain at times in SW winds under Low pressure is set up at the end of the period.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif 

 

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control today shows a similar evolution to the operational run in the first week though the breaksown to thundery weather over the South and West is less pronounced in this run. Winds do become Easterly as Low pressure resides over Europe with temperatures on the decline somewhat through the second week as winds back North-east and then Northerly as High pressure migrates out into the Atlantic again. A lot of dry weather would likely be maintained especially in the West where the warmest weather would end up being.

 

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today are a mixed bunch but favour a High pressure ridge in varying degrees of strength and position maintaining set fair conditions across the UK in relatively light winds and temperatures near or above average in the South.

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

 

UKMO UKMO this morning shows things gently improving from midweek as the strong and unstable Westerly airflow prior to this is replaced by light winds and warm temperatures across the South at least by the end of the week.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts maintain a very trough laden airflow from a Westerly point for the coming three or four days before the flow weakens across the Atlantic and pressure builds from the South across Southern Britain soon after midweek.

 

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

 

GEM GEM today shows a muted improvement later next week as pressure builds from the South along with an injection of warm and humid air. However, very quickly this is shown to breakdown as a thundery Low becomes absorbed by more unstable Atlantic air to bring cooler and changeable conditions back for a time before another attempt at more settled conditions arrives later as High pressure builds NE across the North at the end of the run.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

 

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows better weather for a time later next week with the main feature being the much better temperatures than of late especially across the South and East. It too shows a breakdown to thundery rain as a trough crosses East later next week with fresher air returning into the West for a time next weekend.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

 

ECM ECM completes the set with agreement on warm and humid conditions developing late next week as High pressure moving up from the South settles things down briefly. Low pressure is also shown to move up into Biscay and the continent in general later as High pressure drifts to the NE of the UK with humid air blowing lightly across the UK promoting thundery showers in places especially the South affecting other areas too by Day 10 as cooler fresher air arrives from the SW behind the thundery trough.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart  from last night maintains a ridge of High pressure across the UK from the SW maintaining largely humid and warm or very warm air with the potential risk of heavy showers in slack pressure gradients across the UK.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

 

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend for better weather a week from now remains but with a continuing trend towards possible thundery or more unsettled weather across the South later.

 

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.5 pts followed by UKM at 95.5 pts and GFS at 95.0. At 5 days ECM  leads UKMO with 85.9 over UKMO's 82.2 pts with GFS at 81.5. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 50.4 over 44.1. Then at Day 10 ECM remains slightly ahead of GFS at 29.9 pts to 23.1 pts.

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png 

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig

 

 

MY THOUGHTS The models remain in good support of a shift of emphasis away from cool and unsettled conditions to things considerably warmer from the middle of next week, especially across the South. I hesitste to say settled though as there is strong evidence that in a relatively short period of time a surge of humid air from the South with falling pressure will generate showers and thundery rain from the end of the week. Thereafter, things look rather more uncertain with some output showing a more unsettled theme again with Low pressure close by and rain at times which as a result would bring temperatures down to rather fresher levels again. However, having said that there is also support for High pressure to settle to the North of the UK with any unsettledness held more towards the South and even the output that suggests a return to cooler conditions late show High pressure rebuilding again after a short hiatus. Whatever happens it looks at long last that the cool and unsettled Westerly or NW pattern type of late will soon be replaced by more seasonal temperatures and a general better complexion felt by all that it is Summer. Night's should become considerably warmer than of late too and in any prolonged sunny spells between any thundery showers it should feel very warm late next week and while we may not be looking at long lasting dry conditions with wall to wall sunshine the higher temperatures between the showers should give us little cause to complain against recent standards.

 

NOTE: There will be no report from me tomorrow morning. Hopefully back on Monday morning at maybe a slightly later time than normal.

[mushymanrob]

That upper low near Iberia looks to be a pretty sustained feature rob. It will attract the Atlantic depressions and continue to throw up thundery spells our way. Whether these head to our west, East or slap bang over us will be dictated by the strength of the blocking and where it decides to settle itself. So the amount of settled weather we can expect is unknown but it will be warm to hot. could be drifting into a few weeks of this broad set up.

 

noted

[captaincroc]

Just like to say Thank you to GIbby for ALL the time and effort he puts in consistently with his reports of models. If I am in a rush and want a catch up then they are the perfect read. Cheers buddy.

[Yarmy]

The ECM is fantastic again this morning with the Biscay heat pump in full operation:

 

 

Next weekend could be spectacular.

[knocker]

That upper low near Iberia looks to be a pretty sustained feature rob. It will attract the Atlantic depressions and continue to throw up thundery spells our way. Whether these head to our west, East or slap bang over us will be dictated by the strength of the blocking and where it decides to settle itself. So the amount of settled weather we can expect is unknown but it will be warm to hot. could be drifting into a few weeks of this broad set up.

 

That's a very fair assessment. As long as we keep the weak upper tough to the west, and this morning's GEFS anomalies would suggest this likely, then the door is ajar for thundery incursions travelling N/NE. It will be interesting watching the evolution of this set up.

Edited May 30, 2015 by knocker